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 Post subject: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:38 pm 
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It's funny because half of the players he's compared to averaged under 4 yards per carry in their 5th seasons. And sure, the Falcons were really playing from behind against the Jaguars and Vikings down the stretch. :roll: And then against the Texans, we were down 10 points for about 5 minutes in that game in the 2nd quarter. Turner's running helped us get back into that game, and cut the lead back to 1 score. But then what happened in the 2nd half? On Turner's 4 carries in the 3rd quarter, he gained a total of 3 yards. So the entire excuse for why Turner struggled down the stretch in those 5 games, is only a valid excuse for 2 of those 5 games (CAR & NO). In the other 3, the reason why he is struggled is because he struggled.

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http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantas ... e-a-factor

2012 Draft Prep: 'Frustrated' Turner insists he'll be a factor
Dave Richard
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
Aug. 13, 2012 11:41 AM ET

By now you've probably read and heard a lot of news and analysis that suggests Falcons running back Michael Turner is headed for a bad season. He's turned 30 years old. His coaches have come out and said they'd like to scale back his workload after he totaled over 300 carries for the third time in four seasons. His game trailed off last season as he struggled through five of his final six games. The Falcons have a speedy second-year rusher in Jacquizz Rodgers and a pass attack on the brink of exploding thanks to receiving dynamo Julio Jones.

Turner's read and heard it all too. And he's laughing.

"The way people talk, man, they just expect your body to just crumble," Turner told CBSSports.com, chuckling at the notion that turning 30 means his skills will deteriorate overnight. I hear a lot of talk about the way I finished the season off but I still finished third in the league in rushing. So what's everyone else doing? Why is there negative talk about me like I'm done and I'm finished? I still feel young, still feel fresh."

He should feel fresh. Turner might have turned 30 but he has just 1,479 career carries including the postseason. True, 1,214 of those carries have come in his last four seasons with the Falcons, but typically it takes a lot more than four years of regular work for a running back to crack. The whole idea that a fifth straight year of having a heavy workload being bad for a rusher isn't entirely valid and history proves it. Here's a look at how other big backs like Turner fared in their fifth seasons after getting a lot of work in the previous four.
Running wild for five straight years
Player Four straight years
of big carries Fifth season's stats
Jerome Bettis '93-'96: 1,116 carries '97: 375 carries, 1,665 yds, 7 TDs
Stephen Davis '99-'02: 1,185 carries '03: 318 carries, 1,444 yds, 8 TDs
Corey Dillon '97-'00: 1,073 carries '01: 340 carries, 1,315 yds, 10 TDs
Eddie George '96-'99: 1,360 carries '00: 403 carries, 1, 509 yds, 14 TDs
Steven Jackson '05-'08: 1,090 carries '09: 324 carries, 1,416 yds, 4 TDs
Edgerrin James '99-'02: 1,184 carries '03: 310 carries, 1,259 yds, 11 TDs
Jamal Lewis '02-05: 1,199 carries '06: 314 carries, 1,132 yds, 9 TDs
Ricky Williams '99-'02: 1,197 carries '03: 393 carries, 1,372 yds, 9 TDs
Maurice Jones-Drew '08-'11: 1,151 carries '12: ???
Michael Turner '08-'11: 1,189 carries '12: ???

Many people will point to the way Turner's 2011 season ended and believe he wasn't fresh. Excluding a Week 17 drumming of the Buccaneers' bottom-ranked run defense where he ran wild, Turner totaled 321 yards on 99 carries (3.24 average) between Week 12 and the Wild Card Playoff game at the Giants with just one touchdown. In those games, Matt Ryan attempted at least 34 passes in all but one and there was at least one 100-yard receiver between Roddy White and Julio Jones. Ryan had to pass in some of those games because the Falcons fell behind. The team ultimately went 3-3 over that span.

Of course that means in the games before Week 11 the Falcons were 6-4 and Turner totaled 888 rush yards (1,012 total) and eight touchdowns to start his season. The detractors conveniently forget that. It's nothing to sneeze at and that's where Turner's focus is whenever anyone brings up the end of 2011.

"I can't remember who we played those last five or six games or so, but ... it all depends on the flow of the game how things work out," Turner said. "If a team jumps out with a big lead on us, of course we've got to start playing catch-up and start passing the ball downfield a little bit more. Can't control that. We want to run it and control the tempo for every game, that's every coach's dream, but sometimes it doesn't work your way. You've got to work through it, push through it and do what you can."

The flow of the game that Turner pointed out is important. If the Falcons' defense gets run over, it takes opportunities away from Turner much like it would nearly any running back given that situation. But a similar notion could help Turner in 2012: Once defenses realize that the Falcons' offense can throw at will because of White and Jones (not to mention Tony Gonzalez), their safeties and linebackers can't concentrate on stopping the run. And that's when Turner can chew up yards.

"[We're] just going to take what the defense gives us," Turner modestly said about succeeding when defenses focus on the pass and not the run. "We've got playmakers all across the board, so any one of us can be a threat to the defense. So whoever they decide to leave open, that guy's going to have a pretty good game."

As for the coaches saying they want to preserve Turner by limiting his carries, he's not sweating it because he's heard the exact same thing before.

"It's like every year it's been the same story over and over again," he said. "My first year starting I had like over 370 carries or something like that and that was a curse and guys don't come back and stuff like that. I don't listen to it. I just go out there and just do my job. I want to be a contributor the same amount as I've been in years past. I don't feel that I am getting weaker or can't handle the workload anymore. We did add some more weapons to this offense, obviously, but I'm going to prepare like every year since I first got here.

"I don't feel like [I need fewer carries] at all. Not at all."

To prove that it might be all talk, Turner confirmed he's been getting the same amount of work in training camp as he has in the past. If there was a slowdown coming with Jacquizz Rodgers taking over some touches, it might not play out that way.

Turner should be credited for being a good teammate as well. With all the commotion about his future and Rodgers cutting into his time, Turner is still excited for what the second-year speedster brings to the table.

"Quizz is looking great," Turner said. "Last year, like all rookies, had a disadvantage of not having the OTAs and things like that, you had to go straight to training camp and learn everything on the run. He's more comfortable this year, you can tell by the way he's practicing and the way he's carrying himself around the facility and things like that. He's ready to roll and he's ready for games to start to show everybody what he's got."
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What seems likely is Rodgers taking some work away from Turner. Enough to keep him under 300 carries on the season? Yes, but it shouldn't be drastic unless Turner gets hurt along the way.

Here's why: The Falcons don't care about our Fantasy teams, they care about winning. Since Turner arrived -- and including the postseason -- the team is a ridiculous 27-3 when Turner gets at least 20 carries. When he has between 15 and 19 carries, a range he might fall into more often in 2012, the Falcons have gone 10-11 over four years but 8-5 over the last two seasons. With 14 carries or fewer for Turner, the Falcons are 4-7 including 0-4 last season. Granted, when the Falcons aim to grind the clock toward the end of games Turner will load up on carries, but it's not like he was sparsely used until the fourth quarter in those situations -- he was a factor in all four quarters. Rodgers will pitch in to help the Falcons' run game thrive, but Turner should be the genesis of their rushing numbers and thus should translate into some wins for Atlanta.

Another point: The Falcons play only one Top-10 run defense from 2011 (the Cowboys) and have four games against top-half run defenses (the Eagles and the Saints twice with that Cowboys matchup). The matchups are just as juicy for the passing game (two Top 10 pass defenses, three top-half pass defenses) but what's been the common thread in the Falcons' wins? Rushes. If the Falcons get the ball late, guess who's going to carry it.

Turner's excited about the passing game opening things up for him,. He's of the belief his offensive line will be improved ("They want to get that stigma that they're a bad offensive line off of them," he said) and that the new up-tempo Falcons offense will help him just as much as it will help the Falcons' other offensive studs.

But Turner ultimately is excited about proving people wrong. His laughs are replaced with a determined tone. With a track record of success to build off of, he should make believers out of detractors this year and extend his streak of 1,000-yard, double-digit touchdown seasons.

"My name's been up there on the charts every year and guys just write me off. They're giving up on me before they've given a sign, really," he said. "I could see it if I had like 800 yards rushing or something last year, but I was still in double-digits in touchdowns, my yards per carry went up from the previous year, I even had more catches out of the backfield last year. I just don't get what everyone's looking at as far as the press and stuff, all the negative talk about what I'm doing on the football field. I see the stats all the time. If I'm improving in certain areas, then I don't see what the big fuss is about me losing my step.

"It definitely frustrates me. I'm not going to lie. But I'm just going to let them keep talking and I'm going to keep playing and keep putting up numbers."

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:48 pm 
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We'll know in a few weeks if Turner's going to get screwed this year. I won't be crying if it goes down that way.


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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:39 pm 
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It's interesting how much of the article is about him being good teammate and wanting to work with the system; that's not what the title suggests.


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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:42 pm 
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I'd like to trade him!!

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 8:56 am 
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Cyril wrote:
I'd like to trade him!!



You would get a 8th round draft pick and a bucket of used practice balls.





yes, I know there are only seven rounds

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 10:08 am 
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Pudge wrote:
"I can't remember who we played those last five or six games or so, but ... it all depends on the flow of the game how things work out," Turner said.
"It definitely frustrates me. I'm not going to lie. But I'm just going to let them keep talking and I'm going to keep playing and keep putting up numbers." .


what frustrates me is a guy who gets paid millions to compete can't even remember the last part of the season, yet is plugged enough to hear all the 'talk' that says he might be overrated.

Stupid is as stupid does :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:49 am 
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At least Turner sounds very motivated, so we should all be appreciative for that.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 12:02 pm 
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Emmitt wrote:
At least Turner sounds very motivated, so we should all be appreciative for that.

And the Award for Trying to Put the Most Positive Spin on A Subject that is Least Deserving goes to...


Allen Strk A.K.A. Emmitt!


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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 12:13 pm 
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Turner wants the rock. What RB (or WR) in the league doesn't? He knows this is his last year in Atlanta. He, like many other veterans before him is playing for his next contract elsewhere. It would be no different if you or I was in his place.....


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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:36 am 
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Post of the year goes to Pudge for those pictures :rofl: :rofl: I'm always going to be a Turner supporter, the guy has been worth the big contract. I'm not expecting a big year out of him but I don't think he's a total liability. He's still going to have his moments of being a bully and putting defenders on their back. I just don't feel the need to rip the guy anymore when he's everyones favorite punching bag not named Sam Baker.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:53 pm 
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Look, despite my Turner bashing, I don't think he's worthless or terrible. I just don't think he's worth his price tag. $7.5 million for what is a below average to average starting RB? Doesn't make any sense for me, especially on a team that doesn't have the horses to be a more than a below average to average running team.

There's no sane person that believes he's a Top 10 RB, despite a Top 10 price tag. And even if you think that he's still better today than players like Beanie Wells, LeGarrette Blount, Michael Bush, Donald Brown, and Shonn Greene who few would say are "top backs." And if you think Turner is better than those guys, then that's your opinion and you're entitled to it. But the gap between Turner today and those guys isn't huge. If you had to pay Turner $7.5 million or get one of those guys for $3 or $4 million, who would you choose? Especially in an offense that is going to throw the ball 58-60% of the time. We know that Turner isn't going to help us win a playoff game. Neither would Donald Brown. Exactly, thus why you don't need to pay him $7.5 million either.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:02 pm 
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Turner's contract was for 6 years 34.5 million. Not bad for both parties IMO. Comparable players and their deals:

Steven Jackson - 6 years - 44.8 million
Marshawn Lynch - 4 years - 31.0 million
Frank Gore- 4 years - 25.9 million

Turner has played up to his contract. As we know, many players don't. Is he worth 7.5 million this year? No of course not. But did he out-play his contract in 2008, 2009, and 2010? Yes.

Instead of bashing him, be happy that we had a player actually play up to and beyond his contract. This team would not have accomplished what it did the past 4 years without his contributions.

I know, Iknow, it doesn't matter what he's done in the past, it's what's he going to do this year. :down:


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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:38 pm 
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I don't disagree really with anything you said AJ51. You're right, Turner has lived up to his contract. And Turner has been a great Falcon for the past 4 years. We definitely would not be where we are today without him. But you've just made the sentimental case. As a fan, you have the right to be sentimental about players. But as the GM of a professional football team with the goal of winning championships, then sentimentality should be a minimal factor.

Ernie Accorsi said it perfectly, you'd much rather be accused of getting rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late. If you're not willing or able to make tough choices, then you're in the wrong business. Thankfully, neither you or I have to face that pressure. But TD does.

So for the sake of TD, Turner better come out like gangbusters and make me eat my words about him for the second time. BTW, I am happy Turner lived up to his contract. But that happiness only applies to the previous years as you said. I was happy in 2008, I was happy in 2009, and happy in 2010. Not as happy in 2011. If he doesn't play like a $7.5 million running back in 2012, then why should I remain happy?

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:54 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
So for the sake of TD, Turner better come out like gangbusters and make me eat my words about him for the second time. BTW, I am happy Turner lived up to his contract. But that happiness only applies to the previous years as you said. I was happy in 2008, I was happy in 2009, and happy in 2010. Not as happy in 2011. If he doesn't play like a $7.5 million running back in 2012, then why should I remain happy?



See: Keith Brooking(s). Wash. Rinse. Repeat :ninja:

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:42 am 
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Part of it is how we differently see how the past affects the present. I see the past this way:

In 2008, Michael Turner was hands down our MVP. Most Valuable player. I will pound the table against anybody who suggests otherwise. Matt Ryan might have been the "spiritual" leader, but when it came to winning football games, it was far and away Michael Turner that was the catalyst.

In 2009, I think who the MVP is, I think you could make a case for Turner due to his injuries and how much of a blow that caused for us at a key point in the year. I think you could also probably make the case for Tony Gonzalez, who seemingly came up with clutch plays that turned the course of 3 or 4 games. I think you could certainly make the case that Roddy White was also pretty huge that year. But regardless, it's clear that Turner was a huge part of what success we did have that year, and certainly is well into that MVP conversation.

In 2010, Turner certainly had his value to the nature of our offense. We were a ball control team that needed a workhorse back like him to make that work. He was a key catalyst, but was he the biggest catalyst to our success that year? I probably wouldn't say so due to the number of 4th quarter game-winning drives Ryan and others like Roddy had to help engineer. I've said before in terms of our talent level, we were probably a 9 or 10-win team, and I think Turner was a huge part of that (like say 50%). But the difference between us actually winning 13 games as opposed to 9 or 10, I think is because of Ryan, Roddy moreso than anything else.

And then you get to last year, where I think Gonzo was far and away our MVP for the first half of the year. And despite the disappointing years of Ryan and Roddy, I still think they were making much bigger contributions than Turner. I don't think he's any longer in the conversation for MVP. 4th place? Sure. But he's not medaling, and the gap between the bronze and 4th place is a lot bigger than the gap between gold and the bronze.

So I see, definite MVP to probable co-MVP, to possibly 1st runner-up, to distant 4th place. And so I ask where will he be in 2012? The pattern suggests diminishing returns every year. And so logic tells me that is very likely to happen in Year 5. And due to the expected ascension of Julio Jones, he's almost certainly going to drop to 5th place. Now he's in Curtis Lofton territory. If someone said Lofton was our 5th best player on defense last year, I'd agree wholeheartedly with that. But because of the skills of the 4 players above him (Abe, Babs, Spoon, & Grimes), coupled with his own skill, I think that made Lofton "non-essential" personnel. You'd like to have him, but you didn't need him to succeed. And with Turner, I think he's even less necessary, given the fact that he's at the end of his career, and unlike Lofton doesn't play every snap, is in fact lucky to play 50% of snaps, and plays a position that is becoming increasingly less valuable league-wide, not just here in Atlanta.

It's a projection, and I won't deny that. It's certainly possible that my projection of what kind of player Turner will be in 2012 is dead wrong, and he in fact reverses course and plays like the player he was before 2011. But I don't think there's a single poster on this forum that believes that will be the case. There seems to be universal agreement that he'll be less of player. How much less remains to be seen. And it baffles me that people think despite this, he should be one of the highest paid players on this team, and one of the highest paid players at his respective position. Especially if you're reasoning is because he was so good X number of years ago.

For example, during the protracted Brees negotiatons, I heard talking heads saying that the Saints should be willing to pony up that extra $$ because of everything Brees has brought to that organization over the past 6 years. I say B.S. Brees should be the highest paid QB in the league because he's arguably the best QB in the league, and will be for the foreseeable future. If you ask me who will be the best QB in the league over the next 5 years, I'd probably say it will be Aaron Rodgers. But if you'd ask me who will be the 2nd best QB in the league over the next 5 years, then I'd certainly throw Brees' name into that ring. And that makes him worth $100 million, not what he did the past 6 years.

This is not the NBA, there aren't guaranteed contracts. The only thing stopping NFL teams from paying guys whatever they want really is themselves. The Falcons can say to Michael Turner, that Arthur Blank has signed $29 million in checks to you over the past five years. Now we want $3 million of that money back. And if Turner scoffs at that then he can go f*** himself, at least that would be the stance I would take if I was in the Falcons front office. I don't begrudge any player for making as much money as he can, but if he refused to take a paycut because he believed he could get $7.5 million elsewhere, then he would be welcome to try. And he'd probably get it. But I'd bet good money that it would turn out to be like Eddie George in Dallas, Edgerrin James in Arizona, Thomas Jones in KC, and any number of past situations where a RB was past his prime, but the team that signed him was too enamored with the player that he used to be and completely ignored the player that he currently is.

And unfortunately, I have a bad feeling that this is a situation that the Falcons are going to find themselves in by the end of this year, and it will be another bad situation that they created entirely by themselves just like last year's debacle up front.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:11 am 
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Quote:
Bear-woodsjpg-ee4252752e478b73_large_tiny by James Rael on Apr 2, 2012 3:00 PM ED

Michael Turner signed a six-year, 34.5 million dollar contract in 2008. 15 million was guaranteed. He had some good games in San Diego, but we took a risk. In four years, Turner has earned that contract and more, and he's never held out or demanded more money. He's rushed for 50 touchdowns as a Falcon; best in franchise history. He's earned 2 Pro Bowl appearances. He's navigated some of the more comedic custody battles in American history.

Since the 2011-2012 season ended, many have argued that Michael Turner should or could go before his current deal expires. He's a 7.5 million dollar cap hit in 2012 and a 8 million dollar cap hit in 2013. He already has 5 million of that, as it was part of his guaranteed signing bonus


We've discussed this before but I don't think we got an answer----was Turner so smart he back loaded his guarantee money or ten million
of it to these last two years.... Does anyone know how much of his 15 million guarantee has been paid....I can see where that would make
THIS year a much tougher question as to what to do with Turner?

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:57 pm 
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It depends on how you consider it Cyril. Turner's deal included a $15 million signing bonus, which factors for the guaranteed portion of his deal.

So in one sense, all of the guaranteed portion of his contract was paid in Year 1 of the deal. But at the same time because signing bonuses are prorated over the life of the deal as far as the salary cap is concerned, it also means that part of that still affects us today. With a $2.5M prorated per year, that means if we were to cut Turner right now, $5 million ($2.5M x 2 years left on his contract) would accelerate as "dead money" this year. That of course matches his current base salary, which would come off the books. Basically meaning that the Falcons could cut Turner right now and save $2.5M against the 2012 cap. If they waited until after this season, then it would cost them only $2.5M to cut him (the last portion of his prorated bonus), thus saving $5.5 million against the 2013 cap (the equivalent of that year's base salary).

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Thu Aug 16, 2012 11:32 pm 
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Thanks---- It just didn't make since that he had guaranteed money for the last two years of his contract, but I kept
reading stuff that I thought almost said that? Yea its pro rated......Can you teach someone to catch a football from 5 yards away (:

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:13 am 
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I liked that we showed that we are willing to go to the mutter pluckin' screen tonight (preseason game 2). Finally. I kinda hate the screen when observed in a vaccum, but in the big picture, it will give the opposition one more little thought that will keep them on their heels. I think this will help Turner with regard to his YPC, because teams will be less apt to full-on crash one side of the line*** on "running downs". They'll hopefully freeze for one more split second on Matty's play actions. I also think/hope that it will create a niche for Jizz...thus, taking a few more plays/hits off of Turner's shoulders. Fingers crossed. :wink:


***Is it just me, or does it always seem obvious that we're gonna run to the wide side? I've never charted it or anything, but it feels like we go wide everytime.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:57 pm 
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He might miss Ovie Mughelli more than we think.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 1:20 pm 
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Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
He might miss Ovie Mughelli more than we think.

He should. It's the RB-FB equivalent of a QB losing a WR like Andre Johnson, and then his team replacing him with Darrius Heyward-Bey. DHB is pretty good, and if he develops one day might be very good, but he's never going to be Andre Johnson.

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 Post subject: Re: Frustrated Turner insists he'll be a factor
PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:46 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
Confess_Jesus_Now wrote:
He might miss Ovie Mughelli more than we think.

He should. It's the RB-FB equivalent of a QB losing a WR like Andre Johnson, and then his team replacing him with Darrius Heyward-Bey.


Or Batman banging Katie Holmes, passing out, and waking up next to Donnie Darko's sister.

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