Yesterday I went over the offense and the changes that may be ahead for the team.  Those changes will continue on the defensive side of the ball. Not only does the arrival of Mike Nolan bring changes to the defensive philosophy the changes will also be noticeable in the personnel.  Most of this will obviously be in the front seven and that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone at this point.

SAFETIES:  The starting safeties from last season, Thomas DeCoud and William Moore,  will return for the 2012 season with DeCoud’s recent re-signing.  The way the contract is structured it seems that it’s more of a 2 year audition for DeCoud that could lead to a very good deal for both parties.  Who will back them up is the better question.  Shann Schillinger returns as one of the better special teams players on the squad.  James Sanders is an unrestricted free agent and it’s unclear whether or not the team will re-sign him.  The draft isn’t very deep at safety this year but it’s certainly possible the team draft one in the later rounds or simply sign Sanders or another free agent to round out the squad.

CORNERBACKS:  Brent Grimes received the franchise tag but shows no indications of wanting to play under the 1 year tender.  If I had to guess, the sticking point may be the length of the contract.  At 29, teams often shy away from longer term contracts while Grimes most certainly wants to ensure he makes the most of his opportunity to secure his future.  Hopefully the situation will not turn into a hold out situation but that is something the team will have to prepare for.  Dunta Robinson, Christopher Owens and a rapidly improving Dominique Franks return along with Darrin Walls who opened eyes last preseason.  Kelvin Hayden is an unrestricted free agent and my guess is that he will not be re-signed.  This is one area of the team that I’m almost certain that the front office will use a draft pick to add depth, competition as well as guard against a potential hold out.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS:  Starters Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon return along with reserves Spencer Adkins and Robert James.  Mike Peterson is the lone free agent of the group and should be re-signed to provide quality depth to the unit.  More on this position a little later on when defensive ends are covered.

MIDDLE LINEBACKERS:  The most noticeable change is most likely coming at middle linebacker.  With Akeem Dent drafted last year and the recent signing of Lofa Tatupu, I can’t help but think that the Falcons and free agent Curtis Lofton are parting ways.  There is just entirely too much “smoke” that indicates the team has one value for Lofton while he and his agent have another and feel they can get that value on the open market.  That said, I’m sure the door is still open but probably not as widely as it once was. Whether or not another middle linebacker is added remains to be seen as the team is not tipping it’s hand but I would not be surprised to see it happen.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES:  Jonathan Babineaux, Corey Peters and Peria Jerry are all under contract.  The fourth in the rotation, Vance Walker, is a restricted free agent and all indications are that he will return under the one year tender.  I’m not of the opinion that this group is the final group though.  A role player through free agency may be added or just as likely, a draft pick spent.

DEFENSIVE END: With Lawrence Sidbury, Ray Edwards,  last year’s draft pick addition, Cliff Matthews and the newly re-signed Kroy Biermann the Falcons return a youthful group of ends.  Free agent John Abraham has been reported to have priced himself  far out of the team’s range and it appears that the team will make a very strong push for free agent to be Mario Williams.  I’m of the opinion that a rotation of Sidbury and Biermann would yield production from the right end position but things may not be as straight forward as that.  With Mike Nolan’s defense, there will be 3-4 situations that would show Williams as a pass rushing linebacker or even Biermann as a linebacker at times as well.  This will be and already is the most discussed issue (along with whether or not Lofton will return) among Falcon fans.  I could just as easily see a role playing type defensive end (Kendall Langford is one that has been mentioned) added if Williams is not added but again, I expect the Falcons to pull out all the stops to acquire Mario Williams.

SPECIAL TEAMS:  Last year’s draft pick, Matt Bosher, started off on the shaky side but quickly worked through it and became a very consistent punter.  The future looks very bright for Bosher and I look for him to establish himself much like Michael Koenen did early in his career with the team.  Matt Bryant returns along with his consistency as the placekicker.  Returner Eric Weems is a free agent.  If he doesn’t return, a receiver like Eddie Royal may be added to not only be the returner but also fill receiver duties.  Another option would be cornerback Dominique Franks as well.  In the end, I expect Weems to return to the team.

In two days, when the free agency doors swing wide open, there will certainly be a frenzy of signings.  The path of the future of the Falcons will be paved and the direction of the team will be clearer as question marks are erased with each signing.

As everyone knows, the Falcons have fallen short of expectations the past two season and all indications from the postseason press conference are that there will be significant changes to not only the coaching staff but also some tweaking of the roster.  With that in mind, here are some things to think about when next Tuesday arrives:

QUARTERBACK:  The big question here is what direction will the team go for a backup quarterback.  While Chris Redman has been serviceable, he’s also carried a rather large cap number ($2.55 million and previously $3.05 million).  The problem lies with how few snaps he actually takes.  Last season saw him take only 11 snaps due to injury (and they were brief injuries where Ryan returned in both the Detroit and New Orleans games) and 2010 saw him no meaningful snaps (other than mop up duty in blow outs).  Perhaps the team will want to use those millions to pursue other needs and instead turn the backup job over to John Parker Wilson.  While highly unproven, he carries a significantly cheaper cap charge and would do more than well enough in the situations described above.  The other options are to sign one or draft one but again, I think the Falcons will try to go the cheaper route.

RUNNING BACK/FULLBACK:  I was very surprised to see the team bring back Snelling.  It’s definitely not a negative that he’s back but with Coach Smith indicating a larger role for Jacquizz Rodgers, I was unsure of where the carries would come from to support the move.  The playing time may not come all at half back but he may see an increased role at fullback.  It’s hard for me to envision Ovie Mughelli returning at a cap number approaching $4 million and also difficult to imagine any kind of extension considering he’s coming off a major knee injury and turning 32 in a few months.  When looking at run blocking, Mike Cox proved to be equal to or maybe even better than Mughelli in the same amount of snaps.  Further compounding the problem is that the Falcons used a fullback in only 25% of the plays last season.  I’m leaning towards the idea that Cox will be in the backfield for the tough yards and true run blocking situations while Snelling will not only get some carries at running back but also be featured in two back sets with both Turner and Rodgers at times to give defenses multiple looks and also involve more screen options which is something that Coach Smith has foreshadowed.  Not to mention that freeing up $3 million of cap space would do wonders for the Falcons free agency needs.

TIGHT ENDS:  With Gonzalez and Palmer back, that only leaves the #3 spot open to compete with Palmer at #2.  If you had asked me prior to the combine, I’d have really believed that there would be a 50% chance that the Falcons would be drafting Coby Fleener or Orson Charles with the second round pick.  Fleener is still a possibility but Charles obviously shot himself in the foot with his DUI.  I do expect the team to do something at tight end but it may be nothing more than signing one in hopes of striking gold and waiting for next year to find Gonzalez’s replacement.

WIDE RECEIVERS:  The Falcons are set with White and Jones as the main starters for the foreseeable future.  The question to ask is what happens with the slot receiver.  Harry Douglas and Eric Weems are both free agents and Douglas understandably wants a chance to start.  With the wide receiver pool deep in free agency, he may not get that shot and find himself back with the team.  Meanwhile, Weems offers a diverse set of skills from not only as a returner but also as a tackler (second on the team to Akeem Dent) and is a capable receiver (targeted 12 times and catching 11 passes last season, the lone incompletion was not a drop).  Kerry Meier returns along with Kevin Cone who was added to the team late last year.  If both Douglas and Weems return then I would only expect a late round draft pick at most to be added.  If only Douglas returns then you’ll see us draft one earlier that would most likely have return ability.  A Travis Benjamin type receiver who could develop into the slot position while serving as a dangerous return man comes to mind.  If Weems returns then he would man the slot and you might would see Dominique Franks take over return duties.

TACKLES:  I do not believe that the starting left tackle is currently on the team.  While Will Svitek is a valuable player to have, he’s not the bookend left tackle that the team will want to hitch their wagon to.  With the struggles of Sam Baker and a cap number of $4.1 million, there’s an opportunity to shave $2.5 million off the cap and use that along with other moves mentioned to sign someone like a Marcus McNeil or Demetrius Bell.  Tyson Clabo has the right side locked down. I would not rule out a draft pick, be it early or late, being used at tackle and almost expect it.

GUARDS:  Likewise, I also don’t think the Falcons are done at guard.  While Blalock is solid at left guard, right guard is wide open.  Garrett Reynolds just isn’t a guard in my opinion and tends to play too high (and that’s largely due to his height).  He’s much better suited to be a tackle but with Clabo on the right side, I don’t see that happening.  Mike Johnson missed last season with an injury and will get a chance to compete for the position again this season.  Last year’s draft choice of Andrew Jackson will be added to the mix again as will newly signed Vince Manuwai.  Manuwai missed last season after being cut in camp due to conditioning and an ankle injury.  If he returns to form of 2009/2010 then the Falcons problems at guard may very well be solved–at least short term.  Manuwai will be 32 when season starts so a longer term solution will probably be sought.  One player I would really love for the Falcons to snag is Geoff Schwartz.  According to reports, he is not likely to be tendered by Carolina.  Although he did miss last season with a hip injury he proclaims to be 100% healthy and ready to go.  At 25 years old, he’s young and has a huge upside.  Starting for Carolina in 2010, he graded out by Pro Football Focus to be the #7 right guard in the league and also started 5 games at right tackle and graded out well there too.  That kind of versatility is very valuable and would come at a very reasonable price.  The reward easily outweighs the risk.  The draft is also very deep at guard this year and provides even more options.

CENTER:  I don’t get the impression that the team will be re-signing Todd McClure.  While thankful for all of his years of service, all signs and comments point towards taking a step towards the future with this position.  I believe that Joe Hawley (drafted in 2010 for this very purpose) will be given the shot to man the position.  I do expect the team to possibly re-sign Brett Romberg to backup or possibly draft a center to compete with Hawley.  A great draft year for interior linemen, I find myself intrigued by David Mock who will most likely be around in the mid to late rounds.

While adding a player like Carl Nicks, Evan Mathis or other big name free agent offensive linemen are definitely appealing, I don’t get the impression that is the direction the team is going to go but I do think they will and have addressed needs as far as offensive line goes.  With a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive line coach, it will be interesting to see what direction the team goes in but signing Manuwai paired with Blalock shows that they may want to go a lot bigger than they have in the past.

Tomorrow, I’ll break down the defense and special teams as we continue to take a look at what the future might hold.

Mario Williams

The more I think about it, the more it’s hard to imagine a good reason why the Falcons shouldn’t pursue Houston Texans defensive end Mario Williams on the open market come next week.

Williams is likely to be one of the most coveted free agents in recent memory. Teams are constantly looking for top pass rushers, and few would argue that Williams is not one of the best currently in the league. The Texans did not slap him with a franchise tag, and thus are likely to lose him to the highest bidder.

Given recent deals that Julius Peppers, DeMarcus Ware, and Elvis Dumervil have signed that included $40 million or more in guaranteed money, the market likely will dictate that Williams will make more. Basically, Williams will make as much money as a franchise quarterback, exceeding the guaranteed dollars that Philip Rivers and Eli Manning have received in recent years and potentially approaching the guaranteed dollars of Tom Brady ($49 million).

In fact, if the Falcons attempt to extend the contract of Matt Ryan in the next 18 months, Williams’ contract could potentially rival Ryan’s for who is the highest paid player on the team. And so the question becomes can the Falcons afford two players on the roster that are guaranteed $40-50 million. Especially in an off-season where the Falcons are likely to pay premium dollar deals to cornerback Brent Grimes ($20 million-plus guaranteed), and Curtis Lofton (potentially approaching $20 million).

I think the answer is yes, but the Falcons have to be smart about their spending. Let’s examine the biggest contract for a defensive end signed by Julius Peppers with the Chicago Bears in March 2010. That deal was worth $84 million over six years with $42 million guaranteed. Another $7.5 million could be earned via incentives. Any deal with Williams, is likely to be structured similarly.

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Atlanta is weakest at offensive tackle

Yesterday, I posted this in the forums, where I have been periodically going through the needs of all 32 teams. But I had gotten to the point where the Falcons were the next team on the slate, and given that we are approaching free agency, it was a good time to post them for the world to see.

The ratings for the team needs is a system that I developed many moons ago when I was writing for The Huddle Report, and have developed over several years. The level of need is not necessarily based off my own opinions, but my attempt to get inside the heads of the powers that be with each respective team, and in this case the Falcons and Thomas Dimitroff. They mostly apply towards but also factor in free agency as well. After the jump you can find the ratings key as well as a position-by-position breakdown.

TOP 10 NEEDS

1. OT – 4.0
2. DE – 3.5
3. TE – 3.0
4. OG – 3.0
5. RB – 2.5
6. CB – 2.0
7. WR – 2.0
8. DT – 2.0
9. QB – 1.5
10. LB – 1.5

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Curtis Lofton

The Falcons want to bring back Curtis Lofton, and that is the right decision. But the Falcons have to be careful that they do not overpay Lofton on the open market, because Lofton is not likely to be a core piece on their defense going forward. The reason for that is the league is increasingly become a passing-oriented league. The rule changes favor offenses, and particularly those that can sling the football. And the issue with Lofton is that this is the weakest part of his game.

There are several reasons why the Falcons should want Curtis Lofton back. Firsly, he is coming off arguably his best season as a pro. While he is not a dominant run defender, he certainly is a good one that is a key reason why the Falcons run defense has been so stout the past three years. Secondly, he is also developing into a leadership role. While Mike Peterson has been the leader of the linebacker corps the past three years, his time in Atlanta is at or nearing its end. At some point in the near future, someone else is going to have to step up and Lofton is as good a candidate as any to do so. While Lofton is a bit of a mild-mannered guy off the field than his more loquacious teammate Sean Weatherspoon, Lofton certainly brings an aggressive, physical disposition on the field. Lofton is a good leader by example type and their two personalities can complement each other in the locker room going forward for young Falcons.

Thirdly, Lofton is also a good middle linebacker. He’s not one of the best in the league, as he’s often portrayed as, but he is certainly above average. He is fairly consistent in playing at a solid to good level on a weekly basis. And that sort of consistency is welcomed on any defense, particularly when it comes to the guy that is at a key position such as the middle linebacker. I’ve heard it said that teams should want to reward the best people as opposed to the best players with long-term deals. And Lofton is certainly one of those players.

But before the Falcons lock Lofton up to a highly lucrative contact, they must realize that there are also some limitations. As stated before, Lofton is not the best pass defender. The league has seen the rise of tight ends and slot receivers in recent years, making the middle of the field a fertile ground for explosive passing attacks.  While Lofton has improved there in recent years, he’s not helping the Falcons win that arms race. Playing in space over the middle and being stuck on an island against good receivers is not something Lofton does very well. And if he is to be the rock at the center of the Falcons defense for years to come, he will ever increasingly have to perform in those duties. And while Lofton can continue to improve there, he’s never going to reach a point where he is considered an asset in the pass defense. A comparable Falcon of yesteryear was Keith Brooking who was similarly adequate and effective at times, but often times was a liability when it came to the better players he would find himself matched up with.

There has been talk that the Falcons would prefer that Lofton become more of a two-down player. While that could minimize some of Lofton’s deficiencies in coverage, it will make his value to this football team significantly diminished. Two-down linebackers are a dime a dozen in the NFL because the overwhelming majority of guys currently in the league could be considered such. And therefore, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Falcons to make Lofton one of the higher paid players at his position when he could be lumped into that same group.

Basically, Lofton is a good player, but limited going forward. And therefore, the Falcons need to offer him a good, but limited deal. If Lofton balks at such a deal and can make a more lucrative contract elsewhere, then good for him. That will free up the Falcons to invest money where they need to, which is improving the pass defense.

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Grubbs (69) and Dunlap (77) pose on the right with Auburn teammates

It is not a big secret that a major need for the Falcons headed into the off-season is improving their performance in the trenches. They got whipped up front by the New York Giants in the playoffs, as well as teams like Houston during the regular season. It exposed their inability to compete at the higher levels, which has been a big reason why the team has yet to win its first postseason game under Mike Smith. Getting stronger on the offensive line can be a major step forward to try and correct that issue.

D. Orlando Ledbetter wrote a few weeks back about whether or not the Falcons should try to sign Marcus McNeill, if the San Diego Chargers choose to part ways with him next month. It seems like that is a likely conclusion since the Chargers can clear $10 million in cap space by making the move. The key part of the equation will be whether McNeill can pass a physical, having suffered from chronic neck and spinal injuries over the years. He finished the year in San Diego on injured reserve due to suffering neck injuries that forced him out of two games in late October and November. He had off-season neck surgery following 2008, and had two surgeries on his knees last year in February and August.

When McNeill has been healthy, he’s been very good. The massive run blocker would be an upgrade at left tackle for the Falcons. One of the major issues with Sam Baker there has been his inability to get push in the ground game. McNeill has only been recorded with giving up 12.25 sacks over the past four seasons in 50 games played, according to STATS LLC. Compared to Baker, who according to STATS has given up 16.5 sacks in the last 28 games he’s played in Atlanta over the past two years.

An interesting proposition for the Falcons could be teaming McNeill with a former college teammate at Auburn in free agent guard Ben Grubbs. The pair started alongside each other for two seasons at Auburn before McNeill became a second round pick in 2006. Grubbs stayed for another year and was taken in the first round by the Baltimore Ravens in 2007. Grubbs has since developed into one of the better offensive guards in the league, playing in his first Pro Bowl this past year. Known for his solid run blocking and pass protection skills, he would be an upgrade at that position for the Falcons over Justin Blalock. Blalock has been serviceable to solid over his tenure in Atlanta, but is by no means a lynchpin for the team on the left side.

Grubbs is a free agent, one which the Ravens are intent on keeping. But the Ravens will be hard-pressed because they won’t be able to use their franchise tag on him (that will be reserved for running back Ray Rice), and Grubbs stands to make a pretty penny on the open market. With Carl Nicks set to hit free agency as well, and deals signed by players like Jahri Evans and Davin Joseph in recent years, whoever winds up with Grubbs is likely going to have to spend big.

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Michael Turner

I was disappointed to read that Mike Smith indicated that Michael Turner would remain in Atlanta as their feature back. I’m not at all surprised, but nonetheless disappointed. It would have been a bold move to cut a player coming off a 1300-yard rushing season, but I think it would be the most prudent move.

I think despite Turner’s production last year, I think he’s poised to have a sharp drop in his production this year. His play last year reminded me a lot of Jamal Lewis in 2007 with the Cleveland Browns. That year, Lewis finished with 1,304 yards, 4.4 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns. Much of that production came in a few games, racking up 308 yards in two outings against the Bengals, as well as 163 yards against the Bills, 118 against the Jets, and 134 yards against the Texans. The following year at age 29, Lewis struggled, plodding his way to a 1,002-yard season, but only averaging 3.6 yards per carry and finishing with 4 touchdowns. I mention some of those strong performances Lewis had in 2007 because they came against some of the league’s weaker run defenses that year.

Turner’s production from this past year mirrors that with some strong performances against some of the league’s weaker run defenses, notably teams like Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and New Orleans.

Turner just turned 30 nearly two weeks ago, and many will say that he’s a relatively young 30 because he didn’t get a lot of carries in his early to mid 20s. But just because they say it, doesn’t make it true. When you watch Turner, he moves like a guy that is 30 years old. The Falcons potentially open themselves up to having a 2008 Jamal Lewis-type year where Turner just plods his way to a high rushing total despite being very lackluster in doing so.

Smith indicates that the team will make strides to keep Turner’s “pitch count” down by trying to work in the other backs. But the best way to limit Turner’s pitch count is probably to eliminate him from the roster altogether.

The problem with Turner is not that he can’t be sporadically an effective player anymore because he’s a black hole. Now what exactly do I mean by that? A black hole is often considered one of the most destructive forces in the universe because it’s extremely high gravity sucks in everything and utterly destroys it.

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Marcus McNeill

Every year just before the start of free agency, you have a number of veteran players get cut by their respective teams because they are either too old, too hurt, or too expensive to keep. These players are often labeled cap casualties, and can supplement the normal unrestricted free agent pool that we see every March.

The Falcons will have their own players that could be dumped in this fashion. Michael Turner, Ovie Mughelli, Sam Baker, Peria Jerry, and Dunta Robinson are all players that are under contract and the topic has at least been broached that they have seen their last games as Falcons. In all likelihood the Falcons will keep most if not all of those players simply because they don’t need the cap space as reports indicate roughly $30 million available to the Falcons. And for those that are underachieving such as Baker, Jerry, and Robinson, there is some hope that the changes in the coaching staff can breath new life into their careers in Atlanta.

Here are some names that have been bandied about in recent weeks as potential cap cuts from other teams that could at least be interesting to the Falcons. This is not meant to be a comprehensive list of players that could be cut, but just some more of the prominent names and fits I could find. A hat tip goes to Jason La Canfora of NFL.com and Brian McIntyre of Football Outsiders that were my primary sources.

Running Back

The Falcons appear intent on keeping Michael Turner, so this doesn’t appear to be an area that they will likely address. But if the Falcons were to part ways with Turner and look for a veteran physical back to team with Jacquizz Rodgers, Brandon Jacobs (Giants) could be a possibility. Jacobs at this point in his career is a part-time player, but as he showed against the Falcons in the playoffs and down the stretch, he can be very effective in that role.

Wide Receiver

If you could rewind five years, this list would feature some of the league’s top wide receivers with Hines Ward (Steelers), Chad Ochocinco (Patriots), Lee Evans (Ravens), and Donald Driver (Packers) all being potentially on the chopping block this off-season. The Falcons have already been linked to Ward by some outlets, but he is a shell of his former self. He along with Driver could make effective veteran slot options if the Falcons were to lose Harry Douglas via free agency, but neither offer as much value as Douglas does at these points in their careers. Ochocinco and Evans have a bit more left in the tank, and could definitely help the Falcons add a third wideout that can get vertical. Evan was supposed to serve that same role with the Ravens last year, but only caught 4 passes in 9 games. Ochocinco couldn’t handle the complex Patriots offense (15 catches), but he still has enough skill to be a starter on some team in this league. And playing in a decidedly less complex offense like the one likely to be employed in Atlanta could help him improve his production.

Tight End

Dirk Koetter’s offense makes ample use of the H-back position, a role that would likely be currently filled by Michael Palmer. But the Falcons could potentially upgrade that spot by going after one of these names in Chris Cooley (Redskins), Dallas Clark (Colts), or Kellen Winslow (Buccaneers). Cooley and Winslow are both dealing with knee injuries that could definitely limit their effectiveness. Clark was practically a no-show for much of the Colts season with the loss of Peyton Manning. Cooley and Clark could work very well in an H-back role, being split out in space much like a slot receiver. Winslow if he can rebound potentially offers the team an heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez, who is expected to retire after this season.

Offensive Tackle

The Falcons have already been linked to Marcus McNeill, who could be cut by the Chargers due to lingering back and neck problems. Injury concerns and age will also likely cause the Packers to cut Chad Clifton as well. While McNeill will only be 28, his injuries probably make his body seem closer that of the 35-year old Clifton. Clifton is not a long-term fix, but as a one-year solution even if he only played half the season would be 8 better games than what the Falcons have gotten out of the position in recent years. Also in the mix could be Jason Smith, who has disappointed in St. Louis, but might still be a salvageable talent. Right tackles Jammal Brown (Redskins) and Winston Justice (Eagles) might also be cut this off-season due to making more money than their production merits. Brown was once a solid left tackle for the Saints, before injuries have sapped him the past few years.

Offensive Guard

Steve Hutchinson (Vikings), Eric Steinbach (Browns), and Chris Kemoeatu (Steelers) all could be cut. All three are left guards, but could offer a quick fix at the right guard position for the Falcons. Hutchinson was the top guard in the league for years, but at age 34 might only have another year left in the tank. Kemoeatu could offer a beefy run blocker, but struggled through this past year with a bum knee and penalties. Steinbach missed all of this past year with a back injury, which never bodes well for offensive linemen.

Defensive End

While it seems doubtful, the Colts could part ways with Dwight Freeney. If so, Freeney still offers a lot of value as a pass rusher. But if the Falcons are content to let John Abraham walk via free agency, replacing him with a 32-year old Freeney would not be a significant infusion of youth. Aaron Kampman has been injured a lot in Jacksonville, but could provide a veteran presence to the rotation if the Falcons were to lose Abraham and potentially Kroy Biermann as well. Darryl Tapp (Eagles) is a good run defender and decent pass rusher that can be an effective starter if need be, but ideally is a No. 3 end on most teams.

Defensive Tackle

It doesn’t seem like the Lions will part ways with 31-year old Corey Williams, but it’s been rumored. He would be a good pickup to the Falcons rotation, as he’s shined over the years as a situational rusher on third downs. Tommy Kelly (Raiders) is the same age and has been a solid pass rusher over the years (14.5 sacks combined the past two years) that could be a really good asset in nickel situations for the Falcons. His teammate John Henderson could beef up the rotation as a stout run defender. He’s on his last legs, but could potentially provide more value as a run defender on early downs, which could allow a young guy like Corey Peters to do what he does best: rush the quarterback.

Linebacker

The Panthers might part ways with Thomas Davis, who is coming off three ACL tears. If he manages to even play in 2012, it might be unprecedented achievement. But Davis offers much of what this team needs at the linebacker position, which is someone that can help combat the quality tight ends in the league, and in this division. The Panthers were the league’s worst team with defending the tight end in 2011, and a big reason was the absence of Davis. Gary Brackett (Colts) might be cut if the Colts do intend to employ a different scheme. He would be a nice pickup for the Falcons if they lose Curtis Lofton in the middle.

Defensive Back

A number of veterans are likely to get cut here. Domonique Foxworth (Ravens) is a former Falcon that has struggled to stay healthy in Baltimore, but is only 28 and still might have some years left ahead of him. Ron Bartell (Rams) offers that big, physical corner that Mike Nolan’s defenses tend to prefer but he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy. Shawntae Spencer (49ers) played under Nolan in San Francisco, and he along with Terence Newman (Cowboys) and Marcus Trufant (Seahawks) are veterans that could help out at nickel. But it remains to be seen if any of those guys would be better options for the Falcons than just re-signing a player like Kelvin Hayden. Cedric Griffin (Vikings) is fast and physical and could be a nice pickup.

As for safeties, Michael Huff (Raiders) is a former teammate of Griffin’s at Texas, that also brings a lot of speed and athletic ability to that position. He could be a nice pickup as a replacement and potential upgrade over Thomas DeCoud at free safety.

It’s also worth mentioning that while they aren’t expected to be cut, cornerback Asante Samuel (Eagles) and defensive end Osi Umenyiora (Giants) appear headed for the trading block. Considering the Falcons have a finite amount of draft picks, it’s doubtful they would get heavily involved in courting either, particularly Samuel. The Falcons defense prides itself on being physical, and Samuel is anything but that as a cornerback. But he is still one of the premier ball-hawks in the league, and coupling him with a successfully re-signed Brent Grimes could be a potent mix. Umenyiora might be a bit more up the Falcons alley. He’s 30, which makes him a few years younger than either Freeney or Abraham and thus probably has a bit more left in the tank. The issue with him is whether he can give the Falcons a full slate of games. He missed 7 games this past year with injury. Also, Osi isn’t exactly known for his ability to defend the run. The same could have been said for John Abraham prior to joining the Falcons, and he improved, so that might not be as big an obstacle as initially perceived.

Thomas DeCoud

DeCoud has been up and down as a Falcon, but he’s generally been solid as the team’s free safety. Sanders was a nice late summer addition because he can play either safety spot, filling in that depth role vacated by Erik Coleman. There was some hope that when Sanders was signed, he could give the Falcons cause to let DeCoud walk if need be. But Sanders did not quite play at that level this year. He was serviceable when asked to fill in, but was not a significant upgrade when he was on the field versus when DeCoud suited up.

New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will have to make a decision on whether he thinks DeCoud or Sanders can potentially be the quarterback of the secondary in this new scheme. Or he will have to find another option.

One obvious alternative choice would be DaShon Goldson, a player that Nolan drafted in San Francisco. Goldson is coming off a breakout season where he had 6 interceptions. The concern with Goldson is that up until this year, he really was not anything more than an above average player. And any team that is going to pay him will have to determine if his emergence was due to his natural progression and development, or simply because of the introduction of a new scheme by Vic Fangio. If it’s the latter, then there is a buyer’s beware on him.

Outside Goldson, there are few free safeties that jump out for the Falcons to sign. Jim Leonhard (Jets) has a bit of the intangibles that the Falcons probably would want as leader in their secondary, but he’s finished his second straight season on injured reserve and will be 30 in October. His teammate Brodney Pool is a ballhawk, but a bit too one-dimensional as he’s a suspect run defender.

Reggie Nelson is known by head coach Mike Smith, and played well as a rookie in 2007. But in the ensuing years after Smith’s departure, his play dropped off significantly. But he had a nice bounce-back season this past year in Cincinnati. But the issue with Nelson is whether you can count on him to maintain that level of play.

One other player near the top of the list is Tennessee’s Michael Griffin. Griffin has not quite developed into the elite safety the Titans envisioned when they made him their top pick in 2007. But he is a fast, athletic safety that at least offers some upside.

But in truth, there are no obvious upgrades over a player such as DeCoud on the market. When examining their entire bodies of work, nobody’s really stands out above his. This is the classic sort of free agent market where mid-level starting safeties get overpaid. If the Falcons can re-up with DeCoud on a hometown discount, that probably makes the most sense.

If the Falcons lose Sanders and are looking for more of a utility backup, one option out there is Jordan Babineaux, younger brother of Jonathan. Babineaux can play either safety spot as well as nickel cornerback, giving the team options there. But in the end, the Falcons should probably try and keep both DeCoud and Sanders. If they were to prioritize one over the other, then DeCoud is probably the better choice. But if the Falcons are going to want to find a player that is a significant upgrade at free safety, they will need to focus on finding him in the draft.

Brent Grimes

That decision is centered on whether they bring back Brent Grimes or opt to let him walk via free agency. Grimes is one of the few impact defenders on that side of the ball and based off that fact alone it should be a no-brainer to keep him. But the question isn’t that simple, as the factor of money plays a huge part in Grimes’ future in Atlanta.

Two years ago, the Falcons made Dunta Robinson one of the league’s highest paid corners by giving him a deal that averages $9.5 million a year and included $22.5 million in guaranteed money. That contract paid Robinson over $30 million in the first three years of his contract, paying him more money than what the Falcons gave to their top wideout Roddy White the previous summer.

Robinson was essentially paid to be a premier corner, the caliber of player that could take on the league’s best receivers, and not only contain them but potentially shut them down. But what has occurred in the time since is that Grimes has developed into that player. That became very obvious when he transformed into “Optimus Grimes” and contained the league’s premier receiver in Week 7′s win over Detroit.

So now the Falcons have a potential dilemma on their hands. If any player on this roster deserves to make Robinson’s salary, it is Grimes. But the Falcons don’t seem inclined to part ways with Robinson, thanks in large part to the minimal savings it would net towards this year’s salary cap. So the Falcons are essentially having to ask themselves the question: Can they afford to pay two guys that type of money?

And whether that answer is yes or no, will reflect whether or not Grimes is a Falcon in 2012.

And if the answer is no, then the Falcons defense could be in trouble. While Dominique Franks had his moments late in the season as an injury replacement for Grimes, he is still a very far cry from providing the caliber of skills that Grimes has over the past two years. And thus the Falcons are going to need to find more help at this position if they lose Grimes.

And if the Falcons are unwilling to pay a high premium for Grimes, it’s unlikely that they are going to get into bidding wars for the other top free agent corners on the market that include Cortland Finnegan, Carlos Rogers, Brandon Carr, Tracy Porter, and Terrell Thomas.

Instead, the Falcons will likely have to look at some bargain players. The chances that Kelvin Hayden returns will probably increase if Grimes departs. Players such as Kelly Jennings, Richard Marshall, Rashean Mathis, Jason Allen, and Will Allen are all available free agents that have past experience with members of this coaching staff. With the exception of Marshall, who is only 27, all of those guys are older veterans that can at least provide the team with a decent insurance policy in case Franks or Chris Owens aren’t ready to be the starter. But all would be short-term stopgaps at best, essentially no different than the team’s decision to sign Brian Williams a few years back.

Detroit’s Eric Wright, New York’s Aaron Ross, and Chicago’s Zack Bowman might also be worthwhile targets that will likely be allowed to test their markets by their respective teams.

Either way, it appears clear that the best option available remains Grimes. And while he could be one of the more expensive options, he’s a known commodity. But new DC Mike Nolan has generally shown a preference for bigger, more physical corners than Grimes, and thus might influence their decision to pass on keeping him under the expectation that he won’t be as good going forward in Nolan’s scheme as he has been in recent years under Brian VanGorder.

If the Falcons were to retain Grimes, then there would be little issue at this position. They could continue with Grimes and Robinson as the starters, and continue to develop Franks as the nickel corner with the hope that in the future he could develop into a capable starter. Re-signing Grimes makes things a lot easier on the team.

If not, then they will likely be looking for a stopgap for a year or so in the hopes that Franks takes a huge leap forward, Robinson starts to play up to his price tag, and/or buying them a year in the hopes that they can use a top pick on a corner in the 2013 draft. It’s a huge decision, and it really could color the outlook of this defense for years to come. If they keep Grimes, they should be fairly confident that it will stabilize the secondary for years to come, an area that has been a major weakness for the Falcons over the years. If not, then they are gambling that current players on their roster will step as well as hoping that they can find that stabilizing piece in future off-seasons.

As far as I see it, why roll the dice?