I realize that stats can be used to say just about anything, but of course the one you just quoted is somewhat laughable. Not much difference in behind the line and on the line or a few inches over the line. The bottom line is when he carries the football, he doesn't carry it very far.
Good spin. When I point out stats that easily negate your statement, then of course you say it really doesn't matter. It's a technique I've used a few times when people pointed out I was wrong.
About 300 yards of his 380 yards rushing came on passing downs, where the opposing defense was in a pass defense, not a rush defense....most of the time it was 2nd down and +6-11 yards to go....
Here's some more stats, so let's see how you spin this in your response. I broke down the Falcons run vs. pass tendencies on every down and situation.
Since the Falcons ran the ball 54% of the time last year, it's too cut and dry to say that if they ran the ball 51% of more in a certain situation, it was a running situation for them. So I basically indicated that if the team ran the ball 60% of time in a certain situation, it was a running situation for them. If they passsed the ball 50% or more, it was a passing situation. If it was in between, it was a mixed situation.
As it broke down, 8 of Duckett's 121 (7%) carries came in these passing situations vs. 48 in run sitches (39.7%), and 65 (53.7%) in mixed situations.
Now, I will agree that Duckett's rushing totals on rushing downs was poor (1.5 ypc vs. 5.1 in passing situations).
I'm going to keep repeating this statistic because I think people are dismissing it too easily.
5 for 6 on 3rd & short (less than 3 yards) success rate in getting 1st downs. That's what Duckett was through the first 9 weeks of 2005. That is a mark that only a handful of players in the league approached, as seen here
Yes, Duckett was only 1 of 5 over the last 5 weeks of the year in the same situation, which was poor. But you won't hear me dispute that the Duckett we saw last December was a bad player. But it is my firm belief that the Duckett of December '05 is not the "normal" T.J. Duckett. It's the tale of 2 Ducketts.
TJ makes his rep on running the ball in from the one yard line, something any back in the NFL can and should do behind an MVP line such as ours.
If it's so easy, then why were only a dozen or so RBs more than 50% successful in such situations last year? Cited here
I'm not here to say Duckett is a great running back. But I'm here to say that in his role as a short-yardage and goalline runner, he's very good. I believe among the best in the league, and that has to count for something. To say he is "horrible" as you put it, is a ridiculous exaggeration.
I agree that statistics can be used to support almost any argument or claim. But there are certain times where stats are a pretty clear indicator of a certain argument as being the stronger one. And I believe this one of those times.
There is two different T.J. Ducketts: the Sept./Oct. Duckett and the December Duckett. IMHO, the "normal" Duckett is the Sept./Oct. version.
If it's so easy to score from the 1-yard line behind our "MVP" line, how come Warrick Dunn's success doesn't approach Duckett's? In blank down & goal situations, Dunn has scored 6 times on 30 carries (20%), while Duckett has scored 12 times in 24 carries (50%) over the past 2 years.
He doesn't sound too horrible when he ranks in the Top 20 in either his conference or in the entire league, where in a league with about 100 RBs around, it makes him in the 60th, 70th, or even 80th percentile in several rushing categories. Doesn't sound like a horrible back to me. But oh, we can simply dismiss it as his stats are only as good as they are because he plays behind an "MVP" line.
Once again you are talking about the past and i am talking about a specific player...I think when Duck leaves next year, we will get at least a 4th rounder. Do you know how it works Pudge???? The awarded compensatory picks aren't for specific players, but a somewhat complicated formular.
Taking into account free agents lost, free agents gained,player performance and value of the contracts.So it isn't based on the contract the player signed.When you think some players such as Tom Brady and Larry Allen were chosen with Comp. picks it makes me feel rather good that we will get something. Of course if Schaub does leave and I don't think he will, then that means even more bounty.We didn't receive many comp. picks because we were signing free agents as well, which threw off the balance of the compensatory system.
The compensatory picks are awarded annually by the Management Council, the league's labor arm, under an esoteric computation more difficult to crack than the formula for McDonald's secret Big Mac sauce. The formula is said to be based on salary, playing time and postseason honors and not every player gained or lost by a team in free agency is covered.
So since this is such a complicated formula, that I would have little idea of how it works, then please explain this complicated formula to us. Enlighten me how you cracked this formula in order to discover that we will get at least a 4th round pick for Duckett.
The awarded compensatory picks aren't for specific players, but a somewhat complicated formular.
You're the one who said that we'd get a 4th rounder for Duckett. Seemed pretty specific in that insight.
If you look at the teams awarded 4th round picks over recent drafts, all of them have suffered net losses of starters
in an off-season before they received such high compensation. And the majority of those starters signed big contracts elsewhere
Knowing that info, what it is about a horrible player like T.J. Duckett that leads you to believe that he will get both a big contract and that he's a starter worthy of being highly regarded by the mysterious NFL formula?
Now if you were to say the Falcons could get a 4th rounder if any combination of the following players were lost this off-season: Kerney, Griffith, McClure, Weiner, I wouldn't disagree with you. Based on the # of starts they see, their current salaries, and the likelihood that they can/will see higher salaries in their next contracts, my believe is we could net a 4th round pick if we lost any combination of those 4 players. But without cracking the code, I would wager at best that if we lost just Duckett, it would factor into a 6th round compensatory pick at best. But again that's speculation, the same speculation you used when you said 4th round pick.