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 Post subject: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:58 pm 
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I looked at the OL production from this year's Moneyball and last year. And then I took the combined stats of just the O-line and normalized them over 500 rushing plays, and 500 passing plays, and here are what the numbers would be:

Key Blocks

2010 - 69.9
2011 - 71.7

Missed Blocks

2010 - 58.4
2011 - 84.4

Sacks Allowed

2010 - 17.5
2011 - 16.9

Pressures Allowed

2010 - 23.3
2011 - 48.8


Here are the raw stats for consideration:

2010
1097 total plays, 497 rushing, 600 passing
69.5 key blocks, 21 sacks allowed, 58 missed blocks, 28 pressures allowed

2011
1073 total plays, 453 rushing, 620 passing
65 key blocks, 21 sacks allowed, 76.5 missed blocks, 60.5 pressures allowed

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 4:34 am 
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Now how can we compare last year's 28 pressure's to this year's 68.5??

That's at least 3 linemen not getting the job done!! Sam Baker, Reynolds & his replacement; and even Claybo!!
I guess some could change the order but we need 2 free agents in the off season.... This off season is for linemen!!

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:39 pm 
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More interesting stats. These totals are normalized over 500 run blocking snaps and 600 pass blocking snaps and rounded to the nearest half.

LEFT TACKLE

Sam Baker (2010) - 7.5 key blocks, 11.5 missed blocks, 7.0 sacks allowed, 7.5 pressures allowed
Will Svitek (2011) - 10 key blocks, 10.5 missed blocks, 3.0 sacks allowed, 14 pressures allowed
Sam Baker (2011) - 6.5 key blocks, 18 missed blocks, 6.0 sacks allowed, 23.5 pressures allowed

LEFT GUARD

Justin Blalock (2010) - 16.5 key blocks, 13 missed blocks, 2 sacks allowed, 4 pressures allowed
Justin Blalock (2011) - 18 key blocks, 20.5 missed blocks, 1 sack allowed, 7.5 pressures allowed

Justin Blalock (2011 w/Svitek) - 16 key blocks, 26 missed blocks, 0 sacks allowed, 6.5 pressures allowed
Justin Blalock (2011 w/Baker) - 23 key blocks, 10 missed blocks, 3.5 sacks allowed, 9.5 pressures allowed

CENTER

Todd McClure (2010) - 10 key blocks, 10.5 missed blocks, 0.5 sacks allowed, 3.5 pressures allowed
Todd McClure (2011) - 10 key blocks, 14 missed blocks, 0.5 sacks allowed, 2.5 pressures allowed
Joe Hawley (2011) - 21.5 key blocks, 21.5 missed blocks, 4 sacks allowed, 0 pressures allowed

RIGHT GUARD

Harvey Dahl (2010) - 14.5 key blocks, 9.5 missed blocks, 2 sacks allowed, 6.5 pressures allowed
Garrett Reynolds (2011) - 18.5 key blocks, 17.5 missed blocks, 7 sacks allowed, 14 pressures allowed
Joe Hawley (2011) - 13 key blocks, 17 missed blocks, 6 sacks allowed, 9 pressures allowed

RIGHT TACKLE

Tyson Clabo (2010) - 15.5 key blocks, 10 missed blocks, 3 sacks allowed, 2 pressures allowed
Tyson Clabo (2011) - 14.5 key blocks, 13 missed blocks, 3.5 sacks allowed, 11.5 pressures allowed

Tyson Clabo (2011 w/Reynolds) - 17.5 key blocks, 18.5 missed blocks, 9 sacks allowed, 12 pressures allowed
Tyson Clabo (2011 w/Hawley) - 14 key blocks, 10 missed blocks, 0 sacks allowed, 12 pressures allowed


Once again, here are the raw stats from both 2010 and 2011:

2010

Baker: 8 key blocks, 12 missed blocks, 8 sacks allowed, 9 pressures allowed
Blalock: 17 key blocks, 13.5 missed blocks, 2.5 sacks allowed, 5 pressures allowed
McClure: 10 key blocks, 10.5 missed blocks, 0.5 sacks allowed, 4 pressures allowed
Dahl: 15 key blocks, 10 missed blocks, 2.5 sacks allowed, 7.5 pressures allowed
Clabo: 16 key blocks, 10 missed blocks, 3.5 sacks allowed, 2.5 pressures allowed

2011

Svitek (793 total snaps): 6.5 key blocks, 7 missed blocks, 2.5 sacks allowed, 11 pressures allowed
Baker (408 total snaps at LT): 2 key blocks, 5.5 missed blocks, 2.5 sacks allowed, 10 pressures allowed
Blalock (1212 total snaps): 17.5 key blocks, 20 missed blocks, 1.5 sacks allowed, 9 pressures allowed
McClure (944 total snaps): 7.5 key blocks, 10.5 missed blocks, 0.5 sacks allowed, 2.5 pressures allowed
Hawley (230 total snaps at C): 3.5 key blocks, 3.5 missed blocks, 1 sack allowed, 0 pressures allowed
Hawley (671 total snaps at RG): 7 key blocks, 9 missed blocks, 4 sacks allowe,d 6 pressures allowed
Reynolds (488 total snaps at RG): 7 key blocks, 6.5 missed blocks, 3.5 sacks allowed, 7 pressures allowed
Clabo (1212 total snaps): 14 key blocks, 12.5 missed blocks, 4.5 sacks allowed, 14 pressures allowed

Blalock w/ Baker (408 snaps): 7 key blocks, 3 missed blocks, 1.5 sacks allowed, 4 pressures allowed
Blalock w/ Svitek (793 snaps): 10.5 key blocks, 17 missed blocks, 0 sacks allowed, 5 pressures allowed

Clabo w/ Reynolds (488 snaps): 6.5 key blocks, 7 missed blocks, 4.5 sacks allowed, 6 pressures allowed
Clabo w/ Hawley (671 snaps): 7.5 key blocks, 5.5 missed blocks, 0 sacks allowed, 8 pressures allowed

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 4:41 pm 
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It would be very helpful to have percentages as opposed to raw stats. Key block every x% of snaps. Missed block every x% of snaps. I'd do it, but I have other work to do today.


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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:37 pm 
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Thus why I provided the stats normalized over 500 rushing snaps/600 passing snaps.

If I simply gave you the percentages, that Will Svitek missed a block on 2.1% of his run blocking snaps, and Sam Baker missed one on 3.6% of his, you have no real context on what the difference is. But if that's normalized over 500 snaps, that would mean Svitek would miss 10.7 blocks (rounded to 10.5), while Baker would miss 18.2 (rounded to 18.0). The difference of 7.5 blocks missed is much more concrete and easier to grasp than 1.5%.

I can say this QB had a TD% of 5%, while another had one of 3.5%, and a lot of people will be able to easily determine that a TD% of 5 is good, while 3.5% is fairly average. We are used to such percentages for QBs, and understand a very basic understanding of what is good and what is not, even in the smaller margins.

But who knows what is a good percentage for blockers?

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:52 am 
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Pudge that's good work!!

I still think letting Dahl go was a horrible move!! He was the line's identity, and someone the coaches
could at least use to watch others; and ask (is he half as mean as Dahl)

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:41 pm 
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I agree Cyril. I think the stats clearly show that the right side of our line was a strength. And by letting Dahl go, they made that area into a weakness. The left side was already a weakness, and the smarter move would have been to be more willing to disrupt the continuity there because it was already weak.

We lost our bread and butter, because now we had both sides of our line being weak, rather than having one side be a strength. So in many of those must-run situations, the Falcons struggled to push the pile. Evidenced by their inability to be effective on QB sneaks. But also evidenced by the fact that Turner's YPC dropped 0.6 yards on 1st down runs from 2010 to 2011 (4.3 to 3.7).

People that suggest Dahl wasn't a big loss are only examining him as an individual, but not factoring in that the O-line is a unit. And that unit playing its best football typically coincided when Dahl had his best games.

There were 2 blockers on this team in 2009 and 2010 that when they typically graded well as blockers, the Falcons typically had a dominant day on the ground. And those two players were Ovie Mughelli and Harvey Dahl. Dahl obviously wasn't on the team, and Ovie wasn't himself for the brief time he was on the team. But they were what you could label "impact" blockers. And while Blalock & Clabo were solid blockers, they weren't the type of players that made this offense "go."

And it really is a joke when you look at the contracts each of them signed.

Dahl signed a four-year deal worth $16 million. He received an initial roster bonus of $3M with a $1M base salary in 2011. His base salary jumps to $3M this year, and will also get a $1M roster bonus. Next year, his base is $4M. Meaning, that in 3 years, Dahl will make $12M, with only about $4M of it guaranteed.

Blalock signed a 6-yr. deal worth $38 million, with $16 million guaranteed. I don't know what Blalock's base salary was in Year 1, but based off the contract info I could drum up $15.6M of his contract was paid to him that year in bonus + salary. In 2012, his base is $2.5M, and $4.5M in 2013. Meaning that in the first 3 years, Blalock will make $22.6M.

Bad front office, bad!

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:56 pm 
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Then you couple that with the contract they gave Stephen Nicholas...

5-yrs. $17 million, with $6M guaranteed. Really TD? Your first move of the off-season was bringing back Nicholas, when you could have easily plugged Mike Peterson, Akeem Dent or any mid-level starter into place, and for almost the exact price it would have cost to keep your lone impact O-lineman?

Oh and before you say so, AJ51, it's not quite hindsight: http://falcfans.com/dahl-vs-blalock-who ... #more-4065 :wink:

Where hindsight comes into play is the drop-off we saw. I don't think anybody expected that big a drop-off up front from 2010 to 2011. But the Falcons made that bed, and they were forced to lie in it. What makes things worse though, is how little effort the Falcons brass put into trying to upgrade the unit.

They never really looked into making any changes, or bringing in outside help. They worked out 4 O-linemen at the end of October: Kirk Chambers, Kyle Jolly, Kenny Wiggins, and Dennis Landolt. What precipitated those moves was the injury to Johnson, not the poor play by the front five for the first several weeks of the year.

Did they sniff at Max Starks, Jared Gaither, Leonard Davis, Shawn Andrews, Alex Barron, Flozell Adams, Nick Kaczur, Vince Manuwai, or Chester Pitts? Nope.

That word complacency gets thrown around quite a bit...

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:15 pm 
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Quote:
Bad front office, bad!


Yeah yesterday I had an Eagles fan ask me how we looked for next year, I told him the same or worse as this year. Simple, TD acted like we were 1 player away, and we were more like 5+. Both sides of our roster need work at nearly EVERY position. We have enough Dimitroff history at this point, to where I honestly just expect us to keep doing what we've been doing. Overpay bad FA's, underdraft, meaning not enough hits on early picks, then next to no diamonds or gems late. Certainly no Victor Cruz's. Its pretty clear he thought he could expand/tweak the Patriots model, and he basically threw it in the trashcan. Thats led us into being an annual mediocre to good team, but one that will never win a SB based on what we've seen thus far.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 9:41 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
I agree Cyril. I think the stats clearly show that the right side of our line was a strength. And by letting Dahl go, they made that area into a weakness. The left side was already a weakness, and the smarter move would have been to be more willing to disrupt the continuity there because it was already weak.

We lost our bread and butter, because now we had both sides of our line being weak, rather than having one side be a strength. So in many of those must-run situations, the Falcons struggled to push the pile. Evidenced by their inability to be effective on QB sneaks. But also evidenced by the fact that Turner's YPC dropped 0.6 yards on 1st down runs from 2010 to 2011 (4.3 to 3.7).

People that suggest Dahl wasn't a big loss are only examining him as an individual, but not factoring in that the O-line is a unit. And that unit playing its best football typically coincided when Dahl had his best games.

There were 2 blockers on this team in 2009 and 2010 that when they typically graded well as blockers, the Falcons typically had a dominant day on the ground. And those two players were Ovie Mughelli and Harvey Dahl. Dahl obviously wasn't on the team, and Ovie wasn't himself for the brief time he was on the team. But they were what you could label "impact" blockers. And while Blalock & Clabo were solid blockers, they weren't the type of players that made this offense "go."

And it really is a joke when you look at the contracts each of them signed.

Dahl signed a four-year deal worth $16 million. He received an initial roster bonus of $3M with a $1M base salary in 2011. His base salary jumps to $3M this year, and will also get a $1M roster bonus. Next year, his base is $4M. Meaning, that in 3 years, Dahl will make $12M, with only about $4M of it guaranteed.

Blalock signed a 6-yr. deal worth $38 million, with $16 million guaranteed. I don't know what Blalock's base salary was in Year 1, but based off the contract info I could drum up $15.6M of his contract was paid to him that year in bonus + salary. In 2012, his base is $2.5M, and $4.5M in 2013. Meaning that in the first 3 years, Blalock will make $22.6M.

Bad front office, bad!


Pudge, good work!!!! That said, I'm glad you've got off the "Dahl being a liability because of his penalties". Bad front office move that made Peter King look like a jerk.

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 Post subject: Re: Interesting OL stats
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:16 pm 
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Dahl got a bad rap for penalties because many of them would come at very inopportune times (like a false start or hold when the Falcons were driving in the redzone), but he never really was that much more prone to penalties than anybody else on the line. Baker was actually penalized more IIRC.

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