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 Post subject: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 4:00 pm 
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Michael Turner - does he rush for over 1000 yards this season?

Julio Jones - does he have 1000 receiving yards this season?

Roddy White - can he have 1000 this year?

Matt Ryan - can he break 4400 yards and 35 td's?

Quizz - 500 rushing and 500 receiving?


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 Post subject: Re: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 7:33 pm 
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Turner - over 1000, under 1100
Jones & Roddy both over 1000
Ryan should be over 4400 yards although probably by a thin margin, but he probably doesn't pass more than 32 TDs
Quizz - under on both. I think he and Snelling combined will surpass both marks, but they will be splitting duties for either one to pass it.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 1:10 am 
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Michael Turner - does he rush for over 1000 yards this season?
yes
Julio Jones - does he have 1000 receiving yards this season?
no
Roddy White - can he have 1000 this year?
yes
Matt Ryan - can he break 4400 yards and 35 td's?
no
Quizz - 500 rushing and 500 receiving?
no

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 Post subject: Re: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:58 am 
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Interesting on Quizz. Going over 500 yards for the season is roughly 31 yards a game. I guess the majority thinks Smitty and crew are still blowing smoke about getting the ball out of Turner's hands and into "the explosive" Quizz's?


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 Post subject: Re: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:16 am 
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Yeah, getting 31 yards per game would probably require Quizz to get 7 or 8 carries per game. I just don't see it happening. Not with Snelling also on the roster.

Last year, we ran the ball 450 times. If we ran the ball the same amount, that's about 28 carries per game. 42 of those carries last year were by QBs, 7 by WRs, so let's assume about 3 carries per game are by non-RBs. That leaves 25 carries per game. If you subtract 8 carries from that, that leaves 17 left over for Turner and Snelling. Snelling gets about 3-5 carries per game right (averaged 2.9 per game last year)? So that leaves 12-14 for Turner. Which is at the very low end for starting RBs.

Not to mention all the talk that we will run the ball less this year. If we run the ball only 400 times (which would compare to the Bottom Third of the league), then that's 3 less carries to go around for everybody.

In the end, I think you can expect Turner to probably get 15 or 16 carries per game. Which leaves a combination of 9-10 carries for Snelling and Quizz combined. If you assume they split those carries (a fairly safe assumption) that would be about 4 or 5 for Quizz per game. That sort of workload would require him to average over 6 yards per carry to get to the 31-yard bench mark per game. Doesn't seem likely.

300 yards for Quizz? Sure. 400? Possibly. But 500? That would likely require Turner and/or Snelling to miss a significant chunk of the season with injury. And even if Turner were to miss a big chunk of time, you're still talking about Quizz & Snelling splitting the starter's reps.

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 Post subject: Re: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:28 am 
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Pudge wrote:
Yeah, getting 31 yards per game would probably require Quizz to get 7 or 8 carries per game. I just don't see it happening. Not with Snelling also on the roster.

Last year, we ran the ball 450 times. If we ran the ball the same amount, that's about 28 carries per game. 42 of those carries last year were by QBs, 7 by WRs, so let's assume about 3 carries per game are by non-RBs. That leaves 25 carries per game. If you subtract 8 carries from that, that leaves 17 left over for Turner and Snelling. Snelling gets about 3-5 carries per game right (averaged 2.9 per game last year)? So that leaves 12-14 for Turner. Which is at the very low end for starting RBs.

Not to mention all the talk that we will run the ball less this year. If we run the ball only 400 times (which would compare to the Bottom Third of the league), then that's 3 less carries to go around for everybody.

In the end, I think you can expect Turner to probably get 15 or 16 carries per game. Which leaves a combination of 9-10 carries for Snelling and Quizz combined. If you assume they split those carries (a fairly safe assumption) that would be about 4 or 5 for Quizz per game. That sort of workload would require him to average over 6 yards per carry to get to the 31-yard bench mark per game. Doesn't seem likely.

300 yards for Quizz? Sure. 400? Possibly. But 500? That would likely require Turner and/or Snelling to miss a significant chunk of the season with injury. And even if Turner were to miss a big chunk of time, you're still talking about Quizz & Snelling splitting the starter's reps.


Hard to argue with that breakdown. The only what if is......Snelling and Turner are basically the same type of runner. If the "new" offense is indeed deviating from Mularkey ball, the change of pace back will be Quizz and Snelling touches should be down.

6 or 7 carries for Quizz, 2 or 3 for Snelling? It puts 500 within in reach. Or at least plausible.


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 Post subject: Re: Let's play over/under
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:43 am 
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AngryJohnny51 wrote:
6 or 7 carries for Quizz, 2 or 3 for Snelling?

I could see a ratio of 3:2, 3 carries for Quizz, 2 for Snelling. But I don't see Quizz getting 2 or 3 times as many if Snelling is also healthy. Because I think most people don't perceive that there is a lot of difference between Quizz and Snelling as far as third down backs go. They are about equal. Snelling is a very good receiver, and many think Quizz is/will be the same. And both are roughly even in terms of pass protection, although Snelling is the more experienced of the pair, therefore that makes him slightly better.

Point being that in these 3rd down situations where Turner is likely to be off the field, you have the choice between Quizz or Snelling, and no real significant advantage for either. Sure, you could make the argument that Quizz beign a bit more explosive and having more potential on screens could mean that he gets the nod. But why then would that translate to 2 or 3 times more carries? And so if you're in a situation where they play roughly the same amount of 3rd down snaps, then it would be the case that when Snelling was in the game, the team overwhelmingly passes the ball as opposed to Quizz, where there is at least a moderate threat of running.

I just don't see a lot of cause (besides injury) why Quizz would get a lot more work than Snelling would.

I don't buy the idea that Turner's workload is going to be dramatically reduced. Last year, he averaged 18.8 carries per game. If he averaged 16 per game this year, that would be a 15% reduction. That seems feasible. But I don't see it dropping a lot more than that.

For Quizz to hit that 6-8 carry benchmark, I think it would likely require Turner to get 10-12 carries per game. And I don't think Turner can be effective with that limited a workload. In 59 career games with the Falcons, Turner has gotten 12 or less carries in 7 games, or 11% of the time. If Turner gets only 12 carries, then he's going to have 40-50 yards. Is that enough for a coaching staff that stresses balance so much? Unless Quizz and Snelling are combining to give the team another 70+ yards per game, that is not going to cut it for them.

Last year, Turner averaged 6.6 carries per game just in the 1st quarter. Quizz averaged 0.9 carries in the 1st quarter, and Snelling averaged 0.4. And so you understand that idea of balance, Matt Ryan is averaging 7.9 dropbacks in the 1st quarter. Basically, you have an 8:8 run/pass balance in the 1st quarter. Now compare that to the Saints, who we can bet are heavily skewed towards pass. And it seems they are. Brees averages 9.1 dropbacks per game in the 1st quarter. Ingram, Sproles, Ivory and Thomas combine for an average of 5.5 1st quarter carries.

Does anybody really think that will be the Falcons "new" offense? Maybe Turner only gets an average of 4 1st quarter carries. Where are the remainder going? Ryan? Quizz? Snelling? Probably a combination of all 3.

I just don't think this coaching staff is going to be content with at halftime, Turner has some stat lines where he only has 6 carries for 25 yards. And as I've said 214 times before, if that is going to be the case, then why is he making so much money? You don't pay someone $7.5 million to give you 6-8 first half carries. If you're going to pay someone that much, then they should be getting 10-15 1st half carries. And you'd hope with that workload, he can give you 45-70 yards. Personally, I don't think Turner is capable of that sort of production anymore, but we'll see.

If he's getting somewhere around only 15 carries per game this year, then he better be averaging close to 75 yards to make his salary worthwhile.

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