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Newton's mobility gave the Falcons some problems in this game. Will RG3 be the same?

This is going to be an interesting game. I thought Washington was the most likely to beat the Falcons after the Chargers win, boy was I wrong after today. With Carriker and Orakpo out, I'm expecting the offense to light it up. Hopefully Clabo gets his head out of his backside.

Defensive better be ready, this team is a juggernaut and Alfred Morris looks damn good.

DeAngelo Hall plays for the Redskins.

At least one Falcon receiver is putting up 100 next week.

Also at least one fight will break out.

Pretty simple to me - what's the OLine play like? If we play like we played the first three, with the injuries they have, we should have a pretty simple time of it. If they play like they played this week, it'll be very, very tight.

We are the better team but they do match up well against us. I'm thinking we win a shoot out 34-31

I think this is going to be a case of the Falcons simply having a superior offense vs. a broken defense. I would expect some early exchanges up and down the field but the Falcon defense will be able to take advantage of RGIII being a rookie and making mistakes.

While the Falcon defense hasn't been terribly stout this year they have been opportunistic. I would expect a couple INT's and maybe a fumble recovery against the RGIII's. That is what gives me the confidence for this final score: Atlanta 36, Washington 24

The only thing that really concerns me is that the Falcon offense seems to be disappearing for long stretches in the 2nd half. Is this the same old Falcon coaching staff that is unable to make halftime adjustments while the opposing team is able to compensate for short comings in the first half?

I haven't had an opportunity to watch or listen to any Falcon games this year since I'm getting married this Saturday. So my thoughts and opinions don't have a lot of detail behind them yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/foo ... n-the-nfl/

Redskins’ pass defense is the worst in the NFL

Posted by Brian Burke on September 27, 2012 at 11:46 am

Three weeks into the season and a new era for Washington Redskins football, and the story isn’t the hot rookie quarterback. Instead it’s the defense. We can all see that the Redskins pass defense has been terrible through the first three weeks of the season. Poor play and mounting injuries have taken their toll. But just how bad is the pass defense, and what does that mean for the Redskins’ prospects this season?

I’ve written that yards per pass attempt (YPA) is the single most reliably predictive statistic in NFL football. The Redskins rank dead last so far this season with 8.4 net YPA allowed. (Net means that sack yardage is included.) The NFL average so far this year is 6.4 net YPA and the standard deviation is about 1.1 YPA. Since 2000, when the NFL began digitizing its data, only twelve teams have had worse net YPA three weeks into a season.

Only one of those twelve finished with a winning record. That was the 2011 Patriots, who ended the regular season with a 13-3 record, aided by their prolific offense. The other eleven teams averaged just under six wins for the entire season.

The Redskins pass defense actually may be worse than it appears, for a couple reasons. First, the pass defense deficiencies have been obscured by their relatively high interception rate. You might think that that’s a good thing, and it is. Or I should say, it has been. Rarely do defensive interception rates persist throughout the season. The Redskins current interception rate is 3.5%, significantly higher than the league average of 2.7%, but it’s bound to regress. Interceptions are relatively rare and notoriously random, particularly from the defense’s perspective. They’re thrown by a quarterback more than they are taken by a defense.

Second, the Redskins’ opponents so far have been well below average when facing teams other than the Redskins. The Saints, Rams and Bengals have averaged only 5.4 net YPA in their six games against other opponents, a full yard per attempt below the league average. Even Drew Brees and the Saints offense has averaged only 5.9 net YPA in their two games against other opponents.

One of the team efficiency stats that does tend to persist is penalty rate. The Redskins lead the league in penalty yards per play, with 0.74. The average is nearly half that, at 0.45 yards per play. The bad news is that has been extremely costly so far, but the good news is that it could be fixable, at least more fixable than the secondary’s talent level in midseason.

The glass is half empty on offense too. Despite the promising play of Robert Griffin III, the three opposing defenses have allowed 7.2 net YPA when playing other teams compared to the Washington offense’s 6.8 net YPA average and a 6.4 net YPA league average. Griffin’s running is obviously an asset, and he’ll continue to improve as the season goes on, but early indications of success may be misleading. Later in the season, we’ll take a closer look at Griffin’s production and see how he fares against tougher opponents.

I want to see Turner shake Hall off him like he did in 2009 with absolutely no effort other than seeing his arrogant punk ass get burnt repeatedly.

I need to go back and watch tape, but from just looking at the numbers, Washington's offense is nearly on par with ours. Their defense is weak due to a poor secondary, but they have a pretty good run defense.

So this game has the makings of a shoot-out.

I think the key will be for us to get pressure on RG3. The Bengals did a very good job when Jordan Black replaced Trent Williams at LT, and RT Tyler Polumbus has struggled all year long. Williams came back this past week, so he should be a little bit better this week.

Pretty interesting that out of the four games, both blowouts have happened on the road. Falcons might be billing something on actually being a good road team but will see this week. Chris Owens is supposed to come back this week, I'm interested to see how he does.

I think that we'll take what we learned from the Panthers game and apply it this game. I expect us to aggressively attack RG333, but I think it would be wise to have Spoon or Nicholas spy him. We gave up 80+ yards to an unaccounted Cammy cam cam, we can't allow RG333 to do the same. Cammy cam cam wasn't really able to beat us with his arm. I suspect that RG333 won't be able to either. I predict a couple of picks, and a double digit victory.

Yeah, from what I've seen of Washington's wideouts over the years, I'm not really scared of them. Pierre Garcon is one of the more overrated WRs I've seen in recent seasons, namely because he's played with a pretty good QB for much of that time, and his production last year IMO is just Reason #94 of why WR production is largely hollow.

They aren't bad receivers. Garcon, Hankerson, Moss, Robinson, Morgan are 5 solid receivers. They just don't have the No. 1 guy that is going to really consistently going to beat man coverage. Down the road, one of them may emerge from the pack. Moss used to be that guy, and he would be the one guy that would give me pause going up against our weaker slot corners. McClain, Owens, and Franks. But the positive is that Moss hasn't been a major factor in their passing attack so far this year. He's just averaging 3.75 targets per game, and all but 3 of them have been throws shorter than 11 yards.

One of the issues the Falcons will have to face is that RG3 has been one of the better QBs under pressure this year. But the hope is that with all of the hits that RG3 has taken this year, eventually they start to accumulate and weigh on him this week.

After that tackle by Mark Barron, which was legit a spine buster I'm worried for RGIII health. I got a feeling Willy Mo is going to land a nice shot on him.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... ns-week-5/

3TFO: Falcons @ Redskins, Week 5
Trey Cunningham | 2012/10/05

This NFC showdown throws together two teams who’ve not met since 2009. In that contest the Jason Campbell-led Washington Redskins lost in Georgia to the Atlanta Falcons 31-17. There were a number of noteworthy events in that game involving players who will participate in Sunday’s game. Michael Turner trampled the defense for 166 yards, Fred Davis dropped a pass that turned into a pick-six and, most infamously, former Falcon DeAngelo Hall nearly got in a fight with current Falcon head coach Mike Smith.

Present circumstances find the undefeated Falcons fresh from a narrow escape at home against the division rival Carolina Panthers. The Redskins, sitting at 2-2, also barely escaped Tampa Bay last week with a victory, despite leading 21-6 at halftime. Led by Rookie of the Year candidate Robert Griffin III, the Redskins have beaten two other NFC South teams (the Buccaneers last week and a Week 1 upset over the New Orleans Saints), though neither of those opponents look anywhere near as good as the Matt Ryan-led Falcons, and both games came down to the final play.

With defensive issues on both sides (with Atlanta’s defense exposed last week), on paper this looks to be a shootout. Can RG3 and company upset this juggernaut and earn their first home victory since Week 2 of last year? Let’s take a look at some of the matchups that will be important in this contest.

Ryan Kerrigan vs. Tyson Clabo

One of the contests to keep an eye on will be sophomore LOLB Ryan Kerrigan versus veteran RT Tyson Clabo. Kerrigan is currently our highest rated 3-4 OLB. He leads this group in hurries (15) and is tied for the lead with Aldon Smith in hits (five), despite his teammate Brian Orakpo going down early in Week 2. Of his 39 rushes last week, he was blocked by a fullback, tight end, or running back nine times, doubled four times, chipped by a running back once (though he seemed to dodge a few other attempted chip blocks), and went unblocked twice (both resulting in hurries). It is rarely a good idea to try and block this man with anyone other than a lineman — watch Doug Martin’s futile attempt at 11:21 in the third quarter last week for one example. Therefore, Kerrigan will likely spend much of the afternoon against Clabo. It is possible he could switch sides occasionally, but the mere six snaps he spent not lined up left in the past three games suggests Jim Haslett won’ t do that often.

Clabo has been well above average ever since we started watching every play of every game in 2008. This is especially true in pass protection, as his lowest overall grade in this area was a stellar +10.7 in 2008. After giving up two sacks, a QB hit and two hurries in the first two games (with some of that coming against Denver’s Von Miller), he was solid the following week in San Diego. Clabo did have a meltdown last week, to surrender an alarming three sacks, five hurries and a hit. The former stud tackle will need to step up his game all day in order to keep Kerrigan out of Ryan’s.

John Abraham vs. Trent Williams and Tyler Polumbus

While the 13th overall pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, pass rusher John Abraham, may not be getting any younger he is still harassing signal-callers. In 2012 he has put them on the turf five times and hurred them seven more times. Though he primarily lines up as the right defensive end, he has not always won his individual matchups with left tackles this year. Denver’s Ryan Clady only coughed up a single hit to him, while Carolina’s Jordan Gross gave up nothing. The Falcons, however, allow the veteran to play both sides, including last week where he had more success in 24 of his 60 snaps on the left side. This week he will be up against one of the better pass blockers in the league, and one of the worst, so expect him to once again be moved.

Tackles Trent Williams and Tyler Polumbus will be responsible for protecting their prized rookie QB from Abraham. Williams, a fourth-overall draft pick, began to live up to his high draft price last year and has continued that level of play this year. While he only played 14 snaps in Week 3, he only allowed a single sack, three hurries, and a lone knockdown hit to Robert Quinn with 4:45 left in Week 2 that didn’t show up on the stat sheet because of a penalty. With Williams dominating the left side, Polumbus, who was supposed to be the backup to the oft-injured Jamaal Brown, has been a major liability on the other side. Although he was perfect in New Orleans in Week 1, the undrafted lineman has given up a sack, three hits and 10 further hurries since, with Chris Long especially having his way with Polumbus in Week 2. With two wildly different targets to choose from, it will be interesting to see if Abraham continues to play more on the right side or takes advantage of the glaring weakness on the offensive line’s left side.

Falcons Trio vs. Redskins Defense

While Matt Ryan has a slew of weapons, there is no doubt he prefers throwing to three specific individuals. They are, of course, future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez (26 catches), along with wideouts Roddy White (27 catches) and sophomore Julio Jones (16 catches), all of whom have three TD catches. They will be facing a defense that is 1-yard shy of giving up at least 300 yards passing to their first four opponents. It is quite possible the only thing that will stop this trio is themselves, as they have combined for seven dropped passes, including a TD pass Jones couldn’t haul in on MNF against the Broncos. Also aiding the Redskins is Jones’s hand injury — we don’t know the severity of it, but offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter admitted the second year receiver isn’t “100 percent”.

Gonzalez has beaten a slot cornerback, a safety, and a linebacker for scoring catches, so every Redskin defender needs to be careful. Rookie DB and current primary slot defender Richard Crawford would be a mismatch against the veteran playmaker. The safeties shouldn’t fare much better here. Reed Doughty’s coverage limitations haven’t been exposed yet this year but are well known (-9.8 coverage grade last year), while Madieu Williams, the only safety that’s started every game, has made some plays (like his pass breakup on Vincent Jackson at 11:52 in the first quarter last week), but has also played a role in allowing four TD passes. The lone scoring catch the aging Williams has given up when he was the sole defender responsible was the most egregious, a 33-yard TD to Lance Moore on fourth-and-10 that allowed the Saints back in the game. There’s also the strong possibility linebackers Perry Riley and London Fletcher end up covering Gonzalez here. Both have positive coverage grades through four games, but both have also given up a combined five TD passes.

Limiting explosive wide receivers Jones and White will be an even more difficult task. The Redskins weren’t afraid to leave Crawford on Vincent Jackson several times last week and were fortunate it didn’t cost them like it did in Week 3 when Andrew Hawkins burned the rookie for a 59-yard catch-and-run TD. However, logic dictates that Haslett will have his top two corners DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson following the two wideouts. Hall is currently tied at seventh place for most yards given up among CBs (268), with Tracy Porter and Dunta Robinson, but has still shown flashes of why he’s been to the Pro Bowl, with three passes defended and a pick that set up a TD last week. Wilson has fared better, on eight less targets than Hall (20), but has seemed especially vulnerable in the last two weeks where he got embarrassed by Armon Binns on a 48-yard TD pass and he gave up 123 yards last week despite defending two passes. The safeties also have to be aware at all times as White needed only two catches to burn Panthers’ safety Haruki Nakamura last week to the tune of 108 yards and a score. The Falcon’s passing attack is poised for a monster day, but can this maligned defense step up their game to help their squad pull off the upset? This matchup, perhaps more than the others, will help determine that answer.



Follow Trey on Twitter: @PFF_TreyC

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... ns-week-5/

ReFo: Falcons @ Redskins, Week 5
Ben Stockwell | 2012/10/08


Many had opined that it had to happen at some point, but the Falcons evaded that first loss of the season against the Redskins in the nation’s capital. They overcame a fourth-quarter deficit brought about by a busted coverage that gifted rookie signal-caller Kirk Cousins his first career touchdown pass in relief of an injured Robert Griffin III. The Falcons showed signs of the team that many people refuse to put faith in, but at the end of the day they overcame a slow day (if 345 passing yards can be characterized as slow) from the offense to get the win.

For Washington, this game was also a case of many people’s worst fears coming true as the Redskins were finally made to pay for Griffin running and getting into space against an NFL defense. A ferocious hit, which he didn’t need to take, knocked him out of the game in the third quarter. The Redskins may have scored a touchdown without him, but there is no doubt that a dimension of their offense was missing after he went out. The Redskins must find a way to maintain that dimension while reducing the number of hits that he takes. This game showed their ability to stick with the best teams in the league, but can they maintain this level of play if Griffin is lost to further big hits?

Atlanta – Three Performances of Note

Keeping up with the Jones

More than half of the Falcons’ passing game this week came courtesy of two players. In terms of targets, receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns both Tony Gonzalez (+3.8) and Julio Jones (+2.2) carried the load for the Falcons. Between them the two receivers went 23/29 for 217 yards and two scores, with the Redskins getting only a pair of pass defenses on passes targeted to Jones to get close to either receiver. Even after the catch the Redskins struggled to stay with Gonzalez and Jones as the Falcons’ dynamic duo for the day racked up a total of six missed tackles from Redskins’ coverage defenders on their combined 79 yards after the catch. That a player like Roddy White was relegated to a supporting role shows not only the development of Jones from last season, but also the scary depth of the Falcons. There probably isn’t a team in the league that can match-up with all of the Falcons’ receiving options if their pass rush fails to get to the quarterback, as the Redskins’ did in this game.

Sam Baker no Longer Quarterback Breaker?

The Falcons’ offensive line did a fine job in pass protection this week with only Todd McClure struggling in the passing game — he allowed four total pressures, including a sack and hurry, to Barry Cofield. Perhaps the most improved player on their offensive line, however, is left tackle Sam Baker. We worried in preseason that the loss of Will Svitek would hurt the Falcons if Baker didn’t improve on prior performances. That would have been the case but for the improvement that Baker has shown. He continued a solid start to the season with his best game of pass protection this season, as he yielded only a pair of hurries this week. Through five weeks of the 2012 season, Baker has allowed only 14 pressures and only three knockdowns (combined hits and sacks) of his quarterback on 230 pass block snaps. Those are far from All-Pro numbers, but as a comparison he allowed as many knockdowns and only two fewer pressures in his Week 2 start against the Eagles last season. There has been much talk of Baker struggling with injuries last season and his return to health, along with the associated upturn in performance, is a pleasure to see for Falcon fans.

Babineaux Bouncing Back?

Another Falcon who showed signs of a ‘bounce back’ this week was Jonathan Babineaux (+2.4), who has not had his best start to a season in Mike Nolan’s new hybrid defense. Babineaux may have recorded a sack in both Weeks 1 and 2 but had done little else on a positive note. He has particularly struggled in run defense, and was sporting a -4.7 overall grade entering Week 4. This week however, we saw the more impactful Babineaux that we are used to seeing. His run defense was more solid for the second week in a row — including a holding penalty against Trent Williams — but it was in the passing game where he was most active as Babineaux doubled his season sack count. He beat Kory Lichtensteiger to the inside for his first, and also collected a hurry in pursuit and another hit off of Lichtensteiger on a play where he smartly used John Abraham as a pick to get free to the outside. That hit came in a crucial situation as it forced a sailed pass from Redskins’ backup QB Kirk Cousins which was intercepted to end the game as a contest late in the fourth quarter. Atlanta will be keen to see more impact plays like this from Babineaux in the coming weeks.

Washington – Three Performances of Note

Mixed Bag in Passing Game

The Redskins’ passing game got a spark from an unexpected source in this game — few would have predicted before this game that a single pass from Kirk Cousins to Santana Moss would have accounted for nearly half of the Redskins’ passing yards and their only passing touchdown. Prior to his injury, Robert Griffin (+0.7) was as efficient as ever, with three drops robbing him of going 13/14 on his targeted passes. However, Pierre Garcon’s (-1.9 receiving) home debut did not yield the positive impact that would have been hoped for. Garcon was a factor in the running game and set a number of good blocks to help his running backs on outside rushes, but his work catching the football was poor.He dropped two of six passes aimed in his direction and accounted for only 24 receiving yards. He also added only 7 yards after the catch, and five of those were on a pass to get him back to the line of scrimmage for no gain. Outside of his 88-yard screen pass at the start of the season Garcon has missed two games and has failed to make a significant impact. Garcon will get time to feel his way back to full health, but questions over his consistency that were raised in Indianapolis will be raised fast, and loud, in Washington if things do not start to take an upturn in the next few weeks.

Jenkins Shows his Potential

There were some fears from Redskins fans that they would suffer from the loss of Adam Carriker to a seaso- ending injury, partly because former second-round pick Jarvis Jenkins may not be ready to contribute on his return from his own injury last season. Well, all he’s done since he entered the starting lineup in Week 3 is record an overall grade of +3.5 and register four stops and four hurries. Jenkins (+1.0) ensured a difficult game for Garrett Reynolds and Tyson Clabo on the right side of the Falcons’ offensive line in this game; He collected a stop for no gain to the outside of Clabo late in the third quarter to bring up a third down, and registered a pressure on Reynolds a couple of plays later to force a dumpoff that was dropped. He struggled off of the bench in the first two weeks, but the Redskins may have received an upgrade by losing Carriker to injury, as, at this stage, Jenkins looks like a better player to move forwards with at the left end spot in Jim Haslett’s defense.

Doing the dirty work for Morris

There is little doubt that the two stars for the Redskins’ offense this season have been Griffin and Mike Shanahan’s latest find in the late rounds at tailback, Alfred Morris (+2.9). Once again Morris was the beating-heart of the Redskins’ offense . He poated his second 100-yard game of the season and once again did a lot of work after contact (70 yards after contact on 18 carries). As ever in a Shanahan offense though, the running back isn’t the only star, as those around him do a lot of work to help him pick up those yards. Both guards had solid ground games (both earned +1.6 grades for run blocking) and there was some excellent blocking as well at the skill positions. We have already mentioned Garcon’s efforts (+1.5 run blocking) to balance his subpar work as a receiver, but there was also help from a pair of tight ends as Logan Paulsen (+1.5 run blocking) and Fred Davis (+1.1 run blocking) both chipped in as well. Davis in particular caught the eye with a first-quarter block that put Stephen Nicholas on the ground to spring a 16-yard carry for Morris. The Redskins have found their hot hand at running back and everybody else is putting in the hard graft to ensure the running game continues to drive this offense.

Game Notes

– This was the first week Ryan Kerrigan has struggled to lead the Redskins’ pass rush in Brian Orakpo’s absence. His pick-six was exceptional, but he recorded only one hurry outside of that play.

– How much did the Redskins’ pass rush struggle in this game? They only pressured Matt Ryan on 12 of his 54 drop-backs; only slightly more than one in five.

– The Falcons will want to re-consider making Joe Hawley a receiver in their offense. He dropped both passes targeted his way in this game.

PFF Game Ball

Notching up the 99th receiving touchdown of his career, Tony Gonzalez was seemingly invisible to the Redskins’ coverage unit. With only one incompletion on 14 passes targeted his way Gonzalez was the metronomic beat that kept the Falcons’ offense ticking.