Unrealistic metrics

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Pudge
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Unrealistic metrics

Postby Pudge » Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:46 pm

An "unrealistic metric" helped cost the Falcons a win today against one of the league's weakest fronts...


Falcons Short Yardage Rushing Success Rate today:

1st & 1 - Turner for 0 yards - FAIL!
3rd & 1 - Turner for -1 yards - FAIL!
2nd & 1 - Turner for 1 yard - SUCCESS!
2nd & 1 - Turner for -1 yards - FAIL!
3rd & 1 - Ryan sneak for 1 yard - SUCCESS!
1st & 5 - Turner for 0 yards - FAIL!
3rd & 1 - Turner for -1 yards. - FAIL!

Rushing: 2 of 7, 28.6% success rate


on Halloween, Pudge wrote:The Falcons are dead last in Football Outsiders power success which measures teams ability to convert on 3rd and 4th & short, as well as goal line situations. That's down from 22nd last year, when it was clear to all that we couldn't win in short yardage. The success of the passing game has really masked our inability to get the tough yards on the ground...

...I'm just saying if this season comes down to the Falcons needing to convert a 4th & 1 in the fourth quarter vs. anybody come January to try and continue a late drive/comeback, then the odds are stacked HEAVILY against the Falcons to pull it out.

fun gus wrote:cute...stats..Pudge.

Like Halloween , every Fall the same thing, "Football Outsiders= some unrealistic metric"
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby Confess_Jesus_Now » Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:00 pm

Honestly, they should be ashamed of themselves to not be able to pick up one yard in a crucial moment during a big game. 3rd and goal at the one should be a cakewalk for a team with championship hopes. There's no excuse for it and it has to be fixed before January.
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby backnblack » Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:08 pm

MR had us there to win with a virtually one dimensional offense and a defense that had forgotten how to tackle. Turner is done. He's been a great one but he is through. I realze the blocking was poor a bit but he is too slow and telegraphs what we are going to do when in the game. It does seem that a lot of the guys tighten up a bit versus NO but Matt is no longer the one. He had a great game.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby RobertAP » Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:36 pm

It cannot be fixed by January. There are two major problems. The first problem is that our RB has lost a a step. I believe I saw him trip over it on his way to a 1 yard loss. Or perhaps it was when he stopped in the backfield, waiting for Mughelli to part the Black & Gold sea. (He's not here anymore Turner)

Problem 2 is that our OL has been going down hill for the past several years. We had a great opportunity last year (and this year) to do something about that, but we used that opportunity to grab a WR. The problem isn't magically going to disappear from throwing mid to late round picks into the mix. I would sooner have two significant upgrades on the offensive line and have Kerry Meier catching passes. With an improved line, either Ryan would be able to have more time, or there would be more holes for Turner/Rodgers, or perhaps even both.

To me, Matt Ryan is going to be the one to make or break this team. Having a solid line to protect him should be our highest priority, above complementary pieces such as a WR who can stretch the field.

Please don't get me wrong, Julio Jones is a heck of a talent. But I don't think that Julio Jones has been the difference between us being 8-1 and having a worse record. I can tell you with confidence that if our line had been upgraded over the past two years, that the Falcons would have better than 7 rushes for -1 yards in short yardage situations today. It is very likely that our run game and passing game would have been considerably better if we had used the picks to upgrade the line.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby backnblack » Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:53 pm

The never ending argument...Funny ho wwhnever JJ comes out the O sputters. Konz, Blaylock, Baker, Johnson all fairly high picks, no? I just watch the Saints send out three backs--one of whom, BTW, was a very high draft pick who has been unable to dispense of the RB by committee approach--and they are all pretty successful. I would say most def that we would not be 8-1 without JJ. The three headed beast at receiver pos is who we are, like it or not. I don't think Matt was sacked any more than Brees today and he had enough time to take several shots long. But you are correct. The running problem cannot be totally fixed in season. Our inability to gain short yardage has been our Achilles Heel for the last couple of years...Saints last year, Giants last year, Saints today. Sure are a lot of teams that would love to swap places with us.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby Pudge » Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:39 pm

I'm still hopeful that Konz's introduction into the lineup, and with him and Clabo & Co. growing into a cohesive unit, maybe the Falcons will have a quasi-competent ground game come Christmas, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

But the O-line stinks. And the fact is that O-line play league-wide is down in recent years. There just aren't that many good O-lines, especially on the top teams around the league.

This line has played only 2 good games all year long (vs. KC & SD). They are routinely getting their butts handed to them by below average D-lines (OAK, CAR, NO). It's pathetic.
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby thescout » Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:20 pm

Every year we go through this the off line not being able to get push in short yardage. When will it ever end. TD get off your high horse and make some changes in the off season. I'm not convinced we have the players to do the job on the roster now.
Sometimes running the Mularkey offense makes me feel like I'm in a prison.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby Emmitt » Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:41 pm

Any chance Snelling would get some more opportunities? Is it just me or has McClure been bad this season? No idea whats the talk about Todd being considered for Pro Bowl.
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby backnblack » Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:42 pm

The histronic hyperbole here is laughable. We lose one game by four points and now we suck. :lol:

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby DaveWaz » Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:47 pm

Turner looked horrible today (again). I really think that he may even know be bellow Snelling and Rogers as a runner. I've always been a Turner supporter, but I think we should bench him starting next week. He also has horrible hands, and is useless in the passing game. We should run a two man split between Rogers and Snelling 60-40 Rogers to Snelling touch wise. It's over :cry:
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby RobertAP » Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:04 pm

First, no one is saying that we suck. MANY people have been saying all season long that our line sucks. People are not suddenly crawling out of the woodwork here, it's something that they've been saying for quite a while.

Yes, Turner is pretty bad at this point. I don't know about, "benched," but I'd sure like to see an offense drawn up that makes better use of Rodgers rather than lining up Turner + a FB and gaining 15 yards on 13 carries. Abysmal doesn't really cover it.

And as far as spending picks on linemen, most of our linemen are 3rd rounders, or worse. I don't know about you, but I wasn't horribly impressed with them going in... I'm certainly not more impressed now.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby DaveWaz » Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:08 pm

Nah Bench him. What does he do that either Rogers or Snelling don't? Heck, at this point Snelling might even be faster!!!
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby fun gus » Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:49 pm

Pudge wrote:An "unrealistic metric" helped cost the Falcons a win today against one of the league's weakest fronts...
:



If you need a 4th and 1, and you give it to Turner, well....duh.

Last week Quizz delivered 2 3rd down conversions when we needed it. If they are going to playcall Turner, instead of Quizz, Snelling or A Smith then it's unrealistic to think were going to get it done.


Quizz breaks off an 18 yard run, and then we ignore him for the rest of the game! Hey I know, let's give it to the Sta Puf RB! :roll:

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Hang this one on Dirk Diggler, more then the OL or Turner. :naughty:
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby Pudge » Mon Nov 12, 2012 3:39 pm

I hear what you're saying, but Quizz converts a 3rd & 6 and 3rd & 5 vs. Dallas as a receiver. He gets an 18-yard run on a 1st & 10 at the Saints 28.

Those are completely separate situations and require completely separate skillsets than those short-yardage situations.

The Saints aren't playing a 1st & goal at their own 5, or a 3rd & goal at their own 1 the same way they are playing that 1st & 10, or Dallas played those 3rd downs.

Koetter is open for criticism for how he handled those goalline situations. But it wouldn't be because he didn't go to Quizz in those situations. Quizz's 18-yard run was what? 4 wides, single back, off tackle? Yeah, you try running that play inside the 5 and see if that works. Plus, we only ran 8 plays the rest of the game after that run, none of which called for such a play to be run because 4 of those play-calls came inside the 10-yard line, and the other 4 came in the final 40 seconds of the game.
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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby thescout » Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:01 pm

Give Snelling a chance in short yardage. We don't have anythning to lose. He has more nimble feet than Turner and can get through the line quicker.
Sometimes running the Mularkey offense makes me feel like I'm in a prison.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby fun gus » Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:56 am

thescout wrote:Give Snelling a chance in short yardage. We don't have anythning to lose. He has more nimble feet than Turner and can get through the line quicker.



even though he got a boneheaded penalty on teams, I would give A Smith a chance.
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby backnblack » Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:09 pm

On the running play, did we pull the guard...just like we did on the running play at our 30 last year? We did pretty well with the quick snap sneak earlier in the game. When we had Warrick Dunn we had similar issues at the goal line. The one year when we were using TJ to pound it in seemed pretty effective. The little , darting runners like Dunn, Quizz will have trouble finding the space to do their thing. I don't think the play calling was bad on the goal line stand. They just didn't quite work out...execution if you will and a good play by the Saints. Turner simply doesn't explode to the line like lots of backs. I was looking at a picture of him the other day in a Chargers uniform and he looked like a different person. It seems he is eating his way out of the league. Clearly, this is his last year here but I wonder if he will play anywhere? He is a one dimenisonal player whose one dimension seems to have largely gone.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby RobertAP » Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:21 pm

It's not lack of execution, it's crappy linemen. Our offensive line has not been able to execute in short yardage situations for many years. It seems pretty silly to expect them to.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby Pudge » Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:08 am

I'm sure Turner will get another shot in the league. Whether he does anything with it remains to be seen. But some team always seems willing to give some over the hill RB a shot. Think Tomlinson in NY, Eddie George in Dallas, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Westbrook, Willie Parker, etc...
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Re: Unrealistic metrics

Postby Cyril » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:15 pm

I think we're remembering the good ole days 2008-2009 as better than they were..... We had all kind of penalties; and I don't think with "today's turner" they would look much better. They were better but Baker and Blaylock were maybe a little worse.

I think when they time Turner in the 40 and it comes in about .6 they may think about his value.
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