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It doesn't matter whom you want: You have guy 2.

Bringing in a new OC means that he'll definitely get past his rookie contract, and the next will last at least five more years.

Thinking that the best chance to convert a 4th down is a QB sneak with him is another story, and hopefully that part of the equation changes with someone whose last name isn't actually synonymous with "bullshit" and a better OL.

Well, I immediately recognize who Guy #2 is from his numbers (yeah, I'm good like that )

And because of that I can't really give an unbiased answer. To answer the "going forward" despite this, I really can't pick one or the other. I could say which of the two's first 4 years I would rather have, but honestly looking at their production in Years 3 and 4 they look pretty much the same in my eyes.

But if you were going to force me to pick one, I'd probably chose Guy #1 just because his vertical passing seems a bit better.

You're better with numbers than that; I'd be surprised if everyone didn't. That said, doesn't #2 have the better vertical game? He's got better 20s and 40s, a better YPA, better TD-INT, a better . . .. Why #1?

I'd take guy 1. He made a very big leap in year 3, establishing a 30 TD/10 INT, 65% 8 ypa level. He came down a little in year 4, but unless there were big anomalies with year 3, I'd expect that's the level this QB is going to hover around...basically 30 TD/10-15INT, 65+% completion rate, 7.5+ypa. That would be my expectation and that's good.

The 2nd guy (who we recognize) didn't start out as low, but didn't have a "jump." It seems his established level is 61% completions, 22-25TDs, 10-15 INTs, and a 6.5-7.5 ypa. His last year has a bit of a jump in YPA, but it was just a single year, so it's hard to tell if it will stay. If that guy stays in the same system, you can expect 24 TDs, 13 INTs, 61% complete, and 6.8ypa, I'd say.

So, I don't know who the first guy is, but I'd go with him.

However, the 2nd is still solid, but really needs to improve by 5% on completion percentage and from a 6.8 type of ypa guy to a 7.5 type guy. I think both can happen with a spread type offense with multiple receiving options.

So let me get this straight... Guy 1 has a big year in his 3rd year and then drops off again in the 4th year, but he's going to be more like that 3rd year from now on... but Guy 2 has a good 4th year and it's an anomaly? You guys crack me up.

Guy 1 was cut from his team for his drop off in year 4.

Can I be the jackass and ask who in the world is guy one?

Robert, reread my post.

Guy 1 (I'm guessing Brees) dropped in year 4, but still maintained that 65+ percent completion, 7+ypa type positioning. So, he had established a new platform (since it wasn't just 1 yr) that was 65, 7+, 30 TDs. INTs tend to fluctuate more than the other stats year to year, so on the consistent measures, he had reached a new platform, and there's no reason to think he will be below a 65 percent thrower or below a 7.2-7.8 ypa guy going forward.

Guy 2 only has one year above 7 ypa in his last 3, and is consistently around 60% completions. His "base" looks to be lower.

Yes, he started out of the gates stronger, but he hasn't made a leap. It's not to say he can't, just that by the stats I'd definitely take guy 1. Looks like the classic guy who took a couple of years to figure out the league and then hit a high level.

I'd take guy number 2, more yards and TD's. The other stats are a wash....

You're not factoring in attempts. Guy #1 (Brees now that I've looked it up) has 86 20+ yard plays in 900 attempts, while Guy #2 (Ryan) has 87 in 1137. Based off the percentages (and percentages are really all that matter with QBs), over the course of a "normalized" 550-attempt season, Guy #1 would have about 10 more 20+ yard plays than Guy #2. Obviously, that difference could be between having Mike Wallace as your #2 instead of Andre Roberts, but since I'm assuming we're supposed to be judging in a vacuum, not going to assume that.


The drop-off that Guy #1 (Brees) had in Year 4 is really inconsequential. His drop-off is the normal amount of drop-off that can be expected in a given year. You have to remember that his INT%, TD%, YPA are well above average. The whole "regress to the mean" is the likeliest culprit rather than he started to suck. The fact is any time someone has an INT% below 3%, TD% above 5.5%, and a YPA around 8+, those aren't "normal" numbers.

And Guy #1 didn't get cut because of his drop-off. He got cut because his team stupidly drafting another QB #1 after Year 2 (due to that drop-off from Year 1), and because he injured his shoulder and the fear that he would be the new Chad Pennington (2nd shoulder injury in 2 yrs.). It was the perfect opportunity (in their eyes) to move on.

That's one thing people don't quite understand. Production fluctuates from year to year. Just look at Brett Favre's career stats to see normal fluctuation: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... vrBr00.htm

The myth out there is that Guy #2's numbers went up because of one high profile rookie WR, but the reality is potentially that his numbers would have seen a similar increase if not simply for a change in play-calling. And the forgotten factor is that Guy #2's numbers only really changed in one area (YPA). And what evidence do I have to back up this asinine notion? Just look at Guy #2's numbers when his high profile rookie WR was out of the lineup:

82 for 133 (61.7%) for 988 yards (7.43 YPA), 5 TDs, 5 INTs

Obviously, from the TDs, this high profile rookie had some impact, but not nearly as much as many might claim.

Yes, guy #1 is Brees. Guy #2 is Ryan. Their stats are incredibly similar for the first 4 years. Ryan will get a coaching change next year, possibly a scheme change. Perhaps we'll finally see Ryan start to emerge the way that Brees emerged under Payton.

That's exactly what I hope to see Robert. I don't think he'll ever be quite the same, simply because he doesn't have the mobility or quite the accuracy. However, personally, I think Ryan can look a lot more like Brees/Brady than he looks like a midtier QB if he's in a system with a lot of options and he gets to identify the mismatch.

I wasn't trying to pick against Ryan in the exercise...I just actually look for guys hitting new platforms or new levels when I look at stats. So, I'd take the guy who had fairly clearly ascended to the next level.

I never can get a full bead on Ryan, but I think he can be a lot better with the right system, and, frankly, we need to go to that system anyway. If you get all the WR talent, OL talent, versatile TEs and RBs, and then you see your QB can't do it...you've still set up your team to be only a QB away. It's not like it's ever helpful to give your offense fewer weapons and less versatility.

I'd love to have the New Orleans or New England coaching staff for our offense for a couple of years and see what happens.

Lies, damn lies and statistics. Let's look at the psychological aspect. Brees gets canned and has played with a chip on his shoulder...maybe even before this. Ryan knows--above all else--to keep the brass happy and be a system guy as the anointed franchise savior. Do I think he holds himself to high personal and internal standards? Yes. But he's no gangster or under dog and I think Brees has a little of that in him. There are so many factors to consider when comparing apples and oranges.

Statistics can be used to tell any story that you want to tell. But in this case, I'm not trying to tell a story, I'm simply presenting the statistics. If you want a story, these statistics tell us that Matt Ryan is a freaking rock of stability. He throws lots of TDs, few Ints, and can do it whether you ask him to throw a small number of times, or a lot of times. Knowing more than the statistics show, it seems like a coaching/scheme change is in his best interests at this point in time. We know what he can do with one scheme, let's see what he does with another.

I don't need stats to tell me Ryan is the boy scout who will always say "yes sir"

Breeze on the other hand cusses out receivers who don't run the right routes, likewise
to linemen who don't block. Breeze also hits the receiver 40 yards deep, works as hard as
anyone, and I'm sure gives Sean Payton his feedback on game plans and everything else.....

Now those are the intangibles we wish our Qb had!!

Was Brees doing those things in San Diego?

Interesting post Robert. Brees took a huge leap in his 3rd season and made the Pro Bowl for the first time that year. I remember being very surprised when SD took Rivers when they already had Brees. But his shoulder injury from the last game of his 4th season and subsequent surgery before the draft that year might have loomed large in the Chargers' decision making.

How about Guy 3?