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 Post subject: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 1:34 pm 
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According to Len Pastabelly....

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=s ... -tip-sheet
Len Pasquarelli wrote:
Ranking high on the to-do list for new Atlanta defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is getting middle linebacker Curtis Lofton out of the team's "sub" third-down coverage schemes. Lofton is a superb, two-down 4-3 middle linebacker, and retaining the pending unrestricted free agent is a priority for the Falcons, but the four-year veteran is a liability in third-down situations. Don't be surprised if ascending star Sean Witherspoon, who is very good against the pass, moves more to the middle in "nickel" situations in 2012. …


The question I have is that if the Falcons only view Lofton as a 2-down defender (and rightfully so), then that should really drive his price down quite a bit in their eyes, right? And wouldn't it make more sense if that is the case, that instead of paying Lofton $$$$ to be a 2-down defender, to try and go out and find a 3-down defender with that money?

If this report is true and the Falcons view Lofton only as a 2-down role player long-term, and the Falcons make a significant effort to re-sign him, then it's just Strike 37 in what has been a team that has been poorly run at the top over recent years.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 2:14 pm 
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Great point Pudge why would they break the bank on a two down linebacker? Lofton is always a step behind and probably will always be the case. I have a terrible feeling that they will over pay for Lofton and not keep Abraham. I'm all for keeping Lofton but still don't go crazy. Another question is do you really take Lofton out? I personally think Lofton is better than Nicholas in coverage. Peterson won't be back and I'm not sure about the young guns in Adkins and Dent. Can Nicholas bring any sort of coverage that is better than Lofton? I'm still puzzled at the re signing of Nicholas.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 2:52 pm 
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It would be fine with me if I never heard the words "Lofton in coverage" again. It seemed like every 3rd and 10+ that was converted against us was due to a receiver being wide open in the middle of the field. The guy is a 2 down linebacker with some knee issues. I really, really hope they don't overpay him, but I have a feeling they will.


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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 3:29 pm 
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Well, at least they finally recognize he shouldn't be out there on third down.

A 2 down MLB, to me, isn't worth more than 2M a year, because they're not actually 2 down LBs...they're liabilities against the pass on the 1st 2 downs. They're run stopping LBs.

That's been a major weakness of the team. It's much smarter to spend the money on Abe than Lofton, if only because Abe will only be on the books for a year or two, while Lofton will get a 5 yr contract.


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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 2:38 am 
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Jeez Pudge if we've been poorly run at the top over the last few years; then what's been up the last 15 years??

I agree Loften does not exactly help us in nickle coverage; but he's but he's been darn good against the run.... You beat on Lofton
all the time, and make him sound like he alone is killing our defense.....His range is pretty good against the run...

I think last year Thomas D. had his controversial trade, and his rotten pick-up of Edwards; but picking up James Sanders I thought was
a good move (he's not yet 30) and Kevin Hayden was pretty good too, (also not 30) Franks & even Owens had good moments late in the
season....

I mean it feels like you won't say Corey Peters is good; you think Jerry was a bust when he was still limping his second year, and
no one will say what's wrong.....

I don't care how you slice it a multiple 10 game winning team is doing something right at the top....And being in business they will
screw up too....; but if you just look for the bad; you'll find some of course.....

Here's what I think Thomas D. and Smith has helped do..... They've made other good Coordinators want to come here because they
think their work will get noticed and possibly take them to a head coaching job or more stability!! Reeves could do that a little because he was getting older and people like Wade Phillips took a chance.... You really couldn't say that for the June Jones era; or the Mora era;
and getting good assistants is a big deal.....

I really think Nolan will play towards D. Robinson's strengths; either get Edwards back to whatever he was; and probably let Jerry go
which I believe is a injured player that can't recover; and also find out how to get better safety play....

If our new Offensive Coordinator does any of what people are saying he likes; then Ryan, Roddy, Gonzo, & Julio is just
talent he's not had to work with......And

Having Mularkey take a head coaches job reflects well on the franchise and hopefully our new assistants will be as good
as advertised!!

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 5:30 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
Jeez Pudge if we've been poorly run at the top over the last few years; then what's been up the last 15 years??

You yourself say that Rich McKay was a terrible GM. And I'm trying to find what Thomas Dimitroff has done over the past 2 or 3 off-seasons that was better than anything Rich McKay did...

Cyril wrote:
I think last year Thomas D. had his controversial trade, and his rotten pick-up of Edwards; but picking up James Sanders I thought was
a good move (he's not yet 30) and Kevin Hayden was pretty good too, (also not 30) Franks & even Owens had good moments late in the
season....

And you make these statements as if he's the first GM that has ever found some decent role players. Ever heard of Ed Jasper, Brian Finneran, Chris Draft, Keion Carpenter, Gerald McBurrows, Kevin Mathis, Aaron Beasley, Paul Carrington, Fred McCrary?

Cyril wrote:
I mean it feels like you won't say Corey Peters is good; you think Jerry was a bust when he was still limping his second year, and
no one will say what's wrong.....

It depends on what your definition of "good" is. Is Peters good in the regards that he's better than a lot of DTs in the league? Yes. Is he good in the sense that the majority of NFL teams would open their arms wide to have him start for them? No. I got into a twitter debate with someone a few weeks about Peters. That person stated that if the 2010 draft was held over again, Peters would be a 1st round pick. And I vehemently disagreed. That person based his conclusion off the idea that Peters was one of the 4 or 5 best DTs drafted that year. And I countered that would be true if players like Dan Williams, Linval Joseph, Jared Odrick, Tyson Alualu, and Earl Mitchell didn't exist. Just like Peters, all 5 of those players are solid to good starters like Peters, in addition to players like Suh, Geno Atkins, Mt. Cody, and Gerald McCoy that this person conceded were better.

As for calling Jerry a bust in his 2nd year, I never did such a thing. I only started calling Jerry a bust at the end of this season when he proved that even with a supposedly healthy knee he was no more effective a role player than he was in 2010 when he supposedly still had a bum knee.

Cyril wrote:
You beat on Lofton all the time, and make him sound like he alone is killing our defense

I beat on Lofton because I think he's a good player, but the way some people talk about him is like he's on the verge of being the next Ray Lewis or Jessie Tuggle, and that's just not true. His first 4 years in a Falcon uniform are no better than Keith Brooking's, yet Brooking is vilified by many as one of the most overrated Falcon players in history, and Lofton is lauded as if he's the key ingredient to one of the league's best defenses.

I'm in favor of bringing Lofton back, but not if the team isn't going to use him as a 3-down linebacker. I've only heard of one team in recent history making it work with their MLB as a 2-down defender. That was the Tennessee Titans with Stephen Tulloch in the middle, and Keith Bulluck and David Thornton at OLB. On nickel situations, Tulloch came off the field and Bulluck who was one of the best coverage LBs in recent memory, and Thornton who was pretty good in his prime were their nickel LBs. And that worked for a time, until Thornton's play dropped. But the Titans did that for several years with Pete Sirmon, Ryan Fowler, and then Tulloch as their starting MLB. Because in that way, the MLB was not nearly as important as the two OLBs, and thusly Thornton & Bulluck were paid an amount appropriate to their value, and the MLB was interchangeable and a revolving door.

So if the Falcons plan on employing Lofton in a similar role, then they should pay him accordingly, with money that pays him significantly below his market value. Instead, that money should be spent to find a player like Bulluck/Thornton that can be a good everydown defender.

If this coaching staff sees Lofton as only a 2-down defender, then they should not bend over backwards to re-sign him. Now, I don't know the accuracy of this report. On one hand, they say that they see him as only a 2-down guy, but on the other hand, its a priority to re-sign him. And in my mind, those two statements are incongruous and don't fit together. If he's a priority to re-sign, then he should be viewed as a 3-down defender. If he's only a 2-down defender, then he should not be any more of a FA priority to keep than most feel Thomas DeCoud is.

And if this team winds up giving Lofton a $7-9M/yr. contract, and he's only a 2-down defender, he'll be one of the highest paid role players in the league. His value to the team will be no higher than what Stephen Nicholas, but he'll be paid twice as much.

That's my point about this front office. The mistakes the Falcons front office has made in recent years is completely misevaluating the value of players. They overpay average starters, overdraft role players, etc. And if you make too many of these mistakes, they accumulate and are what keep you from ascending to that next level as a team.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 6:13 pm 
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ShooterMcGavin wrote:
The guy is a 2 down linebacker with some knee issues. I really, really hope they don't overpay him, but I have a feeling they will.


All I keep hearing about him is that he is only 25 and he is the heart and soul of our D. No one mentions that he is only a two down run defender who has had two knee surgeries. The other thing about Lofton is that in games that seem to be tailored made to fit his strengths he disappears (He missed at least 6 or 7 tackles in the Houston game). With the QBs in the NFC South a two down MLB will not cut it. I like Lofton I would just rather have Grimes.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:23 am 
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Quote:
" Pudge Said"
You yourself say that Rich McKay was a terrible GM. And I'm trying to find what Thomas Dimitroff has done over the past 2 or 3 off-seasons that was better than anything Rich McKay did..



Well you can start with his first Head Coaching hire: Coach Mora hired by McKay who has been fired twice in the NFL in about 5 years; and
Coach Petrino is back with the Hogs.... Petrino actually ran; and you say Blank stays out of the hiring process so I guess Thomas D.
has done better than McKay in the coaching selecting process!! (Which is a 100% big deal)


Quote:
Pudge Wrote "
As for calling Jerry a bust in his 2nd year, I never did such a thing. I only started calling Jerry a bust at the end of this season when he proved that even with a supposedly healthy knee he was no more effective a role player than he was in 2010 when he supposedly still had a bum knee.


No I never said that, I was saying I watched Jerry limping off the field late in his second year, so I think his injury was much more serious
than we've been told; and for some reason we've been told nothing..... I just don't think because of the injury he could ever come close to his potential. You've assumed his knee was healthy and I've assumed anyone over 300lbs limping on a hurt knee his second year or 18 months later is not coming back.

Then I mention some role players we got last year; and you give me a address book of the role players of the last 6 years?

I wasn't tearing you to threads; Creating a situation where we can get good assistant Coaches is mostly a front office
thing!! We've got nothing to argue about; I was just putting in some things I thought McKay never developed in off-seasons like the seemly better communicating Between Thomas & Smitty and having good Coordinators come in from head coaching promotions; does help a franchise.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:33 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
Well you can start with his first Head Coaching hire: Coach Mora hired by McKay who has been fired twice in the NFL in about 5 years; and
Coach Petrino is back with the Hogs.... Petrino actually ran; and you say Blank stays out of the hiring process so I guess Thomas D.
has done better than McKay in the coaching selecting process!! (Which is a 100% big deal)

No I can't start with that. Because Mike Smith was hired 4 years ago, and I'm not questioning Thomas Dimitroff's entire tenure here. I'm questioning the moves and decisions he's made in the past 2-3 years, not the past 4. I have little problems with the Dimitroff Era taken as a whole, if you count 2008 to 2010. But I do have some issues if you take away 2008, where almost all of his best moves occurred. After that, his resume is pretty average.

My point is that over the past few off-seasons, what has Thomas Dimitroff really done that has been so great, at least so great that clearly makes him better than past GMs?

I think we have a good team, but I'm not sure that we're growing/progressing, whatever you want to call it from the early days of the TD era, and there are a variety of factors that make it so. But I think a big part of it is poor decision making at the top-level of the franchise.

Drafting has been mediocre, free agent moves have been mediocre, and this of course leads to mediocrity, which IMO explains what is perceived by many including myself, the sizeable gap between us and the top teams in the league. And IMHO, until the Falcons start drafting much better and stop overpaying people in free agency, that gap isn't going to decrease.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:40 pm 
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Quote:
but I'm not sure that we're growing/progressing, whatever you want to call it from the early days of the TD era


:lol:

It IS the early days of the TD era for Christ's sakes.


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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:44 pm 
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I doubt that when Rich McKay was fired as the GM of the Falcons after his 4th year, "Hey guys, it's still early for him, let's see if he can turn it around."

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:00 pm 
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That's because Robert Kraft gave Blank the name Thomas D; AND Blank knew he needed to call off his embarrassing
10 man search for a Head Coach, and Kraft probably told him the Gm needs to make the Head Coaching hire.....and McKay
should have known about Vick's lack of work ethic, but it was covered up--except for Reeves; who called him out when his leg was better.

All the franchises "melt down" was too much for McKay to overcome to keep the G.M. position when Kraft gave Blank a better person.

I know you don't like the Julio Trade, but I thought it was to get a long term deep threat, not to carry us to a Super Bowl.
so if that turns out good, or not, a lot will depend on that move; to judge TD. as to last years moves.....

As we've discussed to death; the fact that Ryan had trouble hitting Julio long was a step back or at least a stumbling block for the franchise
to move forward....It does seem Thomas D. has neglected the Offensive line which is something McKay did too, and that puts this problem
right on Thomas D's shoulders.... Their you have a real beef; as do most Falcon fans over the last 20 years......I like to see the 2012 draft
focused on linemen and yes we can find a good one at pick # 55.

We need a good right guard, and hopefully W. Stivik can still play ok for one last year.... Veterans will be used to bolster this years draft.....

Does anyone know for sure who pays our free agents?? Usually its the Gm but McKay is the Franchise's President and I've never read
who actually does the negotiating? Does anyone have a link that actually says who watches over our salary cap??

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:33 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
I know you don't like the Julio Trade, but I thought it was to get a long term deep threat, not to carry us to a Super Bowl.

And that statement right there is exactly why I don't like the move. If all they wanted was a long-term deep threat, then they did not have to pay as high a premium.

The Ravens got a long-term deep threat in Torrey Smith, and it only required them giving up a 2nd round pick. Smith was taken with the 58th overall pick, one pick before the Falcons would have chosen at #59. And had the Falcons gone in a different direction in Round 1, and held onto their 2nd round pick, and targeted Smith, they could have given up the 5th rounder they gave up in the Rodgers trade to move up in Round 2 to get him. Thus they would have been able to keep their 1st this year, 4th this year and last year, and still would have potentially had an extra 7th round pick as well. Jonathan Baldwin went where we picked in Round 1.

You could have had Denarius Moore in the 5th round. Tandon Doss in the 4th round.

The Chargers were shopping Vincent Jackson for a 2nd & 4th round pick. Brandon Lloyd was traded to the Rams for a 5th round pick. Lee Evans was traded to Baltimore for a 4th round pick.

The Falcons could have signed Malcom Floyd or Braylon Edwards if they wanted a long-term deep threat last summer.

Vincent Jackson, Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Lloyd are all on the market this off-season.

You have a deeper crop of WRs in this draft's which features Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd who could go off the board right around where the Falcons would be picking at in Round 1. As well, as the potential to get players such as Stephen Hill, Tommy Streeter, JUron Criner, Dwight Jones, Reuben Randle, DeVier Posey, and AJ Jenkins that can potentially add that downfield threat to your offense in later rounds.

Like myself and others have said, Julio Jones can't just be a good deep threat. He has to be significantly more than that to be worth what we gave up for him. This is exactly what I'm talking about with TD, not quite being able to find value and overpaying for players. He's done this time and time again, with the Jerry pick, Jones pick, and Robinson/Edwards signings.

Out of the 6 biggest moves this team has made over the past 3 off-seasons, 4 of them have had them vastly overpaying: Edwards, Robinson, Jones, & Jerry vs. Gonzo & Spoon. That should be a major concern.

And the crazy part of it, is that much of the argument of why the Jones move was a good trade was because Dimitroff has not done a good job drafting in the latter half of Round 1 and in Rounds 4 or later. And that's exactly what I'm talking about with how poorly run this team has been in recent off-seasons.

So I'm stuck trying to figure out what has Thomas Dimitroff done lately that makes him so much better than McKay? You look at McKay's 4 first round picks (Hall, Jenkins, White, Anderson), and he had hit on 2 of them, throw another miss in Jimmy Williams, so he was 2 of 5 on top draft choices. Then you look at his big FA moves (Coleman, Webster, Abraham, Milloy, Hartwell, and Horn), and hit hit on half of them.

I'm hoping that starting this off-season, he starts to make up for his recent mistakes and corrects some of these bad contracts he's given out, and starts hitting with his draft picks.

But given how things look to be headed: keeping Turner, overpaying Lofton, dumping Abe & Grimes, and who knows what we wind up with in the draft, it doesn't seem like that hope will be fulfilled.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:46 am 
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Well Abe was not a free agent; we gave up a #1 for him too, but I'm wanting to look forward.......(and it turned out to be worth it
despite his reputation for injuries)

While Blanks last franchise Qb was a dog killing Qb; I'm hoping Matt Ryan will improve in some critical areas
this next year.... While most say the team revolves around M. Turner; I'm hoping we can strengthen our O-line and
have Ryan & Roddy & Julio all have big parts in our offense....

You've never given the front offense any credit for having good assistants wanting to come here now that we've
had one coordinator move on to be a head coach but that's ok...... Like I said; I don't really have any arguments with what your saying
except their can always be reason's we don't get the guy we like.....and the win's speak for themselves; but I also have doubts of
how this next season will pan out with questions along the Offensive line; & Defensive Line!!

So I'm not singing "Rise Up" I'm saying its time for about 4 of our question marks to become good effective players!!

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:53 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:02 pm 
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If you think my criticism is based entirely on hindsight, then you haven't been paying attention over the years AJ51.

Most of my criticism of the front office in this thread, are the same points I made 9 months ago: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=15421

My opinions about many of these picks/signings aren't things I've expressed only after they were made. My concerns about Peria Jerry, Ray Edwards were documented well before we signed/drafted them. I said at the time when we signed Dunta Robinson that he was being overpaid: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12596

I gave TD & Co. the benefit of the doubt early on because I thought most of their moves were good to solid, even the ones I did not agree with at the time (Turner signing) and we were winning, which was a major improvement from previous regimes. But I also thought that this team would continue to build via the draft, and over the course of having good drafts year in and year out, we would see it pay dividends during the season. But as time has gone on, I've seen that their decisions make less and less sense, and smack of desperation than good common sense/planning.

So I've reached a point where I'm not going to bite my tongue if I believe they are making a poor/questionable decisions. And if that includes nitpicks like criticizing them for keeping Brett Romberg on the roster for no apparent reason, then so be it.

I still think Dimitroff is a good GM, and better than McKay. I just don't think he's done a good job the last couple of years. And I would argue the reason for that is complacency. TD is no longer the Vegan Jesus in my eyes, he's more like the Vegan Simon.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:38 pm 
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Quote:
I still think Dimitroff is a good GM, and better than McKay. I just don't think he's done a good job the last couple of years. And I would argue the reason for that is complacency. TD is no longer the Vegan Jesus in my eyes, he's more like the Vegan Simon.



You can nitpick EVERY one of Dimitroff's move's if you choose. EVERYONE has 20/20 vision when they put on the hindsight glasses. Too me, it's not that complicated. I understand that not every draft pick is going to work out. I understand that not every Free Agent is going to live up to expectations.

I also understand that this team is more talented and has more depth than it did four years ago. As a franchise, we are heading in the right direction, for the first time possibly ever. You can knock TD all you want, it's your right, but it is also because of him we have a shot at the playoffs (and more) every season instead of being out of it by Turkey Day.


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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:09 pm 
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AngryJohnny51 wrote:
I also understand that this team is more talented and has more depth than it did four years ago. As a franchise, we are heading in the right direction, for the first time possibly ever. You can knock TD all you want, it's your right, but it is also because of him we have a shot at the playoffs (and more) every season instead of being out of it by Turkey Day.

That exact statement was how I felt as recent as two years ago, and again thus why I was mostly praising of him and this team. But I don't feel that we are headed in the right direction anymore, if the "right direction" is considered to be up. I think this team has essentially leveled out, and without significant improvements at the top of the organization, with the front office in their personnel decisions, and the coaching with their coaching decisions, that won't change.

As I've stated before, I want to see progress towards the goal of winning championships. Now, I think that their decisions made in recent off-seasons, particularly this last one, has stalled them on reaching that goal, and I'm not expecting this team to make significant gains towards that goal in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong, but I think if I was to peer in my crystal ball to look ahead 2-3 years from now, there is going to be a dramatic shift in the fan base and its perception with this front office/coaching staff/and players if they continue down this path. If they maintain the status quo as far as their drafting and free agency moves, then they are going to be in trouble in a few years. I think this is what essentially happened with Dan Reeves post-1998. Now Reeves IMO was done in because the Falcons averaged just 6 wins over the next 3 years after going to the Super Bowl. I don't expect the Falcons, Mike Smith, or TD to be that bad in the coming years, but I think this fan base could just as easily turn on them as it did with Reeves (it's already begun to a degree). But because this team is likely going to win more games than Reeves did post-1998, the turn is probably going to be drawn out over longer. But this is a fan base that isn't exactly known for its unwavering support in the face of adversity.

There is a lot more good than bad in Atlanta, and despite my negativity and criticism towards this team, I still believe that is true. But I do think there is probably more bad than a lot of people are willing to admit, and it may take another 2-3 years of watching this team go 9-7 and be a "championship pretender" rather than contender, for others to come to the same conclusion.

But I've always known I was a pioneer in progressive thought. :up:

Long story short, I'm just saying maintaining the status quo is not going to cut it.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 4:07 pm 
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Believe it or not, I understand where you are coming from Pudge. You want more and you want it now. I mean, what fan doesn't?
I'm just trying to step back and look at the big picture. The Falcons, my team, are in the best shape they have been in since I've been a fan. (circa 1977.) It's hard for me to say a team has leveled off after four quick years (One being a lock out where rookies couldn't practice and some vets got lazy).

They are heading in the right direction....maybe not as fast as we would all hope, but thee is improvement in all areas. Don't confuse my "happiness" for complacency.


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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:37 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
But this is a fan base that isn't exactly known for its unwavering support in the face of adversity.


Long story short, I'm just saying maintaining the status quo is not going to cut it.

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h/t GOTC at the Roost. hilarious stuff

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:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 2:32 am 
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Lets be straight about the Reeves years.... He had two winning season's in 7 years.... He started at 53 years old; and as he was moving toward 13-3 in 2003 he was 59.... His age and Vick not supporting him, and Arthur thinking this was an easy business; all
played a part of Reeves Quitting when he was told he was getting fired in 3 weeks.....

I mean saying the team isn't being run right is something any fan can say and stick their till there's a Super Bowl. Its a
real SAFE place to sit; FOR EVERY FAN FOR EVERY TEAM!! Few 10 win teams get better, but if we win 9; make the playoffs,
and win 2 playoff games it won't be good enough.....calling for poor play is not very progressive; its usually safe!!

I won't look it up again but I think the Packers were about 9 years with one playoff win, and didn't make the playoffs the year before their last Super Bowl win!! Point is things happen you don't expect!!

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:35 am 
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Basing whether the Falcons are run well or not entirely off the win-loss record is a little weak. That is certainly a major consideration, but I don't think that is the only consideration. I'm looking mainly at personnel decisions.

I think the Falcons regressed this past year, and I don't think it was representative of the normal ups and downs of NFL teams that they experience year to year, I think that regression was caused in large part because of poor personnel decisions made by TD & Co. over the past 2 or so years. I don't think the Falcons have done a good job sustaining the success and carrying over the trends that they established at the outset of the TD-Smitty Era in 2008 into the past 2 or so off-seasons. I don't really have much issue with the '09 off-season besides the Jerry pick, which I think like the Baker pick was a reach based entirely off need, not drafting a 1st round talent. I can forgive the Baker pick somewhat because it's a highly important position and Baker was a borderline 1st round talent. But Jerry IMO was a late 2nd round talent that didn't really deserve to be taken in the Top 40-45 picks, and we made him the 24th overall pick.

But the past two off-seasons and the major decisions this team has made concern me somewhat. I like the Weatherspoon pick, and I can forgive the Robinson move because we really, really needed a corner and we were desperate at that point. But we definitely overpaid for him, and we gave up Chris Houston for a 5th rounder IIRC, and I think most would say Houston in Detroit has been on par with Robinson in Atlanta. Would Houston have netted the same results had he stayed in Atlanta? Probably not. But we basically are paying a guy $30 million for what is a very minor upgrade. And I know everybody else seems to love Corey Peters, who I think can still be a good NFL player, but I'm not ready to chalk him up as anything as a solid single at this point. And although some will chalk it up as hindsight but if you read my profiles of some of those TEs taken after Peters like Moeaki, Hernandez, and Jimmy Graham, you would have known then that I thought they would have been much better picks than Peters who I think was a good prospect, but not the type of player that can excel in Atlanta.

And then this past year with the Jones trade, the Dent pick, and Edwards signing. I don't really hate the Edwards signing because we got him for a fairly good price, but only if he produces at the 6-8 sack level that he should be producing.

But the common strand here seems to be the Falcons putting a lot of eggs in a single basket with singings like Robsinon, trades like Jones, and then supplementing that with nice complementary options, but rarely ever going after really good players in the middle portion of the draft. And this along with other decisinos like cutting Jenkins, trading guys like Houston & Laurent Robinson for pennies and then replacing them with lesser players like Franks and Meier, and their unwillingness to really go after FAs during the season smacks to me of complacency. Because it tells me that they think this roster is way more talented than it actually is.

I keep seeing them IMHO doing a poor job at assessing value. They keep drafting these role players and passing up on guys that can be top-level starters in the draft. And when TD first came to Atlanta, he preached about looking at both the FA market and the upcoming draft class to determine value, and weighing the strengths and weaknesses of both when looking at the team needs to determine whether they should fill one of those needs by signing a player or waiting till the draft.

And I don't think they've done that particularly well over the last off-season or two. And I think they made the mistake that few other teams did and they overreacted to the lockout. I think if there was no lockout, we probably don't make the Jones trade. But I think they started to get desperate because of the lockout and assumed that they would not be able to supplement the roster with veteran players, and then decided to make a big splash on draft day. And this idea that giving up the future 1st was no big deal I think was based off how much they overrated the talent on this roster as well as the completely asinine idea that a late 1st round pick won't be missed that much. Clearly, TD hasn't noticed all of the great players that have been picked in the 20s over the past 7 or 8 drafts.

And some chalk it up to using hindsight, but every single one of these moves that I'm now questioning, were moves that at the time we made them I questioned, and none of them have paid off.

I'm not saying that we have an incompetent front office when I say we are poorly run. But over the past 2 or so years, I don't see this team having made any really good decisions over say what a middle-rung football team has done in that span, and I think the Falcons success as far as wins goes, is probably riding more off the coattails of good decision making in 2008 and perhaps 2009 than anything they've done in 2010 or 2011.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 1:38 pm 
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Wow, long thread, but....isn't it simpler to break all this down?

1 - We have sucked for eternity, only SB trip was a total embarassment. Winning seasons...
2 - At the end of McKay's tenure most were more than happy to see him go. Plus the Petrinos, Moras...
3 - Hindsight or not at this point, Dimitroff has proven to be no better than McKay. Proof is in the players, or lack there of...
4 - We are a lot better as a franchise now, but look where we came from...
5 - Complacency breeds more complacency.

Moral to the story, are we better than most of our history, yes. Are we close to winning a SB, no. And if anything, with the FA situation/roster we have now, nothing points to much improvement towards that goal. If anything we may be regressing in the scheme of things compared to other clubs.

Current Falcons = Good is the worst enemy of great.

Its nice to be "good" and all, but I want a SB. Only moves toward said goal should matter, not that were simply better now than our awful history.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2012 1:59 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
Lets be straight about the Reeves years.... He had two winning season's in 7 years.... He started at 53 years old; and as he was moving toward 13-3 in 2003 he was 59.... His age and Vick not supporting him, and Arthur thinking this was an easy business; all
played a part of Reeves Quitting when he was told he was getting fired in 3 weeks.....

I mean saying the team isn't being run right is something any fan can say and stick their till there's a Super Bowl. Its a
real SAFE place to sit; FOR EVERY FAN FOR EVERY TEAM!! Few 10 win teams get better, but if we win 9; make the playoffs,
and win 2 playoff games it won't be good enough.....calling for poor play is not very progressive; its usually safe!!

I won't look it up again but I think the Packers were about 9 years with one playoff win, and didn't make the playoffs the year before their last Super Bowl win!! Point is things happen you don't expect!!

Great point. It's funny that Reeve swas 53 when he began here...as that is may age now and I kind of thought of him as an over the hill retread. This also means he had his heart troubles at 54 which puts things in perspective on several levels--both personal and rergarding the team. I think with th edrafting ofVick--erroneously or not--the thought in the fan base was that we could catch lightning in a bottle and possibly ride his back to a SB. I don't think Ryan is viewed similarly. He's a guy that can run a system and you can build around...a very stable albeit somewhat muted commodity. Smith is not that different than Reeves and it was Reeves the GM that really hurt him. I think he could have easily done as well as Mora did with a Vick led Falcons and had Blank not been residing behind Vick's nut sack he might have done better. Who knows? Reeves was/is a tough SOB to have even been back on that sideline for the SB. Too bad he thought guys liek T. Mathis and E. Robinson had his back.

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 Post subject: Re: Lofton moved out of nickel situations?
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:28 am 
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Pudge thanks for the update of " poorly managed".... We disagree about some like "Houston" and I've kept an eye on "Stretch"
because I also thought he could be a good player.... I feel reading between the lines Thomas D. could never have Julio do enough
to justify that trade for you....

It could for me if Julio gets open and Ryan hits him!! Repeats and repeats again!! (We're 30 million under the cap, see cap thread)

but Ok, lets say your right; I still believe Thomas D. is pretty darn good..... Another reason I liked the Jerry Pick is I believe (maybe wrong) but Orr went right before him or right ahead of him..... I'd think the Arkansas coach and perhaps Thomas D. himself may have watched Jerry vs. Orr in practice, but I can't honestly say exactly how good Orr is.... Its one of those things we'll never know is what that injury did to Jerry's career!!

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