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http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/ ... -worth-it/

The final bill for Julio Jones is about to come due, and already the Falcons have paid a heavy cost. Not only did they send five draft picks — last year’s Round 1 (27th overall), Round 2 (59th overall) and Round 4 (124th overall) selections, plus this year’s Round 1 (22nd overall) and Round 4 (118th overall) — to Cleveland for the right to move up and grab one wide receiver, but they have been pilloried in every corner for their flight of fancy.

(Well, not every corner. I still think it was a reasoned move to take a specific player of vast potential, but I’ll get into that soon.)

After the Falcons lost to the Giants 24-2 on a day in the Meadowlands when the offense didn’t scratch, Kerry J. Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts laid the defeat at the feet of the Julio trade. (Not entirely sure how three rookies — only one of them who’d have been even a first-rounder, and that one only the 27th pick — would have overridden a 22-point deficit, but never mind.) Here was Byrne, writing for SI.com:


If you’re new to the Mighty CHFF, this Man Law tells us that wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams. They look all nice and flashy and they cause fans to “ooh” and “ahh.” But they don’t make the engine run any better.

And a bit more:


We knew it was a bad move the moment it happened, especially for a team that went 13-3 the year before but failed to win a single playoff game because of problems that were exposed so badly by the Packers. In fact, we issued Atlanta a D- in our Sports Illustrated draft grades. So we’re not engaging in a little revisionist history. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law told us it was an impending disaster the second the deal unfolded.

It’s not as if Byrne was the Lone Ranger on this. Raging consensus holds that the Falcons messed up last year’s draft and also this one, and it’s true Round 1 of 2012 — to be held next Thursday — doesn’t hold the same interest for us around here. When your NFL franchise lacks a first-round pick, all those mock drafts lose their shine. (They have the 55th overall pick, and then the 84th, and then not another until Round 5.)

But I’m wondering. We in these parts saw a lot of Julio Jones when he played for Alabama, and we had a good long look at him last season (when he wasn’t hurt). Having seen the talent, if not yet any transforming effect on the Falcons as a team, would have you made the move? Or would you have stayed at No. 27 overall last season, kept this year’s Round 1 pick and taken no risk at all?

I’ll hang up and wait for your answers. (Oh, and there’s a poll, if you’re inclined.) I’m intrigued as to what you might say because, as noted, I’m planning a longer look at the Julio trade in a bit.

Of course, Pudge is going to say, "Oh hell yes it was worth it!" but other than that I think we've probably discussed this once or twice before.

interestingly, the ajc poll on this is pretty evenly split three ways
yes
no
we havent seen yet

As I've said once or twice before, if Jones does indeed have a "transforming" effect on the Falcons offense and obviously for the better, then the trade will be worth it. But we haven't seen that yet. And the people that keep saying we have, couldn't be more further from the truth. If you want to see an example of what a WR having a transforming effect on an offense, a good example is look at the Giants offense with Victor Cruz in 2011 vs. their offense without him in 2010.

Eli Manning 2010 passer rating - 85.3 (17th best in NFL)
Eli Manning 2011 passer rating - 92.9 (7th best)

Eli Manning 2010 DVOA - 11.0% (20th best)
Eli Manning 2011 DVOA - 23.2% (8th best)

Steve Smith 2010 DVOA - 1.9% (46th best)
Victor Cruz 2011 DVOA - 33.3% (6th best)

Giants Pass Play Percentage 2010 - 53.6% (26th most)
Giants Pass Play Percentage 2011 - 60.0% (9th most)

Matt Ryan 2010 passer rating - 91.1 (11th best)
Matt Ryan 2011 passer rating - 92.2 (8th best)

Matt Ryan 2010 DVOA - 23.9% (7th best)
Matt Ryan 2011 DVOA - 24.6% (7th best)

Michael Jenkins 2010 DVOA - 5.8% (35th best)
Julio Jones 2011 DVOA - 10.6% (32nd best)

Falcons Pass Play Percentage 2010 - 54.7% (24th most)
Falcons Pass Play Percentage 2011 - 57.8% (16th most)

I do not see why you guys say we gave up 5 draft picks for Jones. We did not lose a first round pick last year. We swapped our first round pick for Cleveland's. That does not constitute losing the pick. So we actually only gave up 4 picks to get Julio. Was it worth it? If he develops into the elite receiver we are hoping for, then I say it was absolutely worth it.

How about we vote for the "ask this question in 3 years, when we actually have data to analyze, rather than the small sample size of one offseason-shrotened year?

I agree Yulin, there won't be a definitive answer until a few years down the line. I just think that given what we've seen so far, the answer is no. And I don't think the Falcons have the structure in place so that the answer will be any different after this year.

For the record, I think Jones will be a significantly improved player/contributor this year. Instead of showing up for 5 or so games, he could potentially show up for 11 or 12. But even then, I think the Falcons still might only be scratching the surface for his full potential. And that's a potential I don't think he'll really be able to reach until Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez are off the team. And that has nothing to do with Jones, and everything to do with the short-sightedness of the Falcons coaching staff.

But then again, maybe Dirk Koetter is indeed an offensive genius, and the Jags lack of offensive talent was indeed holding him back. It's not a notion I'd personally wager on, but it's about the only hope I have that the Falcons will dramatically exceed my expectations this year.

Yes it will prove to be worth it 10 times over!!

Dick Koetter will be proven to be a genius.....

Look as much grief as this board has given Mike Mularkey lets remember their is a Franchise that could have picked a lot of coaches to lead them; but Jacksonville chose Mularkey. The point being to me is that Mike Smith made a wise choice on his
first O-Coordinator....that lead to a pretty darn good run; starting with a rookie Qb to a 4 year veteran. Mularkey is the best
O-Coordinator the falcons have ever had!!

I give Smith the Benefit of being right the first time; to picking the perfect coach for this next four years of Matt Ryan and
the Atlanta Falcons.

Yes, it was worth it...

Before you put too much stock in the Jags hiring Mularkey, you should note Cyril that when you look at the past say 10-15 years of the league, and whenever new ownership takes over a team, they almost always within a few years hire a new head coach. It's not a high success rate.

Vikings (Brad Childress)
Falcons (Jim Mora)
Jets (Herm Edwards)
Redskins (Marty Schottenheimer)
Seahawks (Mike Holmgren)
Texans (Dom Capers)
Browns (Romeo Crennel)
Ravens (John Harbaugh)

2 out of 8? Interestingly enough, 4 teams with relatively new owners hired their first head coaches under their watch this off-season: Dolphins, Rams, Raiders, and Jaguars. We'll see what they look like 5 years from now...Odds are 1 will work out. I wouldn't put my money on Jacksonville.

Glass still half empty huh (:

Mularkey is a head coach because Mike Smith gave him a chance.

The Mularkey family will be able to enjoy some new money for a while; and this gives Mularkey another chance!!

That's all you get in the Nfl is a chance. I don't give a care how Mularkey does; but all the nonsense you wrote
doesn't get anyone else the job!! Mularkey is getting another chance; and a rather big deal if your Mularkey!!