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Cuts and pick-ups are still coming, I understand, but who needs to have a breakout/monster year for the Falcons to win and win a playoff game or two?

Is is the obvious cast of characters? Or is it someone who just comes out of no-where?

Does Matt Ryan need to throw for 4500 and 33 td's?
Do Roddy and Julio need 1000+ and 10+ td's each?
Does Michael Turner need to turn back the hands of time and bull-rush for 1600+ and 15 scores?
Maybe Harry Douglas emerges from the shadows for 800+ and 8 scores?
Is it Asante picking off 9 or 10 passes?
The list can go on, but let's here what you guys think who it can or needs to be?

I'm going to go with Ray "look at my tight-ass underwear" Edwards. I'm not worried to much on the offensive side of the ball. We should score whether on land or by air. At least we should score enough to be in most games. On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary is improved, on paper anyway. The more I think about it, the more I like the Nolan hiring. Abe is going to be Abe and I think that if Edwards can generate consistent pressure week in and week out, that hopefully will put us over the top. With the secondary giving the fatties up front that splint second more to get at the qb, it should make all the difference int he world. Or at least I hope.

If anyone doesn't pick Ray Edwards, I would be shocked. Pass rush is one of the most important elements in the game and Edwards needs to start doing that. Other than whoever plays left tackle, I can't see any argument that would convince me that someone needs monster year not named Ray Edwards.

I agree with you Emmitt, but we'll see if people have different opinions.

Maybe PJ asserts himself? What if "Beerman" goes all Patrick Kerney? Lots of options, but I agree with Edwards.

Offense - JJ
Def - Ray Ray

One thing is for sure, TD better hope they turn out just as much as we all here do.

What do you consider a monster year from JJ?

1000 yards 10+ td's. I think if we're looking at Ryan over 4k and over 30 td's then both he and Rowdy could reach those numbers. I do think JJ has the metrics to be special, but he'll still only be in year 2. Plus we just don't know now about the pass game changes. You look a guy like AJ Green, that is about as polished as you're gonna be as a rookie. I'd like ideally for JJ to mentally be where he can let all that athletic swag hang out.

I don't see Jones having that many TDs, probably more along the lines of 8 or 9. Turner is going to get his fair share of TDs, which probably puts a cap on how many TDs Ryan will throw this year which is around 30-32.

As for the players I think, you can read the articles that will be posted on the site's front page this week and thru the end of the week.

I agree with Pudge on the JJ td projections. Not only will Turner take away options, but so will TG. In the red zone JJ could be the #4 option. I do think JJ will get a 1000 yards though .
Perhaps 1200 yards and 8 TD's is more likely. With that being said, I think Left Tackle is our biggest question mark. We have a solid qb, a throwing coordinator and one of the best receiving corps in the league. If Ryan can get time we are going to light up the scoreboard.

Though it's obvious, the player who needs to seem like he's having a monster year is Ryan. Whether that's from better OL, better schemes, or him getting better.
He needs to be throwing for 250+ yards most games, and have very few games with a passer rating under 80. We need a lot of games that look like 275-300 yards, 3TD, 1INT.

I think a lot of other guys can help, but Ryan having a monster year (not just in yards, but in passer rating, etc.) will be the best indicator of success.


On D, it's trickier. A monster year from anyone would be helpful, as we seldom have that. We need a monster DL year. That would make the biggest difference. I think they're hoping for the scheme to dictate more even distribution...5 guys with 4+ interceptions, 6 guys with 4+ sacks. That makes it trickier to guess.

I don't get why people so worried about Julio. If he's healthy all season, he puts around 1200 yards at least last year. I'm not worried about Julio at all, he started hitting his stride in December. The only thing Julio needs to work on is showing up in big games. He hasn't done very well in nationally broadcast games or even against talented teams.

I'm not worried about Julio. He'll get his. I just wonder about Julio and what he'll do this year. Last year, on 3rd downs, he wasn't much. IN the redzone, he wasn't much. And if you look at his most productive games, they usually came against weaker teams or when the Falcons were behind in games and thus he could pad his numbers with "empty" yards.

These factors are why the impact of Julio on the team last year was overblown by many just looking at his raw numbers. Now some of those issues I mentioned earlier weren't necessarily his fault, and coupled with the fact that he was a rookie is a valid excuse for many of those issues.

He'll be productive this year, and he won't be able to help but be productive. 70 catches, 1250 yards, and 10 TDs would have been his projected numbers over a full 16 games last year. That's a ridiculous stat-line. So at the very least we know Julio can put up great fantasy numbers. I don't think he's going to catch a ton of a touchdowns because he's not going to get that many redzone opportunities, and he probably won't be able to pad his numbers as easily against some of those bottom rung teams like he did last year with Indy, Tampa (with an improved secondary), J-ville, and Carolina. Not to mention, a WR catching 7 or 8 TDs is hard. And esp. on a team that already has 2 guys that have proven they can consistently put up that many TDs (Gonzo & Roddy). And then when you factor in if the Falcons offense is improved, and able to get those redzone opportunities, that will increase Turner's TDs rather than Julio's. You could see Turner go from 10 TDs to going back to 15 or 16 TDs in 2012.

Couple that with how many of Julio's TDs were big plays, if teams are firmly committed to preventing that big play (and they probably will be), it wouldn't surprise me if Jones only had 4 or 5 TDs this year. Think similar to DeSean Jackson and his inconsistent TD numbers because similarly he has relied on big plays to score points.

The issues aren't with Julio. It's about the coaching staff really developing an offense that can make him a consistent weapon, not just a guy that is asked to show up whenever Ryan gets bored throwing the ball to Roddy & Gonzo.

Julio has to learn to use his size. They essentially treated him like a "speed" receiver last year...more like a Desean Jackson. For him to be elite (and make the difference), he needs to use his size, more like a Plaxico, and more like Calvin Johnson and Fitzgerald. That means putting the ball up in the air when he's single covered, or even with a safety coming over, and letting Julio shield the defenders, and high point the ball.

He's a legit receiver now, but that's the step he needs to take (and Ryan needs to take in trusting it, and the scheme needs to take in relying on it.) That's how 1/2 of Detroit's offense works, how most of Cinci's works, and even how a lot of New Orlean's works. He needs to keep his legs under him, and always be ready to go up and pluck the ball.

They need to treat him more like Calvin Johnson (and he needs to be more like Calvin Johnson) than like Mike Wallace.

Heres where I'm gonna cross my fingers and hope you're wrong, but only hope in that Koetter isn't as dumb as MM. That kid is a red zone monster waiting to happen, and it only makes sense to start transitioning away from Gonzo and to JJ inside the 20. Who is covering a well placed fade on JJ? Now whether this occurs is up to Koetter now, so we're still sorta guessing.

Key word being waiting. You're right it would make sense for the Falcons to start transitioning away from others in the redzone, but they probably are not. When has this team really shown itself to be proactive like that? They should have made that transition last year, but they have opted to bring Turner and Gonzo back for 1 more year for some reason, and I'm sure it wasn't to not get reps/touches when in scoring position.


Agree, but I don't personally see any of that happening this year. That takes a certain mentaility on offense that I don't think Ryan has or this coaching staff. It could develop in future years, but probably not this year. Ryan has that sort of rapport with Gonzo, and you could argue he did with Roddy in 2008. But nowadays, probably not. I think if/when Gonzo moves on, you might start to see Ryan take more chances like that and allow his guys to make plays. But that sort of style of play seems to only come with young QBs who don't know any better or the older veterans who never learned (i.e. the gunslinger types).

That works in Cincy because of Dalton's youth and inexperience (similar to Ryan as a rookie), and the fact that the Bengals know/understand A.J. Green is their best weapon. Neither is the case here in Atlanta. Because the team has a ton of faith in guys like Turner, Gonzo, and Roddy, they're not going to take the chances of throwing balls up and letting Jones go and get them, at least in the sense that they won't embrace that style of offense like Cincy or Detroit has. Detroit has Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and Nate Burleson to turn to, so understandably they put a ton of eggs in Megatron's basket to make plays for them offensively. Plus, Stafford isn't the most cerebral QB, so asking him to c*** back and fire isn't as big an obstacle as it would be with Ryan, who is significantly more conservative with taking shots.

Now there may come a day when the Falcons mirror that with Turner, Gonzo gone, and Roddy on the decline that we may adopt/embrace that style of offense. But it's not going to be the case in 2012, and possibly never...

I think getting off to a fast start with Julio is so important......If they have some good connections quickly things may
be different than many think.......

Koetter is the wildcard!! We don't even know his personality? Did he take this job to be a puppet to Mike Smith or did
he make it clear he would use all the weapons he has? We don't know? If Matt Ryan is ready I just don't think that
Mike Smith's past performance will equal his future performance as Head Coach. My guess is no better or worse than anyone's; but Mike Smith knows we didn't get Matt Ryan then now Julio to just run the football. I just would believe Mike
Smith will show an understanding That Ryan's not still in his rookie stage; Julio should be better; and Turner less than he was.

Losing three times in the playoffs without any wins must sting; and I guess we can only hope Mike Smith will use everyone
according to their skills!!

I agree that they may not do it. However, I don't think it's just for teams without weapons, or Favre like QBs. Brees does this a lot with Colston, for example. Warner did it a lot with Boldin and Fitz. I feel like it's less gunslinging and more recognizing that a "big" WR should come down with a ball "up in the air" 60-80% of the time due to his positioning and height advantage, and the rest should be incomplete. Very few should be intercepted.

Again, I come back to a point I've made before. You can get a "size" receiver in the 2nd or 3rd. You can get a "speed" receiver in the 2nd and 3rd. If you want to get a receiver who can do both, you need to use both. If you're not going to use the 6'4 size, it's a bad move to pay for it with more money or a higher pick. And the only way to use size is to put the ball up high, and let the receiver shield the defenders. Otherwise, why did you pay so much extra to get the big guy? You should have taken a 5'10 190 lb speedster...they're usually more agile anyway.

Personally, I'm a big fan of the big receivers, but only if their size is used.

But both examples you used, their offenses centered around their QBs. That has not been the case yet in Atlanta, and probably won't be the case in 2012. As it's been discussed numerous times, you don't bring back Michael Turner at his price tag if the offense is going to be centered and revolve around Matt Ryan. The Falcons stress balance, which means they want half Ryan, half Turner. Arizona and New Orleans were all Warner and all Brees. Sure, NO isn't averse to running the ball (as we saw in 2009), but it usually comes in games when they're up 31-17 in the 4th quarter.

Again, those things could develop in 2013 and beyond because they won't have the "crutches" of Turner and Gonzo. But given Mike Smith's past proclivity, the Falcons will draft a TE and/or RB high in next year's draft, and/or sign a FA like Jonathan Stewart or Shonn Greene, and continue to be "balanced."

As I said last summer, I think last year should have been the transition year to the type of offense you're talking about. Given what they gave up for Jones, to justify that high price tag, it needed to be followed by this team centering their offense around Matt Ryan, Jones, and Roddy White. You're not going to snap your fingers and be a great team doing that, which is why you keep Turner/Gonzo for a year with Turner on the decline, and Gonzo about to retire in 2011. This year should be the year where the Falcons embrace the QB-centric/passing-first offense. And if the team had used 2012 and 2013 as their "baseline" years to build that type of offense. Then hopefully in 2014, when Julio & Roddy are in the final years of their contracts (i.e. their last shot), then all the things will come to fruition.

The Turner/Gonzo/Roddy offense has been there and done that. The Falcons don't quite understand that 2010 was their best and lost shot with that core team.

IMO, this is what the Giants did over the past 3 or so years since their 1st Super Bowl win which was to add weapons at WR (Nicks, Manningham, Cruz, Steve Smith, Travis Beckum, Ramses Barden, Jerrel Jernigan) and center the offense around Eli Manning. And that worked for them because their offense no longer centered around Bradshaw/Jacobs. It's not like they abandoned the run, but they didn't need the run to be a very good football team/offense because as we saw with Bradshaw/Jacobs they didn't really contribute for 90% of the season.

The Giants made that successful transition. The Falcons are not currently. And it's not to say the team will be bad in the meantime, but this is why I question the direction of this team going forward because I don't see championships on their horizons until the day arrives where they have transitioned to an offense where Matt Ryan is special. Ryan is good currently, but the offense is not conducive to allowing him to elevate his game to another level to make this team really special. And I don't think that's really possible if Michael Turner is your lead runner because his contributions to the passing game are among the worst of all starting RBs.

Ok. I thought you were saying that should only be done if Roddy/Tony were fading, and you therefore NEEDED to use Julio extra. I don't think that needs to be the case. I think you can have 4 good receivers, and still rely on a certain one or two to "go up" for balls.

But, if you're simply saying they're going to run too much, I agree.

I guess I'm saying, even if they stay balanced with the run...the passes to Julio need to be passes for tall receivers. Even if they're not going to use him a ton, they should at least use him to his strengths. I guess, similar to the Jets and Plaxico. They love to run, but they knew how you throw it to that guy.

This offense with the "put it up there" aspect has a legit shot. If they refuse that aspect with Roddy and Julio, it really is a bad move and defeats the purpose of those receivers. It's not about the number of targets they receive, but the types of targets. With the same amount of throws as last year, they can rely on Julio (and to lesser extent, Roddy) like a Fitz.

You're not wrong, but I don't think it applies to this team. Not some team that exists in the aether, I'm talking about this team. And for this team to embrace that sort of style of play, it will take a dramatic shift in philosophy.

As I said in the past, I think that sort of philosophy is one that is centered around scoring points. And you don't mind throwing 2 INTs, if it means you also threw 4 INTS. You look at Kurt Warner in '08, he threw INTs in 13 of the 20 games that he played that year. And the Cardinals were 6-7 when he threw a pick, and 6-1 when he did not. And clearly there is a correlation. And Mike Smith is not wrong for wanting to limit turnovers. But IMHO, he does so at the expense of making plays.

You look at the Falcons and their offensive DVOA over the past 4 years. They have ranked 10th, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in terms of variance, meaning they are the most consistent team on a week-to-week basis in terms of their offensive efficiency as measured by DVOA. But you look at the last 4 NFC Champions, and you see the Cardinals rank 19th, Saints 16th, Packers 16th, and Giants 11th in their respective seasons. Is that significant? I think so.

Because those teams operate on a risk-reward system. Those teams go through every game knowing that their best chance of winning rests on their QB's ability to throw them to victory. This leads to inconsistency during the regular season, but through the trials and tribulations of 16 weeks of regular season grit, they are battle-tested when it comes to playing in January. Those QBs have now "practiced" for 16 weeks of throwing their teams to victory, and when the lights come on in the playoffs, they are better prepared to be able to elevate their play to the appropriate level to have postseason success.

The Falcons on the other hand, are about consistency, and their QB managing games. So that their QB is now well-equipped or prepared to do what he needs to do to win in January. This is what I was referring to back in January when I spoke of the correlation/causality of how Mike Smith prepped and game-planned to why Matt Ryan played like a little bitch vs. the Giants.

I'm not sure 1 or 2 "throw up" balls for Julio per game is really enough. Maybe it is, and with all the consistency that the other guys provide, those 1 or 2 plays is enough to really give us that extra umph. But as with all things Julio, that will only be a complementary part of the offense. It's the cherry on top as opposed to the rich and creamy ice cream in the sundae. And from September till December, that might be more than enough. But come January, I don't think it will be. Because those playoff teams are going to have a guy like Nnamdi Asomugha or Charles Woodson, that they'll put on an island against Julio begging you to test them. And what will end up happening, is the Falcons will shirk from that challenge and go back to the old tried and true, consistent and conservative style of offense that will get them beat because it plays right into the hands of the opponent because it's going to much harder to sustain when you have Trent Cole, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, etc. up front that can stop/slow that style of offense down.

Will those 1 or 2 throws make this offense better? Certainly. But IMHO you're going to have to do much more if you want to be a championship caliber team. The Turners & Gonzos of the world should be the complements, not the core.

Well, I agree with all of this. This team is super low variance, which is a great way to win in the regular season, and a horrible way to win in the playoffs.

I agree they likely won't embrace the throw it up/back shoulder/etc. style of passing, but it should be obvious. And again, if they don't, why do they keep drafting tall WRs? Can you see any point of a tall WR if not to use that height? It's a well known natural fact that taller guys have less agility, 2 step burst, jukes etc (this is why you don't see corners above 6 ft often). WRs catch by either getting open, or by catching while not open. The speed guys do the first, the big guys do the second. Why would you take a guy designed to catch over people, and only throw to him in stride? It's a waste.

I agree we likely won't see this change, but I have a lot of trouble understanding why they put a premium on size if they aren't going to use it at all. It would be like if we kept getting light, 270 lb DTs, and then asking them to be 2 gappers. The skills and the style don't fit.

The reason I'll keep contending (until the season shows us) is Mike Smith knows the same ole stuff will not be acceptable!!

You can go back and see what he's done; but when he knows the offense needs to be better; more productive, and
have bigger plays I think he changes.

I mean if Coach Smith got a Mularkey look alike then he's finished.

Meanwhile while we talk about the Falcon's conservatism who is going to rush the Qb?

My personal bet is that like the rest of us they see all the potential in the world with Julio because he is indeed one of the elite WR prospects that have entered the league over the past decade, but I don't think they quite know how to implement a system that will allow him to reach that full potential.


The Falcons appear to be operating on the following principles:

1. Ray Edwards will become the player they paid for.
2. There will be little to no drop-off from John Abraham.
3. There will be significant improvement/contribution from the likes of Kroy Biermann, Lawrence Sidbury, Cliff Matthews, and/or Jonathan Massaquoi.
4. There will be significant improvement from the likes of Corey Peters/Peria Jerry.
5. Jonathan Babineaux will revert to his pre-2011 form.
6. Mike Nolan is an accomplished architect of blitz packages, making the team much more effective/efficient there.
7. The Falcons blitzes will be more effective because they now have 3 corners they can leave on islands, freeing up the safeties to be utilized more effectively.
8. Samuel's additon and Robinson's move will great upgrade those two spots, giving the team more time to get after the QB.

I'm not sure the Falcons believe all 8 of these things will come to fruition, but they probably believe that at least half of them will, and therefore while the Falcons pass defense may not be elite, it has the potential to be among the better in the league. If all 8 things do come to fruition, then it's possible the Falcons pass defense in 2012 could mirror that of the 2010 Packers.

Although again I'll point out if the Falcons had signed Mario Williams in conjunction with all of these other things, they would be in a much, much better position not only in 2012 but also in 2013 and beyond.

That's disheartening. Especially because there's no way you should spend 5 picks on a guy if you don't know how to use him. It's conceivably understandable if you fully utilize him. Otherwise, take you Denarius Moore's and your Little/Cobbs, and your TEs. Geez this is becoming ridiculous.