Archive

Author Archive

Predicting Roddy White’s New Contract Extension

July 22nd, 2014 No comments
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Roddy White

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White is up for a contract extension, and it’s potentially the last deal he could sign from an NFL team before his career is over.

Because of this, it’s likely that Roddy’s people will try to get as much money as they possibly can. At the same time, the Falcons will likely be attempting to pay the least amount of money possible given White’s age and the expected decline in production that will occur from this point forward. These two conflicting leverage points could hold up negotiations, although my expectations that they won’t be insurmountable obstacles for both parties to reach an agreement.

The issue that White faces is mainly his age. White will turn 33 in November and unless he signs an extension will be poised to become a free agent after the season. White only has to look at recent contracts signed by other receivers that were at similar ages to know that the market is not kind to older wide receivers.

In 2012, the Indianapolis Colts re-signed a then 33-year old Reggie Wayne to a three-year contract worth $17.5 million with $7.5 million guaranteed. This past offseason, a 34-year old Steve Smith signed with the Baltimore Ravens for a three-year deal worth $11.5 million with $3.5 million guaranteed. A 33-year old Anquan Boldin inked a two-year extension worth $12 million with $9 million guaranteed to remain with the San Francisco 49ers this past spring as well.

All three of those deals suggest the market value for a 33-year old wide receiver is no more than $6 million/yr. with less than $10 million in guaranteed money. Contrast that to deals signed by other wide receivers this offseason:

  • DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: 27 years old; four years, $32 million; $16 million guaranteed
  • Eric Decker, New York Jets: 27 years old; five years, $36.25 million; $15 million guaranteed
  • Golden Tate, Detroit Lions: 25 years old; five years, $31 million; $13.25 million guaranteed

White would be hard-pressed to get deals that approach those on the open market, which gives the Falcons a considerable amount of leverage.

But at the same time, it’s doubtful that the Falcons would significantly lowball White. White has been a fixture in Atlanta for a number of years, and I’m certain the team wants him to retire a Falcon, no different than recent players like Hines Ward in Pittsburgh or Donald Driver in Green Bay. The team has also made no secret their intention to give White a contract extension since last November.

Read more…

Categories: Features Tags: ,

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 8 Justin Blalock

July 21st, 2014 No comments
Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Blalock

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 8th-ranked player: offensive guard Justin Blalock.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 78/100

Last year’s rank: 10
Player Grade: 69/100
Teams he is starter: 29 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 18 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 32 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +1
Positional Bonus: +3

Blalock’s ranking increased simply from the fact that he is coming off one of the better seasons he’s had in a Falcon uniform. Blalock’s solid 2013 season probably looks better in comparison considering many of the other Falcons blockers were especially bad. But Blalock’s play in 2013 was an uptick in his play over at least the two previous seasons, where he struggled to make an impact.

At least in the early going of the season, Blalock was one of the few Falcons blockers playing at a high level. His production dipped a bit over the final month of the season, when the blocking as a whole took a significant step back. Blalock only generated one key block over the final four games, after tallying 9.5 in the previous 12. He also gave up 3.5 of his total 4.5 sacks allowed in the final fives games of the 2013 season. There were also five hurries allowed in the final three games, with 8.5 total for the season.

But Blalock should be expected to bounce back this year and play at a level comparable to his play through the first three-quarters of 2013. He should be helped by a healthy return of left tackle Sam Baker, as well as the fact that the team should have an upgrade at right guard in Jon Asamoah. Typically, NFL teams slide their protections the left, leading the center to help out the left guard moreso than the right one. With Asamoah being capable of being left on an island at right guard, that should allow Blalock more help on his side.

Read more…

Categories: Features Tags: , ,

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 9 Matt Bosher

July 21st, 2014 No comments
Josh D. Weiss-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Bosher

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 9th-ranked player: punter Matt Bosher.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 75/100

Last year’s rank: 17
Player Grade: 67/100
Teams he is starter: 23 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 23 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 23 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +5
Positional Bonus: +2

Why does Bosher rank so highly? Well, firstly he’s a really good punter. And my scoring system (linked above) doesn’t negatively effect a really good player at a low-value position like punter as other rankings might. Such a player is always going to be rated higher than an average player at a high-value position.

And secondly, I repeat that Bosher is a really good punter.

For much of his 2011 rookie season, Bosher drew considerable criticism from me for poor play. If there’s any player on the Falcons team that you’re retroactively making the argument was hurt most by the 2011 lockout, it was probably Bosher. For most of the first half of that season, he was the worst punter in the league. But by year’s end, his play had started to reach adequate levels, and hasn’t look back ever since.

Now entering his fourth year in league, Bosher is one of the premier young punters. He’s one of a handful of punters that also kick off for their respective teams. Per Pro Football Focus, Bosher had the third-lowest percentage of kickoffs returned by opposing teams, meaning that he can consistently boot touchbacks and keep teams from starting drives beyond their own 20-yard line.

He also graded among PFF’s top five punters and shined particularly with getting hang time in open field punts. His strong leg is able to help flip field position, but he can also control that booming leg with good hangtime. More often that not, breakdowns on the Falcons punt team over the past two years have been due to poor coverage or poor blocking leading to two punts blocked last season.

Bosher is still growing as a player, but he’s morphed himself into one of the team’s best players. It’s a good bet that among the 2011 draft picks, he’ll be the first one to earn a contract extension, even before wide receiver Julio Jones.

And if you needed a third reason for Bosher’s high ranking, then just go back and watch highlights of his performance against the New York Jets.

Categories: Features Tags: , ,

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 10 Jonathan Babineaux

July 21st, 2014 No comments
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Jonathan Babineaux

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 10th-ranked player: defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 74/100

Last year’s rank: 7
Player Grade: 67/100
Teams he is starter: 29 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 14 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 32 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +0
Positional Bonus: +3

While his salary may have been eclipsed by the likes of Paul Soliai and Tyson Jackson this offseason, Babineaux still remains the team’s best defensive linemen. He’s only player up front that is a steady every-down player, meaning can make plays both against the run and the pass.

The issue for Babineaux is that his play has declined each year since his breakout season in 2009. Each year, there appear to be less and less games where Babineaux’s impact along the line of scrimmage is clear. In 2012, he had that sort of impact in roughly half the games played. A year ago, that figure was virtually cut in half.

One of the possible reasons for that is simply the natural decline that comes with age. Babineaux turns 33 in October, and typically it’s around age 31 or 32 when plays of his ilk start to decline. That ilk is penetrating tackles that rely on getting upfield and being disruptive in the backfield.

But another reason for that is due to the sheer number of reps he was forced to play last year. Per premium website Pro Football Focus, Babineaux played in 87 percent of the Falcons’ defensive snaps last season. That is way too much for a player at this point in his career. That number hopefully can be reduced to under 60 percent in 2014.

Another promising thing is that Babineaux’s new three-year contract should keep him in Atlanta for the remainder of his career. None of his cap hits become prohibitive, with the highest being $3.67 million in 2015, which is still lower than any of the cap hits he’s had over the past five seasons since signing an extension in 2008. That means that as long as his production is up to par, Babineaux should have a spot on the Falcons roster.

Keeping that production up to par will require help from a stronger rotation, which the Falcons have seemingly added with the additions of Soliai and Jackson, as well as drafting Ra’Shede Hageman. Malliciah Goodman will also be a heavy factor in the mix as well. The Falcons don’t really have an excuse to overuse Babineaux in 2014, which should mean that his production could rebound back to 2012 levels if Father Time hasn’t taken too much of a toll.

Babineaux is an important piece in the Mike Nolan defense. Playing a mix of five-technique defensive end and three-technique defensive tackle, Babineaux is a versatile player that has proven to be disruptive at either spot. The latter position is probably his most natural, where Babineaux should earn more opportunities particularly if players like Hageman and Goodman can earn significant snaps as five-technique ends.

Ideally, Babineaux’s primary role will come on third downs when the Falcons will likely employ a four-man front. That way, Babineaux’s quick burst upfield can be saved for passing situations with Hageman and Goodman taking the brunt of the snaps in running situations. That would be the best way to utilize Babineaux and save him wear and tear this season.

Categories: Features Tags: , ,

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 11 Paul Soliai

July 21st, 2014 No comments

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Soliai

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 11th-ranked player: defensive tackle Paul Soliai.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 69/100

Last year’s rank: N/A
Player Grade: 63/100
Teams he is starter: 22 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 14 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 31 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +1
Positional Bonus: +3

While Soliai is a two-down player, the simple reality in the NFL is that every team needs a couple of players like that. Certain players that can be really effective against the run, something that Soliai is capable of being. It’s why Soliai could find a role with 31 other NFL teams and could start on roughly two-thirds of NFL teams because most teams still employ base personnel that is geared towards defending the run.

For the record however, I’d also like to state that I think the 3-4 nose tackle is one of the more overrated positions, at least in terms of overall value in today’s NFL. Many people believe that the 3-4 nose tackle is the essential piece to making a good 3-4 defense, but history clearly disagrees with that. While nose tackles like Vince Wilfork and Casey Hampton were great on past top New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses, respectively, it was instead ends like Richard Seymour and Aaron Smith that really were the lynchpins to both of those defenses’ successes. The same holds true today, with top 3-4 defenses usually having a dominant end (e.g. J.J. Watt, Justin Smith, Calais Campbell, Muhammad Wilkerson, etc.) rather than a dominant nose tackle (e.g. Earl Mitchell, Isaac Sopoaga, Dan Williams, Damon Harrison, etc.).

There certainly was a time when the conventional wisdom that having a good nose tackle was true, but that wisdom stems from an era of the NFL where running the ball was still the norm. In today’s NFL, most teams pull their nose tackles off the field in passing situations, which are also now the majority of plays, thus decreasing their value.

It was one of the main reasons why I wasn’t too thrilled when the Falcons elected to give Soliai a $33 million contract this offseason. While Soliai is probably one of the premier nose tackles in the league, that might not be saying as much given the aforementioned decreasing value of the position. Most NFL teams are plugging and playing with middle and late-round talent.

However, Soliai will help the Falcons beef up their run support and will be primarily tasked with keeping blockers off inside linebackers Paul Worrilow and Joplo Bartu. While that might not be as valuable as it was say a decade ago, it still holds value especially playing in a division where teams like Carolina and Tampa Bay operate run-based offenses.

Read more…

Categories: Features Tags: , ,

Atlanta Falcons Training Camp Preview 2014: Defensive Tackle

July 21st, 2014 No comments

Andrew Weber- US PRESSWIRE

Corey Peters

The Atlanta Falcons will feature more competition at the defensive tackle position in regards to their reserves since their starting lineup was solidified in the offseason by the signing of Paul Soliai.

As I explained in the write-up on the Falcons defensive ends, all signs point to the Falcons adopting more of a 3-4 schematic look in their base attack on defense this season. The addition of Soliai is a big part of that reason for he is the prototypical 3-4 nose tackle.

Big, strong and capable of absorbing double teams, Soliai gives the Falcons something they did not truly have with Corey Peters last season. Peters was capable in performing some of those roles, but was by no means the classic version of the 3-4 nose that usually weighs in above 320 pounds. Coupled with Peters’ recovery from injury, it was clear the Falcons were going to need more help at the position.

They found that in Soliai with a substantial long-term contract. If offensive tackle Jake Matthews is the jewel of the draft class, then Soliai is that for free agency based purely off his contract. And thus, it doesn’t make sense for a team to spend as much money as they did on 3-4 players like Soliai and defensive end Tyson Jackson and not utilize them in the manner that suits them best.

Soliai will start for the Falcons, but will likely be pulled off the field in most passing situations. That was the case in Miami as Soliai had a tendency to wear down over the course of games. The Falcons will need to find a way to minimize that.

A heavy rotation with Peters could be one answer, but that is dependent on his health. Peters told me himself that he is expecting to return for the regular season opener, and if that is the case then he’ll be able to earn reps replacing Soliai in passing situations.

Unlike some 3-4 teams, the Falcons will likely utilize a four-man front when they employ their nickel sub-packages on passing downs. It’s likely that the same starting lineup the team featured up front last season: Osi Umenyiora and Jonathan Massaquoi at the end spots with Peters and Jonathan Babineaux at tackle will be their go-to group. That potentially puts the team’s four best pass-rushers (minus linebacker Kroy Biermann) on the field at the same time.

Read more…

Atlanta Falcons Takeaways from Last Week – July 21, 2014

July 21st, 2014 No comments
Josh D. Weiss-US PRESSWIRE

Falcons will be essentially the Julio Jones Show in 2014

The Atlanta Falcons begin training camp later this week, signaling that the NFL offseason is over. While there are still 46 days until the regular season kicks off, it now feels like football is finally right around the corner.

One of the best things about the NFL is the unpredictability of every season. Of the three major American sports, it is the most unpredictable from year to year.

Which brings me to the Falcons and what will happen in 2014. A lot can happen, which again reflects the uncertainty surrounding all 32 NFL teams. While I feel like there is a very large spectrum representing what can happen this year, the 2014 Falcons season could fall anywhere on that spectrum.

The worst-case scenario appears to be a Falcons season similar to the one we just suffered through in 2013. In that scenario, injuries continue to plague the team and/or many of the young players expected to step up this season do not do so.

But the best-case scenario likely sees the Falcons earning a playoff berth, most likely as a wildcard team. While I’d like to believe that the Falcons can win the NFC South, the rest of the division appears too tough for this team to reach that level.

And that’s because, while I think the Falcons can be good, I don’t expect them to be great. This is not a team like that 2012 team that has the potential to be special.

Yes, it’s true this team is stronger in a number of areas than that 2012 team. The offensive line play should be stronger this year with the addition of right guard Jon Asamoah.

While an addition like Jake Matthews will almost certainly upgrade the Falcons front from a year ago, I’m not sure it’s fair to expect Matthews to come in right away and be better than Tyson Clabo was in 2012. That year was by no means the best season Clabo had in a Falcon uniform, but he still played at a fairly high level for a large chunk of the year. That would be a tall order for a rookie tackle like Matthews.

But it’s those types of the things that have me considering what are the biggest keys to success for the Falcons 2014 season.

The aforementioned play of the offensive line is certainly one, but the biggest key has to be the health of Julio Jones.

Read more…

Categories: Features Tags:

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 12 Corey Peters

July 20th, 2014 No comments

Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Peters

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 12th-ranked player: defensive tackle Corey Peters.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 68/100

Last year’s rank: 14
Player Grade: 59/100
Teams he is starter: 23 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 12 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 31 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +2
Positional Bonus: +3

Peters’ ranking is high based on the possibility that he’s fully healthy in 2014, which recent discussions indicate may be the case.

He suffered a torn Achilles tendon at the end of last season, an injury that has been one that took 18 months to recover. While players were able to return in less time, they did not appear to look close to their former selves until after that 18-month deadline.

However recent breakthroughs in medical science have the conventional wisdom all twisted. Falcons linebacker Kroy Biermann suffered the same injury last September and has shown no limitations thus far this offseason. Former Falcon cornerback Brent Grimes suffered the same injury a year prior, and was no worse for wear last season with the Miami Dolphins.

How such an Achilles injury effects a massive body like Peters however could be different. New England’s Vince Wilfork and Dallas’ Tyrone Crawford are defensive linemen that suffered the same injury last season as well. Former New York Jet defensive end Ropati Pitoitua missed all of 2010 with a torn Achilles, but came back in 2011 and picked up where he left off.

So there is certainly reason to be optimistic for Peters in the immediate future. If Peters manages to pick up where he left off, he could be considered the team’s best defensive lineman.

Read more…

Categories: Features Tags: , ,

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 13 Sam Baker

July 20th, 2014 No comments

Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRE

Sam Baker

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 13th-ranked player: offensive tackle Sam Baker.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 67/100

Last year’s rank: 15
Player Grade: 62/100
Teams he is starter: 22 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 5 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 32 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +2
Positional Bonus: +4

2014 will mark a very important season for Sam Baker’s career. After six mostly impressive seasons with the Falcons, Baker is up against the wall.

Throughout the first four years of his career, Baker battled injuries and inconsistency. But the Falcons continued to show faith in their 2008 first-round pick.

Baker managed to have a breakthrough season at the right time, in a contract year in 2012. That landed him a $41 million contract the following offseason, but Baker rewarded the Falcons’ loyalty with another injury-plagued and poor 2013 season.

Now, Baker will have to bounce back and play at a level comparable to his 2012 level or else face the proposition of finding a new team with Falcons rookie Jake Matthews looking over his shoulder.

Baker carries a cap hit of $7.3 million in 2015, which is pretty pricey for an underachieving left tackle, especially if you have a potential upgrade already on the roster in Matthews. The Falcons would have to eat $9.2 million in dead money if they release him next year, seemingly protecting Baker for another year. However, if the Falcons opted to cut Baker as a post-June 1st release, they would only have to take on $2.8 million in dead money meaning the team could reap $4.5 million in savings.

That’s a pretty big carrot to dangle in front of the Falcons, and thus it’s paramount that Baker plays well in 2014. Frankly considering Baker’s history, his play is going to have to be outstanding to merit being kept on given those potential cap savings.

Injuries have been a big part of Baker’s inconsistency, but it has also hurt Baker that he has never been an ideal fit in the team’s blocking scheme over the years. The Falcons have primarily been a man-blocking team that relied on their individual blockers to create space and push in the run game. Baker spent the entirety of his collegiate career at Southern California playing in a zone-blocking scheme, where it was movement that was there to create space.

Baker struggled with the man-blocking system for the first four years of his career, but things started to click in 2012. It’s possible that with additions like Matthews and Asamoah the Falcons could feature a bit more zone-blocking this year, as that style could benefit them as well. If so, then Baker has an opportunity to stop being the liability in the run game that he was his first four years with the team.

But more importantly, Baker’s status will depend heavily on his ability in pass protection. As the team’s left tackle and quarterback Matt Ryan’s blindside protector, those have been his primary duties. Providing hope that Baker could be improved there is the fact that he did a solid job containing the likes of Greg Hardy in the Falcons Week 9 loss to the Carolina Panthers last season.

Basically Baker needs to have several games at that level this year to maintain his hold on a roster spot. It’s not just his future in Atlanta that is at jeopardy, but also his future in the league. An injury-prone, underachieving left tackle that has only played left tackle in the NFL is not that valuable a commodity elsewhere, except on teams that are bottom feeders.

Baker is capable of stepping up his play, but it’s just a matter of will he actually do so. If his body of work over the past six years are what we are judging by, then there isn’t much room for optimism.

Categories: Features Tags: , ,

Ranking the Falcons 2014: No. 14 Jake Matthews

July 20th, 2014 No comments

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Matthews

I’m counting down the top 40 players on the Atlanta Falcons, and let’s continue with 14th-ranked player: offensive tackle Jake Matthews.

To read the methodology I devised to rank the Falcons players, click here.

Total Score: 65/100

Last year’s rank: N/A
Player Grade: 57/100
Teams he is starter: 21 out of 32
Teams he is best position player: 2 out of 32
Teams he is role player: 32 out of 32
Peak-Year Bonus: +5
Positional Bonus: +4

Matthews is the shining gem of the Falcons 2014 draft class and will have plenty of expectations on him, not only for this season but his career in Atlanta.

As the son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, arguably one of the great offensive linemen to ever play in the NFL, Jake is no stranger to expectations. Bruce played 19 seasons at guard, tackle and center and was voted to the Pro Bowl 14 times.

Frankly, if Jake is able to achieve half of those accomplishments, he’ll go down as one of the best Falcon blockers in team history.

But in many cases, we might be getting a bit ahead of ourselves with projecting Matthews’ career path. While there is no doubt that Matthews is a talented prospect, he’s also by no means a slam dunk to be a successful NFL player.

An area where Matthews will have to improve upon is his strength. While Matthews has some of the more polished footwork and technique I’ve seen over the past decade in a collegiate tackle, those things can only take you so far in the NFL. Being able to use your upper body and hands are just as important at the pro level due to the skill of edge-rushers he’ll face.

Matthews is pegged to be the team’s long-term left tackle, but at the outset he’ll be playing right tackle for the Falcons. It’s not really a question of whether he’ll win the job, since it’s already his, but how well he’ll handle the job as a rookie.

He’ll have some early tests in the regular season, which matchups against Cameron Jordan, Carlos Dunlap, Lamarr Houston and Elvis Dumervil. Later in the season, he could be facing the likes of Julius Peppers and Charles Johnson.

Thus, Matthews will have several opportunities to sink or swim. And while expectations are high, they should not be so high that people expect Matthews to come in right away and be great. That is a possibility but unlikely. As nearly all rookies suffer from, Matthews will likely have his ups and downs. How that balances out will be the thing to watch during Matthews’ rookie season.

Last season, we saw the top three tackles taken in the draft: Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Lane Johnson struggle early on. All three were playing right tackle in the pros after spending most of their college careers on the left side. The positive for Matthews is that he played right tackle for three years opposite Joeckel at Texas A&M, and thus his stint on the right side of the Falcons line should be like putting on an old shoe.

But it’s certainly possible that just like his predecessors, Matthews struggles initially in Atlanta. If he can manage to improve as the season wears on, then things are going to be right on track for his development.

Matthews forms a large piece of the Falcons’ puzzle when it comes to their revamping of the offensive line to try and protect quarterback Matt Ryan’s future. Ryan has blossomed into one of the league’s premier quarterbacks in recent years, which has also coincided with a significant downturn in play among the team’s offensive line. The hope is that the team can get even more from their quarterback if he can remain upright.

Matthews is the biggest part of that effort, and whether it’s at right tackle this year or left tackle in the years beyond, he’ll be that stabilizing force that can allow the team to better protect their $104 million asset.

Categories: Features Tags: , ,