This is neither logical nor well thought out. With 4 minutes to go we kick a field goal and it's tied, then the Jets get the ball with the two minute warning and the Falcons having two time outs yet. This would have left us in a far better position then giving the Jets a win or go to overtime scenario. If the Jets score to quickly we get a chance to tie (likely), also the Jets would be more likely to run time, and run more conservative plays which fits are defense better.
Also stating that going for a TD to prove a point rather that taking sure points is just poor decision making.
We went with a 15% chance of 7 points, vs. a 99% chance of 3 points in the first half of a game. A pop warner coach would easily say this is stupid.
Talk about illogical, when are the Falcons going to get a better opportunity to score than when they are at the Jets 18 yard line? You're saying that have a higher probability of getting both a defensive stop and scoring within 4 minutes (likely on a 60+ yard drive) than converting 1 yard at their opponent's 18 yard line?
You're reaching. Again, you may not have agreed with the decision to go for it at that point, but don't act like Mike Smith is wrong or crazy for thinking that it gave the Falcons a better chance.
A 15% of scoring 7 points? Where are you pulling that number from? Based off average success rate, the Falcons had a 68% chance of converting that 4th & 1 at the end of the 2nd half. As Advanced NFL Stats 4th down calculator shows, the only reason to kick the field goal is if you believe you only have a 33% of conversion. At that point in the game, the Falcons had converted 50% of their 1-yard to go situations running the football. So...
Now, if you're saying that Smitty should be more conservative in those situations, and always take the points. That's fine. I don't necessarily agree with you, but I won't fault you for that sort of philosophy. But again, I'm not going to fault the guy when he figures he has a 50% chance of 7, or a 100% chance of 3, and he opts to go for 7. Neither should you.
On top of blowing the point calls, he also blew his clock management. Once the Jets were in field goal range, we should have started using our timeouts. It does not matter that they got first downs, negating any timeouts. The timeouts would have given us a better chance of doing something had we stopped them.
Are you referring to the end of the game?
Wrong again. When should the Falcons have called a TO, when the Jets were at the 38-yard line with 37 seconds left? That's a 55-yard field goal. Sure, that's within a makeable range, but you have a 40% chance of making a kick from that distance.
On the next play, the Jets got 4 yards. Now it's a 51-yard field goal. Should he have called a TO then? OK maybe, but guess what the Jets did. Now 31 seconds on the clock.
Then they run the screen to Gates for 3 yards. Now it's a 48-yard field goal. But again, the Jets called TO. Now just 25 seconds on the clock. I'm trying to figure out where Smitty should have called a TO and mismanaged the clock.
Now its 3rd & 3 at the 31-yard line, Powell runs up the middle for 6 yards because Babs whiffs. And you're basically arguing that Smitty shouldn't have let the clock bleed down to 3 seconds, which he did. So apparently you're ripping him because he didn't call a TO that could have left potentially 19 seconds on the clock. Then after the Jets kick the FG, it's likely 13-15 seconds left on the clock.
Is it possible for the Falcons to score with that much time on the clock? Yes. They did it vs. Chicago in 2008. But they got a squib kick from the Bears that gave them the ball at midfield. That, coupled with a blown assignment that gave up a 26-yard completion. It was a pair of fluke plays where poor decision by Lovie Smith gifted the Falcons 30-35 yards of field position on a squib, and Mike Brown blowing a coverage gifted them another 20-25. The odds that you are gifted that again, is extremely low. And without those 60 yards, you stand almost zero chance.
Should Smitty had called the TO in that situation? Sure, there's always a slim chance. But don't act like he had poor clock management and that cost the Falcons the game.