Here are the pass/run ratios of the possible playoff teams!

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Here are the pass/run ratios of the possible playoff teams!

Postby thescout » Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:27 pm

I was interested to see what the ratios of pass vs run for the top playoff contenders.I left off San Diego and Philly.We already know philly's is terrible and I can always go back and add San Diego's later. This is in no specific order and is one variable hence an extremely important won come playoff time.Let me also say that just because a team doesn't have the 45-50% pass 45-55% run doesn't mean they can't beat a more balanced team in the playoffs or the season.It just means the super bowl winner over 90% of the time had the correct ratio vs the other team.If your team doesn't have a ratio that fits the theory then they could still end up in the super bowl but very unlikely lose in the super bowl.

pass % run%

1.Pittsburgh 40 58
2.Pats 60 39
3.Colts 48 52
4.Giants 54 45
5.Denver 48 51
6.Jaguers 49 50
7.Seattle 42 57
8.Atlanta 42 58
9.Carolina 49 50
10.Chicago 49 50
11.Rams 61 38
12.Redskins 53 46


Let me repeat just because your team doesn't fall in the 45-55% pass vs 45-55% run doesn't mean you can't get to the super bowl but more than likely your not going to win.Why do I say because going back to 1994 the super bowl winner had over 90% of the time a pass vs run ratio of that.Sure there are more variables but I am keeping it at its simplist form.If there was a better predictor over 90% as a variable then I would like to see it to prove this theory wrong but I haven't seen it yet.

Interestingly enough looking at the current pass vs run ratios teams like pitt and the patriots won't be winning a super bowl.To say that the redskins have a better chance to win a super bowl since they have the better pass to run ratio I would never bet on it but that is what the theory says.If I was a betting man I would easily bet pats or pittsburgh to beat the redskins but again they more than likely won't win the super bowl!

You'll notice the Carolina panthers have a good pass/run ratio the Colts,Denver,Jaguers.The Falcon's need to improve on there number to win a super bowl.I rounded the numbers off so they don't always 100% in case your wondering why it doesn't equal that.You might think this theory is BS thats good your entitled to your opinion but this is the theory I am going with since it has a high prediction of the super bowl winner.If the falcon's are trying to win a super bowl I would keep these stats in mind to win.Now if we are just happy to be there then will continue to run run pas and see if we can run through all the defenses in the playoffs just like we do in the regular season.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Fri Nov 04, 2005 11:06 pm

Funny the teams that are basically a lock to make it (Seattle, Atlanta, Pitt, Indy) all run more than they pass....

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One thing to add!

Postby thescout » Fri Nov 04, 2005 11:46 pm

The more balanced team won the Super Bowl about 90% of time.Show me another variable that predicts the Super Bowl winner with a rate over 90% and I'll change my mind.
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Is making it enough or winning it(super Bowl)?

Postby thescout » Fri Nov 04, 2005 11:47 pm

Your right alot of good teams run the ball more than pass but will it matter in the end? Do the Falcon's want to be the Atlanta Braves making it every year or win super bowls?
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Postby MadBirdMike » Fri Nov 04, 2005 11:58 pm

Question, does this ratio hold true over the season, or is this just Super Bowl stats?

In other words, did the bowl winner have the same ratio all season including the bowl win, or did they change their strategy in the bowl?

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Sat Nov 05, 2005 1:25 am

I think we are reaching too far in regard to stats to justify a possible Super Bowl run.

A good defense and a consistence offense is what you. It doesn't matter how many times a team passes or runs the ball. If a team is bad against the run you'll run it 55% of the time if they are bad against the pass they will pass it 55% of the time.

The key in the NFL is balance on offense. The ability to throw as well as you can run. You may have a dominate unit but the other must be good enough to change things up. The play call percentage is not indictive of a teams Super Bowl chances.
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Postby Pudge » Sat Nov 05, 2005 9:03 am

Even though it was my stats that thescout is citing, I tend to agree with dirtybird in that we don't necessarily have to do this or that statistically to get to the Super Bowl.

I don't think this team has to throw the ball more, but just needs to do it more consistently when they throw. Let's compare the Seahawks and Falcons, who based on scout's numbers are about even in their pass/run ratio.

Passing Efficiency (Passing 1st Downs vs. Attempts)
Seahawks: 36.1%%
Falcons: 29.5%

Completion%
Seahawks: 64.1%
Falcons: 50.9%

1st Down % on 3rd Downs Passing:
Seahawks: 31.5%
Falcons: 25% (ranked 31st in the league)

1st Half QB rating:
Seahawks: 97.2 (8th in the league)
Falcons: 71.6 (27th in the league)

Big PLay Passes (over 25 yards)
Seahawks: 11
Falcons: 5 (tied for 31st in the league)

These are just some of the areas that show the Seahawks are a much more consistent throwing football team than us. And that's why they could potentially have much greater success offensively in the postseason. NOw, the Seahawks aren't killing us in all passing categories, but just the vast majority.

But I think it's all moot at this point whatever we do offensively. Because unless our defense can consistently play like it did against New York and Minnesota, meaning be aggressive, create turnovers, rack up sacks, and stop the run, then it's not going to matter what we do on the opposite side of the ball.
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Postby mickvick302 » Sat Nov 05, 2005 9:23 am

The_Incomparable wrote:Funny the teams that are basically a lock to make it (Seattle, Atlanta, Pitt, Indy) all run more than they pass....


I dont understand how you can say it's a lock for us...we have a really tough schedule ahead of us, with the giants, packers, bucsX2, and CarolinaX2
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Postby Steve-O » Sat Nov 05, 2005 1:03 pm

I think we are far from a lock...I think the division is totally up for grabs right now...if TB can get the offense back on track they will be tough to deal with...and Steve Smith and the Panthers scare me even though they've never beaten us with Vick before...

I think we stand as good of a chance as the next guy, but we are still miles away from being a lock...

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Let me chime in for a few comments

Postby thescout » Sat Nov 05, 2005 1:19 pm

First,I neglectd to say yes the stats are from pudge's analysis at the begining of the season,although public records of course but thanks Pudge for doing the home work on this.Second,no this doesn't mean any team that has a bad ratio won't make it to the Super Bowl but as far as I can tell it does mean alot if your in the Super Bowl trying to predict who may win it,and of course no threory is infalable.Third if I am a team like the Falcon's I would worry about the pass/run ratio since as we se most of the time teams that have won the Super Bowl are close to the 50/50 ratio.That is also why I have my doubts that other teams like the Steelers and Patriots,yes the patriots can win it this year.The Patriots I do hope win it all if the falcon's don't but it doesn't look that way this season.

Pudge,you may have answered this earlier no any websites where I can get records of all the playoff game scores and the stats of the teams such as the run/pass ratio for the entire season?

Another point looking at the run/pass ratio no way would I take the redskins over the steelers or patriots even though they have a better ratio.so you see this really only applies to winning the super bowl not individual games in the season.As I said before you can take this with a grain of salt or realize there must be something to this theory if you play it by the numbers to win super bowls.
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Dirtybird this is only one variable

Postby thescout » Sat Nov 05, 2005 1:32 pm

There can be alot of other factors on winning the super bowl like how strong is your defense but the 90% is a strong indicator who may be the super bowl champion if you only had to choose one factor in winning the game.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:49 pm

mickvick302 wrote:
The_Incomparable wrote:Funny the teams that are basically a lock to make it (Seattle, Atlanta, Pitt, Indy) all run more than they pass....


I dont understand how you can say it's a lock for us...we have a really tough schedule ahead of us, with the giants, packers, bucsX2, and CarolinaX2



It's a lock. Running teams do not fall to pieces like passing teams do. Barring a couple VERY serious injuries, it is a lock.

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Postby Pudge » Sat Nov 05, 2005 5:13 pm

I looked at the remaining schedules for the Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, and Cowboys, and I predicted that the Falcons and Panthers will both finish 11-5, Giants 10-6, and Cowboys and Bucs 9-7. So we're no lock, but I do agree that we have a better shot than most.

In the next few days, I think I'll look at the Eagles, Redskins, and Rams remaining schedules, since really those are the only other teams that potentially could knock us out of a playoff contention, assuming a team like Detroit or somebody don't go on to have a magnificent second half of the season (and win like 6 or more games).
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Postby MadBirdMike » Sat Nov 05, 2005 10:31 pm

Pudge wrote:I looked at the remaining schedules for the Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, and Cowboys, and I predicted that the Falcons and Panthers will both finish 11-5, Giants 10-6, and Cowboys and Bucs 9-7. So we're no lock, but I do agree that we have a better shot than most.

In the next few days, I think I'll look at the Eagles, Redskins, and Rams remaining schedules, since really those are the only other teams that potentially could knock us out of a playoff contention, assuming a team like Detroit or somebody don't go on to have a magnificent second half of the season (and win like 6 or more games).


Yeah, theres always that one also ran that really takes off in the second half as the others attempt to coast and save their players from injury. Last year, Seattle, St Louis. This year, who knows.


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