The Falcons have two free agents that they have to decide whether to keep or let test the market: starting free safety Thomas DeCoud and utility backup James Sanders. In a perfect world the Falcons probably manage to hang onto both, but given other priorities, it’s possible one or both players slip through the cracks.

DeCoud has been up and down as a Falcon, but he’s generally been solid as the team’s free safety. Sanders was a nice late summer addition because he can play either safety spot, filling in that depth role vacated by Erik Coleman. There was some hope that when Sanders was signed, he could give the Falcons cause to let DeCoud walk if need be. But Sanders did not quite play at that level this year. He was serviceable when asked to fill in, but was not a significant upgrade when he was on the field versus when DeCoud suited up.

New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will have to make a decision on whether he thinks DeCoud or Sanders can potentially be the quarterback of the secondary in this new scheme. Or he will have to find another option.

One obvious alternative choice would be DaShon Goldson, a player that Nolan drafted in San Francisco. Goldson is coming off a breakout season where he had 6 interceptions. The concern with Goldson is that up until this year, he really was not anything more than an above average player. And any team that is going to pay him will have to determine if his emergence was due to his natural progression and development, or simply because of the introduction of a new scheme by Vic Fangio. If it’s the latter, then there is a buyer’s beware on him.

Outside Goldson, there are few free safeties that jump out for the Falcons to sign. Jim Leonhard (Jets) has a bit of the intangibles that the Falcons probably would want as leader in their secondary, but he’s finished his second straight season on injured reserve and will be 30 in October. His teammate Brodney Pool is a ballhawk, but a bit too one-dimensional as he’s a suspect run defender.

Reggie Nelson is known by head coach Mike Smith, and played well as a rookie in 2007. But in the ensuing years after Smith’s departure, his play dropped off significantly. But he had a nice bounce-back season this past year in Cincinnati. But the issue with Nelson is whether you can count on him to maintain that level of play.

One other player near the top of the list is Tennessee’s Michael Griffin. Griffin has not quite developed into the elite safety the Titans envisioned when they made him their top pick in 2007. But he is a fast, athletic safety that at least offers some upside.

But in truth, there are no obvious upgrades over a player such as DeCoud on the market. When examining their entire bodies of work, nobody’s really stands out above his. This is the classic sort of free agent market where mid-level starting safeties get overpaid. If the Falcons can re-up with DeCoud on a hometown discount, that probably makes the most sense.

If the Falcons lose Sanders and are looking for more of a utility backup, one option out there is Jordan Babineaux, younger brother of Jonathan. Babineaux can play either safety spot as well as nickel cornerback, giving the team options there. But in the end, the Falcons should probably try and keep both DeCoud and Sanders. If they were to prioritize one over the other, then DeCoud is probably the better choice. But if the Falcons are going to want to find a player that is a significant upgrade at free safety, they will need to focus on finding him in the draft.

This position is one of their biggest question marks entering the off-season. The Falcons will be in a position where the decisions they make here could really make or break their defensive success for years to come.

That decision is centered on whether they bring back Brent Grimes or opt to let him walk via free agency. Grimes is one of the few impact defenders on that side of the ball and based off that fact alone it should be a no-brainer to keep him. But the question isn’t that simple, as the factor of money plays a huge part in Grimes’ future in Atlanta.

Two years ago, the Falcons made Dunta Robinson one of the league’s highest paid corners by giving him a deal that averages $9.5 million a year and included $22.5 million in guaranteed money. That contract paid Robinson over $30 million in the first three years of his contract, paying him more money than what the Falcons gave to their top wideout Roddy White the previous summer.

Robinson was essentially paid to be a premier corner, the caliber of player that could take on the league’s best receivers, and not only contain them but potentially shut them down. But what has occurred in the time since is that Grimes has developed into that player. That became very obvious when he transformed into “Optimus Grimes” and contained the league’s premier receiver in Week 7′s win over Detroit.

So now the Falcons have a potential dilemma on their hands. If any player on this roster deserves to make Robinson’s salary, it is Grimes. But the Falcons don’t seem inclined to part ways with Robinson, thanks in large part to the minimal savings it would net towards this year’s salary cap. So the Falcons are essentially having to ask themselves the question: Can they afford to pay two guys that type of money?

And whether that answer is yes or no, will reflect whether or not Grimes is a Falcon in 2012.

And if the answer is no, then the Falcons defense could be in trouble. While Dominique Franks had his moments late in the season as an injury replacement for Grimes, he is still a very far cry from providing the caliber of skills that Grimes has over the past two years. And thus the Falcons are going to need to find more help at this position if they lose Grimes.

And if the Falcons are unwilling to pay a high premium for Grimes, it’s unlikely that they are going to get into bidding wars for the other top free agent corners on the market that include Cortland Finnegan, Carlos Rogers, Brandon Carr, Tracy Porter, and Terrell Thomas.

Instead, the Falcons will likely have to look at some bargain players. The chances that Kelvin Hayden returns will probably increase if Grimes departs. Players such as Kelly Jennings, Richard Marshall, Rashean Mathis, Jason Allen, and Will Allen are all available free agents that have past experience with members of this coaching staff. With the exception of Marshall, who is only 27, all of those guys are older veterans that can at least provide the team with a decent insurance policy in case Franks or Chris Owens aren’t ready to be the starter. But all would be short-term stopgaps at best, essentially no different than the team’s decision to sign Brian Williams a few years back.

Detroit’s Eric Wright, New York’s Aaron Ross, and Chicago’s Zack Bowman might also be worthwhile targets that will likely be allowed to test their markets by their respective teams.

Either way, it appears clear that the best option available remains Grimes. And while he could be one of the more expensive options, he’s a known commodity. But new DC Mike Nolan has generally shown a preference for bigger, more physical corners than Grimes, and thus might influence their decision to pass on keeping him under the expectation that he won’t be as good going forward in Nolan’s scheme as he has been in recent years under Brian VanGorder.

If the Falcons were to retain Grimes, then there would be little issue at this position. They could continue with Grimes and Robinson as the starters, and continue to develop Franks as the nickel corner with the hope that in the future he could develop into a capable starter. Re-signing Grimes makes things a lot easier on the team.

If not, then they will likely be looking for a stopgap for a year or so in the hopes that Franks takes a huge leap forward, Robinson starts to play up to his price tag, and/or buying them a year in the hopes that they can use a top pick on a corner in the 2013 draft. It’s a huge decision, and it really could color the outlook of this defense for years to come. If they keep Grimes, they should be fairly confident that it will stabilize the secondary for years to come, an area that has been a major weakness for the Falcons over the years. If not, then they are gambling that current players on their roster will step as well as hoping that they can find that stabilizing piece in future off-seasons.

As far as I see it, why roll the dice?

The Falcons primary goal this off-season at this position will be re-signing Curtis Lofton. Lofton is by all indications going to be one of the team’s highest priorities this off-season to keep, if not the highest priority among their 17 free agents. But there have been recent reports that while Lofton should be back in Atlanta in 2012, his role could change.

Those reports come from Len Pasquarelli, who indicates that the Falcons could perceive Lofton more as a two-down situational linebacker than a full-time everydown player. If that is the case, and the Falcons are successful at retaining Lofton, it could mean that they will be looking for more help at the linebacker position on the open market.

If the Falcons pull Lofton off the field in passing and nickel situations, they will need to find a player to replace him. That player could be Stephen Nicholas, but that seems unlikely since this team has over the years done their best to limit Nicholas’ role on passing downs. Unless Mike Nolan envisions something where Nicholas pass-rushing ability is added to the mix along with coverage duties. That does make some sense if the Falcons do plan to employ a mix of 3-4/4-3 looks, with Nicholas and Weatherspoon being their two best blitzing linebackers.

But the Falcons might also want to look at potentially adding an outside linebacker that can be more of a factor in coverage. The Falcons have had their issues covering the really good tight ends that populate the NFC and NFC South specifically in recent years. Collectively, Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey, Greg Olsen, and Kellen Winslow combined for 33 catches for 365 yards, and 4 touchdowns this year in their combined 8 games against the Falcons. Particularly with Graham, if the Falcons can do a better job containing him, it will go a long way to trying to get over that hurdle that is beating the Saints on a consistent basis. The Falcons should be looking at options to help combat this issue. If the team opts to not keep Mike Peterson, then they will have a perfect opportunity to add another outside linebacker to the mix that can help in coverage to replace him.

A player that immediately should shoot to the top of the Falcons list is Wesley Woodyard. He played under Nolan in 2009, where he served as the Broncos nickel linebacker. He has served in a similar capacity since, until this year he started 7 games at both weakside and middle linebacker. Woodyard played safety in college, and also one of the Broncos special teams captain. He is a player that is likely to be one of their higher priorities to re-sign this off-season, but the Falcons could show enough interest to try and lure him away since there’s no guarantee that he will start in Denver.

Another name from Nolan’s past could be Manny Lawson. Lawson was a player that the 49ers used a #1 pick on in 2006 under Nolan. He never developed into the feared pass rusher while there, but did develop into a capable coverage guy due to his athleticism. When Jim Harbaugh took over and brought in a 3-4 scheme that required the outside guys to be able to bring pressure, Lawson was cast off and settled in Cincinnati, where he had a nice season. Lawson’s newfound experience in the 4-3, plus his familiarity with Nolan’s 3-4 could make him an intriguing option that like Nicholas could be used both in coverage and as a pass rusher.

Another option could be Lawson’s teammate Brandon Johnson. Johnson, is a tall, athletic linebacker that has spent time as the Bengals nickel linebacker over the past few years and has been capable in that role. He probably would not be the Falcons top option, but a decent alternative if they cannot get Woodyard or Lawson.

A player that the Falcons might be holding out to get, would be Carolina’s Thomas Davis. Davis might be cut this off-season. Davis has torn his ACL in each of the past three years, having appeared in only a total of 9 games. But a healthy Davis, who is a Georgia native, is exactly the type of player that would provide what the Falcons are looking for on the outside: a guy that can help contain this top tight ends. The Panthers may opt to cut him, and obviously the health of his knee would prove to be a major concern. But it wouldn’t hurt to take a look-see if that day comes, and if the Falcons can get him at a discount, it could be a low-risk, high-reward scenario if Davis finally proves healthy.

Obviously, the Falcons will make it their first priority to keep Lofton. Mike Peterson’s status could be up in the air, especially if the team does intend to target another player that can provide more help in coverage. But this is definitely a position worth stabilizing for the team in free agency.

Unlike a lot of positions on the Falcons roster, the defensive tackle spot is relatively settled. The Falcons are very likely to return both starters in Jonathan Babineaux and Corey Peters. Vance Walker is a restricted free agent, but is also a fairly safe bet to return under a one-year tender. The one player currently on the roster that is on the bubble is Peria Jerry.

Jerry, as a former first round pic,k is being paid highly but the Falcons have yet to really get a substantial return on their investment as far as his on-field play goes. Jerry flashed some ability early in the season but then was fairly quiet the rest of the way. According to Jeff Schultz of the AJC, Jerry carries a cap hit of close to $2 million this year. It’s not very expensive, but the Falcons could opt to part ways with him.

But I would be somewhat suprised if Jerry is released this off-season. My reasons are: 1) The cap savings would not make a huge difference, 2) Jerry got a lot of praise last summer from teammates and coaches for making some strides in camp, likely indicating the powers that be believe the needle is pointing up, and 3) The Falcons seemed to give Jamaal Anderson probably one more year than he deserved as a former first round pick, and he wasn’t even one of their selections. With Jerry, who is one of the “their guys” it’s likely he’ll get a fourth year too.

At the very least, I would expect the Falcons to bring Jerry back to camp for one more summer and have someone try to push and compete for his spot and try to improve the rotation on the back-end.

Another interesting development is with the introduction of Mike Nolan as the new defensive coordinator, would the team target a bigger physical run defender that can play a bit more of a nose-tackle role if the team does choose to employ some hybrid 4-3/3-4 looks. That player is currently missing on the roster, with Vance Walker coming the closest.

It’s unlikely the Falcons would target a big name or higher priced free agent, since it’s no safe bet that any addition would even beat out Jerry for the job. So that probably leaves guys like Paul Soliai and Aubrayo Franklin, guys that once played under Nolan in Miami and Baltimore out of the mix. Not unless either were willing to come to Atlanta cheaply. But there’s always a premium on good 3-4 nose tackles on the open market.

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Coupled with their need to improve their offensive line, one could argue that the Falcons enhancing their pass rush is their second biggest key of the off-season.

The hope is that new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan with his experience running both the 3-4 and 4-3 will be able to bring some varied and multiple fronts to try and help confuse opposing quarterbacks and add more pressure. But at the end of the day you can’t just scheme your way to a good pass rush, you need good players that can provide that pressure.

The Falcons will first have to make decisions on two of their own free agents, which are John Abraham and Kroy Biermann.

Abraham was by far the team’s top pass rusher this past year, recording 9.5 sacks. But despite a drop-off in sack total from a year ago, Abraham was able to put more pressure on the quarterback this year and had his best season since 2008. He will be 34 when next season starts, and as has been the case the past two seasons he really is only a part-time player. With his age, the Falcons can probably only realistically expect Abraham, even as a situational player, to have perhaps one or two more good years left in him. It is similar to what happened with Leonard Little in St. Louis, who over the last two years of his career was able to combine for 12.5 sacks at ages 34 and 35 before he hung it up. With Abraham, it seemingly will come down to price. The Falcons should want Abraham back, but if he wants to be paid too much money to be a situational player, the team might opt to look at younger options.

Abraham’s departure will likely increase the odds that Biermann returns. Biermann after a strong start to the 2009 season, has disappointed each of the past two years. Biermann is an adequate defensive end that plays the run well, and is a decent pass rusher. But he’s clearly shown that he’s not the type of player that can consistently beat quality starting tackles, a skill that is necessary to be a starter at this level. So while the Falcons could want him back, they aren’t likely to pay him more than the average reserve salary.

If the Falcons plan to vary up their fronts by using more zone blitzes and dropping their ends more in coverage like 3-4 linebackers, then Abraham is their best option. Abraham is the only Falcons defensive end that has shown some comfort dropping into coverage, dating from his experience with the New York Jets in their hybrid scheme back in 2005. If that is the Falcons plan, then it could affect who they might look at on the open market. While the Falcons have stated clearly they intend to stick with the 4-3 scheme, they have been somewhat ambiguous about whether they intend to move to a 3-4 down the road. It could be a strong indicator if they target certain pass rushers on the open market that offer the versatility to play in either scheme. If the Falcons do pursue a free agent on the open market it will likely be at the expense of both Abraham and Biermann.

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In the first part, we spent the bulk of the conversation discussing what the Falcons could or should do to address their need at left tackle. But not to be overlooked are the potential open holes on the interior at center and right guard.

While the Falcons have somewhat of an answer at center in Joe Hawley, they might not be completely comfortable entrusting the gig to him. It would be smart to bring in at least a veteran that can function as a reserve if not a direct competitor for the job. The team could also opt sign an established veteran that could definitely land the job because there is a strong group of free agents this off-season. Chris Myers (Houston), Scott Wells (Green Bay), Jeff Saturday (Indianapolis), Dan Koppen (New England), Andre Gurode (Baltimore). and Nick Hardwick (San Diego) headline the list of candidates.

Myers is likely to land a lucrative contract around $50 or so million that makes him one of the more highly paid centers in the league. Wells also being one of the younger options is likely to land a lucrative deal from Green Bay or another team on the market. Although he’ll probably be had for a slightly cheaper price than Myers.

Saturday is possibly a future Hall of Famer, but he may opt to retire this off-season. And while he would definitely be a great stopgap for a year or two in Atlanta, it would seem counter-intuitive given the Falcons desires to get younger. Koppen is no spring chicken, as he’ll turn 33 at the start of the 2012 season. He’s missed all but the first half of the Patriots Week 1 opener with a broken ankle. Although initial reports indicated that Koppen would only miss 4 months due to the injury, which would mean that he could be 100% by now or nearly there. He’s been a mainstay in New England since 2003, and it’ll be interesting to see if they let him walk.

Gurode played the bulk of this past year at left guard for the Ravens, after the Cowboys cut him this past summer. He’ll turn 33 in March and would definitely add a physical element up front. His ability to play guard or center could make an attractive target, but the Falcons definitely won’t break the bank to sign him.

Hardwick is also considering retirment, thanks in large part due to the issues that teammate Kris Dielman suffered due to concussion-related seizures. Hardwick is still relatively young, as he’ll be 31 when the season starts. He has been under the radar over most of his career in San Diego, rarely getting the accolades of others, but being a consistently good starter up front. If he still wants to play for a few more years, and departs San Diego he could be an option for Atlanta.

But if the Falcons don’t go after one of these bigger names, then someone such as Jamey Richard (Colts), Tony Wragge (Rams), Scott Mruczkowski (Chargers), or Geoff Hangartner (Panthers) who are serviceable reserves with some starting experience that could compete directly with Hawley, and be much cheaper options.

At right guard, the Falcons are probably a bit more likely to spend some big money than they are at center. Garrett Reynolds struggled early in the season, and Hawley was clearly outmatched for the job the rest of the way. While the team might hope that Mike Johnson can make a healthy return and push for the job, they should probably move forward under the expectation that Johnson is no longer a viable long-term option.

Carl Nicks is the top free agent, and most suspect he’ll price himself out of New Orleans. That would mean of course that if the Falcons pursue him, they would have to spend the cash to lure him here. It’ll be interesting to see if the Falcons can keep some of their own prominent free agents and also afford to make a strong play for Nicks. He would definitely beef up the Falcons interior and give them the sort of right guard that could push the pile as well as keep Matt Ryan’s jersey cleaner.

The next name on the list is Ben Grubbs, who is a solid to good guard for the most part. Grubbs will also be an expensive option, but as a Georgia native, might come somewhat cheaper than Nicks. What he lacks in size compared to Nicks, he makes up for with athleticism.

Philadelphia’s Evan Mathis is also a player that could find his bank account enhanced this off-season. He’s coming off a good year in Philadelphia, after spending years as a journeyman and backup mostly. He probably won’t be as expensive as either Nicks or Grubbs, making him arguably the best bang for your buck if he can reproduce his production in Philadelphia here in Atlanta.

Other options include Tennessee’s Jake Scott, who has been a steady, yet unspectacular starter for the Titans over the years. He’ll turn 31 this off-season, and really only makes sense if the Falcons cannot get one of the bigger names.

The rest of the class isn’t really filled with anybody that really makes the needle move, and the Falcons would probably be better off targeting options in the draft if they were not able to snag one of these four options at guard. It is a fairly deep class of guards for this draft, and subsequently the Falcons may try to find their long-term answer there.

That might be the best plan for the Falcons: get immediate help at left tackle via free agency, but still try to cultivate a young guy at right guard if they cannot afford one of the premier free agents. Either way, you can expect some substantial additions to the Falcons offensive line to try and bolster this unit for 2012 and beyond.

Arguably the biggest priority for the Falcons this off-season is improving up front. This team got pushed around too much last year, and if they intend to make a championship run in the coming years that has to change. Their offensive line is going to have to go from a glaring weakness to an obvious strength.

The Falcons will first need to make decisions on whether to bring certain players back. Todd McClure is a free agent, and it appears he intends to keep playing. But McClure turns 35 in two weeks, and with the intense focus on improving in the trenches, the time seems ripe to move on and try to get younger here. The Falcons have Joe Hawley waiting in the wings. Hawley did not particularly shine at center early in the season, but the experience he added later in the year playing guard should help him improve there.

The Falcons will also need to make a decision on whether to bring back Sam Baker. Many are speculating that the Falcons will part ways with Baker due to his salary and the disappointing 2011 he had. Baker showed promise early in his career, playing well in his first two seasons, but has showed almost no improvement, if not regression over the past two seasons. The team tried him at right guard and as a blocking tight end late in the season, and neither position switch really worked. So it’s likely that the team will part ways, saving money and moving on.

If the team shows trust in Hawley to man the pivot spot, that will mean more than likely the team will focus on upgrading the left tackle position and right guard spot this off-season.

Will Svitek was a decent replacement for Baker at left tackle, but as he got more experience there he was exposed a bit more. The team should be on the lookout for a long-term solution at this position. But without a first round pick in the draft, it will be hard to find a good left tackle ready to start right away in the draft. That could mean the Falcons scour the free agent market looking for quality left tackle candidates.

A few players such as Jared Gaither (San Diego) and Demetrius Bell (Buffalo) rise to the top of the list. Although there is some talk that the Chargers could dump Marcus McNeill due to his high salary and his neck and back injuries, Gaither is probably not likely to return to San Diego. Back injuries also forced Gaither to miss all of the 2010 season and some of 2009. But prior to those injuries, he was considered one of the top young left tackles in the league. He signed with the Chiefs this past off-season to try and resurrect that reputation, but he did little besides serving as a third tackle and tight end. But when he was picked up by the CHargers in Week 13, he started to play well down the stretch.

Gaither’s past injury issues probably means that whatever team, Falcons included, should not break the bank for him. But he’s a big, physical player that if his strength is back is capable of going up against the better pass rushers in the league and a clear upgrade over what the Falcons have at the position.

Bell has also dealt with his share of injuries, missing a big chunk of this past year with a broken collarbone, before a knee injury put him on IR before the final game of the season. He also missed half of the 2009 season with knee problems. Bell looked like a player that was finally emerging into a capable left tackle this year before injuries sapped him. But he struggled in both previous seasons as the Bills left tackle. It appears the Bills want to keep him, but he may decide to move on because they intend to have him compete with second-year Chris Hairston for the starting job. Bell may opt to go to a team where he is more appreciated. Bell has always been noted for his athleticism, being the son of former NBA super star Karl Malone. The question the Falcons must ask is whether or not his issues with injuries are going to be a problem going forward, and whether he’s a one-year wonder that will pick up where he left off before getting hurt this season.

Another option to the Falcons may be to go after a player like Philadelphia’s King Dunlap. Dunlap has performed admirably in a handful of replacement starts for Jason Peters over the past few years. He’s a massive blocker that could be looking to emerge from the shadows as a legit starter. Because of his limited experience, he probably would be a much cheaper option for the Falcons to pursue.

Pittsburgh’s Max Starks might be worth a look, but he’ll likely miss most if not all of the spring due to suffered a torn ACL at the end of the year. Starks could be a cheap insurance policy if that injury drives his price down, that the Falcons could stash on the PUP until he’s healthy.

The Falcons could also try and go after a veteran like Jeff Backus who could be a decent stopgap for a year. The Lions appear to want Backus to return. But he too is coming off a biceps injury that may limit his ability to come in right away and man the starting spot.

Signing injured players is not really in the best interest of the Falcons because they’ll need their new linemen to be able to come in the spring and summer and begin to gel as a unit. So that would make it doubtful that the team would look hard at guys like Backus and Starks, although Bell should not be out too long.

That likely means the Falcons will have to make a serious play for Gaither, who could be a fairly hot commodity on the open market for all the left tackle-needy teams that won’t be picking at the top of the draft. Teams like Arizona, Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, and Minnesota all might be making strong plays for a player such as Gaither. Which is thus why the Falcons may find themselves priced out of that sweepstakes, and a player like Dunlap more attractive to bring in to compete directly with Svitek.

In the next part, we’ll look at what the Falcons can do to upgrade their interior offensive line.

After a short lay-off, it’s time to get back into what things to look out for in free agency at each position group. Now it’s time we take a look at the tight end position.

The Falcons were able to hold off on major shake-up at this position by extending Tony Gonzalez’s contract for one more year. It’s likely 2012 will be the swan song season for Gonzalez, who is desperately trying to win a championship, or at least a playoff game before he retires. Since it seems very likely that this upcoming season will be his last, the team must find a viable long-term replacement for Gonzalez.

It was once thought that could potentially be Michael Palmer. But Palmer has done little to justify such beliefs. While Palmer is a solid backup tight end, he has not shown the ability as a receiver to really justify any faith in him to be a viable starter going forward. He has a good set of hands, but has yet to show he can consistently beat man coverage, a requirement for any starting receiver. More than likely the Falcons can pencil in Palmer to perform a role similar to Justin Peelle which is a backup blocker, an area where he has shown improvement.

Reggie Kelly is a free agent, but he’s not expected back after contributing little for most of the season. This all should lead to the Falcons exploring their options to try and find some tight end depth this off-season with an eye towards a guy that can take over the reins from Gonzalez in 2013. It probably makes the most sense to target such a player in the draft but they could look at a few options in free agency.

The best player available is without question Green Bay’s Jermichael Finley. But most expect the Packers to slap the franchise tag on him, limiting his availability. The next best player is probably Washington’s Fred Davis. But he ended the season on a four-game suspension due to failing a drug test (marijuana), and is one more positive test away from a full-year’s suspension. That issue hanging over his head would likely hurt his marketability, making him a cheaper option for any team willing to take on that risk. But given the so-called Falcons Filter when it comes to issues of character, it’s unlikely they would be one of the teams willing to roll that dice.

The next group of starting-caliber tight ends are Martellus Bennett (Dallas), John Carlson (Seattle), and Joel Dreessen (Houston).

Bennett is a brash player known for some of his more out-spoken comments during his days in Dallas, but at the end of the day he’s a pretty good football player. He seems to be a player that is waiting for his opportunity to emerge from the shadow of Jason Witten, and his chance to hit the open market this off-season might be it. Unfortunately, Bennett is more of a blocker at this point in his career than a receiver despite excellent size and athleticism. His hands have been inconsistent at times, and he’s more in line with a good No. 2 than an effective No. 1 tight end. While he could represent a major upgrade over Palmer, it’s unlikely he could come close to filling the shoes of Gonzalez going forward.

Carlson missed all of this past year with a shoulder injury. Prior to the arrival of Pete Carroll, Carlson was a productive tight end in the passing game, tallying over 50 catches in his first two seasons in the league. But part of that may have stemmed from the lack of playmakers that the Seahawks have had on the outside. But he’s a player that can definitely be an effective starter and ideally an H-back, a role he did well with in Seattle. Dirk Koetter’s offense makes ample use of the H-back, and if the Falcons deem Carlson healthy, he might be a nice, solid option to pursue.

Dreessen has performed well as a replacement for an injured Owen Daniels over the past three years. Daniels has missed 14 combined games over the past three seasons, and in those games, Dreessen has combined for 43 catches, 561 yards (13.0 avg), and 3 touchdowns. Dreessen will turn 30 in July, but he’s a player that could fit very well in the H-back role here in Atlanta, although once again as a long-term replacement for Gonzalez, he might be limited.

If the Falcons are looking to try and find a better No. 2 option than Palmer to team with Gonzalez, they could do so in this free agent market. But in terms of strong candidates to be permanent long-term replacements for Gonzalez next year and beyond, this market appears limited. How important that No. 2 TE is could also be determined by how the team handles the fullback position. If Koetter favors more of a two-tight end based offense that marginalizes the need for a blocking back, it’s quite possible the Falcons could try to make a splash in free agency for an H-back, but also go after the heir apparent to Gonzalez via the draft as well. The Falcons definitely have options worth exploring in free agency, but more than likely will focus on the draft when it comes down to it.

The Falcons will have to make a decision on whether to keep or let Harry Douglas go in free agency. And you could make the case for either happening. The Falcons are expected to install a vertical offense under Dirk Koetter. And playing the vertical game is really not a strength of Douglas. He’ll make the occasional play down the field, but his bread and butter is really the shorter and intermediate routes where he can use his quickness and burst after the catch to make plays. So in that sense, it would make sense for the Falcons to pass on Douglas and find someone that is a better fit for the scheme.

But at the same time, it’s not like you’re going to run 3 or 4 verticals every snap of the game, and having a nice outlet option underneath to make teams pay if they set their coverages too deep is a valuable commodity.

Ultimately the main issue with Douglas is the price. For the right price, the team should want him back. But at the wrong one, it’s probably best if the team lets him walk. And that’s going to be the big question surrounding this year’s free agent market at wide receiver.

Last summer, the market wasn’t very big for a lot of players. Outside Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes, no one really got paid that much. Now making $2-3 million a year is not chump change, but a lot of young receivers were expecting to cash in with lucrative long-term deals and did not. If that repeats this off-season, then a lot of players like Douglas could be left out in the cold. And that would make the chances that the Falcons can get Douglas for a modest price very high. And it seems based off deals that players like Earl Bennett and Jordy Nelson signed this past fall/winter, it doesn’t seem like teams are willing to break the bank for these complementary receivers.

If the Falcons are looking for a receiver that is a better fit in their more vertical-oriented passing attack, targeting someone with size and speed would be best. There are a number of players that sort of fit that mold as guys that are good going down the field. The ideal player would likely be Brandon Lloyd (St. Louis), but he’s likely to price him out of the Falcons range since Lloyd should be looking for starter’s money. The same could probably be said of Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis).

Next on the Falcons list would probably be Mario Manningham (NY Giants) and Robert Meachem (New Orleans). But both are quasi-starters for their respective teams, and will probably be looking for more lucrative deals and playing time. But with both, they have proven they are good No. 3 receivers and able to make big plays downfield, their primary roles with their respective teams.

Another pair of cheaper options I like are Chaz Schilens (Oakland) and Devin Aromashodu (Minnesota). Schilens is more big than fast, but his size allows him to make plays downfield because he can be so valuable on the jump balls. Aromashodu has a better mix of size and speed. The good thing about both is that it’s very likely both will come fairly cheap because neither have had more than 29 receptions in a single year. Frankly, if the Falcons could keep Douglas as well as sign one of them, it would be a good move for their wide receiver corps.

One issue the Falcons may face if they do choose to retain Douglas, is that whoever could potentially join the team as the fourth receiver would need to be able to play on special teams. That is a role that none of the previously mentioned free agents have really done. It’s a role that Douglas has performed little of. And it’s why the team has valued players like Eric Weems and Kerry Meier in recent years. That could make a player like Devin Thomas (NY Giants) a bit more attractive. Of course Thomas has been plagued with inconsistency throughout his career and has made minimal contributions on offense. If the Falcons signed him, it might be too lofty of expectations to think he will make any significant contributions on offense. It could be similar to when the Jaguars signed Kassim Osgood a year ago to be more of an offensive playmaker than he was in San Diego, and that did not work out so well.

Either way, the Falcons will have to address their receiver depth this off-season. If none of those free agents can be had at the right price, they might turn their attention to getting bigger and faster via the draft.

To be honest, when I wrote up the free agent focus article on the running back position, I completely ignored the fullback position. It was an error on my part because it’s a position that is often overlooked, but in the case of the Falcons it certainly will be worth watching this off-season.

New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter by many accounts prefers to use more two-tight end sets rather than using the traditional fullback position. But from what I’ve read, it seemed that in Jacksonville Greg Jones was so good as a lead blocker that he couldn’t really phase him out like he normally would. For much of the Mike Smith/Mike Mularkey Era, Ovie Mughelli has widely been considered the best or one of the best lead blockers in the game. But that all changed last year. If I’m not mistaken, Mughelli injured his knee early against the Bears (perhaps on the opening kickoff), but proceeded to continue playing with the injury until he was placed on injured reserve in October. That injury could explain why Mughelli was largely ineffective as a lead blocker through the first month or so of the season. Or it could be age starting to catch up with him. But Mughelli was only 31 this past year, and other top fullbacks similar to him like Lorenzo Neal, William Henderson, Mack Strong, and Tony Richardson were able to continue playing at a high level into the mid-to-late thirties.

But all of this raises questions about his future with the team. Mughelli is coming off season-ending knee surgery, entering the final year of his contract which will pay him $3 million in base salary. That’s a hefty price to pay for a fullback, even one as good as Mughelli. Especially if the Falcons shake up the running back position as much as they potentially could.

Part of the equation will be how the Falcons felt about Mughelli’s replacement, Mike Cox. Cox will be a free agent, and he certainly had his moments as a lead blocker, but he certainly didn’t come close to playing at the level that Ovie has been known to play at over the years. But if Koetter intends to minimize the role of the lead blocker, then it’s probably smarter to go with a cheap but solid guy like Cox, rather than the more expensive Mughelli. One certainly expects that Cox can be re-signed for considerably less than the $3 million the team would be paying Ovie. Retaining Jason Snelling also would give them another alternative option.

The Falcons also need help at tight end, and likely will target some young guy in the draft to groom as the heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez. And it will be interesting to see if they target someone that is more of an H-back type than your traditional inline tight end. If that is the case, then it would de-emphasize Mughelli’s role and value as well.

At this point, I would probably be pleasantly surprised if Ovie Mughelli returns to the Falcons in 2012. Just the sheer combination of age, injury, salary, and the fact that the team has two decent alternatives in Cox and Snelling, probably puts Ovie behind the eight ball. I would personally love to see him return because I still think a healthy Ovie can be a very effective player on this team and within this offense. But I can certainly understand if the Falcons brass decide to move in a different direction.