Sean Renfree

Height: 6-3 1/8
Weight: 219
School: Duke
Class: Senior
Speed: 4.76 (estimate)

Was recruited by Jim Harbaugh at Stanford, but ultimately chose Duke when Andrew Luck landed there. Became the starter as a redshirt sophomore. Showed improvement with his production every year, culminating in career highs in completions, completion percentage, and touchdowns as a senior. Posted his best record as a starter that year, leading Duke to a 6-6 record and their first bowl appearance since 1994. Nearly led the Blue Devils to a win over Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, but a last minute touchdown pass lifted the Bearcats over them. Wound up injuring himself on the last play of the game, getting hit and tearing his pectoral muscle. That torn pec led to him not throwing in the off-season and not working out at either the Combine or his pro day. Is expected to begin throwing at some point in May before training camp begins. Renfree was coached by David Cutcliffe, a noted QB guru, at Duke. Pretty much every starting QB that has played under Cutcliffe since 1991 has played in the NFL: Heath Shuler (1991-93), Peyton Manning (1994-97), Tee Martin (1998), Romaro Miller (1999-00), Eli Manning (2000-03), Brady Quinn (2005), Erik Ainge (2006-07), Thad Lewis (2008-09), to Renfree. He was a three-time Academic All-ACC selection as well as served as Duke’s team captain his final two years.

CAREER STATS

2012: 12 GP/12 GS, 297 comp., 441 att. (67.3%), 3113 yds, 19 TDs, 10 INTs; 1 rush TD
2011: 12/12-282-434-65.0-2891-14-11-4
2010: 12/11-285-464-61.4-3131-14-17-4
2009: 5/0-34-50-68.0-330-4-2-0
2008: redshirted

- Missed 1 game in 2012 with an elbow injury
- tore ACL in 2009, missing final 2 games of season

2012 GAMES WATCHED

• at Wake Forest (9/29): Short (<10 yds): 19 of 23 (82.6%), 99 yds (4.3 YPA), 129 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 poor throws, 0 drops, 1 throwaway; Deep (10+ yds): 3 of 5 (60%), 105 yds (21.0 YPA), 26 YAC, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 poor throw, 1 drop
• at Virginia Tech (10/13): Short: 14 of 18 (77.8%), 98 yds (5.4 YPA), 62 YAC, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 drops, 2 throwaways; Deep: 6 of 15 (40%), 137 yds (9.1 YPA), 37 YAC, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 poor throws, 2 drops
• vs. Miami (11/24): Short: 28 of 41 (68.3%), 175 yds (4.3 YPA), 117 YAC, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 poor throws, 3 drops, 2 throwaways; Deep: 8 of 18 (44.4%), 261 yds (14.5 YPA), 105 YAC, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 4 poor throws, 3 drops
• vs. Cincinnati (12/27): Short: 29 of 31 (93.5%), 215 yds (6.9 YPA), 183 YAC, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 1 throwaway; Deep: 7 of 17 (41.2%), 138 yds (8.1 YPA), 20 YAC, 1 TD, 1 INT, 6 poor throws, 2 drops, 1 throwaway

SKILLS
These are general skills required for his position and relative to not only top collegiate prospects, but also NFL players. Grades are based on a 10-point rating scale: 1-pathetic, 2-poor, 3-weak, 4-below average, 5-average, 6-above average, 7-good, 8-very good, 9-excellent, 10-elite

Arm Strength (6.5) – Capable of making all of the throws. Shows some decent touch on some of his vertical throws, particularly deep posts or seam throws. Has a nice quick release that can get velocity on the ball coming out on his intermediate throws. Shows potential to drive the ball if he can step into his throws, but rarely does on the vertical routes. Has a tendency to put a lot of air on his deeper throws, floating some throws which can allow defenders to make plays on it. Underthrows his receivers quite a bit on intermediate/deep routes, but then will also overthrow them at times, particularly when he’s asked to throw towards the sideline on wheel routes.

Accuracy (6.0) – Has decent accuracy. Shows some anticipation and good accuracy on some throws, throwing before his receivers come out of his breaks. Will lead guys over the middle at times. At times will throw away from the defender, able to put the ball where only his guy can get it. But doesn’t do that consistently. Too often will throw behind his receivers and make his guys work extra hard on what should be short, easy throws. Can be late on some reads and throws. His accuracy is erratic when he’s asked to throw intermediate/deep passes.

Mobility (4.5) – Has nice athleticism for his size. Comfortable on the rollouts and bootlegs as he can throw on the move. Occasionally will tuck it on the zone read and make a defender miss on the edge. Willing to tuck the ball and run to pick up yardage when the play isn’t there. Has some ability to climb in the pocket and slide to avoid pressure, but not a guy that really is going to avoid pressure in the pocket consistently at the next level.

Decision Making (7.0) – Generally makes good decisions with the football, although on occasion will make a poor read and throw into double coverage. Understands how to manage the game. Doesn’t show great field vision however as most of his throws and off one read. Isn’t asked to read entire field as the majority of his throws are quick throws such as WR screens, throws into the flat, designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly and towards the perimeter due to a porous offensive line. Is rarely asked to go to his second progression besides a checkdown, and when he does his effectiveness dips. But he’s certainly a smart guy that his bad decisions are rare and may only happen once or twice a game.

Mechanics (5.0) – Has a nice, sound release and throwing motion. But needs to improve his footwork. Much of his struggles there might stem from playing so much out of the shotgun and can often be a catch and release guy with his quick throws and reads. Does take some snaps from center and shows good footwork when he does. But doesn’t consistently play balanced and some of his issues with accuracy might stem from that. Will throw off his back foot at times, and doesn’t do a good job stepping into his throws downfield. Putting him into a dropback offense and refining his footwork should improve his ability to throw downfield as well as his accuracy.

Pocket Awareness (4.0) – Shows some ability to slide and move to avoid pressure in the pocket. But has a tendency to get happy feet when his initial read isn’t there and will try to escape the pocket too often when asked to go to his second progression. Takes more sacks than he needs to because of that lack of ideal pocket mobility and his eye level dips in the face of pressure. Doesn’t keep his eyes downfield consistently, especially when he’s dealing with interior pressure.

Intangibles (6.0) – Should get a lot of credit for helping Duke to their first bowl game in 18 years during his senior year. Showed some ability to come back in games where they were down, and didn’t show a tendency to press in those situations. Noted for his character and toughness, as his former college coach compared his competitiveness and work ethic to the Manning brothers.

VALUE

Renfree has the tools to compete at the NFL level with good size, arm, and decent athleticism. He is more of a game manager than a guy that possesses the physical tools to be a playmaker at the position. He is smart and can be a solid developmental backup. He needs time to polish some of the kinks of his game, but has enough upside to be a competent No. 2 quarterback. That merits a late round look, but his lack of long-term upside as a starter probably means he’s best coming off the board in the sixth or seventh round.

Grade: 2.8 – These players may have enough in one area to think he might be able to contribute as a reserve, but more than likely their ability to stick will largely depend on their ability to play on special teams. They can be developed as depth, but have almost no upside to be a starter. Click here to read more on my grading system.

OVERVIEW

Renfree has some potential. His accuracy and arm strength should be able to be improved at the next level, particularly if his footwork is refined. Playing in a shotgun heavy offense that utilized a lot of zone read, I think didn’t help him develop that. He shouldn’t have a major issue transitioning to a more traditional dropback offense like the Falcons run.

He has the ability and potential to develop into a long-term backup for Matt Ryan. There’s a lot of his game that reminds me of Ryan but his arm might be slightly stronger. The biggest negative on Renfree is his ability to stand up to pressure. That’s something he struggled with, particularly interior pressure. Ryan has the same issue, and like him, Renfree is going to have rely on his brain to get him out of those situations rather than his athleticism like Dominique Davis. Thus, Ryan is a good mentor for Renfree to have because potentially you’re trying to mold him into a similar player. Renfree isn’t lacking in intelligence, so it shouldn’t be a major issue grasping the Falcons offense. If he has time to learn the offense, it will help in his development.

One of my major concerns about Renfree is durability. In all four games I watched from him this year, he left at one point with an injury. Some of them were minor which forced him to miss a play or two here, or perhaps a series there. And the fact that he was unable to work out all off-season due to the pectoral injury doesn’t exactly make me any more confident about his durability going forward. That’s going to be a key issue if he’s going to be developed into a reliable reserve, since the whole point of a backup quarterback is someone that can come in when your starter is injured. If the backup is also frequently injured, then he’s not going to be a reliable No. 2 player.

If Renfree develops, he can be an effective stopgap starter that can do similar things to Ryan. As long as he receivers that can win on the outside (which he currently has in Atlanta) and can be protected, he should be able to win games in the event that he is starter. But he ideally needs at least two years of development to polish up his footwork and learn the offense before you can expect that sort of production.

He should be able to come in and push Davis for the backup job, but I would not expect him to win it right away, not unless Davis performed poorly. The more interesting battle should happen in 2014 after Renfree has a year to recover from his injury, add some muscle in the weight room, and learn the offense. They represent two different types of players and it would be interesting to see which eventually wins out as the long-term backup to Ryan. If Cutcliffe isn’t blowing smoke about Renfree’s work ethic and competitiveness, he probably represents the more traditional No. 2 that you see around the league. Due to his intelligence, he should be ideally suited to being the backup since so much of that during the season is taking mental reps. But again, before that becomes a possibility I’d like him to get a year or two to really polish some of the physical kinks out of his game, particularly his footwork.

Ledbetter also reports that a pair of rookies will be limited for the start of OTAs: defensive end Stansly Maponga who is recovering from surgery on his broken foot in March, and quarterback Sean Renfree who suffered a torn pectoral at the end of December both were limited throughout the pre-draft process and off-season.

Zeke Motta

Height: 6-2 1/4
Weight: 215
School: Notre Dame
Class: Senior
Speed: 4.71 (Campus)

He split reps with Jamoris Slaughter during his sophomore and junior seasons at strong safety, playing opposite Harrison Smith. After Smith was drafted in 2012, he moved to free safety as a senior in his lone season as a full-time starter. He had career highs in tackles. Not a great coverage guy, Motta has good size and is an active run defender. But like many of his Notre Dame brethren, Motta’s stock was hurt by the fact that he had an underwhelming game against Alabama in the National Championship. He did lead the team with tackles in that game, recording a career-high 16 but many of those were made several yards downfield after successful Alabama runs or throws. Then his stock was hurt even more with a slow 40 time at the Combine (4.83). His first name is short for Ezekiel.

CAREER STATS

2012: 13 GP/13 GS, 77 tackles, 2 TFLs, 0 sacks, 0 INTs, 3 PD, 0 FF, 1 FR
2011: 13/8-40-0.0-0.0-1-3-1-1 (1 FR for touchdown)
2010: 13/8-50-1.5-0.0-1-3-0-1
2009: 12/0-12-0.5-0.5-0-0-0-0

2012 GAMES WATCHED

vs. Stanford (10/13): 2 targets, 1 rec., 22 yards (11.0 YPA), 3 YAC (3.0 avg), 0 TDs; 1 missed tackle
vs. Pittsburgh (11/3): 0 tgt, 0 rec, 0 yds, 0 TD
at USC (11/24): 2 tgt., 0 rec, 0 yds, 0 TD; 1 TFL
vs. Alabama (1/7): 2 tgt., 1 rec., 27 yds (13.5 YPA), 3 YAC (3.0 avg), 0 TDs, 1 PD; 5 missed tackles

SKILLS
These are general skills required for his position and relative to not only top collegiate prospects, but also NFL players. Grades are based on a 10-point rating scale: 1-pathetic, 2-poor, 3-weak, 4-below average, 5-average, 6-above average, 7-good, 8-very good, 9-excellent, 10-elite

Speed (5.5) – Plays faster than his timed speed and shows good closing burst on the edge. Has enough speed to get to the edge and prevent speedy back from turning the corner. Good short-area burst to come downhill and defend the run. Shows decent speed and burst to close on crossing receivers over the middle.

Tackling (6.0) – Does a pretty good job wrapping up. Is a capable hitter that shows some pop against smaller receivers. But struggles to tackle powerful backs as well as quick ones as they can slip his tackles or run him over. Really struggled against Alabama with the jump cuts to the outside.

Man Coverage (4.0) - Shows decent footwork when working in coverage, but he’s not a guy that is good at turning and running with receivers. Not a guy you want matched up on an island against speedy wideouts, as they continually run by him. But his size and speed might be enough of a match against tight ends, albeit he’d struggle against the top ones.

Zone Coverage (5.0) – When working in centerfield, too often lets fast receivers get behind him. Does his best work when he’s allowed to keep things underneath and does a good job closing on the receiver and ball to make the hit or stop immediately after the catch.

Ball Skills (4.0) – DIdn’t have many opportunities to make plays in coverage and rarely did. Has a decent nose for the ball when defending the run, but will take some bad angles from time to time.

Range (5.0) – Doesn’t have ideal speed and range to make that many plays outside the numbers when he’s asked to cover the deep half in Cover-2. Shows decent range when working in centerfield.

VALUE

Motta is a solid player, but has limited potential at the next level because he’s lacking as a playmaker in coverage. He’s a smart player that is a capable run defender, but his upside on defense will be limited by his less than stellar speed, range, and cover skills. He’ll have to contribute on special teams to stick long-term at the next level. He’s worth a look in the seventh round due to his special teams ability and ability to add decent depth.

Grade: 3.0 – Has enough tools to stick on the NFL level, but tend to be journeyman over the long haul. Unless they can really form a niche as a reserve or special teams ability, they will have a hard time getting a second contract with a team. These players tend to provide depth, but if they are forced to start for more than a game or two, your team is going to be in trouble. Click here for more on my grading system.

OVERVIEW

Motta could be compared to a poor man’s Harrison Smith. But the main difference is that Smith was a much stronger player (19 vs. 11 bench reps at the Combine) and faster (4.54 40 time vs. 4.75) and was a much more consistent playmaker, particularly when it came to coverage. Simply put, Motta hardly made an impact there.

He played quite a bit of Cover-2 in Notre Dame’s defense and was solid at it. But there were times against top receivers that they would be able to get behind him (Amari Cooper and Marqise Lee being two prominent examples) for potential big gains. His performance against Alabama was a major disappointment due to the sheer number of missed tackles. But as with other Notre Dame defenders, that game seemed an aberration from his performance in previous games.

Motta’s upside at the next level likely is a decent backup strong safety. The players he reminds me of is Jon McGraw. McGraw had a bit more range and ability in coverage. But like McGraw, Motta really is ideally suited to being a reserve rather than a starter. McGraw was a productive special teams player in his prime that could serve as an effective spot starter in stints with the Jets, Lions, and Chiefs. But with more extensive playing time due to injuries of players ahead of him, he struggled and got exposed.

Motta is likely to be the same way. For a game or two, you think he could make a decent strong safety. Especially a few years down the line when he’s much more comfortable with the defensive scheme of Nolan. But he’s not going to be a regular member of defense because he’s limited as a cover guy. He might be able to compete for a role in the dime subpackage as an in-the-box safety that functions as an extra linebacker. But that’s about it.

In fact, there’s the possibility that a team could bulk up Motta and try to make him into a linebacker. In that way, one could compare him to Coy Wire. But the difference was Wire was a much stronger player and was a linebacker in college. He was undersized for the position and thusly was moved to safety in the NFL, before finding his way back to linebacker. Motta’s skillset is more akin to a linebacker, but he’d have to pack on at least another 10-15 pounds of muscle, something that won’t happen overnight.

So if a team is looking to convert him to a linebacker position, then they’ll have to wait at least a year or two before they can expect to contribute. And while his coverage issues won’t be as apparent as a linebacker, he’ll still be average in that realm and likely to struggle if he was to get extensive reps on defense.

In the end, Motta is likely going to have to make an immediate impact on special teams to stick in Atlanta. He has a little bit more upside to contribute defensively because I think he’s a little more athletic and has better size than Kemal Ishmael, but it’s only a marginal upgrade. Like Ishmael, if Motta was to get extensive reps he’d be exposed. Best case scenario is that he’s a hybrid linebacker-safety that can be a high-level producer on special teams. If so, then he could be like McGraw and be able to play a decade in the NFL. If not, then he’ll likely wash out of the league after a few years.

Kemal Ishmael

I have to be honest, when the Falcons made Kemal Ishmael the first of three seventh round picks, I didn’t have a clue who he was. But I went back and watched tape of him while he was at Central Florida, and here is what I came away with…

Height: 5-10 3/4
Weight: 201
School: Central Florida
Class: Senior
Speed: 4.63 (Campus)

A four-year starter that started 49 consecutive games over his career at UCF at free safety. Ishmael was a highly productive run-defending safety that was a tackling machine during his days in school. He led the Golden Knights defense in tackles in his last three years, culminating in a senior year where he had career highs in every statistical category. He had a knack for making plays, including a total of 6 turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles). He set the school record for career tackles among defensive backs. A player that lacks ideal NFL measurables, but managed to get by with toughness, work ethic, and leadership. He hails from the same high school in Miami as Louis Delmas, currently with the Detroit Lions.

CAREER STATS

2012: 14 GP/14 GS, 124 tackles, 5 TFLs, 1 sack, 3 INTs, 4 PBU, 3 FF, 3 FR
2011: 12/12-81-2.5-0.0-0-3-1-1
2010: 14/14-93-1.0-0.0-2-5-2-1
2009: 13/9-70-1.0-0.0-1-1-0-1

2012 GAMES WATCHED

at UTEP (11/10): 1 target, 1 rec., 41 yards (41.0 YPA), 8 YAC (8.0 avg), 0 TDs, 1 INT; 2 missed tackles
at Tulsa (12/1): 1 tgt, 0 rec., 0 yds, 0 TD; 1 FF, 1 run stuff, 1 penalty (pass interference)
vs. Ball State (12/21): 2 tgt., 1 rec., 16 yds (8.0 YPA), 3 YAC (3.0 avg), 0 TDs, 1 PD; 1 FF, 1 QB Hit, 1 pressure

SKILLS
These are general skills required for his position and relative to not only top collegiate prospects, but also NFL players. Grades are based on a 10-point rating scale: 1-pathetic, 2-poor, 3-weak, 4-below average, 5-average, 6-above average, 7-good, 8-very good, 9-excellent, 10-elite

Speed (5.0) – Doesn’t have great speed to cover a lot of ground, but has decent speed. Shows good short-area burst when coming downhill to defend the run. Doesn’t have the ideal speed to match up in coverage as most NFL wideouts will run right by him.

Tackling (7.0) – Is a consistent and technically sound wrap tackler. Consistently sees what he hits. Not afraid to take on bigger guys at the point of attack, including squaring up and coming downhill against a 260-pound fullback running full steam. Is a solid hitter that isn’t afraid to throw his body around to deliver a shot to a ballcarrier. Understands angles and has a good nose for the ball, which usually puts him in a position to make the play against the run. His lack of size hurts him as NFL-sized backs and tight ends will give him trouble. He’ll miss his fair share at the next level because of that, but for the most part is and should remain a reliable, open-field tackler.

Man Coverage (3.0) – Doesn’t play with hips or balance you want in a guy that is comfortable working in man coverage. Tends to grab receivers when working against them, which can lead to some penalties. Lack of speed and size will make it difficult for him to cover most NFL receivers and tight ends downfield. Might just be limited to covering backs in the flat or any other receiver on shorter routes. Does his best work when he’s able to keep things in front of him, rather than being asked to turn and run with opposing players.

Zone Coverage (4.5) – Is comfortable working either in Cover-1 or Cover-2 alignments as that was predominantly what he did at UCF. Does a decent job as a centerfielder not letting receivers get behind him and isn’t often out of position when working the deeper half of the field. But his lack of ideal speed, range, and ball skills limit his ability to impact in zone coverage.

Ball Skills (5.5) – Shows ball skills on the few opportunities he was in position to make a play in coverage. Didn’t always do a great job tracking the deep ball in the air. His knack for stripping the ball indicates he does possess ball skills there. Also has a good nose for the ball and is consistently around it.

Range (4.0) – Lack of speed limits him here. Struggles to make plays outside the numbers because of that, as the majority of his positive plays in coverage and against the run come between the hashmarks where his ability to cover ground is not challenged as much.

VALUE

Ishmael is a run-defending safety that is active, heady, and tough. But his lack of size and speed will limit his effectiveness at the next level as most of starting NFL players are simply on a different level athletically and physically than him. He’s a player that projects at best as a career backup on defense. But he becomes draftable largely because of his potential to impact on special teams. He is only worth a seventh round pick at that point, but is a worthwhile pickup at the tail-end of the round because of his potential on special teams.

Grade: 2.6 – Might be a productive college player that is usually lacking in several key areas that make you think their ability to stick on the next level is limited. Usually players that can only play on special teams, and have the skillset to be effective there. But if he is asked to contribute offensively or defensively, he’ll be overmatched in all but the most limited role. Click here to read more on my grading system.

OVERVIEW

Earlier I mentioned Louis Delmas as an alumnus of Ishmael’s high school. I mentioned that because I believe Ishmael could be compared to Delmas, albeit a poor man’s version of him. But Delmas is a more explosive and dynamic player which allows him to be a quality starting safety with the Lions when healthy, while Ishmael will struggle to do that. But like Delmas, Ishmael’s lack of size will likely lead him to be more susceptible to injury at the next level because his “take no prisoners” style of play will cause a lot of unnecessary wear and tear on him.

Simply put, Ishmael is going to struggle to compete on defense. But he certainly has the capacity and potential to make up for it on special teams. The type of player I ultimately could see him developing into a Jamaal Fudge-type of player. Fudge was another undersized safety that was predominantly a special teams guy and came over from Jacksonville alongside Mike Smith in 2008. In the season finale that year, with Lawyer Milloy injured, Fudge started that game (his lone start of his career) and had a fairly solid game (10 tackles). Like Fudge, Ishmael ultimately could develop into a player that is competent enough to start in a pinch for a game or two and you’d be comfortable with him in that role. But with extended reps he’ll likely get exposed and thus filling in for more than a game or two would likely net negative results.

I think if he was develop into a contributor on defense, it might come in the dime subpackage. His lack of speed, range, and cover skills will limit how effective he can be as a centerfielder in comparison to a player like Thomas DeCoud, who is not lacking in those areas (speed and range are arguably DeCoud’s best attributes). Instead, playing up in the box and acting as a second linebacker is probably suited best to Ishmael’s skillset. That way he’s not forced to run downfield with faster receivers or bigger tight ends, and can cover backs on the shorter routes which won’t stress his speed issues as much. While he’s not afraid to mix it up in the box with blockers, again his lack of size hurts him because it makes it hard for him to get off blocks against tight ends and linemen. So even then, it’s not really ideal and he’s probably not going to be the type of guy that merits more than a handful of snaps in said subpackage. And more than likely, he’s going to be the backup to the dime specialist, as opposed to the guy himself. I just don’t see him being a major contributor on defense outside that role.

Where he is going to impact in Atlanta is on special teams. The play against Tulsa, where he took on a 260-pound fullback really stood out to me. In that situation, most players would have ducked their head, lowered a shoulder, dove at the back’s legs rather than taking on a guy heads up that has 60 pounds on you. That wasn’t the case with Ishmael. He naturally got a little more than he gave, but he made the tackle. That sort of mentality years ago would have been perfect for being a “wedge buster” on special teams. Now the league has largely eliminated the wedge from the game, but that mentality and playing style still applies. Special teams is still an aspect of that game that features a lot of collisions, and coupled with his understanding of angles and consistency as a tackler, Ishmael is ideally suited to carve out a significant role there. I don’t think he’s likely going to be the guy that is first down the field due to his lack of speed, but he’s likely to be the guy that cleans up the play after the initial speedster is juked by the returner. He’s the type of guy that I think could consistently record double-digit tackles on special teams, and even has the upside to be a multiple Pro Bowler. He could certainly fill the shoes left by Eric Weems in that capacity. And I also think his knack for creating turnovers as a senior at UCF could translate to his ability to get a couple of forced fumbles at the next level on special teams coverage.

Everything I’ve seen, read, and heard about Ishmael also suggests he’s a hard worker that will take pride even if he’s just a special teams player. And then over time, he could develop into a better version of Jamaal Fudge that could be a quality role player with the added experience and comfort he gains with time with the defensive scheme.

Ultimately how long Ishmael plays with the Falcons will be entirely dependent on his special teams prowess. If he lives up to the potential I believe he has, then I think he could have a very long, productive NFL career in Atlanta comparable to Elbert Shelley. If not, then three or so years down the line the Falcons will replace him with a player of comparable skill on special teams that has more upside to contribute defensively. But if I’m placing my bets, I’m betting on the former happening and Ishmael having a long, productive Falcon career as a force on special teams.

Terms of Toilolo’s deal were undisclosed, but he will receive a four-year deal in the ballpark of $2.5 million with a signing bonus around $300,000 based on the rookie contract slotting system. Toilolo is expected to compete for a backup spot behind Tony Gonzalez at tight end, where his size and blocking ability could carve out a significant role for the rookie.

Stansly Maponga

Unfortunately, I didn’t get to go back and watch more than one game from Maponga this past season. But I had broken down last year’s bowl game, so I will also factor in my notes from that game as part of this evaluation.

Height: 6-1 7/8
Weight: 251
School: Texas Christian
Class: Junior
Speed: 4.81 (Campus)

Maponga was born in Zimbabwe, but moved to the United States when he was a child. His career path to the NFL mirrors that of Falcons teammate Jonathan Massaquoi. Massaquoi, a native of Liberia came to the U.S. at a young age as well. Massaquoi shined at Troy during his sophomore year, but his production fell off as a junior. But he wound up declaring for the NFL draft and probably not going as high as he initially envisioned (fifth round). Maponga had a strong sophomore campaign, emerging as one of TCU’s top pass rushers with 9 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. He looked much more pedestrian as a junior, although he was somewhat limited by a broken foot in October. But he only managed 1 sack and 2.5 tackles for loss in the six games prior to the injury. His production actually went up over the final 5 games with 3 sacks and 4 tackles for loss. Maponga opted to declare for the draft. TCU has been a school that has produced a steady line of productive pass rushers at the collegiate level, but not as many have translated well to the pro game in recent years. Jerry Hughes has struggled in Indianapolis since being a top pick, and players like Chase Ortiz, Tommy Blake, and Wayne Daniels are recent players that produced at TCU, but could not translate at all to the NFL level. If Maponga does find success at the next level, he will be the first former Horned Frog since Aaron Schobel (2001-09). Maponga was primarily used as a left defensive end while at TCU, able to exploit the slower feet of many right tackles.

CAREER STATS

2012: 11 GP/9 GS, 26 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 4.0 sacks, 0 INTs, 1 PD, 2 FF, 0 FR
2011: 13/13-55-13.5-9.0-0-2-5-0
2010: 12/12-32-3.0-2.5-0-1-1-0
2009: redshirted

- Missed 2 games due to injury in 2012 with a broken foot

2012 GAMES WATCHED

at Texas (11/22): 3 pressure, 0.5 sacks, 1 FR, 1 key blocked

2011 GAMES WATCHED

vs. Louisiana Tech (12/21): 2.5 pressures, 1 TFL, 1 run stuff

SKILLS
These are general skills required for his position and relative to not only top collegiate prospects, but also NFL players. Grades are based on a 10-point rating scale: 1-pathetic, 2-poor, 3-weak, 4-below average, 5-average, 6-above average, 7-good, 8-very good, 9-excellent, 10-elite

Strength (4.5) – Maponga tested well at the Combine on the bench press (30 reps), but you don’t see that sort of strength or power on the field. He can get pushed around a bit too easily by tight ends and often gets more than he gives when trying to take on a lead blocker. He isn’t a strong tackler either, missing a number of wrap tackles. He doesn’t show great power or strength when trying to use a bull rush.

Quickness (7.0) – Maponga has nice edge quickness, particularly when he’s in a wide technique and can pin his ears back. You get him in that track stance that is often used in the Wide-9 technique, and he can get upfield with his first step. He has enough speed to set up right tackles and thus has the potential to develop a good counter move. Right now, his spin move isn’t particularly effective as a counter move.

Pass Rush (5.0) - Maponga only really showed adeptness at the most basic speed rush off the edge. Will use his hands to slap down the punch of the offensive tackle with a basic swim move. Doesn’t really use a rip move. Showed ability to get extension with inside arm on the speed rush to generate some power. Knows how to get his hands inside when trying to bull rush, but largely non-effective since he lacks power and strength to drive blocker backwards.

Point of Attack (4.0) – Doesn’t quite know how to take on and shed blocks. Has trouble disengaging both as a run defender and pass rusher for those reasons. Can struggle getting initiate leverage against the run because of his lack of size and inability to anchor. Will get worked back by college tight ends on the kick-out block, thus likely going to struggle against much bigger NFL offensive tackles.

Recognition (4.0) – Doesn’t show great recognition against the run, unable to make plays in space despite having the athleticism to do so. Not particularly comfortable when he was asked to drop into coverage and play space. Will get caught out of position trying to fly upfield and lose gap integrity. Also will get caught out of position against the zone-read.

Motor (7.0) – Continues to chase plays downfield and flashes enough speed and range to think he can make some plays in space. Keeps playing to the whistle, and will look to deliver a hit to the ballcarrier even if he’s 20 yards downfield.

VALUE

Maponga has tools to develop as a pass rusher, but not to the level where he is probably more than an above average backup. His speed rush can be effective at times, but he needs quite a bit of polish. That’s why he’s really a late round project that is good enough to garner fifth round consideration, but probably doesn’t have the upside to go higher than that.

Grade: 3.6 – Definitely has the tools to stick on the NFL level as a reserve, but not quite of the skillset that he may have trouble sticking long-term with most teams. Tends to become journeymen. Have enough tools in most necessary areas that he should be able to contribute off the bench as a role player. Click here for more information on my grading system.

OVERVIEW

Maponga reminds me some of Cliff Avril and a lot of Lawrence Sidbury. Like Avril, he’s a fairly one-note player that does his best work when he can line up in wide techniques and fly upfield with his speed rush. Both are poor against the run, as Maponga struggles to take on and get off blocks at the point of attack. He’s not a particularly good tackler despite decent speed and motor to make plays in pursuit. Maponga can play with his hand on or off the ground, but mainly just needs to be in a position to use his speed. His role with TCU was often similar to how the Falcons used John Abraham last year, playing defensive end but rushing quite a bit from a two-point stance. That means that Maponga should fit in nicely as a developmental right end for the Falcons under Mike Nolan. Unfortunately for Maponga, he doesn’t quite have Avril’s burst off the edge. Avril can get away with being a one-note player because he’s exceedingly good at the single note. Maponga is solid, but he’s going to have to become a much more well-rounded player if he is to stick long-term in the NFL.

And that’s where the Sidbury comparison comes to bear. As far as pass rushing potential, I would put Maponga and Sidbury at about the same level. Enough speed off the edge to challenge many starting tackles, but not quite at a level where he can consistently beat them. That limits both players to essentially situational roles, where they are going to have to help boost a rotation, and be guys that can add a handful of sacks every year. Like Sidbury before him, in Maponga’s case it will likely be against the weakest competition they face. For example, in the 2011 season opener Sidbury was able to take advantage of J’Marcus Webb, who was widely considered to be among the worst starting tackles in the entire league then.

But Sidbury struggled in two other areas: against the run and on special teams, both preventing him from really getting the reps his pass rush ability deserved. With players like John Abraham and Kroy Biermann ahead of him as far as third downs went, had Sidbury been a more consistent producer there he could have garnered more reps on run downs. I think it’s going to be a major challenge to get Maponga to a point where he is good enough to carve out significant reps there. But if he can get better there, then it might better his odds since players like Umenyiora, Biermann, Massaquoi, and Goodman are likely to get first dips in pass situations.

But the lack of value on special teams was really what killed Sidbury in Atlanta. The Falcons tried him early on in his rookie season in that role, but it never took. And it led to the team deactivating him on Sundays because if you’re not a regular on defense then you have to be able to play special teams. That’s why players Cliff Matthews and Jonathan Massaquoi were able to pass Sidbury in 2012 since both of those young players showed they can produce on special teams coverage.

If Maponga wants to earn early playing time, it’s paramount he stick on special teams. Because the truth is that for the foreseeable future, Maponga probably isn’t going to be able to carve out a significant role on defense as a pass rusher. He has upside worth developing since he has a nice speed rush. But unless he can develop a power rush to go with it, he’s a fairly one-dimensional player that doesn’t have the tools to excel at that single dimension. If Maponga shows he can play on special teams, it will make it a lot easier for the Falcons to justify keeping him on the roster, especially if he cannot quite crack the rotation a few years down the road. And while I think Maponga could help out the Falcons rotation if and when he develops, he doesn’t really bring anything more to the table that Matthews, Massaquoi, and Sidbury do or did before him. I could see Maponga developing ultimately into a player that can get 3 to 5 sacks per year as a situational player that comes in on third downs. But he won’t get that chance unless he takes advantage of earlier opportunities on special teams.

The Falcons basically just replaced Lawrence Sidbury with the same player by selecting Maponga. But Maponga has a chance to become more than Sidbury if he becomes a more well-rounded player that can contribute in a variety of ways.

Josh Freeman looks geared for failure

How Josh Freeman handles this sort of adversity could impact the next five years of that franchise. I think Freeman is a talented quarterback, but I’ve never thought he had the intangibles to be a top-level starter. I liked Mike Glennon a lot, as he was the highest-rated quarterback in this draft class for me.

But I don’t think Glennon will really work as a rookie starter. The main issues I had with Glennon was that he wasn’t particularly mobile, nor does he have the intangibles that I think he could flourish as a rookie starter. In Dan Pompei’s piece linked to above, they make the comparison to Joe Flacco.

I do think that fits somewhat. You may or may not be surprised to discover that I don’t think Flacco possesses ideal intangibles. Flacco is a player that I think has benefited greatly from being on the right team. In Baltimore, he became a rookie starter because of injuries to Troy Smith and Kyle Boller. He made the most of that opportunity. But I think it helped greatly how much of the Ravens were a run-first, defensive-minded team that already had a leader in Ray Lewis. Flacco essentially never really had to assert himself as the guy up to this point. Moving forward with Lewis and others gone, and fresh off a Super Bowl he will now.

I think that’s why I’ll likely always consider Matt Ryan to be a better overall quarterback than Flacco. I know Flacco has better physical tools, and he’ll make throws look easy that Ryan will never be able to make in a million years. And for that, there are those that will consider him the better player. But I think given what Ryan has had to be in Atlanta from the very beginning, a stabilizing force, that makes him the better overall player. I just believe that if you had put Ryan in Baltimore in 2008, you’d likely to get the same if not better results. If you had put Flacco in Atlanta, I don’t think he would have had the same success. Flacco reached a level the past two years (running no huddle) that Ryan was doing Day One.

How does this relate to Tampa Bay? It’ll be interesting to see how things play out this year. If Freeman handles this currently adversity and flourishes, it could make his career. Because if he is dumped by the Bucs next year, I don’t see him landing in as good an environment. If he’s the top free agent next off-season, teams like Oakland and Cleveland will likely be strong suitors, but none of those teams have the supporting cast that Freeman has in Tampa.

Glennon won’t get the same circumstances that Flacco got in Baltimore. If Glennon became the Bucs starter, he would have to take the bull by the horns much earlier. And I’m not sure Glennon has that ability.

***

There are a lot of good free agents still available. Players that I will be shocked if they don’t find teams by the times camps open. In fact, many of these guys should already have jobs.

Will Sack For Money

Brandon Lloyd is a talented receiver that is basically a poor man’s Julio Jones. The 49ers could use a vertical threat like him. I think another good landing spot for him might also be Baltimore. Jacoby Jones had a couple of big plays in January, but I don’t think you can rely on him week in and week out. The Texans tried him out as a potential starter and he never inspired confidence there, and I doubt Baltimore will get more than Houston did.

John Abraham is still unsigned and while it seems like Tennessee is his top suitor, I think teams like Buffalo, Denver, and the N.Y. Jets are the best fits for his skills. Mark Anderson did not live up to expectations as a rush end in Buffalo, and Abraham could be a nice short-term upgrade. Denver still hasn’t effectively replaced Elvis Dumervil as the edge rusher opposite Von Miller, and Abe could work well there. The Jets right now have Antwan Barnes and Quinton Coples on the edge. Coples is expected to stand up and rush, which I think Abraham would be a better fit doing.

Charles Woodson still needs to find a home. He can help out teams looking for depth in the secondary. The Raiders might be a great place for him to land because their secondary is depleted, especially at free safety. Carolina would also be a good spot since their secondary looks atrocious. The Rams, Jets, and Cowboys could use a free safety with Woodson’s experience and leadership.

The Redskins signed Jeremy Trueblood and Tony Pashos to upgrade their right tackle competition behind Tyler Polumbus. But if they could have done things over again, maybe they would have just signed Eric Winston who is better than all three. I think Seattle would be smart to pick him up since I think Breno Giacomini is fairly average.

***

It’s May, but I think it’s worth talking about some predictions and expectations for what will happen in 2013.

I think the five best teams in the NFC are the Falcons, Packers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Saints. I think those are the likeliest teams to make the playoffs this year. I think the winner of the NFC East will ultimately be the Eagles. I just don’t think the Giants or Cowboys are that talented as teams.

One team in the NFC I’m not sure of what they will be are the Chicago Bears. I think with the changes they’ve made to their offensive line, the Bears should now have an offense that could be potent. But I don’t really know about how good a coach Marc Trestman is to really have a strong opinion one way or the other.

The Rams could also be another surprise team in the NFC because I think they could have the makings of one of the league’s top defenses if they can get some production from their safeties this year. But their offense has a lot of question marks, particularly with their ground game. Will additions like Jared Cook and Tavon Austin be able to carry an offense to be a 10-win team and wildcard winner? I doubt it.

The Bucs and Lions will also be in the playoff mix. But for the issues with their quarterback, it’s tough to see Schiano being able to hold things together to get the most out of whoever is their quarterback in 2013. The Lions are another team that has talent to compete at the highest levels, but never once while Jim Schwartz has been their coach have I seen them perform to it. I don’t think 2013 will be any different for them.

As for the AFC, I think the Patriots, Texans, and Broncos will continue to be the class of that division. But I’m hard-pressed seeing any of those teams being Super Bowl favorites. I think they suffer from being a bit too finesse. With the Texans getting DeAndre Hopkins, I’d love to pick them as my AFC Super Bowl favorite because I think they have the most balanced roster in that conference. But they are still coached by Gary Kubiak, and I’m not sold he is a championship-caliber coach.

Will he rise from the dead?

The Colts will also be in the mix as well, but they will have to deal with the sophomore slump. Although fingers will be pointed at Luck should they take a step backwards, people will forget that in 2012 the Colts offensive line and defense were terrible for most of the year. Any games they do win in 2013, will be entirely because of Luck because I’m not sure that will change. The other factor is maybe Chuck Pagano isn’t that good a coach. We really don’t know yet. The Colts were 1-2 before ChuckStrong kicked in.

Speaking of sophomore slumps, a team I didn’t mention for the NFC playoff picture are the Washington Redskins. They have basically the same team as last year, except Brian Orakpo will be returning. I’m not sure that will be enough, although it should help their defense immensely. But I will say this, if RG3 returns from his injury and plays at a high level, I’ll officially declare him the Messiah. It’s often exaggeration when people say a guy carried a team, but in the case of RG3 last year with the Redskins and their 7-game season-ending win streak, it’s true. I think the thing hurting the Redskins in 2013 is the fact that I think they’ll be much more cautious with Griffin. And that means a lot less zone read. And in truth, that was most of their offense last year (the remainder being filled by handoffs to Alfred Morris). Griffin wasn’t asked to drop back that much and throw without some form of run-action to freeze the linebackers and safeties. If teams don’t have to go that extra mile to try and scheme against them defensively, I just am not sure the Redskins have the offensive firepower to be able to play with a more traditional offense and win. It’s nothing against RG3, who I think has the capability to do that, but it’s such a stark contrast to what they did last year. And to think they could go two straight years basically playing two different types of offenses and win is really something special. Sure, the Broncos did it the past two years with Tebow and Manning. That’s two different quarterbacks, we’re talking about one guy. Especially a guy that has been spending his off-season worried about his rehab than making the next progression as a passer.

Levine Toilolo

Height: 6-8 3/8
Weight: 259
School: Stanford
Class: Junior
Speed: 4.86 (Combine)

Toilolo continues the trend that the Falcons apparently adopted in 2013 by selecting a player with NFL bloodlines. Three of his uncles: Dan Saleaumua (1987-98), Edwin Mulitalo (1999-2008), and Joe Salave’a (1998-2006) all played in NFL. Toilolo comes from an athletic family of Samoan Americans. A top recruit for Stanford, he started as a redshirt freshman back in 2010 in the season opener, but tore his ACL which lost him for the year. He came back the following year mixing in the rotation with Zach Ertz and Coby Fleener. He had a solid year, putting up slightly better production than Ertz. But as junior, Ertz would take off while Toilolo would sort of languish at the status quo. Didn’t have the breakout year expected, and had basically the same production despite the uptick in opportunities with Fleener in the NFL. He is primarily a blocking tight end, but possesses the length and athleticism to create matchup problems and wreak havoc in the secondary. He continues a strong tradition of Stanford tight ends in the NFL, with Ertz being taken in 2013. Fleener was the top TE drafted in 2012. Jim Dray and Evan Moore each were backups this past year, while Alex Smith was a productive starter in Tampa Bay before becoming a backup in Cleveland. His name is pronounced La-Veen Toy-lo-lo.

CAREER STATS

2012: 14 GP/14 GS, 24 rec., 393 yds, 16.4 avg, 4 TDs
2011: 13/10-25-343-13.7-6
2010: 1/1-1-27-27.0-0
2009: redshirted

2012 GAMES WATCHED

vs. USC (9/15): 7 targets, 3 rec., 47 yds (15.7 avg), 4 YAC (1.3 avg), 0 TD; 1 key block
at Washington (9/27): 2 tgts, 1 rec., 18 yds (18.0 avg), 1 YAC, 0 TD; 1 fumble
at Notre Dame (10/13): 3 tgts, 0 rec., 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 drop; 1 missed block
vs. Wisconsin (1/1): 1 tgt, 0 rec., 0 yds, 0 TD

SKILLS
These are general skills required for his position and relative to not only top collegiate prospects, but also NFL players. Grades are based on a 10-point rating scale: 1-pathetic, 2-poor, 3-weak, 4-below average, 5-average, 6-above average, 7-good, 8-very good, 9-excellent, 10-elite

Speed (6.5) – Is a long strider that has the ability to get vertical and make plays downfield. Isn’t a true burner, but he can get behind a defense and make them pay. Gets a good release off the line and can get up to speed fairly quickly on the vertical routes, but has less burst when asking to try and separate on shorter routes.

Hands (5.0) – Has strong hands that consistently catches the ball away from his body. Will high point the ball, but not consistently. Doesn’t always do a good job securing the ball against his body, leading to drops when he’s in traffic.

Blocking (6.0) – Knows how to get position when working as an inline blocker. Plays with good knee bend and his been well-schooled on blocking technique playing at Stanford. Shows ability to get initial leverage with good hand placement off the snap and can lock on. But he doesn’t have great pop or burst off the snap to create any real push as a run blocker. Struggles to maintain his blocks when working in space against smaller defensive backs because he plays a bit too high. Too often tries to use his shoulder rather than hands to try and get position at the point of attack as a run blocker. Won’t reliably get push in short-yardage situations.

Body Control (7.0) – Shows ability to adjust to throws in the air, able to get position on back-shoulder throws and fades. High points the ball in the air and can use his length to his advantage to extend for plays. Will adjust to low throws. Has that high-cut body type that limits his movement somewhat.

Range (7.0) – Has the ability to make plays all over the field, but shows his most potential trying to make plays downfield. His length allows him to make plays on throws that others cannot.

VALUE

Toilolo has top tools, but never quite played up to them while in college. He would flash playmaking ability, but was never a consistent threat in the same way that Ertz and Fleener were. That makes him a mid-rounder that probably is best served targeted as a role player. His lack of consistently probably makes him a fifth round player, but his upside and athleticism probably push him up a round to make him a good fourth round target.

Grade: 4.4 - Good enough to be a starter at the next level, but if he does, he’ll struggle to compete against the quality players at the next level. Not a player you want in a key position and tends to be more a stopgap option for a few years rather than a long-term solution. Best used as a role player. Click here for more information on my grading system.

OVERVIEW

Toilolo is an interesting player because he certainly passes the eyeball test. As a 6-8 guy with good athleticism, you see why teams were enamored with him going into the season. I remember hearing before last year’s draft of one scout who wasn’t a big fan of Fleener because he was the third best tight end on Stanford’s roster in 2011, behind both Ertz and Toilolo. But Toilolo didn’t have the big season that was expected of him, and his stock plummeted from a potential first round pick to possibly not being drafted at all.

Toilolo just wasn’t very consistent at Stanford. But I also don’t think they got the most out of him, especially going from Andrew Luck to Josh Nunes and Kevin Hogan at quarterback this past year. I saw many times on film where Toilolo was open, but the quarterback went to another receiver (often Ertz). That suggests to me that some of his issues were due to not having a great rapport with the QB more than because Toilolo lacked ability to be more productive.

Toilolo is an effective blocker but he’s not overly powerful. Because he played at Stanford, he’s well-schooled on how to block. That suggests that he probably isn’t going to get that much better there at the next level. And that’s not quite good enough to think he can be a strongside inline blocker that a team can run behind. Instead, he’s more of a “help blocker” like Tony Gonzalez than a guy who you want matched up on an island with a quality defender. The issue is that he lacks power in his game. He gives good effort, but he doesn’t show the strength, power, or nastiness to really be a guy you can run behind. But Toilolo could improve if he was to get bigger and stronger. He probably has the frame that he could easily support another 10-15 pounds of muscle.

The player I would compare him to is Dante Rosario, but just a taller version. Rosario is a player that has the athleticism to create mismatches in the secondary, but in stints in Carolina, Seattle, and San Diego he was never able to put it all together to be considered a reliable starter. He’ll show up every now and then and make a couple of big plays, but for the most part he’s an average backup. That’s why I don’t believe Toilolo will be a full-time starter at this level. Like Rosario did in Carolina with Jeff King, if he was to start it would likely be splitting time in an offense that makes use of a lot of two-tight end sets.

The key for Toilolo in Atlanta is going to be building a rapport with Ryan early on. If Ryan is confident in him, then he’ll get some chances to make an impact. His initial value to Atlanta will be as a blocker since producing there will get him the most reps on offense immediately.

Ultimately, I could see Toilolo having production where he could reliably catch 25-30 passes and 4-5 touchdowns per year, but probably not be consistent enough to do more than that. A good comparison for his maximum upside as a starter is a player like Anthony Fasano, although I doubt Toilolo will ever be the blocker that Fasano is. When you’re a run-based offense like the Dolphins have been over the years, you accept Fasano as your starter. But if you want to be more a pass-oriented attack, his limitations become more apparent. With Toilolo, I don’t ever see him being the reliable chain mover that Gonzalez has been in this offense. Toilolo is probably ideally suited to be the fourth option in your passing game rather than second or third.

I think getting a year of working with Gonzalez will help Toilolo. The main area I think that it should impact is with ball security, where Gonzalez can help Toilolo be more consistent when it comes to securing catches in traffic. I’m not sure there is a lot else that Gonzalez is going to teach him, except maybe a few tricks with route-running and/or being able to put defenders on his hip and post them up like in basketball.

For the most part Toilolo is not an ideal long-term replacement for Gonzalez. Given Gonzalez’s ability as a pass catcher, it was unlikely that a single player would be a suitable heir apparent. It’s likely going to take at least two players to try and fill that void, and Toilolo is the first of them.

Malliciah Goodman

Height: 6-3 5/8
Weight: 273
School: Clemson
Class: Senior
Speed: 4.87 (Combine)

Goodman was a highly recruited prospect at Clemson, and finished his career strong with a 3-sack effort against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. In that game, he was working against a true freshman who began the season as a backup and dominated him early before LSU made adjustments. He began his career as the backup to Da’Quan Bowers, recording 3 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. In his first year as a starter, he had 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss. As a senior, he was shut out in terms of sacks for the first four games of the season. But finished the year with 7 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in the final 6 games, including the 3-sack, 3-TFL performance in the finale vs. LSU. Goodman transitioned to the Combine where he impressed again with his long arms. They were measured 36 and 3/8 inches, making them the longest of any of the prospects in Indianapolis. Those long arms give him a lot of developmental potential as a defensive end where they can be highly valuable as an edge rusher. He played exclusively at left end at Clemson.

CAREER STATS

2012: 13 GP/13 GS, 20 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 7 sacks, 0 INT, 1 PD, 4 FF, 0 FR
2011: 14/14-49-4.0-2.0-0-1-1-0
2010: 13/1-32-3.5-1.0-0-1-3-0
2009: 14/0-26-6.0-2.0-0-0-0-0

2012 GAMES WATCHED

vs. Auburn (9/1): 2.5 TFLs, 1 FF
at Florida State (9/22): No production
vs. South Carolina (11/24): 1 TFL, 2 pressures, 1 QB hit, 1 FF; 1 penalty (offsides)
vs. LSU (12/31): 3 sacks, 2 pressures, 1 PD; 1 key blocked

SKILLS
These are general skills required for his position and relative to not only top collegiate prospects, but also NFL players. Grades are based on a 10-point rating scale: 1-pathetic, 2-poor, 3-weak, 4-below average, 5-average, 6-above average, 7-good, 8-very good, 9-excellent, 10-elite

Strength (6.5) – Shows decent strength, flashing some power as a pass rusher and run defender. Able to deliver a power punch to the tight end when trying to get his hands inside and get leverage against the run. Putting up 26 bench reps despite having 36-inch arms indicate that his weight room strength is higher than that number indicates.

Quickness (6.0) – Goodman shows his best burst and first step off the ball when he is allowed to pin his ears back and attack upfield. He has enough speed and burst off the edge to set up slower-footed right tackles. He has decent straight-line burst off the edge, but not a guy that is going to consistently close even when unblocked.

Pass Rush (5.0) – Goodman showed his ability to use his long arms to get extension as a speed rusher vs. LSU, but had shown little of that prior to. He lacks really any moves besides trying to win solely with that speed rush. Doesn’t do a good job using his hands to get inside for a power move, despite his long arms and strength being an excellent combo to develop it. He’s got the tools to be a very effective pass rusher, but he’s raw and unpolished at this point in his development.

Point of Attack (5.0) – Doesn’t make many plays at the point of attack versus the run, as many of his stops come on the backside pursuit. Struggles to anchor at the point of attack and can’t consistently get off blocks. Doesn’t make very many plays when you run at him, and struggles to get leverage against zone blocks.

Recognition (5.0) – Doesn’t show great recognition when it comes to sniffing out screens or shovel passes.

Motor (6.0) – Plays with a good motor and will play to the whistle. Gives chase downfield when working in pursuit. Won’t quit on his pass rush.

VALUE

Goodman is a developmental end with tools you like to develop in a capable edge pass rusher, but he’s fairly raw and unpolished. Too raw at this point to really indicate his upside, although he should be a player that can be a functional starter and everydown player. He might have a longer length to impact because he is essentially a one-move guy. He’s a speed rusher that lacks ideal edge speed, suggesting he’s more likely to ultimately develop into a rotational player rather than a reliable and productive starter. He’s more in line with fifth round talent, but the premium on pass rushers push his value up into the fourth round in value.

Grade: 4.2 – Has enough ability to potentially be a starter, but if he does develop it’ll likely come after his rookie contract expires and he hits free agency. Tends to have ability and productive college player, but tends to be lacking in more than one key area that limit his upside to start on the next level. Click here for more information on my grading system.

OVERVIEW

Goodman is a bit of a tweener with the size and experience in Clemson’s defense that he could be looked at as a 5-technique or 3-4 defensive end. But he plays and looks more comfortable as a 4-3 defensive end that can use his speed.

The problem is that while Goodman is most natural as a speed rusher in the 4-3, he really lacks the ideal burst at this point to really impact at the next level. He just doesn’t currently have the speed and burst to be scary enough for NFL starting right tackles. But he could if he was to slim down. He’s the type of player that could be more effective playing his current style if he was closer to 265 rather than 275 pounds.

But the other issue with Goodman is not what he is now, but what he eventually could become. He also has the frame to support probably another 10-15 pounds, and thus offer the potential to play inside. He has the tools that you could imagine him being an effective interior speed rusher with development, but at this point he’s largely untested there. And more than likely, if that is where you want to develop him, you won’t see results until a few years down the road.

That’s the issue with Goodman, regardless of how you go, he’s not likely to be a huge contributor in his rookie year and possibly his second year. He can help out in the rotation, but he’s not a great run stopper despite having good size and strength. He can definitely get better there, but he’s not good enough to think he’ll be a better option than players like Kroy Biermann, Cliff Matthews, or Jonathan Babineaux could be at defensive end for the Falcons in 2013. And he’s got tools as a pass rusher, but not any that would mean he deserves significant reps there initially either. So Goodman’s ability to play on Sundays as a rookie might largely depend on his ability to play on special teams.

Goodman has the potential that if he can develop, he could be a solid left end in a 4-3. If the Falcons choose to bulk him up, the possibility that he could play outside on first and second down, and then move inside on third downs (a la Justin Tuck) is a possibility. But for Goodman to earn that role, he has to be a lot better with his hands playing inside. His speed could be very effective there, but he doesn’t have the type of burst that he can win as a pure speed guy inside. Ultimately, you’re hoping he turns into a player similar to Desmond Bryant in Oakland, who has similar physical tools and showed he was a solid rotational inside/outside player.

I think asking Goodman to lose weight however might be a better option to get him to impact quickly. You won’t have to really teach him new moves, just refine his already developing speed rush.

I’m not sure Goodman is likely to become a starter in Atlanta. I think he’s more likely to become a Chauncey Davis-type of role player. Goodman should be a more effective pass rusher than Davis was and the sort of guy you’d be willing to start in a pinch. But ideally, he’ll only be a guy that plays 30 snaps per game that can add value both as a run defender and pass rusher, but not excel enough at either area to be more than a third or fourth end in the rotation. It’s not for a lack of potential, because if Goodman can develop a better array of moves and become a more consistent run defender, he does have the upside to be able to present problems for starting NFL tackles. If he reaches his maximum potential, you’re probably looking at an above average starter that can consistently produce a half-dozen sacks per year. But again, more than likely he becomes a solid role player that is best coming off the bench situationally.

All agreed to four-year deals, although exact terms of their contracts were undisclosed. Based on deals signed by players taken in last year’s draft, Goodman’s four-year deal will likely be worth around $2.55 million with a signing bonus under $400,000. Maponga will likely sign a deal worth around $2.35 million with a signing bonus in the area of $190,000. Similar to Ishmael, Motta’s deal should be worth roughly $2.2 million with a signing bonus around $45,000.