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Got them from SI.com, on each player's passing splits:

Brees: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footba ... plits.html
Ryan: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footba ... plits.html
Flacco: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footba ... plits.html

You can find that information on most sites' split stats, since it's STATS LLC that works for most of them (ESPN relies on Elias Sports Bureau). But SI is unique in that they include 1st downs. I don't know of any others that include that. Unfortunately, they only break down the most recent year. For whatever reason, NFL.com has 1st downs and 20+ yard plays, but doesn't include down and distance on their splits, and Yahoo! does have down and distance but doesn't include 1st downs, although at least it goes back several years.

Thanks. Yeah, I normally use ESPN splits (better than NFL.com splits), but they don't have 1st down %. I wanted to compare this year to 2008 for Ryan, when he did much better, but I guess nowhere has the 2008 1st down numbers. It's easy to assume with avg/attempt and avg/catch that he was very effective in that year...just would like the apples to apples.

First, the occasions where a franchise QB gets 'benched' after 4 years and 3 playoff appearances are non existant. Sure there are very few 'exceptions' but Ryan will be here whether or not Smith will.

I second Cyril's postulation that at this point ( and last season ) Ryan has earned the right to conference with his coaches and coordinators to better his game. I fail to see how he supposedly watches film of all the better QB's, but doesn't see where his weaknesses are. For 2 offseasons weve heard about Matt bulking up and how he is going to get this part of his game 'fixed'. If Ryan doesn't trust his receivers to go up and make a play, some of that is on Smith, but more is on Ryan. Now, we are reading how he is getting bigger. Doesn't matter if Ryan doesn trust his WR's.

Now maybe Smitty can say 'dont worry about the INT's Matt. Let it fly' but at the end of the day MR has to actually 'do it'. And Smith has to 'say it'. I agree it's an issue and both are culpable, I just put more on Ryan. Smith may not be here next season.

You're looking at it too black and white fun gus.


You're right, and he exercises that right. I'm certainly not trying to say that Ryan is "cut out" completely. But at the end of the day, having a "conference" with the coaches isn't going to make him into a good QB. Through those conferences, Ryan isn't going to fabricate and build an offensive structure that is going to maximize his abilities. If the coaches are incapable of coming up with gameplans that maximize Ryan's skill, then Ryan isn't going to make up the difference simply by flexing his muscles more in the weekly meetings and film viewings.


But if Mike Smith doesn't say it first, then why would you expect Matt Ryan to do it? Because of some completely fictional notion that other great QBs (like Brees) were able to do it without their coaches saying it first.

Even if you think that 70% of it is on Ryan's shoulders, and the other 30% is on Smitty and the coaches, the point is that the 30% has to come first. It doesn't work otherwise. So while Smith may represent a smaller piece of the whole, he still represents the most critical point of it.

QBs don't move coaches, there isn't an example of that. Payton didn't make Brees the natural talent that he is. He's always been that natural talent. But what people don't quite seem to acknowledge or grasp is that Payton's scheme allows that natural talent to flourish. Basically, Payton is the guy tending the garden, watering, aerating the soil, etc. He can't make Brees (the plant) grow, but he can foster and nurture that growth.

That isn't happening in Atlanta. It's not to say they are neglecting his growth completely, but there is no QB that plays great consistently that doesn't have coaches cultivate that greatness.

It's a battle of who can get in the last word!

I'll agree they don't normally get benched.

My point, which I'd think you'd agree with, is the QB is expected to play within the system. And if the coaches preach that their whole system is based on not making mistakes, being consistent, and capitalizing on other team's mistakes (which is their system) then we know where the coaches fall out on how to throw the deep ball. And throwing it "up in play" which is DEFINITELY what I think should occur, is almost certainly exactly opposite of what the coaches preach.

I'd imagine that conversation would go a bit like follows:

Mularkey/Smith: So, Matt, we're going to try to open the game up a little in this one. We think the we can get single coverage on the outside and our guys can get open. Obviously, if they're not open, throw it away, and the key here is to not let our "shot taking" turn into a big play for the other team.

Ryan: Coach, I've noticed in a lot of film work that even if the deep receiver isn't open, Brees, Eli, etc. will throw it up and let their WR make a play, since the WR has better positioning. I really think Julio and Roddy can do that.

Coach: They have a different system, Matty, and a completely different way of winning. We're going to rely on our strong ground game, and we're going to capitalize on other team's mistakes. We're not in the business of making life easier for the other teams by giving them easy turnovers. Put the ball where our guy can catch it or no one can.


Now, does this seem like exactly the responses the coach would give? If so, a lot is on the coaches. Now, what I don't know is whether Ryan even brings up the question, because he knows the system, knows what the coaches rely on to win, etc. But I can't imagine, even if he brings it up as above, that the response isn't what I laid out above.

I agree they need to throw the deep ball up. More importantly, they need to have more recievers out, and taller guys in the middle of the field. They need to design an attacking offense. But, in the meantime, Ryan needs to at least put the ball in play. But the coaches need to be ok with that...and, in fact, need to tell him to. If the coaches say "hey, we're moving away from a zero mistake mentality to a 'we're going to take it to them and we can overcome a mistake' mentality, and so you need to put those deep balls in play...we're leaving too many plays out there," and then Ryan checks down, it's a Ryan problem. But it should be a coaches issue. Plain and simple...you watch the tape, you see all the deep balls missed, and you say QB1, take a bit off those deep balls...I'd rather Julio and Roddy have a chance at them than them just be out of play. Bam, problem solved. That's how it should go down, instead of Ryan having to be mutinous or stage a coup to get it to occur.

As an analog, look at our defense this year. The defense they're implementing is getting away from mistake free, make them march the ball all the way down the field. It's going toward more attacking. It will lead to more long TDs, but they think that's ok because it will also lead to more turnovers and negative plays.

The defense is responding great to it. They're all ecstatic and excited to play.

That's all I want the offense to be. And Abraham and Lofton and Decoud couldn't have done that on their own last year...it has to be the system. And when players get to attack...they like it much better and are far less likely to "mail it in." They don't feel hamstrung by their own side. The coaches control the tone, and GET AFTER THEM should be the tone.

And this is the gist of it. The Falcons will NEVER get the most out of Matt Ryan until this switch in mentality occurs. The Falcons do not respond well in adversity and while I'm sure will point fingers at Ryan for that, this is a team-wide issue which means it comes from the coaching staff more than one individual player. You look at last year's games, and when the Falcons played good teams like the Bears, Texans, Saints, and Giants, if things didn't go perfect, they had a tendency to completely fall apart. This is not the case with other championship-caliber and contending teams.

People want to think that Brees was this great talent that instilled that sort of confidence and mentality in New Orleans, but a huge part of it was Sean Payton, his approach, and his offensive scheme which is designed to get the most out of the QB whether it's Brees or Chase Daniel every week. There is a reason why backups on teams like NE and GB are considered potential starters because it's an environment and system that makes them play above their talent level.

Mike Smith needs to instill a mentality similar to this, or every year, this team is going to be left wanting at the end of it.

Just like with Eli Manning, I think in the right environment with the right team, very good things can happen with Matt Ryan here in Atlanta. And it's not to say that the Falcons have surrounded him with the wrong environment, but they haven't found the right mix. And IMO, most of that blame falls on Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff's shoulders.

But as I've said time and time again, people won't criticize them for their shortcomings because they will be compared to much lesser coaches and GMs and thus will be held to a considerably lower standard than the QB, as Cyril has clearly illustrated in some of his recent posts. IMO, the lack of criticism for the powers that be in Atlanta much more mirrors the lack of criticism towards Vick, than anything about Ryan.

"Pudge Wrote"

This one is lay-up.....its Because Mike Smith has only been a head coach 4 years!! Now with your Qb after 4 years your judgeing can
he be a BRADY, Manning, or Breeze...... I think not; but he can be as good as Eli and although I don't think Eli is a great Qb he;s
never been accused of being a pussy!!

Look I stand firm that on the long passes its on the Qbs.!! iT JUST AMAZING that you think some guy who couldn't even play Qb or
was a lousy one; is going throw words up that's gonna help Ryan. This is one of those times the qb must figure it out for himself.

Why do we have Qb coaches; well to possibly show the different formations; or even to possibly to have figured out a tendency and
when the defense is in this; then you go long. Hank Aaron 's hitting coach didn't teach Hank how to hit homers; Ricky Henderson didn't have a coach to show him how to steal basses; and Phil Jackson didn't teach Michael Jordan how to make 40-50 points in crunch time
in game 7 of the Championship...... The real great ones figure it out themselves. iTS ALWAYS BEEN TRUE AND ALWAYS WILL!!

s*** what does Mike Smith know about throwing a pass; or Shanahan; Or Bill B. You take away their star Qbs and they become average coaches!!

The horse has been beaten. No one's minds are being changed here. Have a nice day.

Mike Tomlin has been a coach for 5 years. So? Andy Reid led the Eagles to 2 NFC CHampionship games in his first 4 years as a head coach. How is the fact that he's only a 4th year coach an excuse for not making this team better able to handle adversity? How many years does he need to make this team into a championship contender? Because you can't help but think that all of these coaches I'm trying to compare Smitty to led their teams to Super Bowls within the first 3-6 years. Dan Reeves went to a Super Bowl in his 2nd year in Atlanta.

And don't construe that as me saying Smith has failed because the Falcons have not been in a Super Bowl in the past 4 years. It's me saying that this team's regression last year is not excused because he's only a 4th year coach. When does that excuse run out? 5 years? 6 years? 7 years? At what point is he not considered a novice, and expected to actually do his job?


Actually he was. People were questioning Eli going into his 4th year whether he had the leadership ability to take the Giants to a playoff win. You remember that whole dust-up with Tiki Barber? Eli's leadership ability and toughness was constantly questioned early in his career. People thought he was too passive to be the type of locker room leader that was needed in a place like New York.


Cyril, you really got this twisted. Completely apples and oranges. The strength of Hank Aaron's game was hitting HRs, Ricky Henderson was great at stealing bases, Michael Jordan was always a great scorer. You're right, those guys didn't need to be taught to do things they were naturals at doing. Matt Ryan however is not a natural at throwing the long ball. Just like Jordan wasn't a natural outside shooter when he came into the league, but he worked on it during the off-season. But the difference is that Jordan can pick up a ball, go to a gym and work on his game. Matt Ryan cannot do the same. I shouldn't need to explain this difference.

The thing you fail to understand Cyril is that the major reason why Ryan has struggled throwing the deep ball is because he's doing it wrong. He's playing it safe. And I don't think it's a coincidence that his deep ball is playing it safe and the overall philosophy of this offense gears towards playing it safe. I don't see how anybody can separate those two issues. You can disagree with me on how much one has to do with the other, but you seem to be wanting to completely dismiss this, which IMO is impossible.

And if a coach can't see that he's doing it wrong and step in and tell him how to do it right, then he's worthless as a coach. It would be much more comparable to if Ricky Henderson didn't know how to properly slide, and a coach stepping in to help him learn.

Or perhaps you think that every professional QB should be an accurate vertical passer. And if so, then so be it. But that's you just being ignorant and thinking that the world should adhere to your opinions, as opposed to actually looking at the world for what it actually is, and then forming an opinion about it.

And once again, you fail to realize that you've just compared Matt Ryan to HOF players in other sports. You've compared him to the greatest basketball player to ever live, as well as one of the 3 greatest power hitters to ever walk this Earth. And as you said the great ones figure it out, and thusly in your mind, if Matt Ryan doesn't showcase himself to be as great as those guys then something is wrong. Yet you come up with an endless amount of excuses of why Mike Smith shouldn't be held to a higher standard.

Maybe Matt Ryan will only be as good a QB as Matt Hasselbeck. Same size, similar physical traits, similar mental traits, both former Boston College quarterbacks. But if that is the case, then so be it. Because in Seattle they built a team around Hasselbeck that was able to make it to the Super Bowl and be a consistent winning team for a number of years. Between 2003 and 2007, the Seahawks won 63.5% of their games while Hasselbeck was playing, and went 4-5 in the playoffs. And if the Falcons can't pull off similar or better results, particularly in the playoffs, it's not going to because Ryan isn't good enough, it's going to be because Mike Smith isn't as good a coach as Mike Holmgren was.

Which goes back to my point, if the Falcons remain underachievers, it's not because they don't have a good enough QB, it's because they don't have a good head coach and/or front office.

You've changed a lot of what I said..... You were talking about why Mike Smith is not compared to the reputations of better
coaches; and it is because of his 4 short years as head coach. Mike Smith has turned this franchise completely around.

No I don't think every Qb will be a great vertical passer; just the successful ones in the NFL.

I realize Matt Ryan is lousy with the vertical pass. It confuses me why he hasn't worked on it till now; and if he has; he's had
two QB coaches and neither helped him.

Now your Question to when Mike Smith starts getting really criticized as the Bill Bs, or Sean Payton (opps Payton is suspended for the year) it starts now in his 5th year as does the clock start on Ryan in his 5th year.....Their use to be a saying it takes 5 years to make a Qb; but with the salary cap; and players being pushed into action quicker than they use to be; I'd say after 4 years the 5th year should be an acid test of where Ryan's going as a Qb.

I know I have used some "great ones" to make examples; but the examples are to show the player is either natural or figured something out on his own. The time right now is plenty of time for Ryan to get it; perhaps if he thinks he has a stronger arm; then he pass like he has a stronger arm. Again its not the Rocket science you make it out to be.... Ryan throws his deep passes either
straight up; or out of bounds.....

The long pass is not much different from the 20 yard passes where Ryan threads a needle. He just
needs to get it over the defender and into the hands of the receiver!! You have always argued against this but IMO he's struggled
because he didn't have confidence in his arm strength. Now maybe he'll have the confidence with his new 7 lbs of muscle if that's true
and rocket the deep pass the same way he throws his 20 yarder; just a little more higher (about 5 inches) so the receiver can catch it on the run.

That's exactly my point. Mike Smith as well as Dimitroff get passes for their shortcomings/failures because they'll always be considered the people that turned this team around single-handedly. Forgetting how much having a QB like Ryan was instrumental to that success, or a RB like Turner was. Smitty & Co. are compared against 40 years of ineptitude from the Falcons, why Matt Ryan is stacked against all of the greats not only of his own sport, but others. And that to me is clearly an unfair comparison.


I completely disagree with that notion, especially when it is applied to football and the QB position. As has been said multiple times in this thread, if you don't think that Drew Brees going from a pretty good QB in San Diego to a great/HOF one in New Orleans had a lot to do with going from Marty Schottenheimer's conservative, run-first attack to Sean Payton's aggressive, pass-first attack, then I don't know what to tell you. If you don't think Steve Young's success in San Fran vs. his lack of success in Tampa Bay had a lot to do with Bill Walsh and the west Coast offense, then what I can I say? If you don't think it's a coincidence that when the Broncos were at their most successful under Dan Reeves when Mike Shanahan was calling the plays, and if you ignore, dismiss, or say those factors are overrated, then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree because there will be no common ground on this issue. IMO, you've stated your viewpoint that the great QBs become great largely on their own. And I don't see a single scrap of evidence to support that idea/belief.


It's not rocket science, nor do I portray it as such. Matt Ryan's mantra is "If you're long, you're never wrong." And that is not conducive to being a good vertical passer. And I believe that because of this coaching staff's proclivities for conservative offense, they don't really do a good enough job to get him out of that mantra. The point is that Ryan is doing it wrong, and thus if he continues to do it wrong, I don't believe he is solely culpable for that. Do you get that? Do you understand why that is? If someone is doing something wrong, and you're in a position to stop or correct that issue, then if they continue to do that wrong thing, then you are just as culpable as they are. Up till now, Mike Smith & Co. get a pass, but from this point on, they don't get one.

To me, the core difference between the Falcons with Ryan and some other team with a better QB (such as the Saints), is that in Atlanta they stress how much you want to avoid mistakes. It's the major reason why Ryan overthrows his receivers on the deep throws because the further he throws it, the less likely it'll be intercepted. And in other places, they are coached to go out there and make a play. And that subtle difference between telling someone to go out there and try hard to succeed, as opposed to try hard not to fail, is what makes one better equipped to handle adversity. And that small flip in mentality is why this team has struggled in January and against playoff-caliber teams when adversity has hit. It's why they don't do well when playing on the road. It's why they have to be perfect in those games, or else things go pretty badly for them.

That inability to respond to adversity is a much, much, much bigger issue and obstacle for this team to overcome than Matt Ryan's inability to hit deep passes. While the deep passing is indeed an obstacle, it's not insurmountable. Because deep passing only makes up 5-15% of all NFL throws. And if a team knows it cannot hit the long ball, then they can thusly modify their offense to marginalize the need to be able to hit on the 25-40 yard shots consistently by spreading the field horizontally. But this is something the Falcons are avoiding doing (by their lack of depth at WR & TE), and thus they are purposefully narrowing their margin for error. And thus now they are in a position where Matt Ryan has to make improvements as a vertical passer, otherwise their offense isn't going to work. And therefore I believe a large part of the onus is still on them, the coaching staff. This is what people mean when they say the offense/personnel isn't ideally suited for Matt Ryan. Because with a player of Matt Ryan's skillset, you want an offense that is strong in the middle, not on the edges. But the are strong on the edges, and thus if they cannot make this work, then they too have failed, not just Matt Ryan.

"Pudge Wrote"

Well here's a scrap of evidence. What about Chris Chandler; now he may not have been great through his career but he was pretty
darn good here under the conservative Reeves. And as you might say the examples you give are Qbs moving on from some experience;
to take the next step like Ryan is trying to do. My example with Chandler may be in the same boat as he was a veteran; but Reeves was calling the plays.

Now its not all or nothing. Do you think Steve Young learned something from Joe Montana as he sat on the bench.? I'm certainly
saying many Qbs learn from those in front of them, I even think Vick learned something from Chandler but couldn't tell you what it was. I just don't see Don Shula helping Dan Marino.... so I'm not saying and in fact what I call "learning on their own" may be studying film of the best Qbs in the league; but Fran Tarkenton didn't get help and he played for 3 teams I believe... including the Giants. He took the Vikings to 4 Super Bowls; I think but Bud Grant didn't help him at all!!

Just because we're in a technology age doesn't mean the coaches can make the Qbs. Their are lots of instances of Qbs leaving one team to go to another; but you choose the passing coaches to say they made the qb; yet OPEN your mind a little bit; I can see that
Sean Payton's scheme has looked like it has helped Breeze; but should Sean Payton been John Fox do you not think Breeze could still not be the winning Qb he is; just perhaps without the extra Jazz..... and some teams just have more talent.

For every example you give of a Qb going to a wide open
offense a Qb goes to a more conservative coach and shines,.....You just don't name them.

Finally "Pudge Wrote"

You've said that so many times most here on this board probably believe it...... Yet when Turner was having all those fumbles Coach Smith didn't take Turner out or limit his carries. You were screaming for Turner to be taken out but Coach Smith didn't waffle one bit!!

Just as you said; I see no evidence that Coach Smith has scared Ryan into or any
other player on the field to not take chances.... I look at Grimes when everyone on the board wanted him shipped out; he took chances and missed; until he got it...... Many of our players were like that!! What makes you think its Ryan who is afraid not to make mistakes; and Ryan who is playing it safe...... After all if Ryan says "if your long your not wrong" I doubt he'd say that if it was
Coach Smiths saying....... I think Ryan came up with that himself!! I also think its Ryan who has been playing it safe; but if he has more arm strength now he might start connecting......Its all mental for the best Qbs; maybe this mental flaw will leave Ryan if he thinks his arm is stronger!!

No, what I said was that after Turner had fumbled 4 times in 4 games, that if he had done so a 5th time in 5 games, then Mike Smith's method of leaving the problem alone and letting Turner sort it out for himself would clearly not be working, and thus a more drastic step was needed which included benching him. Clearly, the problem went away and thus more drastic steps did not need be to taken. So in that case, Mike Smith's method of doing nothing worked out in the end.


No, the case of Brent Grimes is a rarity on this team and at the NFL level. For every Brent Grimes, there are 10 Chris Owenses or Chevis Jacksons who do not rise to the challenge.


I do think it is Ryan playing it safe. My point is that the coach's should recognize this and do whatever it takes to get him out of that. Because playing it safe does not lead to greatness.

Your example of Chris Chandler epitomizes that. Chandler was not a great QB. He was a very good QB, but only when Dan Reeves constructed an offense around him that suited him. That was an offense that had a strong running game, and made extensive use of the play-action deep pass. But at any point when the running game disappeared from the table, Chandler became a mediocre QB as he had been in previous stops when he did not have the ideal supporting cast.


You are completely misconstruing what I've been saying. I'm not saying the "made" the QBs. I'm saying that Payton's system allowed Brees to flourish, and therefore Brees went from being a very good Pro Bowl-caliber player in San Diego to the HOF player we know him today to be. That greatness was always inside Brees, but because of the coaching staff in San Diego and him running an offense led by LT and he was meant to be a game manager, that greatness not allowed to flourish. Payton didn't make Brees great, he just opened the door for it.

And my point is that the Falcons are much more akin to the Schottenheimer Chargers, which similarly to with Brees, they stagnate Ryan's potential to be great. Game managers like Ryan has been, and Chandler was, and the overwhelming majority of starting QBs in the league cannot be great, at least not on the level that a Brady, Brees, or Peyton Manning is/were.

Tom Brady's greatness didn't occur to around 2004 when the Patriots began to move towards a QB-centric offense rather than relying on Antowain Smith/Corey Dillon, and their stout defense to win games. Before that he was a very good QB, but he was not nearly the great player that we know today.

Belichick, Payton, Walsh and the like were tending the garden, watering the plants, aerating the soil, applying fertilizer to make the seed grow as much as possible. The Falcons aren't really doing that. Asking Ryan to manage the game most weeks, and then turn it on in the 4th quarter when need be is fine for winning in the regular season against a bunch of 6-10 teams, but when it gets the playoffs and you have to beat 10-6 teams, it clearly hasn't been a great recipe for success.

And Matt Ryan cannot control this. He can't storm into Mike Smith's office and demand that they do something different. Or he can, but there shouldn't be a single person in the world that should expect him to. And he shouldn't have to do that in order to take the next step.

The Falcons need to give him more room to grow, and if they do more to expand the offense and play a more aggressive style that is designed to make as many plays as possible, rather than make as few mistakes as possible, then there is only going to be so much room to grow. And thus Matt Ryan won't become a significantly better player than he is today.

But because they have no depth behind their starting WRs and TE, and they have an old decrepit RB that can't help much in the passing game, and they have a porous O-line. That isn't a supporting cast that is designed to get the most out of Matt Ryan. And the problem comes is that when Matt Ryan can't make up for all these deficiencies, the fan base questions his toughness, leadership, and guts. And because Turner is a #1 fantasy RB, Gonzo a future HOF TE, Roddy White catches 100 passes, and Julio Jones has superhuman talent, they think that is enough to win at the highest levels. But they fail to understand so much, in that the previous OC didn't know how to make those players complement each other to make each other better. The fact that the team rarely used Julio Jones last year, and even when they did it didn't help their ability to win games tells you everything you need to know.

I hope to God that Dirk Koetter comes in and that changes. And if he does, then I'll give him complete credit. It's become an Xs and Os league, and many people don't quite yet realize it yet. And Mike Smith has clearly shown throughout his career that is the area he is most deficient. And that is one of the key limiting factors at keeping this team from achieving at the highest level.

I don't know what the point is of coaches if players go out there and "do it on their own." There is no point. Coaches are utterly useless in that case.

That's just silly.

It's about creating a system your key players thrive in, and using that system well each week. Thus far the Falcons have failed on both. Hopefully they'll get the few players to help.

This "professional players should get it already" stuff is absurd. Why do you think guys like Chuck Smith makes a living? Why does Larry Fitzgerald have camp yearly? Because it takes a lot to make the next step in this league. And for a QB, it takes all of the talent aspects, as well as being on the same page as the coaches.

For anyone who doesn't understand the difference coaching makes, actually dissect a New Orleans game. They have players in the middle to throw the ball up to if they're covered. They do short roll pockets. They use wider spacing with their guards on the roll pockets. They create a movement offense so that a short Brees has huge throwing lanes. And they spread the team out since he doesn't have a cannon. Do people think this stuff happened by coincidence? It was by design. All the best offenses now are by design. Yeesh.

"TAKEITDOWN SAID"

lOOK YOU GOT COACHES MOST OF THEM WERE ORDINARY PLAYERS; AND have no clue how to get someone to up their game.
Many are good cheerleaders; some have taken courses; but you could only name a few players who were helped by the assistants.

Coaches can keep you motivated; they can say good job; but when a team plays poorly you usually didn't see squat of of the
assisant coaches; Its really not hard too see. Its because Assistant Coaches usually have never been trained to coach!!

Face it; the NFL does not train head coaches and I don't think i see that starting now.

Really? I've been thinking about this for awhile. When most of the talking heads speak of M Ryan, to whom is he 'compared'? It's almost never guys with mobility( Cam, Vick, Steve Young, etc..) or guys known to possess a skill and a rocket arm ( just fill in the blanks there). Ryan is compared to intelligent QB's like Peyton or Brady: which gives Pudge and others props for accurately accusing of Smitty not realizing this and actively structured an offense around the skills Ryan already has.

So, in short guys like Peyton and Brady don't 'need' coaches, in short, they themselves are doing the job along with the coach. They already command the game at the line of scrimmage. Now, I know this statement is a generalization, but I believe it to be true.

I remember back on the 'Roost Forum when Ryan played his rookie preseason games and everyone over there was screaming about him having a 'weak arm'. Then, in his first game he throws that long skinny post for a TD, and it went away for a year. When they scaled him back in 2009, the old 'weak arm' tribe came out of the caves again.

I guess adding 7 more pounds may help Ryan, but I've felt he already had the ability to throw anywhere on the field, but there was something else holding him back. Now, Pudge will say it was Smith's 'influence': and I dont discount that entirely.

Have you guys ever watched some old classic boxing matches, or to keep it updated, MMA matches? Have you ever seen ( and it happens alot ) a guy who knows he is going to 'lose' by the late rounds, and instead of trying for that knockout come from behind punch, instead covers up or just tries to stay alive to the end? Happens all the time!

Now, his cornerman is supposed to motivate ( like a coach )but even by then, any competant guy having been around the fight game many years knows when his fighter gets to that point: the point where he has been so damaged he is willing to put his pride down and just make it to the end, there is nothing more he can do to help.

The time to help is the run up to the match, the conditioning, the technique, watching film, etc. But once your guy is in there and has given up: nothing can be said or done to help.

The worse thing to see is a promising young fighter who has one of those matches, where he essentially 'gave up' fight again and fight worse. Because it means his pride is so damaged, now he's just going through the motions, collect his check and go nurse his wounds. That happens all the time, too.

I say this because if Pudge is right: then it's up to Smith and Co to get that fire back. But, I ( and prolly Cyril ) am still looking at Ryan, that guy that threw the Skinny Post TD his first throw, the guy pissed off in the first playoff game, the guy who's pride would not deter him, and Im thinking if Smith hasn't got him 'motivated' by now, it may be too late.

Because what I saw in that Giant Fiasco(tm) was one of those fighters I described above, and that frightens me.

Now maybe 7lbs and Koetter along with Smith can get Ryan back. That's the best I can hope for, to be honest.

I think the goal here in Atlanta is what we can all agree on is to start winning in January, and eventually that could/should lead to winning in February.

And basically to solve these issues, I think you have 2 choices, and only 2 choices to make.

I agree with any and everyone that says Matt Ryan is naturally conservative. This can be a pro and con. It means that you're far less likely to get game-killing mistakes in the first 3 quarters, but it also probably means that come the 4th quarter there is somewhat an uphill climb. Now, I think Ryan has been very good in the 4th quarter over the course of his career, which doesn't make this a huge deal. People on this board often point out his 4th quarter failures, but they are heavily outweighed by his successes. The other key area to note about Ryan is that he is very smart, and I think you can plug him into any scheme, and he can grasp it and execute it. I think he understands what he needs to do in any given situation in order to make things work, and I think that is a vastly underrated ability because I don't think there are many QBs in this league that possess that ability. That IMO puts him on common ground with guys like Brady/Manning, that several other talented QBs (e.g. Stafford, Cutler, Vick, Flacco) do not possess.

And this fact leads to the 2 choices...

1) You either have to embrace his naturally conservative streak and go "full game manager."
or
2) You either have to try and minimize this conservative streak and ask him to embrace a more aggressive pass-first attack, and because of his mental acuity I believe he'd be able to grasp and/or thrive in such a scheme if given the tools to do so.

Now for the record, I think Option #2 is the better choice. IMO that will lead to greater and more frequent success over the next 7 or so years than Option #1.

Now I think the problem in Atlanta is that this choice should have been made immediately after the 2010 season. And had they made the Jones trade with this idea in mind, then it was an acceptable if not good trade. And IMO the results of that decision should be coming to fruition today. And that IMO should have meant dumping Turner, adding a 2nd TE, getting a 4th WR on the outside, beefing up the interior of the O-line, etc. Ryan doesn't have a big arm, he's not going to be a guy that can consistently drive the ball outside the numbers. So that means you need to have your best playmakers in the middle of your offense. Gonzo is still a good TE, but he's no longer dynamic. The ideal is to have a Gronk/Gates/Graham/Vernon Davis type of player there. And if you don't have him, then you need to be looking. And now for 3 whole off-seasons IMO the Falcons have gone out of their way to neglect that position. You get that outside threat to move JOnes inside where he can be your dynamic slot option like Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Marques Colston except he's really a cross between Cruz and Colston. And that leaves your outside threat in a lot of 1 on 1 situations down the field, which leads to more big plays. This is the same basic concept the Pats have with adding Brandon Lloyd, GIants with Manningham, Saints with Meachem, and the Packers with Jordy Nelson. Oh yeah, and some dude named Roddy White is somewhere in the mix somewhere.

This is what takeitdown among others keep harping about when they talk about embracing this more aggressive style. You need to add versatile personnel and a lot of it if you really are embracing Option #2. The Falcons have yet to do this, and thus they are failing.

Now, let's go back with Option #1. And the team is also failing here IMO. To make that work you need a RB with fresh legs in the prime of his career playing behind a physical O-line. The Falcons don't have this RB anymore with Turner on the decline. And the Falcons don't have this up front because of poor decisions. Baker is not that type of LT, and the Falcons have known this for years and have neglected addressing it. Holmes does indeed have the potential to be that sort of LT, but I again stress to people that I believe it'll take him 3-4 years before he becomes that player. That's why a player like Marcus McNeill should have been fairly attractive to the Falcons to hopefully be the bridge to when Holmes was ready. You got Konz, OK that's good. But in that style of O-line, he will be a center not a RG. You need to hope Manuwai is the answer at RG, or you need to find another power run blocker (you had one in Dahl but you let him go). This is why I harp on the fact that if this was the type of team you wanted to be, then staying pat at #27 last April and targeting Gabe Carimi was a smarter decision than trading up for Jones. Had they stood pat, they could have had Carimi last year to upgrade the LT spot, and then DeCastro this year to upgrade the RG spot, and still Konz at C to form the core of what could have been a dominant O-line for years to come. And don't simply brush it off as hindsight, because this was a definite possibility had the Falcons had this plan from the start and embraced Option #1 a year ago.

Now, not only does it matter what you do on offense with Option #1, you also need to upgrade your defense because it's going to be more important for your defense to get stops and extend the game. You need a strong D-line that can control the line of scrimmage. This is why adding a player like Mario Williams made sense. Adding Williams if you chose Option #2 also made sense because you'd be able to build up quicker leads forcing teams to pass the ball more often and thus you'd need a stronger pass rush to deal with that as well.

And DE has been another position that IMO the Falcons have neglected over the course of several off-seasons. Sure, they've added several 5th and 6th round pass rushers over the past 4 years, but those caliber of players don't build strong pass rushes. It's the 1st and 2nd rounders that do that.

People think I complain about our coaches and front office just for the sake of complaining. But when you have a long-term plan that plan is easily decipherable when you see the personnel decisions and draft day decisions teams make. And when you look at this team's personnel/draft decisions, that long-term plan is not apparent, and this is why I criticize the direction of the team.

IMO, their decisions make it easily decipherable that they only have a short-term plan. In that if they don't win a Super bowl this year or next year, they are going to be in a position where they are going to have to gut the team. And while they won't be building from scratch, they certainly will have to revisit the drawing board.

I don't fault anyone for trying to win now, but I don't think this team has anywhere close to the pieces it needs to pull it off. The only chance they've got really is if Julio Jones just starts his best Fitzgerald/Megatron impression and starts single-handedly killing teams. If that happens, I think we have a shot. If it doesn't, then we're going to continue to be an also-ran that struggles to win in January.

And to me the single biggest problem with the Falcons going forward has little to do with Matt Ryan himself. It has everything to do with this team not having made this choice firmly one way or the other. They are wishy washy, and are stuck in the middle. And thus as an organization they are stuck in neutral. This is exactly what I mean by complacency. It's a team that is "settling" for being good, but not striving to be great in any form or fashion.

If they go with Option #2 then Matt Ryan is going to be a HUGE factor in the outcome and future of this team. If they continue to lean toward Option #1, then what Matt Ryan does or does not do really doesn't matter as much. It's more about the RB, O-line, and defense.

I guess my point is, when you see a guy like Peyton or Brady, you make the offense work with them. Peyton ran the offense out of a standard 3 receiver, 1TE, 1RB offense with a pass catching back. Brady has a spread offense. Both are designed to take advantage of their brains and limit the issue with their lack of athleticism. So, maybe they don't need coaches on gamedays, but they exist in offenses designed to accentuate their positives. Their coaches weren't dumb enough to have them running 2blocking TE, 2RB 1WR sets. That doesn't make sense and they wouldn't look as good.

That's the only point for Ryan. Design a good offense. Otherwise, you're in the way. But once you've gotten in the way and changed the QB, at least change him back. If you told him to always throw the ball away...tell him to stop.

I do fear the beaten boxer thing you mentioned. I don't think they're there yet, but they need to give him the control to make the difference. Nothing beats you faster as a competitor than your own side limiting you.

Pretty much spot on, Pudge. There's been no consistency of vision, which is really what I thought this new group was bringing in.

But of your options above, I think going with 2 makes sense. 1 requires as many offensive pieces, plus a GREAT defense, usually a 3-4 defense AND you still don't have any guarantees or pair up favorably to the top offenses as the rules change.

2 simply requires that you have the multiple receiving threats, and a pretty good D, to have a "punchers chance" in any game. And when you're on, you're nearly unstoppable.

Edited because I reversed them. Obviously I am more for the offense that takes risks and has multiple weapons.

Cyril wrote:
What makes you think its Ryan who is afraid not to make mistakes; and Ryan who is playing it safe...... After all if Ryan says "if your long your not wrong" I doubt he'd say that if it was
Coach Smiths saying....... I think Ryan came up with that himself!!

Pudge Wrote :

Pudge Wrote:

Pudge as we've acknowledged the internet can take us a long time to get to the BIG POINT but we are finally there..... I don't think you can make a aggressive person conservative; nor make a conservative man aggressive!! So if this is the main point; the coaches just can't
change people's make up of 25 years IMO; so although No.1 is what everyone wishes; everything points to me they've already tried to a
degree to help Ryan. Is he upset after a loss;(not really) does he seem to have a big ego; (not really) does he even have fire (not really) to me; so although I'd like number 1; I'm sincerely afraid we have too make Ryan a great game manager; with a good Qb coach calling a lot of safe throws like the extra screens; or extra safe passes.

My biggest hope and I've expressed this before and that's " you can usually do what you think you can do " I've always guessed that Ryan himself thought his arm strength not to be enough; and if the extra weight work makes "him think" his arm is stronger then perhaps
he won't be afraid of his arm; and he then can go to that #1 spot and take it all on!!

There isn't a coach in the world that is going to turn Matt Ryan into Jay Cutler or Brett Favre. BUt I do think that if you put him in a system that requires him to make a tight-window throw in a given situation to make a play work in a given situation, his mental acuity, his understanding of the game, and what is necessary to win, that he'll do it. This is what I mean by being more aggressive. He's never going to be the gunslinging/gambling type of QB. But I don't think Peyton Manning or Tom Brady is.

We've seen Ryan make these kind of throws and plays in the past, but the problem is that our offensive scheme doesn't really require him to have to make them all of the time. And I don't have any expectation that if you switch to this style of offense, Ryan will get it right away. It's going to take time for him to get comfortable in that sort of system, just like it did for all of the other top-notch QBs. But if it takes 2, 3, or 4 years for that comfort to develop, when it does, this team is going to be a legit Super Bowl contender assuming that the rest of the team is up to par.

But if you don't have that sort of situation, the rest of your team has to make up for the things that your QB can't do. That means your defense has to be that much better, or your running game needs to be that much better. And that requires us to do a much better job than what we're doing in the draft and free agency. And with lackluster big money FA signings like Robinson and Edwards, not having 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks in each of the last 4 drafts, and then only hitting on 60% of your 1st round picks isn't going to cut it.

And as I said in the past when it came to people getting mad at players like Michael Jenkins and Jamaal Anderson for not being the great 1st round picks, at a certain point you have to realize that the player is what he is and getting upset that he isn't more isn't constructive and doesn't anything except make you more miserable and bitter. And if this is all Matt Ryan is, then so be it. If all he is a Top 8-12 QB, then I consider that a good problem to have. If you're "saddled" with having a QB as good as Ryan, Flacco, Cutler, Kurt Warner, Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Drew Bledsoe, Carson Palmer, Boomer Esiason, or Daunte Culpepper, woe is you as a fan because that's what they call #1stworldproblems.

As I said before, if you can't win with that, then you're doing something wrong as a coaching staff and front office. The onus switches to them to make that work. Because you're not going to find a better QB in all likelihood because if you do it's almost certainly going to require you to draft in the Top 5 or 10 picks of the draft. So the only chance this team has to get an upgrade at QB in the coming years is if Ryan gets hurt, the Falcons tank to 3-13, and then there happens to be a better NFL prospect than Matt Ryan in that particular draft.

But everybody keeps stressing that Matt Ryan has to do more. And maybe he does. But if he does, he's going to need more help from this coaching staff. The idea that this coaching staff has done their job to the fullest or close to it, is complete BS in my book. But they get a pass for that because they aren't Jim Mora, Bobby Petrino, Norm Hecker, June Jones, etc.

Look, if the goal is to win Super Bowls, then I think we all can agree that Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, and Thomas Dimitroff all need to do a better job. But given that Matt Ryan isn't in a position of controlling what those others do, and given what he's been asked to do so far, I think he's done his job the best. He can only do what Mike SMith asks him to do, and he can only work with the tools that Dimitroff provides. Ryan may have to finish it, but they have to get the ball rolling. And if this is all they are capable of doing, this MartyBall offense, and their personnel record so far, then that is not going to be good enough. Matt Ryan has to be one of the true greats to ever play the position to make up for that, just like Peyton Manning had to do in Indianapolis.

" Pudge Wrote"

Well I'll continue to say what I believe; and sure Arthur would love a Super bowl; but he'd like a bigger stadium more; and all the publicity that would be lasting for Arthur; as well as as a bigger estate when the Falcons are sold for a huge profit (if that happens)....

I believe Arthur would certainly like a Super Bowl, who wouldn't, but that would only last one year; and I think Arthur wants his fans happy which does come from winning all 8 home games or 7 out of 8.

Arthur I'm sure has studied the salary cap; and as you've mentioned several times he could have made sure that contracts were redone, and more money spent; just because he doesn't know football IMO; he understands money is my guess; and probably spends a huge influence on how much gets spent..... You saw the pres-conference and I haven't seen the massive changes or "no scared cows" that he alluded to then.

I think our hope is our offensive is what we've hoped from our new Coordinator; and perhaps our defensive end was really hurt when we got him, Abe somehow comes through again, and everybody plays up to their best potential.......Its a long shot but not impossible!