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Can't say i agree, but the mob usually knows more than the average Joe.

I think the problem with the Falcons from an outside perspective, is how much improvement did they make? They basically are bringing back the same team. Other than a potential upgrade at RG and LCB, what is really different about the team? Jones should improve, but other than that you're probably not going to get night and day improvements, unless you think Ray Edwards is going to have a monster year (and he never has had one, so why then would you expect that). What you have is a good team, but one that doesn't really stand out in any way. They are just solid across the board, and feel like a 9 or 10-win team.

I think TB is underrated by Vegas here. I really think that the influx of new energy by Schiano is going to make them the South's most dangerous team besides the Saints of course. And I think the Saints are overrated here. I think this whole Brees situation being drawn out, and the fact that they won't have their coach and driving force behind their offensive success will mean that this year's Saints team resemble more of the pre-2009 teams that were fairly one-sided. They do get credit for improving their LB corps, but other than that I don't see many strides made on defense so it's not like Spags has a ton to work with. I think they play a bunch of teams that are comfortable in a shootout this year, and without Payton roaming the sidelines, they won't have the clear-cut advantage in all of those games.

But I think the Bucs made the most improvements to their roster with getting V-Jax, Nicks, and Martin. I think all 3 of those players have the potential to make big impacts right away if the Bucs adopt a play-action based vertical offense. Defensively, they still need work, but I do think Eric Wright, Lavonte David, Mark Barron, and getting Gerald McCoy back will make that unit respectable. And that coupled with the fact that they have the softest schedule of the division, means that I think they could be a surprise wildcard team. If I had to put my money on any NFC team going from a losing record to a playoff spot this year, it woudl be the Bucs.

As for the Panthers, I don't see where they improved a ton. Kuechly should be a good pickup on defense, and Mike Tolbert and Joe Adams are nice pickups, but aren't likely to be huge improvements. I think Newton's play will probably be a bit more erratic, and there will be somewhat a sophomore slump. And they made marginal improvements at DT and CB, the two weakest positions on their roster. Not to mentioned, I've never really been enamored with Rivera & Co. as coaches. I think one of the major reasons why they didn't win as many games last year despite the solid play of Cammy Cam Cam is that they put way too much on his plate. And with their potential to have a strong running game, there really is no excuse. Had they taken a tact similar to the '08 Falcons, I think you could have seen that team add another 2 or 3 wins last year.

SO right now, I'm leaning...

Atlanta (10-6)
Tampa Bay (9-7)
New Orleans (8-8)
Carolina (7-9)

It's going to be a tough division this year for sure. With New Orleans with no coach, no Vilma and dickin' around with Brees, on paper they are due for a monumental collapse. History says Newton will have a sophmore jinx, but you never know. Rules are meant to be broken. The Bucs are the wild card, they've loaded up on talent, but some of the core are the same guys who quit last year. And they did quit.
As you said Pudge, the Falcons are solid, if not spectacular. Hopefully the new Coordinators can get more out of the talent we have here.

I can see this division getting won with a 9-7 record, with a few 8-8's and 7-9's closely behind.

Since when was Vegas ever right?

Marty Schottenheimer always said, if you get a qb to play in year two, as well as he played in year one then you've done great. I thought that was sorta BS, but for the most part he's right.



How do you think all those casinos were built?

hmmm... tempted at betting a ton on Carolina below 7.5. Don't see it at all! They are a 4-5 win team, and probably the worst in the division.

Same way as Hell: the greed and stupidity of others. You could say the same of a recent US administration as well. But that's off topic.

I think ATL has to be a playoff team, and a winning one, or there's going to be a wholesale change.Massive injuries might derail this, but even that speaks to TD's main issues as a GM: building viable depth and development.

Bucs aren't coming close to winning 8 games. They're defense is still in the pits.

If Julio & Matt Ryan are not the difference their won't be a difference!!

9 wins is about right for over/under.

Had they brought in an OC who people knew to be good, and FA OL, then I think it would be more like 10 or 10.5, but as Pudge said, they look a lot like last year.

Vegas has them within a game of all leaders in the NFC besides GB, which is probably correct. If you had to bet your house, would you bet they win 10 games or fewer? If it's fewer, or you have to consider it a long time, that's a good betting line.

Again, I think with a Sean Payton-esque coordinator, OL veterans acquired, and a TE or WR acquired...people would say "this is a different Falcons team" and the lines would have changed. But it looks like the Falcons are going to do roughly what they were doing with roughly the same players.