The Incomparable wrote:
The reason Dunn's numbers have looked good this year is because he pops off a big run almost every game. That is obviously a good thing & a factor, but there are too many teams that will stuff Dunn 3 out of 4 runs for us to keep running him as a feature back.
Here's some stats I think you want to consider. Dunn's rankings in the league in various rushing categories (DUckett's and Vick's if they qualify):6th in % stuffs per carry (Duckett = 1st)
3rd in % 1st downs on 3rd & Short (less than 3)
7th in rushing yards on 1st & 10
8th in 1st downs per carry (Vick = 1st)
4th in big play rushes (over 10 yards)
8th in % 1st downs on all 3rd downs (Vick = 9th)
8th in yards/carry on first 10 carries (Vick = 2nd, Duckett = 14th)1st in yards/carry on carries 11-20
Stuffs per carry = % of times the players is stopped for a loss when he carries the ball.
I bolded the ones I thought were really important to note. These 8 categories are not the only ones that matter for a RB, but I think few could argue that they are 8 of probably the most important areas for a truly solid RB to excel in.
I think the first stat clearly shows that when Dunn or Duckett is "stuffed" they tend to always get positive yardage, whether it may only be 1 or 2 yards, it's still better than -1 or -2.
I think these stats clearly show that saying our running game is overrated is really off base. To deflect praise for that from Dunn and/or the O-line is really an injustice.
Would Duckett be the most "successful" RB in the league (in terms of gaining positive yardage) behind any other line? No. LT doesn't even rank in the Top 20, neither does Tiki Barber or Shaun Alexander, 3 players that are considered top backs running behind awesome OLs. Would we have 2 players in the Top 10 of 3 major "success" categories?:
Stuffs per carry (success of gaining positive yardage each time you touch the ball)
1st downs per carry (success of moving the chains each time you touch the ball)
1st downs on 3rd downs (success of moving the chains each time you touch the ball on 3rd down)
I mean you guys are callling our running game overrated when we put up 120 yards on the ground against the #2 rushing defense in the league. Only the Bears (122) and Jets (137) had more.
I think people are throwing the team under the bus after a loss. Besides maybe New England, the Bucs and Panthers are the toughest teams on teh schedule. Sure, the Falcons have been disappointing in both games, but that doesn't mean that is their usual playing level. They are division games, the Bucs and Panthers happened to come out stronger, faster, and better THIS time around. It's not going to be the same next time.
Vs. Carolina, on there were 6 possessions where we had the ball for 4 plays or less (not counting the one at the end of the 1st half). Dunn's #s on those possessions were 4 carries for 11 yards (2.8 avg). His numbers the rest of the game? 12 carries for 69 yards (5.8 avg). What were Vick's numbers on those 6 possessions:
1 for 10 (10%) for 8 yards, 1 INT, and sacked 3 times.
Vick's numbers the rest of the game:
16 for 25 (64%) for 163 yards, 1 INT, and sacked 2 times.
We were effective for some of the game, we just couldn't finish drives.