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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:02 pm 
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Going for OL with one of the first two picks is not 'reaching'. It's 'fixing'.


It all depends on who's available at the time of our pick. Unless there is a sure fire stud.....don't reach!

If TD does take a 'projec't O-line guy with the first pick, you'll be the first in line saying to fire him.....oh wait, it's becoming clearer now. :shock:


Last edited by AngryJohnny51 on Wed Nov 06, 2013 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:42 pm 
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If Clowney is there in the 1st, and we intend to be primarily a 4-3 defense, we have to take him. (Defense) Clowney is a prototypical 4-3 defensive end. If we intend on playing the stupid hybrid scheme, it makes no sense to draft him.

If Clowney is gone, and we intend to primarily use a 3-4, or to continue screwing around with the hybrid scheme, we need to take Louis Nix, or trade down a bit and take Louis Nix. (Defense) Our big problem on defense for the past several years has been our inability to get push up the middle consistently. Nix would provide that. Gobs and gobs of it. Then again, Nix has had knee problems this year... Not exactly what you want to see from a big guy in the middle.

If the Falcons really want to go offense in the 1st, then there will be plenty of OTs available at our spot in the 1st. Frankly, I would prefer to draft DL with our first pick. The OTs available this year don't really stand out as, "ideal."

In the 2nd round, we take a guard, as there should be at least one of three good guards available where we pick in the 2nd round. The guards available are top quality talent. (Offense)


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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 1:23 pm 
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Looking at the Aikman ratings, the offense is 15th with a 78.6 rating, which is slightly below the NFL average. The return of Roddy and Julio will probably boost the offense back into a top ten unit even with this OL. Adding a #1 LT probably is only going to nudge the dial a little.

The defense is 31st with a 59.3 rating. That is so bad that only three other teams have been below 60. The teams were the '10 Texans, '12 Bills and so far the '13 Jags. Not even the much maligned '12 Saints defense last year was under 60.

Unless the best offensive player available is way above the best defensive player then they need to go defense. Honestly, I would rather see the Falcons first offensive player taken be a RB. Of course that should be in the third round or lower. :wink:

The first thing the Falcons need to do after season though is re-examine the entire Strength and Conditioning program. That is priority #1.


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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 1:34 pm 
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Unless the best offensive player available is way above the best defensive player then they need to go defense.


:clap:


I understand it's an offensive driven league, but many here fail to realize how bad our defense really is.


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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 5:22 pm 
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It's pretty simple. Do you need top-end talent on your OL to be a good OL in the NFL? Yes. But do you need a good OL in the NFL to win games? No, not really. Do you need one to win a Super Bowl? Definitely not.

Do you need top-end talent on your defense to be a good defense in the NFL? Yes. Do you need a good defense to win games? No, but only if you have the offense. But do you need a good defense if you want to win a Super Bowl? Yes. The teams that consistently win in January are teams that typically have above average to good defenses.

As it has been discussed before, if you have a good defense, then it means you can win on the road in January. And if you can win on the road as well as home, then you've essentially doubled the chances you reach a Super Bowl. WHy do you think Joe Flacco has been so successful in January compared to Matt Ryan over the past 5 years?

Again, let's look at 3rd down defense, and where Baltimore's D has ranked over the years vs. Atlanta.

2008: Ravens (3rd), Falcons (14th)
2009: Ravens (8th), Falcons (32nd)
2010: Ravens (12th), Falcons (24th)
2011: Ravens (3rd), Falcons (30th)
2012: Ravnes (12th), Falcons (26th)

You don't have to worry about Matt Ryan mishandling a snap or forcing a throw that Earl Thomas picks off because you can trust your defense to get stops.

I want to improve the OL. In the same vein as fun gus, I want to give Matt Ryan the opportunity to be the Top 10 QB he is and also play behind a good OL. But if you're asking me what I think is going to help the Falcons more get to where they want to be i.e. in the Super Bowl: A good OL or a good defense?

Then defense wins hands down. And I can't fathom anybody really suggesting otherwise.

Again, in an ideal world the Falcons can improve both. And I'm not suggesting that the team ignores the OL. But in the real world, where you have a finite number of picks, cap space, and quality free agents worth signing, then the priority has to be the defense. Especially in an off-season where we could stand to lose 5-6 starters on that side of the ball.

RobertAP wrote:
If Clowney is there in the 1st, and we intend to be primarily a 4-3 defense, we have to take him. (Defense) Clowney is a prototypical 4-3 defensive end. If we intend on playing the stupid hybrid scheme, it makes no sense to draft him.

I don't think you quite get what the word "hybrid" means, nor do you fully grasp how that applies to our current defensive scheme.

RobertAP wrote:
If Clowney is gone, and we intend to primarily use a 3-4, or to continue screwing around with the hybrid scheme, we need to take Louis Nix, or trade down a bit and take Louis Nix. (Defense) Our big problem on defense for the past several years has been our inability to get push up the middle consistently. Nix would provide that. Gobs and gobs of it. Then again, Nix has had knee problems this year... Not exactly what you want to see from a big guy in the middle.

:doh: :snooty:

This is so off the mark, that it's not even funny. "Push?" Really, the Falcons need "push" up the middle?

A. I think we really disagree on what the Falcons need on defense.
B. Even if we agreed, we have vastly different ideas of how that problem gets solved.

I apologize for my condescension, but "push up the middle" is one of my biggest pet peeves in terms of the ignorance you hear/read all the time. You want this team to draft the next B.J. Raji with their top pick, a player that has been soo good that's quickly become a 2-down player and GB has used 3 1st/2nd round picks in the past 4 drafts to "supplement." Yeah, that's a great pickup and exactly what the Falcons need with their No. 1 or 2 pick.

fun gus wrote:
I like him alot, but I do not think he has what it takes to be a dominant NT. Competant? Perhaps. But 'competant' is not worth a #2 pick.

Clearly, you missed the entire point of my earlier post about nose tackles being overrated. I was illustrating that clearly you don't need a dominant nose tackle to be good 3-4 defense. Because half of the good 3-4 defenses in the NFL, you have no clue who their nose tackle is, so therefore he's clearly not a dominant player. Yet, every single good 3-4 team, you do know one of their DEs to be a dominant player.

I beg of you, stop believing in the myth that having a dominant/good nose tackle is an essential requirement of being an effective 3-4 defense. :pray:

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:05 pm 
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If we are drafting in the top five and the first name called isnt either Clowney or Barr I will be pissed.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:21 am 
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The Mattural wrote:
If we are drafting in the top five and the first name called isnt either Clowney or Barr I will be pissed.


yeah, for a tough team like we are, lets take a guy whose coach called him out for being afraid of playing against an SEC team, or a guy who was a fullback who Jim Mora Jackass 'turned' into an OLB, beacuse of his 'bloodline' and he plays in the PAC-10?

Ill s*** a goddamn brick if we pick either of those with our first pick. I might go s*** in Thomas' arugala :ninja:

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:51 am 
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Robert Wrote
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I'm gonna take a break for a few days.


Come on, you can't do that any more than I can?? (:

To address BnB FIRST- i'VE not watched college football at all this year; so sometimes their is a great running back, if he's great; I take him but I don't even know the college players; I play golf all Saturday; and watch Sunday ticket all day Sunday; If their was a Hershal Walker i'd go for him but that would have to be a special situation; and I have no clue on any college players.

On the other discussions I'm going with defense!! You don't need anyone spectacular at nose tackle; and you can't keep winning with ANY QB if your defense lets teams convert on third down; and score long runs from scrimmage.

Look their is a reason why you keep pushing these offensive linemen!! A couple your not expecting can still step up as the going gets even rougher. One guy gets a call get his brothers car repair shop is closing; and all of a sudden you may get a changed man. Yes people do change their attitudes about pro football. Some decide early its just too rough on their bodies; and some realize its their best shot at money ever!! People's attitude change and when it comes to the NFL i don't care why.

We'll have good draft picks; and maybe even two free agents---I'm not saying all defense; but just because we have Ryan doesn't mean we have to shower him with the best offensive line; nor the worst. Quizz is small and getting slower.

When defenses stop teams offenses; then our offense run out there with motivation and a chance to put up a score. When our offense gets first downs it slows down regardless of who's fault it is.

What we don't get next year on the o-line we can fill with vets and replace one at a time, We
did get our break with our linebackers this year; lets make it pay off and we're so close to being right back in the hunt.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:39 am 
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Cyril wrote:
Robert Wrote
Quote:
I'm gonna take a break for a few days.


Come on, you can't do that any more than I can?? (:

I managed about 24 hours, but it was rough. ;)

And Pudge, I get the whole hybrid defense thing. The reason that I don't like it is largely because of the talent that we have. However, I think the reason that we have the talent issue is also related to us not having a strong plan for building the front 7.

We all know that there's a vast difference between the linemen techniques when running a 3-4 vs a 4-3. Because we're playing with this hybrid scheme where we have various numbers of DTs and DEs on the field, the players are not always playing to their strengths. That makes it hard to evaluate their performance, which makes it hard to determine what we need to do with the DL. The coaches obviously don't know what to do with the DL. They've been playing musical chairs during the season in addition to the off-season. Since Smith has been here, the DL has been an ever evolving trash heap. We barely have the same unit on the field from play to play, much less game to game.

I also submit that because of our hybrid scheme, we have invested in, "hybrid," defensive ends, who do not pull their weight in the run game. That's part of the reason that the whole defense has to commit to either the run or the pass. The front 4 cannot hold up at the point of attack when we have two undersized DEs and a, "penetrating," DT on the field. If we would commit to a 4-3, we could get effective 4-3 defensive ends. If we committed to the 3-4, we could put 3 DTs on the field and do much better with our hybrid DEs as OLBs.

I think it would be fine to commit to one of these, and still have packages that use the other scheme. However, we're kind of in limbo right now, and that makes progression/development difficult. As Mr. Miyagi said, "you either 4-3 yes, or 4-3 no. You 4-3 guess so... <squish> just like grape." Or something like that.


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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 7:51 am 
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3lQSxNdr3c

:P

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:44 am 
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Again, it seems like your issue is personnel, not schematic.

If the Falcons have yet to acquire the personnel to play their scheme, that's not because the scheme is inferior.

Not playing to their strengths, I'm not sure what you mean. Please use specific examples.

Peria Jerry is not a good run defender, and not a good fit to play DE on the edge because he lacks the quickness and range. But now that Malliciah Goodman has hit feet wet, he's pulling more of those reps than Jerry is now. And Goodman is a much better fit in that role. But Jerry is having the best year he's ever had as a pass rusher.

Osi is not a good fit for the scheme because he's limited in coverage. But again, that's a personnel issue because for whatever reason the Falcons still thought Osi had something left in the tank. He doesn't. Playing in a different scheme wouldn't change that.

Babineaux plays the 3 and 5-technique equally well, because he's a disruptive player. A penetrating DT is an extremely valuable asset when it comes to run defense, because he can disrupt plays in the backfield. A tackle for loss vs. maintaining your gap is like the difference between a sack (a loss of yardage) and a pressure (an incomplete pass). Both are positives for the defense, but the sack > pressure because it's also a negative for the offense.

Biermann is a good run defender and also versatile enough to drop into coverage. I'm not sure what about the scheme doesn't have him playing to his strength.

Corey Peters is more of a gap maintainer/space eater. Again, he's really blossomed as the nose tackle this year.

Massaquoi is athletic enough to drop into coverage, but hasn't quite developed the awareness. That's an experience issue, not a schematic issue.

The issue is personnel. What the Falcons need to find is a tall, strong DT that is 6-4 or 6-5 that can take Babineaux's role as the 3-tech in the 4-man front, and the 5-tech in the 3-man front. But also athletic enough to also play some 5-tech in the 4-man front. Obviously a player like Cameron Jordan/Muhammad Wilkerson/J.J. Watt are ideal candidates for this sort of role.

They also need an explosive edge rusher that can replace Osi. Someone that is athletic enough to stand up and occasionally drop into coverage, but he's able to put his hand in the dirt or stand up on the edge and be moved around the defense to feature the best matchup. You want a young John Abraham essentially. A Justin Houston/Cameron Wake/Aldon Smith type of player.

The chances you find players like that outside the top portion of the draft (1st & 2nd round) are very low. The chances you can find an upgrade on the offensive line outside that portion of the draft is substantially higher.

Obviously, Anthony Barr is that sort of Houston/Wake type of player. I haven't thoroughly scouted him, so I don't know whether or not he's going to be an elite pass rusher at the next level, but the glimpses I've seen say it's certainly possible. Clowney is not ideal for that role. He should be an edge guy obviously, to take advantage of his speed. And you're right, ideally he'd line up at 4-3 DE on the edge and get upfield much like Julius Peppers or Jason Pierre-Paul. But like both of those players, and another guy by the name of Mario Williams, Clowney is an athletic freak, and can be used in multiple ways. Now it wouldn't be good to drop him into coverage. He could do it occasionally, but obviously playing him to his strengths you want him getting after the QB as much as possible. And over the course of a season, you may drop him 1-2 times a game, and almost always into short zones or the flat mainly to try anticipate quick throws, screens, etc.

The majority of the time, you're going to ask him to put his hand in the dirt and get after the QB. But this scheme doesn't stop you from doing that.

The beauty/strength of this hybrid scheme is that it presents multiple fronts than you traditional/strict 4-3 or 3-4. It's basically like a 4-3 with 3-4 principles. That's what we ran last year. This year, it's more a mix of both. As I noted earlier, the beauty of the 3-4 is that it is much easier to disguise blitzes because it's harder to tell which of the LBs are going to come on a given play. This hybrid scheme adopts this, and thus why I don't get why you hate it so. You're essentially getting the best of both worlds.

But again, if the Falcons aren't playing up to the level that the scheme brings, then that's a personnel issue. It's much easier to run such a scheme when you have Terrell Suggs and Adalius Thomas instead of Osi Umenyiora and Jonathan Massaquoi...

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:34 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
The Mattural wrote:
If we are drafting in the top five and the first name called isnt either Clowney or Barr I will be pissed.


yeah, for a tough team like we are, lets take a guy whose coach called him out for being afraid of playing against an SEC team, or a guy who was a fullback who Jim Mora Jackass 'turned' into an OLB, beacuse of his 'bloodline' and he plays in the PAC-10?

Ill s*** a goddamn brick if we pick either of those with our first pick. I might go s*** in Thomas' arugala :ninja:


I take anything Spurrier says with a grain of salt, that guy has always and will always be a guy that takes shots to get in peoples head, but if you think for one second that Spurrier would rather have any other guy starting at DE for him youre crazy. Even when he doesnt have a monster game he still impacts it teams run away from him, make sure that they block him with two, and they try to avoid anything more than a 5 step drop. Clowney is the best defensive player in the draft and has the ability and potential to be special. Can you say that about any LT in this draft? Half a second more time to throw the ball is not going to put the Falcons in the Superbowl but getting off the field on third down will.

When it comes to Barr I know he is still learning how to play with leverage and is still trying to learn how to defend the run but the two things he can do from day one is be explosive as an outside rusher and he has the ability to play in coverage, two things that would improve our defense. You put Barr in the role that you had Biermann in I gaurantee that you see a return or your investment. Barr doesnt have to be a starter day one in the base package, the best way to bring him along is similar to how the Niners did with Aldon Smith and how the Dolphins are doing with Dion Jordan and in the next 2-3 years you have a bonafide playmaker on your defense that teams have to gameplan for.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:22 pm 
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The Mattural wrote:
fun gus wrote:
The Mattural wrote:
If we are drafting in the top five and the first name called isnt either Clowney or Barr I will be pissed.


yeah, for a tough team like we are, lets take a guy whose coach called him out for being afraid of playing against an SEC team, or a guy who was a fullback who Jim Mora Jackass 'turned' into an OLB, beacuse of his 'bloodline' and he plays in the PAC-10?

Ill s*** a goddamn brick if we pick either of those with our first pick. I might go s*** in Thomas' arugala :ninja:


I take anything Spurrier says with a grain of salt, that guy has always and will always be a guy that takes shots to get in peoples head, but if you think for one second that Spurrier would rather have any other guy starting at DE for him youre crazy. Even when he doesnt have a monster game he still impacts it teams run away from him, make sure that they block him with two, and they try to avoid anything more than a 5 step drop. Clowney is the best defensive player in the draft and has the ability and potential to be special. Can you say that about any LT in this draft? Half a second more time to throw the ball is not going to put the Falcons in the Superbowl but getting off the field on third down will.

When it comes to Barr I know he is still learning how to play with leverage and is still trying to learn how to defend the run but the two things he can do from day one is be explosive as an outside rusher and he has the ability to play in coverage, two things that would improve our defense. You put Barr in the role that you had Biermann in I gaurantee that you see a return or your investment. Barr doesnt have to be a starter day one in the base package, the best way to bring him along is similar to how the Niners did with Aldon Smith and how the Dolphins are doing with Dion Jordan and in the next 2-3 years you have a bonafide playmaker on your defense that teams have to gameplan for.


The Falcons have not used a #1 pick to shore up the OL since 2008...Before that, they didn't use a #1 pick on OL since Lincoln Kennedy and Bob Whitfield!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_At ... raft_picks

We used a second round pick to pick up Konz, who may be servicable by next year, but is struggling now. ( this is where Pudge chimes in and says he will 'get better' :wink: ) The rest of our OL is either JAG, journeyman depth or someone not good enough to play on another roster.

Clowney and Barr could be the second coming of Vegan Jeebus, but they cannot win us games if our QB is laying on his a$$. And if they decide to pull that trigger, they better goddamned get a REAL backup QB in here, for sure. With all the weapons Matt has, all he needs is a small pocket that wont collapse and we are a completely different team. That is why teams like the Pats are in it every year now, because they have a solid interior that gives thier smart, athletic QB's an extra second to get the job done. Like using a first round pick for Logan Mankins and then using another first round pic on Nate Solder. So Tom Terrific gets a nice OL, and they are in it year after year. :whistle:

But, that's not what we do here. In fact, it's not what we've done here since the 90's...Instead, we go get some Jamaal Anderbust with our first round picks. Or Peria ( I'll get there someday! ) Jerry. We go for the shiny hood ornament for the car, and neglect the tires, then were suprised when we cant get to where we want to go. We want the 'sexy' pic.

The smart move right now as I see it is you simply cannot go into next season thinking this crew and a third round project pick is going to be a better idea then getting a defensive end with questionable heart and tons of talent. And Clowney? Forget about it. YOu may not pay attention to Spurrier, but I will bet you lunch the 'Falcons Filter' does. Kid has talent, but lacks drive. He is also going to need bone spur surgery offseason. He may get reinjured, or play crappily and drop to round 2 or 3 even, and even then, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the trigger.

As a matter of fact, if we keep stinking up the joint, and we can snag this kid, we would become immediately better. This guy is is the #1 OT and possibly one of the top 5 offensive players, period:


http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/7 ... ts-it-done

I mean, think about it. This guy would pay off waaay more then Clowney or Barr, IMO..

But....

They probably go with Dominique Easley.. I mean he is injured, so he has that going for him, which is nice....


:doh:


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Last edited by fun gus on Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:46 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
The Mattural wrote:
fun gus wrote:
The Mattural wrote:
If we are drafting in the top five and the first name called isnt either Clowney or Barr I will be pissed.


yeah, for a tough team like we are, lets take a guy whose coach called him out for being afraid of playing against an SEC team, or a guy who was a fullback who Jim Mora Jackass 'turned' into an OLB, beacuse of his 'bloodline' and he plays in the PAC-10?

Ill s*** a goddamn brick if we pick either of those with our first pick. I might go s*** in Thomas' arugala :ninja:


I take anything Spurrier says with a grain of salt, that guy has always and will always be a guy that takes shots to get in peoples head, but if you think for one second that Spurrier would rather have any other guy starting at DE for him youre crazy. Even when he doesnt have a monster game he still impacts it teams run away from him, make sure that they block him with two, and they try to avoid anything more than a 5 step drop. Clowney is the best defensive player in the draft and has the ability and potential to be special. Can you say that about any LT in this draft? Half a second more time to throw the ball is not going to put the Falcons in the Superbowl but getting off the field on third down will.

When it comes to Barr I know he is still learning how to play with leverage and is still trying to learn how to defend the run but the two things he can do from day one is be explosive as an outside rusher and he has the ability to play in coverage, two things that would improve our defense. You put Barr in the role that you had Biermann in I gaurantee that you see a return or your investment. Barr doesnt have to be a starter day one in the base package, the best way to bring him along is similar to how the Niners did with Aldon Smith and how the Dolphins are doing with Dion Jordan and in the next 2-3 years you have a bonafide playmaker on your defense that teams have to gameplan for.


The Falcons have not used a #1 pick to shore up the OL since 2008...Before that, they didn't use a #1 pick on OL since Lincoln Kennedy and Bob Whitfield!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_At ... raft_picks

We used a second round pick to pick up Konz, who may be servicable by next year, but is struggling now. ( this is where Pudge chimes in and says he will 'get better' :wink: ) The rest of our OL is either JAG, journeyman depth or someone not good enough to play on another roster.

Clowney and Barr could be the second coming of Vegan Jeebus, but they cannot win us games if our QB is laying on his a$$. And if they decide to pull that trigger, they better goddamned get a REAL backup QB in here, for sure. With all the weapons Matt has, all he needs is a small pocket that wont collapse and we are a completely different team. That is why teams like the Pats and the Saints are in it every year now, because they have a solid interior that gives thier smart, athletic QB's an extra second to get the job done.

But, that's not what we do here. In fact, it's not what we've done here since the 90's...Instead, we go get some Jamaal Anderbust with our first round picks. Or Peria ( I'll get there someday! ) Jerry. We go for the shiny hood ornament for the car, and neglect the tires, then were suprised when we cant get to where we want to go. We want the 'sexy' pic.

The smart move right now as I see it is you simply cannot go into next season thinking this crew and a third round project pick is going to be a better idea then getting a defensive end with questionable heart and tons of talent. And Clowney? Forget about it. YOu may not pay attention to Spurrier, but I will bet you lunch the 'Falcons Filter' does. Kid has talent, but lacks drive. He is also going to need bone spur surgery offseason. He may get reinjured, or play crappily and drop to round 2 or 3 even, and even then, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the trigger.

They probably go with Dominique Easley.. I mean he is ijured, so he has that going for him, which is nice....


:doh:


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I feel where you are coming from but for all the talk about how bad the O-line is the only true weak links are at the RT and RG positions. You may differ but I do not think that either of those positions warrant a top five pick. I am just under the umbrella of thinking that when you have talent at QB like we do you can afford to not trot out an amazing O-line, not to say that you also shouldnt trott out a line with Garrett Reynolds and Trueblood on it either. On defense we dont have an equal talent to Ryan that can cover up weaknesses and make lesser players better. There is no pass rusher who demands a double team, there is no LB that teams say we have to get blocked or he will wreak havoc and there is no DB that you try to avoid. Thats what we need we need someone like that on defense thats why when you have a chance to get one you cant pass it up. The two guys at the top of draft boards right now are Lewan and Matthews and they are not cant miss prospects a LT in my opinion they arent even better than the three guys who went in the top five last year. What would be ideal would be to add a playmaker like Clowney and Barr and trade back up into the back of round one and add a guy like Cyrus Kouandjio or Cyril Richardson.

P.S. You mentioned the Falcon Filter if the Falcons continue to lose in a similar fashion as they have the last two weeks TD might not be around to get his hands on those high draft picks.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 7:25 pm 
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fun gus wrote:
As a matter of fact, if we keep stinking up the joint, and we can snag this kid, we would become immediately better. This guy is is the #1 OT and possibly one of the top 5 offensive players, period:


http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/7 ... ts-it-done

I mean, think about it. This guy would pay off waaay more then Clowney or Barr, IMO..

Matthews looks like a rock solid NFL OT to me. It's in his genes. That said, I still believe that defense wins championships, and I think that there are 2 very good defensive linemen that would significantly improve our defense in the 2014 draft.

I also believe that we can greatly improve our offensive line by picking up a guard with our 2nd round pick. I think that a stout guard would be more beneficial to our line than an OT.

That said, if we were to pick up Matthews and a guard with our 2nd pick, I would not complain about our offensive line for the next 4 years.


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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 8:09 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
fun gus wrote:
As a matter of fact, if we keep stinking up the joint, and we can snag this kid, we would become immediately better. This guy is is the #1 OT and possibly one of the top 5 offensive players, period:


http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/7 ... ts-it-done

I mean, think about it. This guy would pay off waaay more then Clowney or Barr, IMO..

Matthews looks like a rock solid NFL OT to me. It's in his genes. That said, I still believe that defense wins championships, and I think that there are 2 very good defensive linemen that would significantly improve our defense in the 2014 draft.

I also believe that we can greatly improve our offensive line by picking up a guard with our 2nd round pick. I think that a stout guard would be more beneficial to our line than an OT.

That said, if we were to pick up Matthews and a guard with our 2nd pick, I would not complain about our offensive line for the next 4 years.


I also think that a RG would greatly improve our O-line but we also need Lamar Holmes to bring it next year at RT.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:20 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
Matthews looks like a rock solid NFL OT to me. It's in his genes.

Just like Casey and Kevin Matthews right? I like Jake Matthews. From what I saw from Texas A&M last year, I liked him more than Joeckel. And I wouldn't be against drafting Matthews, but only if he's the best player available. If there is a foundation/franchise player that you can build a defense around, then the Falcons have to draft him with their top pick. Not some franchise LT that isn't going to have this huge impact on the team. Certainly not as much as you guys are saying.

fun gus wrote:
That is why teams like the Pats are in it every year now, because they have a solid interior that gives thier smart, athletic QB's an extra second to get the job done. Like using a first round pick for Logan Mankins and then using another first round pic on Nate Solder. So Tom Terrific gets a nice OL, and they are in it year after year. :whistle:

Really? It's the OL that is the secret to the Patriots success? Like this year? Brady is having the worst season since 2002, which thus far has been the only season that the Brady-led Patriots did not make the playoffs. Brady is currently the 20th best QB in the NFL based on his passer rating/ANYA, and is on pace to be sacked 46 times this year. FYI, the most he's ever been sacked in a single year was 41 times, which came when he was a rookie in 2011. Ever since then, the most have been 32 times. Yet, the Patriots currently have the 4th best record in the NFL. Is that because of the OL? Or maybe it's because this year's defense is the best it's been since the 2007 season, especially when you look at defensive ANYA, which this year's group is in fact the 4th best that Belichick has ever coached.

Yeah, that OL is really making a difference. :roll:

Also interesting that you initially mentioned the Saints and then edited them out of your post. Interesting because the 2006 Saints went to the NFC title game, and then the following year finished 7-9, followed by 8-8, then won the Super Bowl in 2009 with a 13-3 record. And you can also bring up recent history, with the Saints going 7-9 last year.

3 times in 6 years, the Saints failed to finish above .500 under Drew Brees. Is that because their OL took dips? Like say in 2006, when they had the 4th best sacks allowed rate in the league, and that improved the following two years to finish 1st and 2nd, and in 2008 in particular, they had a sack rate that was half of what it was in 2006? Yet, how do we explain that drop off from the team? If getting better production from their OL in 2007 and 2008, how do we explain the fact that they didn't have a winning record or make the playoffs. Maybe it has to do with the defense. In 2006, their defensive ANYA was ranked 20th in the NFL. Not particularly good, but when your offense's ANYA is the 3rd best in the league, it can certainly compensate. Then in 2007, their defensive ANYA fell to dead last in the NFL. Their offensive ANYA also fell to 9th. Why is that? Not because the OL did a worse job. It's because they got behind in a lot more games, and thus Brees was forced to throw a lot more (554 attempts in 2006 to 652 in 2007) and thus he threw more picks (11 to 18). Clearly, the improvement from the OL didn't really help them there.

Then in 2008, their offensive ANYA rebounded back to 2nd in the league, and it probably had to do more with their defensive ANYA rebounding back to 18th in the league than the improvement they saw on the offensive line. But they lost too many close games (3-6 in 1-score games), and thus finished 8-8 that year.

Then in 2009, they once again killed it offensively (2nd best ANYA), and their defense shot up to 8th best ANYA, and they won a Super Bowl. Oh, and BTW, their OL play reverted back to their 2006 level in giving up more sacks than they did in 2007 and 2008.

I want to be clear in case you're confused. I too want to improve the offensive line. I want to see Matt Ryan to get protected by talented players like Nate Solder, Jahri Evans, Logan Mankins, Sebastian Vollmer, and Carl Nicks. I want to see this offense with Ryan, Julio, and a good OL that can both protect the QB and clear running lanes like the Pats and Saints have done in the years where they've been really good.

But the priority must be the defense if the goal is to win a title. There is NO ARGUMENT to be made that a good OL > good defense in terms of helping teams win at the highest levels. The evidence clearly shows that having a good defense is more impactful than having a good OL.

Now if you're of the mindset where you want to go to/watch the games and the Falcons offense just lights up the scoreboard every week and wins 38-35 or 35-31, then obviously the OL is the way to go there.

But I can tell you exactly how that plays out. They'll be games just like that, where the Falcons put up a ton of points, but in the 2nd halves of those games teams will come back on them. They'll go up 24-7 at halftime, and then in the 2nd half when the other team gets the ball and starts dropping back to throw every down, because they don't have a pass rush, even if Alford/Trufant are the best corners in the league, they can't cover for 4 seconds, and thus that QB is going to have all time to throw. And then it'll be 24-14. Then the Falcons will get the ball and go down and score, pushing the lead to 31-14. But then it's 31-21 as the 4th quarter begins. And then the Falcons try to run the ball, and go 3 & out. And then the opponent goes right down the field and scores, and now it's 31-28. And RobertAP is screaming how the Falcons lack killer instinct and how they have all these weapons and why are they going conservative. Then Matt Ryan scrapes them together and they get 1 more TD.

And then there will be games where they decide to throw it instead of running it, and Ryan throws a pick (like he did vs. the Seahawks last January).

And again, you have to factor in the premium placed on pass rushers.

From 2003-12, there were 8 defensive linemen/3-4 outside linebackers drafted in the Top 15 picks and have had 2 or more seasons of 10+ sacks. That is also the same number of players drafted between Rounds 3 and 7.

But remember, there have been 43 such players drafted in the Top 15 picks over that 10-year period. Meaning the chances you find the next Chris Long, Terrell Suggs, Mario Williams, DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller, or Kevin Williams is about 18.6% when you draft in the Top 15.

For Rounds 3-7, there have been roughly 325 such players. Meaning you have about a 2.5% to find the next Jared Allen, Elvis Dumervil, Charles Johnson, Robert Mathis, Shaun Phillips, or Trent Cole.

Again, the chances you find a premium pass rusher is about 8x higher when drafting in the Top 15 picks than after Round 2.

Now look at the breakdown of the Top 16 currently highest graded OGs in the NFL (per Pro Football Focus)

1st round picks = 2
2nd round picks = 2
3rd round picks = 7
4th round picks = 2
6th round picks = 2
undrafted = 1

Here's the left tackles BTW:

1st round = 9
2nd round = 3
4th round = 1
7th round = 1
undrafted = 2

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:33 am 
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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:37 am 
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backnblack wrote:
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f*** you and your Goddamned Stats! Why do you hate the Falcons? 8-)

*noted. #gotmyasskickedonthisone

:doh:

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:42 am 
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Also interesting that you initially mentioned the Saints and then edited them out of your post.

so the almighty Pudge DOES see our goings on 'behind the screen; ;-)

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8-)

"I want to believe" 8-)

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:40 am 
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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:47 am 
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Khalil Mack would be nice if we don't end up in the top 3-4, has the potential to be a dominant player imho.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 2:43 am 
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I'm betting between now and next May, there is going to be another top-end defensive player that will move into the Top 5-7 pick conversation besides Clowney and Barr.

Look, on February 11 of last year, Rob Rang (who is the CBS Sports version of Mel Kiper) projected Dion Jordan to be the Falcons pick at No. 30. Of course Jordan wound up going 3rd overall. By this point last year, very few people had ever even heard of Ezekial Ansah. He wound up being the 5th overall pick.

We can debate this back and forth til we're all blue in the face. But at the end of the day, you pick players, not positions.

We see it time and time again, that when teams make significant leaps up or down from year to year, it almost always coincides with major changes in QB play and/or defense. see 2013 Saints.

Now I don't expect the Falcons to suddenly make that sort of turnaround even if they get the next J.J. Watt or Von Miller next May. That's one of the reasons why I believe Dimitroff deserves two years to turn this thing around and acquire the pieces necessary to make this team a legit title contender that is both balanced on offense and can play good enough defense to win on the road in January.

If you want this Falcon team to make a great leap forward, it has to be based on defense, since we're getting for the most part excellent QB play. The glass is already 5/6ths full or whatever. You might get that, a la the season Aaron Rodgers had in 2011 or Brady in '07, but those are more anomalies than realistic goals.

The way RobertAP feels about the offensive line, is EXACTLY how I feel about the defensive line and the pass rush. I'm tired of the suckiness. I want to see the next decade here in Atlanta like the last decade for the Giants in terms of their DL/pass rush, where it's a pipeline of talent in and out every year.

People talk about TD neglecting the OL, but his neglect of the DL is far worse. You can draft OLs in the 3rd-7th rounds and reasonably expect to find a couple of starters. That's not neglect. That's just subpar execution, but the effort is clearly there.

But if you think you're going to build a successful DL that way with 3rd-7th round picks, then you're simply crazy. You can certainly build up a good rotation that way, but the odds you find a top-end starter are extremely low. And if you want to be a good pass rush, you need top-end starters. You need guys that can beat 1 on 1 blocks and draw double teams that open up opportunities for other guys to beat 1 on 1 blocks. Peria Jerry is the only guy.

But all that is in the past, and now we have to move forward. And I hope TD realizes he needs to get a defensive stud. And if there's nobody worthy when we pick in the Top 10, then he needs to try and trade down to get someone in the middle of the round and hopefully pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd and help address these other issues that plague this team such as the OL.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:20 am 
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Pudge wrote:
I'm betting between now and next May, there is going to be another top-end defensive player that will move into the Top 5-7 pick conversation besides Clowney and Barr.

Look, on February 11 of last year, Rob Rang (who is the CBS Sports version of Mel Kiper) projected Dion Jordan to be the Falcons pick at No. 30. Of course Jordan wound up going 3rd overall. By this point last year, very few people had ever even heard of Ezekial Ansah. He wound up being the 5th overall pick.

We can debate this back and forth til we're all blue in the face. But at the end of the day, you pick players, not positions.

We see it time and time again, that when teams make significant leaps up or down from year to year, it almost always coincides with major changes in QB play and/or defense. see 2013 Saints.

Now I don't expect the Falcons to suddenly make that sort of turnaround even if they get the next J.J. Watt or Von Miller next May. That's one of the reasons why I believe Dimitroff deserves two years to turn this thing around and acquire the pieces necessary to make this team a legit title contender that is both balanced on offense and can play good enough defense to win on the road in January.

If you want this Falcon team to make a great leap forward, it has to be based on defense, since we're getting for the most part excellent QB play. The glass is already 5/6ths full or whatever. You might get that, a la the season Aaron Rodgers had in 2011 or Brady in '07, but those are more anomalies than realistic goals.

The way RobertAP feels about the offensive line, is EXACTLY how I feel about the defensive line and the pass rush. I'm tired of the suckiness. I want to see the next decade here in Atlanta like the last decade for the Giants in terms of their DL/pass rush, where it's a pipeline of talent in and out every year.

People talk about TD neglecting the OL, but his neglect of the DL is far worse. You can draft OLs in the 3rd-7th rounds and reasonably expect to find a couple of starters. That's not neglect. That's just subpar execution, but the effort is clearly there.

But if you think you're going to build a successful DL that way with 3rd-7th round picks, then you're simply crazy. You can certainly build up a good rotation that way, but the odds you find a top-end starter are extremely low. And if you want to be a good pass rush, you need top-end starters. You need guys that can beat 1 on 1 blocks and draw double teams that open up opportunities for other guys to beat 1 on 1 blocks. Peria Jerry is the only guy.

But all that is in the past, and now we have to move forward. And I hope TD realizes he needs to get a defensive stud. And if there's nobody worthy when we pick in the Top 10, then he needs to try and trade down to get someone in the middle of the round and hopefully pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd and help address these other issues that plague this team such as the OL.


Logical post, we need to focus more on either the best player available at our pick or getting value out of the pick by trading it down for more picks. I think there's something to be learned by looking at us vs. the Patriots this year. Two team who's starters looked equal on paper but who have both had catastrophic injuries. There past draft tendencies to stock up on high picks by the Pats despite many misses in the draft has left them in a position to weather the storm, where we are resorting to un-drafted players and prior failures from other teams to fill in. They still have a shot at the big prize and we are done. To make mistakes is human, to repeat them is a sign of stupidity. Let's learn from our errors and think long term draft wise going forward.

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 Post subject: Re: How do you right this ship? 2014 and beyond
PostPosted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 4:09 am 
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Pudge wrote:
The way RobertAP feels about the offensive line, is EXACTLY how I feel about the defensive line and the pass rush. I'm tired of the suckiness. I want to see the next decade here in Atlanta like the last decade for the Giants in terms of their DL/pass rush, where it's a pipeline of talent in and out every year.

People talk about TD neglecting the OL, but his neglect of the DL is far worse. You can draft OLs in the 3rd-7th rounds and reasonably expect to find a couple of starters. That's not neglect. That's just subpar execution, but the effort is clearly there.

Wait a tick there buddy... I've been saying all along that the LINES are our weakness. I'm not happy with the defensive line either, that's why I have been saying (repeatedly throughout this thread) that I think we should use our 1st rounder on a defensive line player.

Now, I've been quite adamant about the play of the OL this year because it has been god awful. In the past, it fair to middling, but this year, it just sucks. They have had a few good moments, but on the whole, the OL has been junk. That said, the OL is propped up a bit by our skill position players. Matt Ryan, Tony G, and Harry D have stepped it up this year. (though Matt has been a bit off for the past couple of weeks)

The DL has played better than the OL thus far, but we don't have superstars on the defense helping to prop the DL up. We are starting four rookies behind that weak DL. That's why I've been saying, "Clowney or Nix." You even went as far as to point out that Nose Guards aren't that important. Fun Gus has been the one pushing OL in the 1st.

I happen to think that we're going to be in a perfect spot to pick up a road grading guard with our second round pick, but as you said, "It's a long way till April."

I say this every year, but I really wouldn't mind too much if we used all of our picks on the OL and DL. That said, we could use a starting TE, some WR depth, and some safety depth.


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