Reeves to Texans

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Reeves to Texans

Postby Pudge » Wed Dec 14, 2005 12:43 am

If you've checked out Pro Football Talk's rumor mill this week, you've seen several stories discussing Dan Reeves' new consultant role with the Houston Texans, and the possible connections with Ron Hill, and the pair being the successors of Casserly and Capers there.

It's interesting situation. I think the Texans would be stupid not to try and go after Mike Martz to lead that team. Matching Martz and Reggie Bush with Andre Johnson and David Carr would instantly give the Titans an offense to reckon with. They just need to get better on the OL and play better defense, but that would likely improve if they moved to the 4-3 and picked up a pass rusher.

If Reeves took over, the Texans would not use the #1 on Bush. Reeves would pass up on probably the most talented player since Vick. Why? Because Dan Reeves wouldn't understand how to use a 200-pound RB and design an offense that made best use of him.

Reeves is a good coach, but at this point in his career, I look at him as a transitional guy. Would he improve the Texans from what Capers did? Probably, I mean it's not like he has huge standards to live up to. But he's not a guy that is going make the Texans a contender. I compare him to a college coach that is hired to take a bottom rung team to a December bowl game, but he's not the guy that is going to get them to be playing in January. IN fact, I think Reeves coaching style is better suited for the college game nowadays than a return to the NFL. I thought he would have been the ideal successor to Holtz at SC, but they went in a completely different direction. Maybe the Texans should do the same thing with Martz.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Wed Dec 14, 2005 4:18 am

Mike Martz is the worst coach in the NFL. Only a complete & utter effing moron could ruin the Rams the way Martz has, yet all the dumb efs on ESPN ever say is that he is a genius. It really is sad in a strange, esoteric kind of way.

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:05 pm

If I was Texas I would go with Reeves at head coach as long as he doesn't have any power of GM. Martz is an ass flake and personally drove the Rams right into the ground and were they are today.

Reeves is 100x the coach Martz could ever dream of being.
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Postby ether3917 » Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:15 pm

The_Incomparable wrote:Mike Martz is the worst coach in the NFL. Only a complete & utter effing moron could ruin the Rams the way Martz has, yet all the dumb efs on ESPN ever say is that he is a genius. It really is sad in a strange, esoteric kind of way.



I agree...Martz is about as bad of a coach as I've ever seen. By the way Pudge, what do you mean Reeves would pass on Bush...Reeves and Hill traded up for Vick. I think more credit should be given to Reeves. He is a good coach, and might still be our coach had Vick not been injured. I wish him good luck with the Texans, if thats where he chooses to coach.

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:20 pm

Giving his buddy Wade Phillips the DC job didn't help either. Along with all the talking heads constantly beating on Reeves and his offense in respect to how Vick is utilized. Everyone kept saying WCO! WCO! WCO! In retrospect it appears that Dan Reeves knew what he was doing ;).

Go Figure.
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Postby Steve-O » Wed Dec 14, 2005 2:22 pm

Reeves knows what he's doing on offense...he's a good coach....I think whoever said he might pass on Bush might be onto something though...they could trade down easily to another top 5 team and get all sorts of picks....then they could draft an O lineman which is what they really need...they already have a pretty good rb...I know it sounds stupid to pass on the guy everyone thinks is the next Gale Sayers, but how's Reggie gonna get any yards behind that line? I don't know that I personally would pass on Bush but I'd give it some serious thought....

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Wed Dec 14, 2005 3:29 pm

I firmly believe with the logic that you can get far better value our of your picks in the lower part of the 1st round and upper part of the 2nd round. Rookies at those spots cost nearly half as much as a top 10 pick and in many cases they out perform or pace their top-10 counter parts.

I think that Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are solid examples too. They are just now starting to get their game on and they don't cost nearly as much as guys like Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams.

Roddy: 21 Receptions for 349 Yards, 2 TD's, 16.6 YPC
Jenkins: 26 Receptions for 383 Yards, 2 TD's, 12.5 YPC
Edwards: 32 Receptions for 512 Yards, 3TD's, 16 YPC
Williams: 35 Receptions for 518 Yards, 6 TD's, 14.8 YPC
Williamson: 21 Receptions for 304 Yards, 2 TD's, 14.5 YPC
Re. Williams: 24 Receptions for 280 Yards, 0 TD's, 11.7 YPC
M. Williams: 27 Receptions for 320 Yards, 1 TD, 11.9 YPC
L. Fitzgerald: 86 Receptions for 1,151 Yards, 7 TD's, 13.4 YPC

With exception to Roy Williams and Larry Fitzgerald the Falcons are getting far more bang for their buck then the other receivers listed.

The Texans could get oodles of picks if they trade down to the middle of the first round. They could probably get a future 1st and a current 2nd easily.
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Postby Pudge » Wed Dec 14, 2005 9:52 pm

ether3917 wrote:By the way Pudge, what do you mean Reeves would pass on Bush...Reeves and Hill traded up for Vick.


I look at several factors that would lead me to believe that Reeves would pass up on Bush at #1 and instead take someone like Leinart.

1. Bush doesn't quite fit the offensive style of Reeves. In retrospect, it's easy to see that Warrick Dunn was not Reeves ideal choice to replace Jamal. It's why he quickly snatched up Duckett in '02 because T.J. is the type of runner that fits Reeves style. Reeves said it himself, up until 48 hours before the draft the Falcons didn't think they would be in a position to draft Duckett. That being said, I think it's safe to say that the Falcons did not envision the possibility of Duckett being a Falcon when they forked up $25 million or so to sign Warrick Dunn. At that time, they figured Dunn or Garrison Hearst (reportedly our 1st choice before Dunn) were the best options the team had for adding a replacement/supplement to Jamal.

IMO, Bush is best in an offense where he can run outside, line up at WR, and basically do his best to spread defenses out to make advantage of his speed and create other matchup problems. Is that the sort of offense Dan Reeves runs? No, he runs a straight up the gut, 2-WR, 2-TE style offense. What in Reeves history would make you think he would line Bush up as a slot receiver? What in Reeves history would make you think he would try his best to get all 3 of Houston's best weapons on the field at the same: Andre Johnson, Domanick Davis, and Reggie Bush?

2. As you said, Reeves and Hill traded up for Vick. Who is a QB? I think Reeves would sort of wish for the proverbial lightning to strike twice. Look at what Vick did for the Falcons. Maybe Leinart can do the same for the Texans. Only Eli Manning since Vick has brought the sort of excitment to NFL scouts as Leinart does. Almost every "expert" in the world would tell you that Leinart would be a shoe-in for the #1 pick under normal circumstances. But Bush is what makes this draft abnormal.

3. David Carr is set to hit free agency after this year. The Texans have to decide whether they think Carr is worth keeping and paying a few million, or to go in a new direction. Financially, keeping Carr is going to cost less than what it will be to draft a QB #1. But I think with Martz, he would look at Carr as a continuation of the types of QBs he's had success with:

1. Trent Green, a career 3rd stringer until he went to Washington and supplanted Gus Frerotte as the starter. The very next year Martz moves onto St. Louis and brings Green with him, but..
2. Kurt Warner emerges as a AFL/marginal NFL QB and has MVP seasons under Martz. Then...
3. Marc Bulger. A guy that bounced from practice squad to practice squad his first few years in the league, but finally takes over for Warner, and is currently one of the 5 most successful (winning %) QBs in the NFL.

Carr is exactly the type of QB that Martz loves and has won with. A guy that most people think is done or not good enough and will be a perfect fit into his offense. Now, under Reeves, I see Reeves saying, "No, Carr has been contributing to the team's losing ways and it's time to go in another direction."

Now I don't believe that Reeves is the only coach out there that would make that decision, since it is an unwritten rule that when a new head coach takes over a team, they draft a QB.

If you look at the 52 head coaching changes that have occurred from 1997 to the present that were considered new regimes (i.e an interim head coach was not promoted or a former assistant promoted), in 30 of those cases, that team drafted a QB in the very next draft. And in 6 of those 22 cases in which the new head coach did not choose a QB, his predecessor had picked a QB in first 4 rounds of the draft the year before (which usually prompts that they give those caliber guys a bit more time to develop). If you look at the coaching chances under the same conditions that have come in the past 5 years, from 2001 on, it has been 16 QBs drafted in 27 hires. Roughly, that means that the Texans have a 60% chance of drafting a QB this upcoming off-season.

When Reeves took over the Falcons in 1997, he drafted Tony Graziani. In 1981, he drafted Mark Herrmann in his first draft with the Broncos. He did not draft a player for the Giants in 1993, but one could argue that may have had something to do with the team using a first round pick on Dave Brown in the previous summer's supplemental draft.

So when you look at these factors, I think that Dan Reeves if all things were equal, would take Matt Leinart #1 before he took Reggie Bush.

And yes trading down is definitely an option. The Texans will be in a position to trade down with any team willing to jump up to get Leinart or Bush. Those teams that stand a chance are the Jets, Saints, Titans, Browns, Lions, Ravens, Raiders, and Cardinals all possibly looking for a QB of Leinart's caliber, or the 49ers, Packers, Cardinals, and Ravens all that might be in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.

Of course all this argument is moot if Bush shocks the world and stays in school.
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Postby dirtybirdnw » Thu Dec 15, 2005 1:33 am

The real question as to whether or not the Texans take Bush is their faith in Davis. Davis is a rising star in the NFL although he has injury issues. If I was in the Texans position if Davis was sure to be healthy then I would trade down and go after offensive and defensive line help. The value of the #1 overall pick is greatly inflated right now.
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Interesting thoughts on Reeves

Postby thescout » Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:05 am

It is interesting seeing people's opinions about reeve's and how he may advise the Texans. All the years in atlanta Reeve's rarely ever took a lineman in the top roudns of the draft.I wonder if he will advise the Texans to trade down to pick up more picks and then draft a QB like a Vince young? I think it is very possible you could see the Texans do that since Carr would be paid a boat load of money for resigning and he hasn't done a thing.Of course when you have a bad offensive line it is hard to gauge.I just think the Texans need a new image and more talent to block for the QB.I think the team trading up to get the no1 pick will have to give up a few high picks and the Texans could get healthy quickly.

Texans trade down and say they pick up the 4th or 5th teams no1 and this yrs 2,and 3 plus a no1 next yr possibly.

You could draft Vince young no4,5 in the draft then add off linemen in round 2 like Andrew Whitworth and Jeremy Trueblood or another quality lineman in the top of the second round. At this point I am not sure the Jets or whoever the 5th pick would be if they traded up would take leinhart over vince young. Some how I think the Jets get another QB since pennington is iffy alot of the times.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:27 am

I doubt he would take Bush too honestly. After the way he was uncerimoniously escorted out of Atlanta after Vick got hurt, Reeves will be looking for more of a sure thing like Brick, Williams (either one), or Kiwanuka.

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:51 am

IMO Carr is overrated to begin with. Although I doubt they would draft Vince Young unless they could get something substantial for Carr. It would be a great PR move to draft Young and keep him in Texas.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:50 pm

Carr is far from overrated. He is playing behind the worst pass blocking Oline in the NFL and it has really hurt his development, but he is really showing signs of being a solid NFL QB this year now that the line is playing a little better. If they decided to go that route I think they could move Carr & pick up Young, but I think they're confident in Carr's ability to carry them through the future.

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Postby Capologist » Thu Dec 15, 2005 10:07 pm

Reeves wasn't a horrible coach at all but he was a horrible GM and extremely boring in his press conferences. It was always execution instead of taking heat himself or putting it where it needed to be put.

I wish him well but I'm glad he's not here...

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Postby Pudge » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:12 am

I agree, I think Carr is a good QB. He's not fully developed and having 4 of the worst lines in NFL history all 4 of his years in Houston hasn't helped him a lot. Carr is sacked every 8.7 times he drops back, basically meaning he's lucky if he can go more than 2 or 3 series without being sacked.

Leinart is going to be a really good QB. And yes, if all things were equal and I had to choose which player I would take between them, it would be Leinart rather than Carr. But I think the Texans can win with Carr, if they protecting him better, improved on defense, and had a really dangerous ground game. Davis is a good player that just got a 5-year extension this past summer, and if he was behind an improved line his production would be much better. But he's not a good fit for an indoor team. He's not a homerun threat, and I think if you play on turf you need a RB with speed to break the long ones. Davis has as many 20-yard runs as Duckett does in their careers. If the Texans drafted a QB this year, it would mean they are starting over. I don't think that's fair to the fans to basically say the past 4 years have been a total waste. You get Bush, he immediately helps that team much more than Leinart or Young could, or even Ferguson, this year's top LT. IMO, it's a no brainer to take Bush if you're in Reeves or whoever is running the show's shoes.

BTW, IMO I don't think Young is going to come out. After USC destroys Texas in the Rose Bowl by 20 points, Young will return to school and compete with Brady Quinn for the Heisman and a national title next year.

But if Young did come out, I could definitely see Reeves trading down 2 or 3 spots, taking him and expecting him to be the next Vick.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:51 am

Taking bush is not a no brainer at all. Davis has proven to be a premier back in this league & having to share touches with Bush. The fact is that the texans may take Bush based on all the Gale Sayers talk, but the intelligent move would be to trade down into the 4 or 5 slot & take Brick to anchor thier line. Of course hype usually outweighs logic come draft day, but only time will tell.

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Talking about this on eSPN Radio Today

Postby thescout » Fri Dec 16, 2005 11:32 pm

Interesting they were talking about what the Texans will probably do come draft time if the have the no1.Schlerick and Trey Wingo said you got to take bush not only because of gale sayers comparrisions but box office appeal.Hasn't been a player this hyped in a while.Schelrick said he has never seen a worse offense so my guess is they hit free agency and the rest of the draft hard with offensive linemen.
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Postby mickvick302 » Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:48 pm

The_Incomparable wrote:Carr is far from overrated. He is playing behind the worst pass blocking Oline in the NFL and it has really hurt his development, but he is really showing signs of being a solid NFL QB this year now that the line is playing a little better. If they decided to go that route I think they could move Carr & pick up Young, but I think they're confident in Carr's ability to carry them through the future.


I completely agree...its a wonder how he isnt hurt by now. I don't like the kid's pretty boy appearence...reminds me too much of Tom Brady, but whatever floats there boats...But the Texan's Oline is horrendous...and that is being considerate
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Re: Talking about this on eSPN Radio Today

Postby The_Incomparable » Sun Dec 18, 2005 12:12 am

thescout wrote:Interesting they were talking about what the Texans will probably do come draft time if the have the no1.Schlerick and Trey Wingo said you got to take bush not only because of gale sayers comparrisions but box office appeal.Hasn't been a player this hyped in a while.Schelrick said he has never seen a worse offense so my guess is they hit free agency and the rest of the draft hard with offensive linemen.


These are also the same morons who said Reeves needed to install the WCO to better utilize Vick. :roll: I try not to put any stock into what the talking heads say, as they are there to get ratings & not to make objective, unbiased observations.


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