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 Post subject: Playoffs just got harder
PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2005 5:54 pm 
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Tampa managed to whack the Panthers this week. So our wild card hopes are fading faster. Especially if both Dallas and New York win this week.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2005 6:01 pm 
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I thought we wanted the Bucs to win, so we can beat both the bucs and the panthers, and clinch our DIV?

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2005 8:59 pm 
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winning the division is a fantasy at this point and so maybe is getting a wild card. our best bet was bucs losing and dallas losing, as of now they have those 2 wild card spots, one of which we want. here's hoping one of those 2 teams tank it because that's what its gonna take at this point, especially considering the falcs, notwithstanding some miracle, will not run the board. they will be good if they win 2 of the remaining 4. its pretty amazing the falcs have not beat a team with a winning record and i cannot include the minnesota vikings because they were a completely different team when we played them.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:36 pm 
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Usually one team folds down the stretch...unfortunately, we are the only team left who could fold this week since everyone else won. :shock:


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:51 pm 
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Can we clinch the division if we win the rest of our games?

I don't see why we're all wishing for a wildcard when we still have chances to win the Division with a solid finish. They might be slim chances, but still

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:08 am 
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Yes, we still have a chance of winning the division, but it would probably require teh Saints to beat both the Panthers and Bucs at some point, and also requires the Falcons to run the table. Also I believe the Bucs would need to lose to the Patriots as well.

But to expect all those things to happen is really a very big wish. The Saints aren't good enough to beat either the Panthers or Bucs (yes, they did beat the Panties in Week 1). Basically the only team they are good enough to beat in this division is us IMO.

I think the Falcons have a better chance than most think of winning 3 of our remaining 4 games, but to expect them to beat both the Bears and Bucs on consecutive road games is a huge question mark.

If the Chiefs won today, it would have made things good. Basically catching either the Bucs and Panthers probably won't happen until the final game. So the best we can hope for now is that the Cowboys and Vikings lose a few more.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2005 2:27 pm 
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If we are to win the balance of our schedule we will sit at 11-5 as will the Panthers and the Bucs (assuming they win their other games). If there is a three way tie at the end of the season I believe this is how it plays out in our division:

*Note that the second step in tie breakers is head to head results. All three teams have 1-1 record against each other.

Atlanta: 11-5 (Overall); 4-2 (Division); 9-3 (Common Games); 8-4 (Conference)
Tampa 11-5 (Overall); 4-2 (Division); 9-3 (Common Games); 8-4 (Conference)
Carolina 11-5 (Overall), 3-3 (Division)

By these numbers assuming it ends in a three way tie Carolina becomes irrelevant because of their division record and must beat out Dallas for a wild card spot (hence the reason why I left out the rest of their numbers.

After division games it goes to common games. Both Atlanta and Tampa are 9-3 in this instance. Then we go to conference games were both teams are 8-4. At this point we go to strength of victory (this could be open to interpretation). So off to the math board I go to figure this one out...

Tampa Average Margin of Victory: 7 Points
Atlanta Average Margin of Victory: 12 Points

So believe it or not with the current numbers (obviously I can't project out the final games for either club) the Falcons would win the division under a scenario were all three times and Atlanta has a better strength of victory. This would make Tampa a wild card team and Carolina would likely get bounced unless Dallas fell apart in which case we could see 3 NFC South teams go to the playoffs.

It is entirely possible I have brain farts in the logic.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2005 2:32 pm 
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For future reference below are the steps the NFL takes to resolve ties and playoff seeding:

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

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