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Let's say Manning is out for the year. Could the Colts tank it to get into "LuckGate"? Could we end up having a Patrick Ewing to NY situation all over again but it just so happens the Colts with one of the best QB's ever getting the next big thing? I know the Colts wouldn't stink it up to get the #1 pick, but any chance they do poor enough without Manning that they are close enough to try to trade for Luck and groom him under Manning? I know I know...the answer is no, but still something to think about.

Anyone who thinks an NFL team would tank it does not live in the real world as far as the way the NFL works. Players are competing for contracts and jobs as are coaches. The uncertantity of other teams failures leaves the real possibility of missing the target - then what? Add to that the loss of revenues and the need for everyone to be "in" on the plan.

That type of talk is pure fantasy when you are talking about a multi-billion dollar business.

To the question that underlies this post - if the Colts are in trade striking range of the top QB (Luck may lay an egg and slip) it really depends on hopw Manning is feeling in January. I doubt that the Colts will draft a QB high only to sit in practice and games while Manning is going strong - he eats up too many reps in practice (far more than other starters). I doubt the Colts draft high until Manning is done for good.

W

No, there's virtually no chance that the Colts would draft Luck if they had the #1 pick. They just gave Manning $100 million contract, the second of his career.

I say virtually no chance because I guess there is the very, very, very slim chance that at some point in the next 6 months there is news that Manning's career is essentially over due to complications of this neck injury and he is forced to retire prematurely.

But IMO, that's the only way such a scenario is even fathomable, Peyton Manning has to retire.

I read the Colts can get out of his new contract after 1 year and $26 million. Wonder if they don't do well if they'll let him go and begin to rebuild since he's coming off neck surgery and he's 36. Should be interesting.

I guess it's possible, but highly doubtful. The Colts have 6 months, before they ever have to make that type of decision.

And I htink that would only happen if they were really backed into a corner. Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis are FAs, and thus you probably have to part ways with them. So is Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem. Dwight Freeney has 2 years left on his deal, and Dallas Clark 3 years.

Their identity is so firmly hitched around Manning, that rebuilding would probably be a very long project. That's not going to be a situation where they have like 2 good off-seasons and they are back competing again in the AFC.

They were discussing this somewhat on Bill Simmons podcast yesterday, he and Mike Lombardi, and in order to revamp and make this is a competitive team, they are probably going to have acquire more assets and/or gut the team.

Between Wayne and Mathis, you probably tag one and trade him for a #1 or #2, then you let the other walk so that you can get that #3 in 2013 draft. Saturday and Diem, you probably let walk for similar reasons. And then you're put in a situation where if you can get a #1 and #3 for Freeney, you probably should do so.

And with those assets you have to draft much better than they have the past 4 or 5 years.

But again, I think we are really getting ahead of ourselves with all this speculation about the end of Peyton Manning's career.

I'd bet good money that he's playing football in 2012 and at a fairly high level.

I know just about as much about cervical neck/disc fusions as the dr's who diagnose and cut via personal exp's. This is SUPER serious, dangerous stuff he has going on. Bottom line, you shouldn't ever let them cut you if you can somehow either live w/ it or get to a slightly better place w/ it somehow via either p.t., neck injections, medicine...........but never the knife. The inherant prob is those three typically never work to solve the big issue. Ed Reed agrees w/ me on this, smart man. It is such a sophisticated, small area of your body, where everything is in a compact area, but think how dynamic the neck can move (w/o us being an owl). You screw something up in there, it affects EVERYTHING, let alone throwing a football. Your body is a willow tree of nerves, the spine is the epicenter, and his epicenter has been rocked. Not only can he probably not feel his hands/fingers, if he can it probably tingles (nice word, its damn painful) like your leg was asleep, expect it does that all the time.

Post surgery, typical nerve regeneration takes between 3-6 months under normal, good developing circumstances. However, this procedure is anything but typical. Nerves are a complicated beast, and behave diffferently for most people. So typical isn't even a word that should be associated w/ this surgery. He basically had a spinal disc removed, whether it was buldging to badly, hitting/pinching a nerve, ruptured or simply torn or flattened, think a jelly donut w/ no jelly. That causes bone on bone spinal rubbing, right where your nerve epicenter is, so you almost can't not have nerve pain. Some surgeries are clean, alleviate pain and you're good after the nerves regen. I don't know a percentage, but I would wager over half have lingering, big time issues post cutting.

I know just about as much about cervical neck/disc fusions as the dr's who diagnose and cut via personal exp's. This is SUPER serious, dangerous stuff he has going on. Bottom line, you shouldn't ever let them cut you if you can somehow either live w/ it or get to a slightly better place w/ it somehow via either p.t., neck injections, medicine...........but never the knife. The inherant prob is those three typically never work to solve the big issue. Ed Reed agrees w/ me on this, smart man. It is such a sophisticated, small area of your body, where everything is in a compact area, but think how dynamic the neck can move (w/o us being an owl). You screw something up in there, it affects EVERYTHING, let alone throwing a football. Your body is a willow tree of nerves, the spine is the epicenter, and his epicenter has been rocked. Not only can he probably not feel his hands/fingers, if he can it probably tingles (nice word, its damn painful) like your leg was asleep, expect it does that all the time.

Post surgery, typical nerve regeneration takes between 3-6 months under normal, good developing circumstances. However, this procedure is anything but typical. Nerves are a complicated beast, and behave diffferently for most people. So typical isn't even a word that should be associated w/ this surgery. He basically had a spinal disc removed, whether it was buldging to badly, hitting/pinching a nerve, ruptured or simply torn or flattened, think a jelly donut w/ no jelly. That causes bone on bone spinal rubbing, right where your nerve epicenter is, so you almost can't not have nerve pain. Some surgeries are clean, alleviate pain and you're good after the nerves regen. I don't know a percentage, but I would wager over half have lingering, big time issues post cutting.

I am 99.99% sure he doesn't play in '11, but I wager another 50/50% that he never play again. Its one thing to get cut once, but boy all I wrote above was for one surgery, you start getting into 2+ and something has gone VERY wrong. They go in through your front neck/windpipe area to avoid cutting the rear neck muscles (which would add tons of recovery time), but the problem is scar tissue. Its a beast by itself. Every time you get cut, scar tissue is left behind. So when they go in the 2nd time, they have to cut through that new scar tissue to do the same procedure. So now your exponentially complicated everything with 2x scar tissue. In some cases even if you fix said issue, the scar tissue causes diff long term problems (and strangely enough, can wrap around never endings while healing), which causes a whole other set of issues. And theres pretty much zero that can be done about scar tissue, as the nature of the problem is compounded by more cutting. Circle of death.

Again, him having two surgeries sorta makes me think he might be done. People with these lingering nerve issues, lose power in their limbs, can't sensate feelings (like diff passes of a football) in their limbs, have nerve pain that is undescribeable, but AWFUL, and untreatable basically. The two things they do for this issue, usually don't work as one is an electronic device that you live with forever, and could never play football w/. The other is medicine, which never works.

They blame him for waiting until May, but he was smart to do so. Avoided the cut as loong as possible, but that fact that it became unavoidable speaks VOLUMES. Then that he's had the compication is almost the death knell to having a job where you use your arms exclusively, plus have 300 pound wrecking alls hitting you. Nerve pain is unbearable if you're sitting in a lazy boy.

Finally, if he gets to 6+ months and still hasn't gotten his nerve feelings back.....then it usually never comes back. A year is the max they're regenerate.

Lets say it does go well somehow, although I think since its the second cut the likelihood it works on around 15-30%. But again, say he regen's in 3 months, THERE IS NO HUMAN WAY ON EARTH HE COULD PLAY THIS YEAR. Not only can you not take any hits or contact, he's arm/shoulder strength would have atrophied and be WAY off. People should forget '11, thats gone. People should be wondering whether he ever plays again, he's 36.

Intereting as anything that Irsay gave him 100m w/ this issue. I wouldn't have given him a nickel till this was resolved. The colts have a 2 day window post season to cut him and not pay a 25m bonus. If he's not regenerated by then, don't be surprised if he's cut from the team and they would indeed probably be in the Luck neighborhood.

Thanks for the insight. Maybe I'll take that money off the table.

Most of what I heard was optimistic about the nerves regenerating. He might lose something off his fast ball, but I heard he would still have enough to be effective.

I guess the odds of him not playing again are probably higher than I expect, but I still think something drastic has to happen in the next 6 months for the Colts to get off the Peyton Manning wagon.

Their entire team is built around him, and unless they are in a position to get one of these premier QBs (Luck, Barkley, Jones, Cousins), which is possible, I can't see them washing their hands of him.

Because it's another year before he's going to have to play again. And so if you're moving in a new direction at such a key position, you're going to have to make the decision by the time March rolls around so you can either pursue a free agent or so you can start to work out the prospects. And the future of Peyton Manning definitely plays into what you do with Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, and Robert Mathis in free agency as well. Because you're not going to pay those guys market value if you are going to be a 4-12 team with a bad or inexperienced QB.

So I think the Colts need to see overwhelming evidence that Peyton Manning will not play ever again before they are so willing to blow everything up.

But if it's a situation where "just" his 2012 season might be in jeopardy, I don't know if the Colts will blow things up. In a situation where he's progressing but not as well as they were hoping 6 months from now, so that he might not be able to start the 2012 season, or they're hopeful he will play again (because of that progress), it just may have to wait until 2013 or whatever.

So let's then imagine a scenario where the Colts are bad in 2011 and wind up with a Top 5 pick in the '12 draft. And all 3 big name juniors come out: Luck, Barkley, and Jones, and all three are projected as Top 5 picks.

Maybe the Colts take one of those QBs, or maybe they opt to trade down with a QB-needy team, pick up some more picks in order to replenish their roster.

Personally, I always envisioned Manning playing until he was 39 at the least.

Uh oh, disregard everything I said. Sounds omenous:

http://twitter.com/#!/JimIrsay/status/1 ... 4971108352

As far as 2nd corrective surgeries go, above is the bible. This isn't an emotional decision, he either miraculously recovers, or he doesn't.

The question will be how "definitive" can they be when the time rolls around to make tough decisions. If his nerves are still shot, forget it. If he is somehow recovering, then its the cloudiest decision ever. Even if the miracle or all miracles has him looking like he'll fully recover, he's 36 and the wear and tear, and what you deal with going forward from these procedures puts him one hit away from done forever.

They're drafting somebody. Polian wasn't seen scouting Luck recently for no reason.

A couple of years back, Bill Polian was spotted and interviewed by ESPN during a Ball State-Northern Illinois game. THey asked him about Ball State QB Nate Davis, who was a junior at the time, and Polian denied that he was interested in him.

Polian and the Colts did not draft Davis when he decided to come out at the end of that year. So it doesn't mean that much.

Although of course I should note that the Colts did pick up Davis this past summer for their training camp.

Had I been aware of Duke's schedule, I would have been at that game myself last weekend.

You just compared Nate Davis to Andrew Luck. I see where you're coming from, but not comparible... Plus Manning is old even in QB terms now, even if fully healthy.

I'll just follow up by saying that any competent GM would try to see Andrew Luck in person at some point this year. He is potentially the best NFL prospect in 15-25 years depending how much he stacks up against Manning.

Even TD should try and take in the Stanford-UCLA game in 2 weeks, since the Falcons will be on that coast that weekend. There's a 0.000001% chance that Luck winds up being a Falcon, but just his genuine curiosity should make him show up.