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 Post subject: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thread
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:00 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:05 pm 
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Wait the guy who only lead this team to seven points against one of the worst secondaries in the league? Oh scary, please Atlanta is going to destroy this fool. Other than Smith and Olsen, who are they supposed to be scared of? Then that Panthers defense will be fun to score 30 points against. I'm not being arrogant but I think this game will be over by 3rd quarter.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:13 pm 
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Oh I wouldn't count on the Falcons steamrolling the Panthers. Division games are usually a lot closer than they should be given the differing quality of teams.

The Panthers actually played very well against us last year, I expect the same to happen this year, especially given how they are fairly desperate for a W after that beatdown.

I do think we'll win, and I do think we'll put plenty of points on that weak Panthers secondary. But it wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Panthers also scored plenty against our defense.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:30 pm 
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I might be overreacting a bit about the game ending by the 3rd quarter. I expect Carolina to play much better but I just don't see how Atlanta doesn't win this game by 14 or more.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:36 pm 
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If we continue to play at the level we have played the first 3 weeks, we should definitely win this game. Meanwhile the 'Aints are in in jeopardy of going 0 and 4. I so hoped but never believed the Chiefs would beat them today!

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:42 am 
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/panthers-w ... --nfl.html

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:13 pm 
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This is definitely a trap game. Cam Newton is great. Their defense stinks, but Cam has the ability to shred us if we're not careful. The good thing is, we're the only ones who think our defense will take that offense lightly. I'm sure our guys are well aware of the circumstances. I think it's just a matter of this brutal schedule not getting to us on either side of the ball.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 3:52 pm 
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Well I was spot on with the amount of points that the falcons would score so I will not give a break down I will just give my prediction:

34-20 Falcons win

I have Ryan shredding them and having a huge day. Last week I predicted the Chargers scoring 17 points when all they could muster is 3 but I think that they will give us some problems in the first half.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2012 6:46 pm 
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Falcons 24-17 winners.....

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 2:55 pm 
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I'm really starting to think Cam's success last year was due to the lockout. Teams simplified their schemes and playcalling due to the lack of preseason and he benefited from it. This year, teams are better prepared and have a full season of film to work from, and he looks like hot garbage.

I will not be surprised if it takes him several years to improve upon his rookie year stats.

We've consistently scored 30+ points on the Panthers the past few seasons, so I'm going to predict the Falcons win with a 38 - 13 final score.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 3:14 pm 
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I think it has more to do with Cam mirroring the type of player that Michael Vick was.

Cam is a supremely athletic, but lacking on some of the innate passing skills required to be a great passer. He's not accurate, and probably never will be. He's never going to be one of those guys that can consistently complete 62-65% of his passes like precision passers are.

I also think he's lived much of his life relying a lot on his legs, and thus when you're developing in HS, college, and subsequently the NFL, the game never really slows down for you because running the football keeps the game at that constantly high-speed motion.

When you saw Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and RG3 in college, it was very easy to tell that they were processing information at an abnormally high rate. That was also apparent at Auburn that Cam was not. Cam, like Vick, was always able to make up for that slower processing speed by their supreme athleticism (able to break out of things most others cannot) and their superior arm talent, which is why those two players tend to be late on throws and tend to force things into tighter windows than they should. It has led to their high level of INTs this year and in past years.

The good thing for Cam is that Vick went first and failed. And Cam at least understands that he needs to improve as a passer in order to really reach his own personal goals as a football player. Vick didn't understand this.

And that is what gives Cam a shot down the road to improve. But the problem Cam is going to face is that he is surrounding by a subpar supporting cast in Carolina. If he had a good coach and a good GM, he would fare much better. LIke a young Vick, you're going to get these inconsistent performances from Cam week to week. So a good supporting cast would surround him with a steady group that can get him through the rough times.

Carolina needs to improve their defense, and they have done a poor job at that, particularly with their D-line. They also need to rely more on the ground game, and physical ground and pound style, that will open up the play-action pass and vertical game that is where Cam is at his best throwing the ball.

Carolina needs to build a team similar to San Francisco going forward if they want to really achieve at a high level. And until they do, Cam is going to suffer the brunt of the blame for their problems.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 3:19 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
.

The good thing for Cam is that Vick went first and failed.


Carolina needs to build a team similar to San Francisco going forward if they want to really achieve at a high level. And until they do, Cam is going to suffer the brunt of the blame for their problems.


By 'failed' do you mean failed to win a Superbowl? Because getting a second 100 million dollar contract aint 'failure' in my book...That's grifting!
:P
Also, Cam is going to have to stop sulking and be a leader, or it wont matter what team he plays for, IMHO.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:07 pm 
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http://deadspin.com/5947937/was-the-pan ... philosophy

Was The Panthers’ Fourth-Down Decision Dumb Enough To Change The NFL’s Punt-To-Win Philosophy?

Aaron Schatz

From: Aaron Schatz
To: Josh Levin

After 10 years of writing stat analysis on the NFL, I think I've written about fourth-and-short decisions roughly eleventy-billion times. For 10 years, I've been writing that NFL coaches need to go for it more often on fourth down. For most of those 10 years, there have been a lot of other people also writing that NFL coaches need to go for it more often on fourth down. And Sunday in Atlanta, we all finally got to see the platonic ideal of mistaken, pusillanimous fourth-down decision making.

Up 28-27 and faced with fourth-and-1 on the Atlanta 45 with 1:44 left in the game, armed with two highly paid running backs and possibly the greatest short-yardage running quarterback in NFL history, and having gashed the Falcons that day for 5.7 yards per carry, Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera punted. And there was a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of stat analysts suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

We've been through a lot of controversial fourth-down decisions over the last few years. We had Bill Belichick's infamous fourth-and-2 against Indianapolis. We had Mike Smith's decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 in overtime against New Orleans. We had Jim Schwartz's decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 last week that ended up not actually being a decision to go for it.
Was The Panthers' Fourth-Down Decision Dumb Enough To Change The NFL's Punt-To-Win Philosophy?For the second year in a row, Slate and Deadspin are teaming up for a season-long NFL roundtable. Check back here each week as a rotating cast of football watchers discusses the weekend's key plays, coaching decisions, and traumatic brain injuries. And click here to play the latest episode of Slate's sports podcast Hang Up and Listen.

Every time we hit one of these controversial fourth downs, conventional wisdom among the football commentariat will call for a punt. And pretty much every time, one of my compatriots like Brian Burke will run the numbers and find out that going for it was the right call. However, in a lot of these situations, it is only the "right call" by a small percentage of win probability. When Mike Smith had to make a decision on fourth-and-1 in that Falcons-Saints overtime, for example, the win-probability difference between punting and going for it was just five percentage points.

And so for the last couple years, I've been arguing that we—the football stat people—need to stop trying to make our argument with situations in which the advantage of going for it is small. We need to make our argument with obvious situations in which the advantage of going for it is huge. The typical old-fogey argument against all the research about fourth-down probabilities is that those stats don't take into account the actual strengths and weaknesses of the teams on the field. The research is based on league-wide trends and numbers. What if your team has a terrible offensive line? What if you have a great defense that is likely to stop the other team after you punt? In my opinion, these are valid arguments to make when the win-probability difference is small. Sometimes, the old fogeys are right: No, you don't go for it on fourth-and-1 from your own 30 if your running back is Jahvid Best and he's running behind the Miami offensive line (dead last in 2011, converting only 46 percent of runs in short yardage).

But here we have a situation in which a) the difference in win probability between punting and not punting is massive and b) the personnel involved screams "go for it." This analysis by ESPN Stats & Information suggests that the Panthers' chances of winning the game dropped by 26.1 percentage points when they decided to punt the ball, going from 83.5 to 57.4 percent. That's nuts.

But wait, it gets worse. As noted above, the Panthers have Cam Newton, who holds the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. How hard is it for Cam Newton to get fourth-and-1? Heck, he had just converted third-and-2 a few seconds before, although he ended up un-converting when he fumbled the ball. The chances of him converting the fourth down were a lot higher than the chances he would fumble again. And if you wanted to use Newton as a decoy? Well, in a league where more and more general managers are refusing to pay big money to running backs, the Panthers have not one but two backs signed to huge contract extensions worth almost $50 million combined. Is the blocking a problem? Well, center Ryan Kalil has made three straight Pro Bowls and was second-team All-Pro last year. Football Outsiders numbers had Carolina converting 71 percent of runs in short yardage in 2011, fourth in the NFL; that number includes runs with two yards to go, so their probability of converting with just one yard to go will be higher.

Oh, and what happens if you punt the ball? Well, Carolina would be handing the ball back to the current leading candidate for 2012 NFL MVP, Matt Ryan, and trying to stop him with a defense that was the worst in the league in 2011 and now starts a rookie fifth-round pick (Josh Norman) at cornerback and a free safety (Haruki Nakamura) who had never started a game until this season.

What in the name of Kealoha Pilares was Ron Rivera thinking here?

The old school will say that Rivera made the right decision because rookie Brad Nortman launched a spectacular punt. The Panthers downed it on the one-yard line; the only way the punt would have been better was if the Atlanta returner had fumbled it away. Because of that great punt, Rivera's decision didn't actually end up hurting Carolina's win probability—at least according to those league-wide statistical models. (Remember, personnel matters: Carolina was still stuck isolating Nakamura in deep coverage against Roddy White, one of the five best receivers in the league.)

But you don't judge decisions based on results; you judge them based on process. When Rivera made the decision, he didn't have a magical crystal ball that told him Brad Nortman was going to land the punt on the one-yard line. Nortman easily could have put the ball in the end zone for a touchback—just like he did when punting to New Orleans in a similar situation near the end of Carolina's Week 2 win.

And not to put too fine a point on it, but Atlanta won anyway. The decision to punt led to pretty much the best possible result you could hope for, and the Panthers still lost. If you want to judge based on results instead of process, you have to be honest and admit that it didn't work. The process sucked, and the results sucked.

This is it. This is the decision we need to hold up when we're screaming about fourth downs; not Mike Smith's fourth-and-1, not Bill Belichick's fourth-and-2. This play. Cam Newton is now our poster child for bad fourth-down decision-making. General managers need to bring up this play in every interview with every head coach prospect from now on. If the job applicant would not trust his 6-foot-5, 245-pound quarterback to ice the game with an 80 percent probability of succeeding, he shouldn't be a head coach in the National Football League.

Aaron Schatz is editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com, lead writer on Football Outsiders Almanac 2012, and a writer for ESPN Insider, and yes, he knows how ironic that sounds.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 4 Falcons vs CAM MOTHERF-ING NEWTON! Discussion Thr
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:00 am 
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... ns-week-4/

ReFo: Panthers @ Falcons, Week 4
Peter Damilatis | 2012/10/03

There’s a fine line between glory and disappointment in the NFL, and Cam Newton and the young Carolina Panthers learned that lesson on Sunday versus the Atlanta Falcons. With a slim lead and 1:51 remaining, Carolina was a mere 2 yards away from icing the game and completing a big NFC South upset. But Newton came up short on a third-down dive, fumbling the ball and giving the Falcons one last chance at an improbable win. Backed up on his own 1-yard line after the punt, Matt Ryan made the most of the opportunity. He connected with Roddy White to set up a game-winning field goal as time expired. In overcoming his first deficit of the season, “Matty Ice” improved his lifetime record at the Georgia Dome to 28-4.

At 4-0, the Falcons have an early stranglehold on the NFC South and resemble the 2010 Atlanta team that grabbed the top seed in the NFC. Newton and the Panthers sulk back to Carolina at 1-3, searching for a way to save a season that started with so much hope and promise. Let’s take a look at some notable takeaways from Sunday’s game:

Carolina – Three Performances of Note

Nakamura’s Costly Errors

Haruki Nakamura’s (-0.9) started the game strong, snuffing out an early Falcons scoring opportunity with a crafty end zone interception, but his day went downhill from there. White beat him on a 49-yard bomb on the next drive, although Nakamura wouldn’t have been in that position if not for blown coverage underneath. Ryan’s second touchdown to White split Nakamura and linebacker Jon Beason. And with 10:29 left in the third quarter, Michael Turner caught a short pass over the middle that should have been limited to a first-down gain. Instead, Nakamura over-pursued the play, missed a tackle, and left no one between Turner and a 60-yard dash to the end zone.

Yet none of those errors matched the embarrassment of Nakamura’s final gaffe. With 0:59 left to play and no timeouts, Ryan heaved a bomb to White in double-coverage. Nakamura was in perfect position to defend the pass, but completely misplayed it to the point where he didn’t even lay a finger on the ball. That gave the Falcons the life they needed to pull out the win. New rumors that Ron Rivera could reinsert Sherrod Martin into the starting safety role indicate that Nakamura’s otherwise consistent play may no longer outweigh his costly errors.

Charles Johnson’s Pass Rush

At the other end of Carolina’s defense, the Panthers front four harassed Ryan all game, led by defensive end Charles Johnson (+6.8 pass rush). Johnson’s 10 total pressures included a career-high four sacks, and his seven defensive stops were four more than any other Carolina defender tallied. He announced his presence immediately, knocking down a wide receiver screen pass on the Falcons’ second play from scrimmage, and then bull rushing right tackle Tyson Clabo into Ryan for a sack on the next play. Johnson also showcased his speed with 1:19 left in the third quarter, when reserve lineman Mike Johnson barely laid a hand on him as the Panther dropped Ryan for a 9-yard loss. Many fans didn’t know of Johnson before the Panthers gave him a massive contract last year, but his play certainly matched paycheck in this game.

Olsen On Point

On a day when Brandon LaFell didn’t record a catch and Steve Smith was busy jawing with cornerback Dunta Robinson, tight end Greg Olsen (+6.6) was the Panthers’ best offensive weapon. Olsen broke two tackles on his first quarter touchdown, and may have had another score if he could have stayed in bounds on his 34-yard reception in the fourth. As good as he was in the passing game — his 2.33 Yards Per Route Run ranks third among all TEs – Olsen’s run blocking was even more impressive. He controlled defenders at the point of attack and was a big reason the Panthers rushed for 64 yards on eight carries outside left tackle Jordan Gross.

Atlanta – Three Performances of Note

Ryan Thrives Under Pressure

We noted in our Three To Focus On preview that, despite his hot start, Matt Ryan had completed just one of five deep passes in his first three games. His completion percentage also dropped to 57.1% when he faced pressure. On Sunday, Ryan (+3.6) put both those questions to rest. Against the Panthers, he was 4-of-8 for 152 yards and two touchdowns on passes beyond 20 yards. And despite being sacked a career-high seven times by Johnson and company, he was 7-of-10 for 118 yards and a 142.9 NFL QB Rating when under pressure. One particularly impressive play came with 5:46 left in the fourth quarter, when Ryan was again facing a rush on third down. With Johnson bearing down on him for another sack, the Falcons’ QB somehow found Jacquizz Rodgers for a 7-yard gain. Although he didn’t get the first down, Ryan turned what could have been a long field goal try into a 33-yard chip shot and those three points proved crucial later in the game. With a great performance under pressure, Ryan’s 102.73 PFF QB Rating leads all passers this season.

White’s Still Alright

For those who expected Julio Jones (-1.4) to supplant Roddy White (+3.0) as the Falcons’ top receiver, this game serves notice that the veteran wideout will not go quietly into the night. White’s 169 yards and two touchdowns were critical in a back-and-forth contest, and his aforementioned 59-yard catch brought Atlanta back from the brink of defeat. Ryan has a ridiculous 136.4 QB rating when throwing the ball to White this season. After 17 drops in 2011, White has just two so far this season, cutting his Drop Rate from 13.04 last year to 6.90 in 2012.

Ryan still targeted Jones eight times in this game, but the young wideout was often shadowed by top CB Chris Gamble, leaving White to work on Carolina’s safeties and weaker corners. White’s second touchdown, where he lined up in the slot, blew past Beason, and then stayed inside Nakamura, was a perfect example of how Atlanta dictated these matchups. There will be future games where Ryan leans on Jones, but White is very much still entrenched as one of the league’s best receivers.

Concern for Clabo

Since we started grading in 2008, Falcons right tackle Tyson Clabo has been among the better offensive linemen in the league. His +24.4 mark last season ranked second among offensive tackles, which makes his -4.0 grade on Sunday all the more troubling. Recovering from a recent hip injury, he gave up nine QB pressures after surrendering just six in the previous three games combined. His three sacks allowed nearly matched the four he yielded all of last season. Johnson levied much of that damage, but there were times when Clabo was even outmatched by reserve lineman Frank Alexander (+2.3). If Clabo’s injury keeps affecting his performance like this, the Falcons may have to adjust to some unfamiliar issues on the right side of their protection.

Game Notes

- Turner showed why he grades high in our Elusive Rating scale, breaking a ridiculous 11 Panther tackles. It was a team-wide failure for Carolina, as 12 different defenders recorded a miss.

- After a tough start to the season, Panthers rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly earned a +3.6 grade in this game thanks to some nice plays in pass coverage. His tackle for loss of RB Jason Snelling with 14:37 left in the second quarter was particularly impressive.

- The George Costanza award for ‘going out on a high note’ goes to Kealoha Pilares. The Panthers’ second-year WR scored a 36-yard touchdown on his only offensive snap of the game.

Game Ball

With a very honorable mention to Charles Johnson and his relentless pass rush, it was Matt Ryan’s poise under that pressure that earns him this game ball. The season is very young, but right now Ryan is a legitimate MVP candidate.

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