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 Post subject: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:59 am 
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It's interesting how talk of the Falcons trading up has gathered more attention considering how Monday is the three-year anniversary of the team's last blockbuster deal. On this day in 2011, general manager Thomas Dimitroff surrendered five draft picks -- two first-rounders, a second-rounder and two fourth-round picks -- to the Cleveland Browns in order to move up from No. 27 to No. 6 in the first round and select game-changing receiver Julio Jones.

Those five picks ended up being the following players, though not all by the Browns: receiver Jonathan Baldwin (drafted by Chiefs following trade with Browns), receiver Greg Little (still with Browns), fullback Owen Marecic (free agent), QB Brandon Weeden (released by Browns, picked up by Cowboys); and receiver Jarius Wright (drafted by Vikings following trade with Browns). Baldwin and Weeden were the first-round picks, Little the second, and Marecic and Wright the fourths.

Some folks still second-guess the Falcons' decision to surrender those five picks, considering how lack of depth was an obvious issue during last season's 4-12 implosion. It didn't help matters when Jones went down with a season-ending foot injury just five games into the year.

Polian doesn't agree with anyone who questions the trade for Jones.

``Difference-makers win championships. You have to have difference-makers,'' Polian said. ``What would you rather have, a difference-maker or three backups? People who criticize it want you to get difference-makers and also have depth and also stay within the salary cap and also pay the quarterback. That's Fantasyland.''

In terms of Clowney being a difference-maker worth trading up for, Polian said there's little disputing the defensive end's talent.

``There's absolutely no question about that, talent-wise,'' Polian said. ``But you never know how a player is going to play when he comes into the National Football League. There are no sure things. But as far as a difference-maker, you know, talent-wise, yeah absolutely. No question about it.''

The Falcons seem destined to target one of five players if they keep the sixth pick or trade up: Clowney, outside linebacker Khalil Mack, and offensive tackles Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, and Taylor Lewan.

``I have always quoted Tony Dungy, with whom I agree completely, that if you're in the top 10, you probably would like to get a guy that scores touchdowns, throws touchdowns, catches touchdowns, sacks the quarterback or turns the ball over,'' Polian said. ``That's ideal. Other than that, if one of those people aren't there in the opinion of the drafting club, then you take the best player, whoever that may be.''


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:35 pm 
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People who criticize it want you to get difference-makers and also have depth and also stay within the salary cap and also pay the quarterback. That's Fantasyland.''


The Fantasyland is overpaying the Qb then mentioning the salary cap in the same breath.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:38 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
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People who criticize it want you to get difference-makers and also have depth and also stay within the salary cap and also pay the quarterback. That's Fantasyland.''


The Fantasyland is overpaying the Qb then mentioning the salary cap in the same breath.


What would you have paid him Cyril? Or would you have let Ryan walk and start this rebuilding s***-show all over again?


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 1:50 pm 
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The logic here is that the top 5 picks in the draft will turn out to be the top 5 players from that draft. That's rarely the case.

How many of Seattle's players were top 5 draft picks? How about San Francisco? New England? Denver?

Teams that are consistently successful don't make, "blockbuster deals," to build their teams. The teams that make blockbuster deals end up mired in mediocrity. (Washington, Dallas, Oakland) If you GM sucks at drafting, it doesn't really matter where you pick, your team is going to be devoid of talent. Again, look at Detroit, who has had high draft picks throughout their history, and rarely does anything useful with those picks.

You absolutely need play makers. You need as many of them as you can find. One or two isn't going to get the job done. You need to find players who are hungry, and who want to win. You don't have to give up more picks to find those kinds of guys. The other teams out there who are regularly successful find those guys all the time, in all rounds of the draft. We don't need Clowney. We need Dimitroff to get his crap together and make some solid draft picks with the picks that we have.

Here's a quick challenge... Name the teams in the past 20 years that have traded into the top 5 and have gone on to win the superbowl with that pick on the team.


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 3:03 pm 
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This doesn't hit your criteria exactly, but The Ny Giants had the number
4 draft pick and paid a kings ransom for trading with the Chargers for their first pick in 2004. The Giants also gave up their 3rd round pick in that 2004 draft. The Chargers also got the Giants #1 pick in 2005 and their 5th round in the same year.


The Giants got Eli Manning and we know they've won 2 Super Bowls.

The Chargers got Phillip Rivers and those 3 other picks.... My brain can't go back 20 years but that's an example that paid off for the Giants and I think they gave up a good deal; while the Chargers got a Franchise Qb too.

Arguments can be given Eli vs. Rivers but there is no argument the Giants
have won two Super Bowls off that trade.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 4:51 pm 
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Thanks for the response Cyril. While this doesn't really fit my criteria, it's close enough for a response. ;)

The Chargers came away with Phillip Rivers, Shawne Merriman, Nate Kaeding, and Roman Oben. (in a subsequent trade)

What's interesting about this trade is that Rivers, Manning, and Roethlisberger have very similar stats. Manning and Roethlisberger each have two superbowl wins under their belt. All three of these guys are solid 2nd tier QBs. Picking which one is better is a matter of tossing coins.

Obviously, the trade worked out for both teams. I doubt either team would undo that trade. That said, it seems very possible to me that New York could have done just as well, if not better, if they hadn't made that trade. New York believed that they were getting, "Peyton Manning 2.0," and we know, in hind sight, that's not really the case. Eli Manning is good, but he's considered 2nd tier by most. New York could have been a better football team if they had drafted Roethlisberger or Rivers, and used their picks on other players.

Another thing to consider... I have maintained throughout my discussions on trades, that QB is the only position worth making a big move for. In this case, both players were QBs.


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:54 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
We need Dimitroff to get his crap together and make some solid draft picks with the picks that we have.



I agree! :idea:

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:25 pm 
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I personally think the draft is won in the middle to later rounds. Those are the guys that have the potential to be high impact and build out the back end of the roster that can develop and potentially take over starting jobs and at least initially start out as cheap talent.

In the 1st and 2nd round it's more about not wiffing than anything else.

Then of course I always endorse trading down in the draft. One of the keys to New England becoming such a good team year after year was accumulating a small mountain of draft picks and using those picks wisely.

Based on what I've seen for the cost to move up and grab Clowney it appears Atlanta would have to deal way two picks that could both be impact players for 1 guy that has the physical talent to be an impact player but has a history of injury issues and just not generally being smart and has shown poor work ethic. Seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2014 3:52 pm 
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A good point dirty about the value of the middle rounds. I think middle round picks are somewhat expendable, but a team that drafts well usually will get somebody between Rounds 3 and 5 that can be a Kroy Biermann/Corey Peters-esque contributor. Either a key role player or a solid starter every year or every other year.

I think you can be willing to package those picks to move up into the draft because ultimately drafts are most often made and broken in the 1st and 2nd rounds, but I do think you have to target good players in those middle rounds.

Unfortunately, I think too many teams look for needs with those picks and wind up often getting stuck with lesser players because they fill needs. I think instead teams should be more need-based in free agency, and particularly in the 2nd and 3rd waves of free agency, when you can get decent players on the cheap (like we did with Lowery & Wilson) is where you should target need, and thus in the middle rounds just really just target really good football players that may have slipped or are unheralded that you think have a chance to excel in your scheme. I think that's going to increase your chances of hitting on those picks rather than targeting a 5th round talent in the 3rd round because you failed to address it properly earlier in the offseason.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2014 9:33 pm 
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New York believed that they were getting, "Peyton Manning 2.0," and we know, in hind sight, that's not really the case. Eli Manning is good, but he's considered 2nd tier by most. New York could have been a better football team if they had drafted Roethlisberger or Rivers, and used their picks on other players.


I agree with most of what you say but few 2nd tired Qbs play like this in Super Bowls and win Most Valuable player award!! This was Super Bowl #1.
If we had a Qb win us a Super Bowl he's be considered really special.
Manning had the composure to take and win N.Y. two Super Bowls.
I agree Eli is second tier but he didn't make any mistakes and played darn good to Be named MVP.

"It was over when ... Donald Miralle / Getty Images
Eli Manning threw a 13-yard, go-ahead touchdown to Plaxico Burress with 35 seconds remaining in the game, completing a 12-play, 83-yard drive in which the Giants converted three third downs. The Patriots had one-last gasp, but Tom Brady's desperation pass on fourth down fell incomplete.

Eli Manning completed 19 of 34 passes for 255 yards and two TDs, earning Super Bowl MVP honors.

Game ball
Manning led the winning drive and was well deserving of the MVP award

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:08 am 
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But didn't Ben Roethlisberger play at least as well as Manning in his two Superbowls? The general thinking is that Manning is, "the reason," that the Giants won those Superbowls. I disagree with that assessment. I feel that if put in the same situation, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or heck, even Matt Ryan could have done the same. The major difference between the Falcons, the Giants, and the Steelers... They have better overall talent. We had a great QB, a couple of great WR's, and a great TE. (for a while, we had a great DE and CB as well) Their squads were better in just about every other position on the field.

Now, let's get to how incompetent our coaching staff is. The strength of our team has been our QB and WR's. That FACT would lead me to attack opposing defenses for 60 minutes. We don't do that. We get comfortable and let teams get back in games. WHAT THE HELL ARE OUR COACHES THINKING? You've invested everything into the QB and WR's... FREAKING TURN THEM LOOSE. Nope... ball control. Control the clock. Doesn't matter that the other team scored two times in two minutes on our weak defense. Ball control is the name of the game.

I can't express how frustrating it has been to be a fan of this team with this staff. For once, we have some of the best offensive talent around, and we refuse to use it.


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:19 am 
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What would you have paid him Cyril? Or would you have let Ryan walk and start this rebuilding s***-show all over again?


Of course I wouldn't have let him walk, but (this could be wrong) I even think we paid him a year early??

I would have negotiated with him. I don't remember any negotiations?
I would have never paid him the second biggest contract.....

A team is as much about the salary cap as anything and Ryan is not close to the best in the league. I would have negotiated with him in good faith and paid him about the 5-7th highest of most Qbs.

If Ryan was not fair or insisted on being paid second best in the league then yes, I would have looked at trades, although I think Ryan would just want the best he could get; but we gave him the best & more!!

Ryan is not good enough to push the club around about money. We paid him great as a rookie, and I think he would understand a fair
price.

Blank is more interested in having a Qb he can call a franchise Qb like he did Vick for years....Blank has a history of over paying Qbs; and will always be remembered for pushing Vick in his wheelchair!!

So he overpaid Ryan..... I don't care if it was just 3 million less; this franchise needs the reputation of negotiating with players then paying them fairly. Yet we have the reputation if Blank wants you the sky's the limit. So My answer is I would have paid him fairly, not more the every Qb in the league but one; but a salary that matches his playing history over the years....very fairly!!

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:49 am 
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Robert, those Qbs are as good or better than E. Manning, but when placed in the game and the pressure; Manning delivered in those two Super Bowl wins; and were probably his best games as a pro. Especially not throwing interceptions.

Ben, Phillip, Matt R. could just be better Qbs than Eli, but in the biggest games Eli came through. Heck 5 years ago I believe Ben was a much better Qb. Ben has won two Super Bowls. My point is just that Manning went to two Super Bowls and
won and I thought he played over his head for the "pressure of a Super Bowl"and to go back to our original thread---They got him in a trade.


i'm not saying Eli Manning is the only Qb to play good in a Super Bowl
I'm just saying he was a Qb who won two of them. Ryan and many others don't play their best it seems under pressure!! E. Manning just
won two Super Bowls with NY. and was praised for his play.... Maybe the other Qbs would have done that too, heck I mean the Giants could have had other Qbs and won, but they had E.Manning. That's how the thread began, trading for a Qb.

I'm not saying Manning is a good Qb I'm just saying N.Y.traded for him and he won two Super Bowls.

You can't really bring our sorry staff into this; Thomas D. is stinking it up
pretty well himself; much less our line coaches!!

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:57 am 
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Yeah, I've been a bit all over the place in this thread. The main point is that trading up to get one of the top picks in the draft rarely works out. I don't think that it's ever generated a Superbowl except for in the case of getting a QB.

Frankly, the proof is in the pudding... There have been quite a few trades into the top 5, and only one example (where both teams were in the top 5) has shown that it generated a Superbowl win. (And I'm not even sure that trade was necessary given that the top three QBs from that draft have all had very good careers)


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 11:04 am 
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Cyril wrote:
I would have negotiated with him. I don't remember any negotiations?

Negotiations lasted six months. That's why Ryan signed in July and not February or March.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 11:41 am 
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How many top 5 QBs not named Manning ended up being undeniably great QBs in the NFL?

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:11 pm 
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backnblack wrote:
How many top 5 QBs not named Manning ended up being undeniably great QBs in the NFL?

In the current generation? Brees, Brady, and Rodgers were not.

It also depends on how you define greatness... Drew Bledsoe, Donovan McNabb, Terry Bradshaw, and John Elway were all top 5 picks.


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:50 pm 
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Quote:
Of course I wouldn't have let him walk, but (this could be wrong) I even think we paid him a year early??

I would have negotiated with him. I don't remember any negotiations?
I would have never paid him the second biggest contract.....


So what would you have paid him? You haven't answered it. Ryan is young and has won the 2nd most games out of any QB in the league since he came in. The bottom line is if you wanted to keep him, you were going to have to pay him. And FYI - I don not believe he has the 2nd highest salary. Cutler, Manning, Romo I think are all above him just off the top of my head. Gotta think Rogers abd Brees are up there too.

He has not played well in the playoffs, but the team as a while (coaching staff included) have all laid eggs in the playoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 1:57 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
backnblack wrote:
How many top 5 QBs not named Manning ended up being undeniably great QBs in the NFL?

In the current generation? Brees, Brady, and Rodgers were not.

It also depends on how you define greatness... Drew Bledsoe, Donovan McNabb, Terry Bradshaw, and John Elway were all top 5 picks.

I'd say 3 of those 4 were pretty great. That's a pretty broad span of time...close to 2 generations? 40 years or so? Think Marino was a high pick also. There are probably some others but it seems few really pan out to be "great" and fewer still win much less play in SBs. For Eli to have won 2 is not insignificant and to say he was not a HUGE part of them getting there and winning is forgetting those games--both of which were won on definitive clutch last gasp drives--and games such as the NFC Championship game in Green Bay.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 10:26 pm 
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No doubt. But Roethlisberger was just as important to his team's Superbowl wins. Rivers has been just as important to his team, though his team has come up short. I would say that Ryan has been equally instrumental in the Falcons' success. If not for a Harry Douglas fall, Roddy White getting molested, and a defense that couldn't stop my grandma, we'd be talking about how Ryan is a great QB.

But yes, you're correct... Drafting a, "hall of fame," anything is a crap shoot, whether it's in the top 5, or anywhere else in the draft. And FYI, Marino, 27th overall. Joe Montana, 3rd rounder. Tom Brady, 6th round. Drew Brees, 2nd round. Hall of fame talent is nearly impossible to predict.


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 11:56 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
No doubt. But Roethlisberger was just as important to his team's Superbowl wins. Rivers has been just as important to his team, though his team has come up short. I would say that Ryan has been equally instrumental in the Falcons' success. If not for a Harry Douglas fall, Roddy White getting molested, and a defense that couldn't stop my grandma, we'd be talking about how Ryan is a great QB.

But yes, you're correct... Drafting a, "hall of fame," anything is a crap shoot, whether it's in the top 5, or anywhere else in the draft. And FYI, Marino, 27th overall. Joe Montana, 3rd rounder. Tom Brady, 6th round. Drew Brees, 2nd round. Hall of fame talent is nearly impossible to predict.

For some reason I had it in my mind Marino was a #1. Now where is this Google thing everybody keep stalking about? Wasn't Aikman a very high pick? Phillip Rivers is the most over rated QB in the league.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 3:50 am 
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Actually, yes, Aikman was a #1. Don't know how I missed him.

Check these links out:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/alltimeno1 - all of the #1 picks (including years played, and pro bowls)

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/alltimeno2 - all of the #2 picks


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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 10:39 am 
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Had the Falcons been smart and signed Ryan after 2011, they would have saved money.

But of course, then he hadn't (yet) proven he could win a playoff game. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 5:41 pm 
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I did say what I would have paid him!!


A team is as much about the salary cap as anything and Ryan is not close to the best in the league. "I would have negotiated with him in good faith, & paid him about the 5-7th highest of most Qbs. "

And yes after his signing he was the second higest paid Qb.

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Last edited by Cyril on Fri May 02, 2014 9:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Bill Poulian's viewpoint
PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 7:49 pm 
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MR is--according to an article I recently read--one of the top 25 best paid athletes in the world. That's pretty absurd to me.

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