FalcBlog

Well if you don't know, our new first round pick Matt Ryan is represented by super-agent Tom Condon, who is a sort of guru among agents for quarterbacks. He represented Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, and Drew Brees. And what do all of these guys have in common? They all held out trying to get their contracts done.

That's Condon's go-to move. Hold out his player. Granted, I don't believe Alex Smith or Eli Manning held out, but both were No. 1 picks, so neither should have held out. But if a guy is a quarterback drafted in the first round that isn't a No. 1 pick and is repped by Condon, it seems a strong possibility that they will hold out.

This won't earn Ryan any fans in Atlanta if (or should I say when) he holds out. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Rams will get an early deal done with Chris Long which represents a firm ceiling for negotations with Ryan and Condon. But frankly, that seems the only way that the Falcons will get Ryan into camp on Day 1 in my book.

But the fact that Ryan doesn't come into camp on time, may not be completely negative. Frankly, the more time he misses the less likely that he'll be asked to play early in his career. There are some rumors among the fan base that the new brass is poised to start Ryan in Week 1. I think that's highly doubtful, but just in case it's not, a holdout will more than likely nix such ideas.

I'd be willing to bet if we could rank every Falcon fan based on their love for Matt Ryan, I would probably be in the top five. But despite this, I don't want to see him starting right away. That would be a terrible decision, and would tell me that we made the wrong hire in Mike Smith if that happens. The only way Ryan should be starting early in the season is if Chris Redman and Joey Harrington are both injured, D.J. Shockley is dead, and Kordell Stewart is hospitalized getting that keloid burned off the side of his face. I like Ryan a lot, but Peyton Manning he is not. And the powers that be in Atlanta have to do everything, and I mean everything in their power to come up with reasons why he should not play as a rookie.

But that's about the only positive I can spin out of a holdout for Ryan. Otherwise, the benefits of him coming to camp on time definitely outweigh that single positive of him holding out. The more reps in practice he gets, the more comfortable in the offense he gets. The quicker and better he builds a rapport with some of his receivers. And while I don't want Ryan to start as a rookie, it's obviously in the Falcons best interests to prepare him for that possibility (or even likelihood).

Both Leinart and Brees missed about two weeks, Leftwich 18 days, and Quinn 11 days. I'm hoping that Condon sets a new record, one being the shortest holdout of a non-No. 1 quarterback to sign. I'm shooting for less than a week. Arthur Blank is the kind of guy that is going to make sure a deal gets done before things get too protracted. If only for PR purposes. Since the majority of Falcon fans (not me) think it was PR that drove the team to draft Ryan in the first place.

Posted by Aaron at 9:08 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Let me start out by saying I don't love this draft. But i do like it. I do think this is a nice start for the Dimitroff and Smith era.

I really like the Matt Ryan pick. I've been firmly on the Matt Ryan bandwagon since the BC-Georgia Tech game this past season. I think we got a really solid quarterback that is going to be a leader for this team. The way I'd describe Ryan is Carson Palmer in Matt Schaub's body.

I know most Falcon fans wanted Glenn Dorsey, and frankly I would agree with anyone that says that Dorsey is the better player. But I don't think the difference is as pronounced as some Falcon fans think. Dorsey is the "safe" pick, but I don't think he's any more of a slam dunk that Ryan is.

I like Sam Baker as well. I wasn't psyched that we gave up our two second round picks to get him, but I understand it was probably a necessary evil since it was likely we were about to miss out on the quality offensive tackles had we stayed pat at No. 34 overall. And while I think Baker will be slated to man the left tackle position, I'm not sure that's where he'll be playing four or five years from now. I have much higher prospects for his NFL career on the inside, but I'm optimistic about him. He's a tough, hard-working guy that I'm not exactly going to bet against.

Curtis Lofton is a solid interior player. I liked Dan Connor a lot more, but Lofton is not a bad "settlement." Lofton is a tough, mean interior player, something the Falcons have lacked since the heyday of Jessie Tuggle. I think he'll be a starter for us by 2009 at the latest, and should be a solid force for years to come.

I like all three of our third round selections. Chevis Jackson I think will eventually emerge as a starter in Mike Smith's defense. He's a smart, steady zone corner that I would not be surprised if he surpasses both Chris Houston and Von Hutchins in the near future. But for now he gives us a solid nickel corner.

I really like the Harry Douglas pick. He's a solid slot receiver. Cris Carter on ESPN was comparing him to Wes Welker, and I think he can be that sort of player for us. He was the security blanket of Brian Brohm at Louisville, and I think will be the same for Ryan in years to come. I know most thought we were solid at wide receiver, and that would be true for 2008, but beyond this year, we aren't. It remains to be seen if Laurent Robinson is truly starting material. Joe Horn, Brian Finneran, and Michael Jenkins, unless any can have a breakout year close to the level that Roddy White had last season probably won't be back in 2009, which would potentially leave the Falcons thin at wide receiver. With Douglas, Robinson, and White, now we are set at the position.

Thomas DeCoud is another solid player. A good run-stopping free safety that I think will surpass Erik Coleman within a few seasons, particularly if he can make improvements in coverage. I also like this pick because it may mean that if Jimmy Williams remains a Falcon, he'll move to his more natural spot of strong safety, which I think increases the odds we finally get some value out of J-Will.

Our two fifth round picks didn't wow me, but I think we improved our special teams with Robert James and Kroy Biermann. And you never know, James might surpass Stephen Nicholas within a few years and be a starter. And Biermann might be a valuable asset as a situational pass rusher.

In the sixth, we got Thomas Brown. From what little I saw of Brown last year, he was a solid running back. He gives us some insurance as a complementary runner to Turner in case Norwood's durability does not improve.

Fontenot and Zinger I think will be hard-pressed to make the roster this year, but could potentailly provide good depth. Fontenot seems like insurance in case Irons doesn't progress as much as hoped in the No. 4 role this year. And we already have several blocking tight ends already on the roster, but since only Hartsock is guaranteed a job, the rest of the depth chart is pretty wide open.

It would not surprise me that if four or five years from now, this draft yielded six starters with our top six picks. I'll be a bit more modest and predict four starters and two valuable role players, and the chance that at least one of our final five picks emerges as a solid role player as well.

But we all know that five years from now, this draft will be graded solely on Matt Ryan's success with this team. If Ryan turns into the player that Dimitroff (and myself) think he's capable, it won't matter if the other ten guys wash out, not many people are going to notice. And while I don't think this draft alone is going to provide Ryan will the necessary weapons and talent around him to succeed in Atlanta, I do think this draft puts us well on our way.

Posted by Aaron at 9:17 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I did a Top 20 draft board last year, but this year I actually did some scouting myself. Last year's board was based off some limited scouting, but a big part of it was the work done by the so-called experts, and basing it off a plethora of their opinions. Not this year, these rankings reflect my own viewpoints. Some top prospects are omitted, and that's because I simply didn't see them play this year. So here's my Top 25 for the Falcons this year:

1. DE Chris Long
2. DT Glenn Dorsey
3. QB Matt Ryan
4. DE Vernon Gholston
5. DT Sedrick Ellis
6. OT Jake Long
7. RB Darren McFadden
8. OT Ryan Clady
9. DE Derrick Harvey
10. MLB Dan Connor
11. RB Jonathan Stewart
12. WR Malcolm Kelly
13. CB Reggie Smith
14. CB Brandon Flowers
15. WLB Keith Rivers
16. RB Rashard Mendenhall
17. CB Antoine Cason
18. TE Martin Rucker
19. ILB Philip Wheeler
20. SS Kenny Phillips
21. CB Mike Jenkins
22. QB Brian Brohm
23. OT Chris Williams
24. WR Early Doucet
25. OT/OG Sam Baker

I think there are a "Big 7" this year in terms of elite prospects. They are the first tier, and probably players ranked 8th through 17th would represent my second tier of prospects. The rest are pretty much the remainder of the "first round talent" although I would state that everyone after Mike Jenkins is borderline.

Posted by Aaron at 1:33 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

This is a good trade for both the Raiders and Falcons. The Falcons were able to get something substantial for a player that wasn't going to be a long-term solution in Atlanta. Now with another second round pick, the Falcons have a lot of draft day ammunition. They can stand pat, and take a very good player with pick No. 34, or they can package it with other picks in order to move back into Round 1 to get another top player.

This trade works for the Raiders, because they get a young corner that now has a bright future in Oakland. He fits exactly the style of defense the Raiders like to employ, and they were able to get a much better cornerback in Hall than they likely would have found in Round 2. The only major downside of this trade is if the Raiders now can't re-up with Nnamdi Asomugha. But I suspect they will. Giving out cash hasn't been an issue for Al Davis the past few weeks.

I suspect the Falcons will use the newest pick to package together with later picks to possibly move into the latter part of Round 1 in order to draft Brian Brohm, since I suspect the team will pass on Matt Ryan with the No. 3 overall pick. A Hall for Brohm deal is worth it, in my opinion.

Posted by Aaron at 9:05 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

...In regards to improving the offensive line. Granted, there is still plenty of time for moves to be made, but the crop of available offensive linemen is comparatively slim to what it was a week ago. Right now, the only free agents that might be worth the Falcons efforts are guards Larry Allen or Chris Naeole. And Allen is contemplating retirement, and Naeole is coming off a severe enough quad injury that it prompted the Jaguars to release him.

I know many think the Falcons can and will draft Jake Long in the first round of this April's draft. First off, I disagree because I fairly certain (as certain as you can be about the draft in mid-March) that Long will be either the #1 or #2 pick in the draft. And secondly, despite my affinity for Long, I don't think he's another Joe Thomas waiting to happen which is what many are comparing him to. If you ask me, it's no mere coincidence that the Browns added left guard Eric Steinbach, one of the league's premier guards before picking up Thomas, which I'm sure made his transition to the pros a heckuva lot easier. Unless the Falcons can pick up a player the caliber of Steinbach (Allen might qualify) to play left guard, I don't think Justin Blalock is going to be up to that task.

Of course there will be talent available in Round 2 as well, with the Falcons having two picks in that round. But methinks there will be at least four offensive tackles taken in Round 1, if not more. And there's probably only five or six tackles in this entire class that are ready to come in and play left tackle immediately, which doesn't leave much for chance.

No, the Falcons screwed the pooch as far as the left tackle position goes. Maybe the team goes out and makes a large offer to Max Starks. But Starks has struggled often in pass protection in his short NFL career, not exactly the description you want to hear about your next left tackle. Maybe the team picks up Tom Ashworth, who played some spot duty at left tackle in New England and Seattle in recent years. Maybe the team picks up Barry Sims, who has started most of the last 9 years in Oakland at left tackle. But that's the same Barry Sims that gave up 9.5 sacks and was penalized 14 times last year, and has steadily been on the decline for the past 4-5 years. Comparatively, Wayne Gandy gave up 9 sacks and was penalized 7 times in 2006. So if you thought Gandy was bad, then Sims is certainly going to be a lot worse.

At this point, the Falcons best option may be swinging a trade for Jonas Jennings, and then perhaps signing his former linemate in Allen to help solidify the Falcons left side for the next year or two, at least until Blalock and/or our newest rookie have a bit more seasoning under their belts.

Otherwise, I foresee Redman being on his backside quite a bit this year, and the Michael Turner era getting off to a very slow start.

Posted by Aaron at 1:24 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

It was reported that when the Browns re-signed Anderson to his three-year contract, the first of his bonuses was deferred until April. Why does that matter? Because it means the Browns can trade him between now and then without any cap consequences.

When the Browns traded Leigh Bodden, it opened up a hole at cornerback. Unless I'm mistaken, I don't think the Browns plan to go into this season with Daven Holly as a starter.

Previously, it's been speculated on a draft site that the Falcons would trade DeAngelo Hall to Cleveland for Brady Quinn. Now, personally I don't think that trade makes a lot of sense. But I do think we might see Hall traded to Cleveland for Derek Anderson.

Oh no, not in a straight up deal. But if the Falcons offered a 2nd round pick and Hall for Anderson, I think that would be a proposal that the Browns would think about. Whether they actually pull the trigger is completely up to speculation. But it's something to think about.

Anderson's acquisition would mean that the Falcons wouldn't have to use either their first or second round picks on a quarterback, and could now use their top pick on an offensive or defensive lineman, and then still have a second round pick to address needs at other positions if need be.

Just something to think about going forward.

Posted by Aaron at 3:28 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I'm not a fan of this signing. I'm sorry, I know I'm crazy. I know 98% of my fellow Falcon fans are all excited and giddy and were on the verge of not renewing their season tickets until this move, but I'm not among them.

I think the Falcons paid a high premium for what will essentially amount to a non-factor. No, I don't think Turner is crappy, but he's nothing special. The running position is a dime a dozen. Teams will continue to find great value in undrafted free agency and the late rounds, and will be able to continually develop young talent for three or four years, and then be able to successfully move on to the next guy.

I just don't see the genius in paying $34.5 million to another run of the mill running back. For similar reasons I outlined in my McFadden entry, running back is a non-essential position on a rebuilding team. Why bend over backwards for an unproven player?

I think Turner is good player entering the prime of his career, and I think he's a good fit. But I don't think those reasons alone justify a $34.5 million investment. Was Turner arguably the best available option? Yes. But that doesn't justify a $34.5 million investment. The same could be said about Ovie Mughelli last year, but that didn't justify the Falcons rewarded him with the biggest contract ever paid to a fullback, especially when the offense we ran didn't use fullbacks very much. Oh, we'll certainly get plenty of use out of Turner, but in the end I predict it won't justify $34.5 million.

Here's how I can see him justifying his contract, which as I see it puts him in the Top 10 or so of most highly paid running backs in the league. In rushing yards, the 10th ranked rusher had 1119 yards. In touchdowns, it was 8. In yards per carry, it was 4.6 (only counting guys with 150+ carries). In yards per game, it was 80.1. If Turner can achieve just one of these benchmarks in 2008, then he would have justified his contract for that single season. And then we'll see from there. Okay, if he finishes with 1118 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4.5 yards per carry in only 14 games, then maybe I'll cut him slack...but he's going to have to get close.

Posted by Aaron at 12:29 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post