It is currently Sun Dec 21, 2014 4:25 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 15 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:26 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 5119
Falcons-Seahawks: Better record against better numbers
7:36 am January 11, 2013, by Mark Bradley



"There's nothing to sweat, guys. We'll dazzle 'em with analytics." (AP photo by Matt Slocum)

Two sets of numbers are at play in the run-up to Falcons-Seahawks. There are your basic W’s and L’s — quoth Bill Parcells: “In the NFL, you are what your record says you are” — and the Falcons were 13-3 in the regular season to Seattle’s 11-5. But more advanced analytics exist, and nearly all suggest that a road team with a lesser record and a rookie quarterback should win Sunday.

“On a play-to-play basis, Seattle has been a much better team that Atlanta,” said Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders. “That doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to play out on the field.”

“Back in 2010, when Atlanta was the No. 1 seed, all the advanced metrics said Green Bay was the No. 1 team in the NFC,” said Chase Stuart of Football Perspective. “Seattle fits that mold a little bit.”

The Falcons tied with Denver for the NFL’s best record. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Falcons were the league’s 10th-best team. Seattle was the best. Said McCown: “The Seahawks were top four in offense, top four in defense and top four in special teams.”

What of the Falcons’ glossy record? McCown: “They were the second-worst 13-win team ever.”

Stuart: “They’re different sides of the coin. Seattle was better than its record, and the Falcons weren’t as good as theirs.”

Some of this has to do with strength of schedule — “Atlanta had the 27th-hardest schedule in the (32-team) league,” McCown said — and some with the Falcons’ inability to win big while winning. In a Football Perspective post, Stuart pointed to the Simple Rating System employed by Pro-Football-Reference, where he used to work, that combines degree of difficulty with margin of victory and noted that Seattle ranks first in the NFC to the Falcons’ fifth.

Wrote Stuart: “This is just the second time such a matchup (where a team that won two more games than its opponent but finished five or more points worse in the SRS) has occurred in the last 10 years… and the first involved the 2010 Falcons (in the aforementioned 48-21 loss to Green Bay). In fact, this scenario has only unfolded five times since 1970.”

How did those first four games go? The team favored by advanced metrics lost twice, Stuart noted, but both bore asterisks: One was the Titans’ Music City Miracle kickoff return against Buffalo, and the other was a 1976 AFC title game victory by Oakland over Pittsburgh, which was missing both Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier.

About here, you might be saying: What do a bunch of pencil pushers know about a man’s game like football? Well, the older I get, the more fascinated I am by advanced analytics in all sports, and lately I’ve corresponded with enough analysts to know they don’t fit the profile of geeks gone wild. Said McCown: “We’re not living in our mother’s basement. We have our own houses.” (Although McCown’s personal blog is titled, archly enough, “From Mom’s Basement.”)

In November, the sabermetric baseball community was a-dither over the American League MVP balloting, which saw old-school numbers (Miguel Cabrera and his Triple Crown) trump new-age analytics (Mike Trout and his WAR total). As an interested layman, I see Falcons-Seahawks in that same vein. And, just for the record, I’d have voted for Trout.

McCown: “We project Seattle to win, but my personal feeling is that Atlanta will give them a close game. I think it will be low-scoring.”

Stuart: “I don’t think Atlanta is a bad team — it’s probably the eighth-best team in the league. I would agree that the passing game is better than it was in 2010, but from afar, this looks like the same average defense. Everyone thinks Seattle is really balanced, pretty good at everything, kind of like San Francisco last year … I think it’s a very, very close game, but I’d probably pick Seattle.”

But wait. Remember that part about the rookie quarterback? Russell Wilson isn’t to be confused with Aaron Rodgers just yet, is he?

Stuart: “I don’t think there’s that fear factor you get with (facing) other quarterbacks. So yes, Atlanta might be in a better position in that regard.”

OK. That makes me feel a bit better about my stated belief that these Falcons will win the Super Bowl. (In both advanced metrics and real life, you can’t win it all if you lose your first playoff game.) And what does Football Outsiders think of the Birds’ prospects?

McCown: “We give them a 7.1 percent chance (of winning the Super Bowl, which is sixth-best of the eight teams standing). Me, I’d say their chances are closer to 15 percent.”

:doh:

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:59 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 26136
Location: North Carolina
Honestly, I don't think the odds are that much better. If the Falcons were to make it to the Super Bowl, it would feel a lot like that '98 team. Where they beat a team that was basically on their level (San Francisco then, now Seattle), and then beat a better team in the NFC Championship (Minnesota then, presumably SF now, but if GB were to beat SF on Saturday night, I think they would have earned that distinction). Like it did in '98, I would then have renewed confidence in the team because they managed to overcome the odds, but in truth if they were to play NE or DEN in the Super Bowl, or even a super hot Ravens team, I really can't expect them to win a 3rd game, similarly to how it was in '98 against Denver.

I know people blame the Eugene Robinson thing for losing that game, but do people honestly still feel robbed over that? Im not saying that the Falcons couldn't beat Denver, but I think in the end the better team won. It's not like the '07 Super Bowl with NE and the Giants, where you feel gypped.

But doubting the Falcons in New Orleans is a problem I wish I could have. :fingersx:

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 7:25 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 5119
Pudge wrote:
But doubting the Falcons in New Orleans is a problem I wish I could have. :fingersx:



if we get there, we win. Even against the Pats.

write it down!

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:01 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 26136
Location: North Carolina
If I'm rooting for the Falcons to see two teams in the Super Bowl, football aside and just talking story lines, it would be Baltimore and/or New England. I would love to see Smitty & Ryan matching wits with Belichick. But I'd also love to see the Flacco vs. Ryan debate rage on the biggest stage.

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:38 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 5119
Pudge wrote:
If I'm rooting for the Falcons to see two teams in the Super Bowl, football aside and just talking story lines, it would be Baltimore and/or New England. I would love to see Smitty & Ryan matching wits with Belichick. But I'd also love to see the Flacco vs. Ryan debate rage on the biggest stage.



good point :hihi:

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 2:55 am 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4392
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:08 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:51 pm
Posts: 4934
Location: New York
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.

_________________
Image

I'm a Devin Hester guy.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:24 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 5119
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.



or, at the very least share;-)

I dont see them gettin by the Pats.

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:23 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 26136
Location: North Carolina
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.

That drug is called Torrey Smith. :wink:

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:03 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4392
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.

Pudge was saying that he wanted to see Flacco vs Ryan. I was agreeing. That's not my, "prediction."


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:05 pm 
Offline
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
Purveyor of Truth & Justice
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:03 pm
Posts: 26136
Location: North Carolina
Pudge wrote:
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.

That drug is called Torrey Smith. :wink:

Snorted some bad John Fox coaching decisions as well. Plus 1 bad decision by Peyton Manning. 8-)

_________________
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.


Top
 Profile E-mail  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:54 am 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 5119
Pudge wrote:
Pudge wrote:
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.

That drug is called Torrey Smith. :wink:

Snorted some bad John Fox coaching decisions as well. Plus 1 bad decision by Peyton Manning. 8-)


Tebow would have gotten that done :ninja:

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:04 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4392
fun gus wrote:
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.



or, at the very least share;-)

I dont see them gettin by the Pats.

You sure you want some of my drugs? ;)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:13 pm 
Offline
Draught Guru
Draught Guru
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:32 am
Posts: 5119
RobertAP wrote:
fun gus wrote:
Emmitt wrote:
RobertAP wrote:
Flacco vs Ryan... (These two guys get compared constantly) Gonzo vs Lewis. (battle of the retirees) I hope that we handle Seattle, Blow away Green Bay, and then make Flacco look like the mediocre QB that he is.


Whatever drugs you are on thinking the Ravens will make the Super Bowl, get off of them.



or, at the very least share;-)

I dont see them gettin by the Pats.

You sure you want some of my drugs? ;)



we all know you slipped something into Brady's Gatorade :oops:

Still think we could have beaten Ray Ray and the Flacco show ( provided Matt and healthy Abe are there)

_________________
"what if there were no hypothetical situations?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Football Nerdsiders give us a 7.1 chance to win it all
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:30 pm 
Offline
Superstar
Superstar

Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:15 pm
Posts: 4392
Yeah, I think we would have owned the Ravens. Our issue was running QB's. We got to the point that we were so afraid of them that we went to extraordinary lengths to keep contain. Unfortunately, the QB handed the ball off or threw it to a TE.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 15 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  


cron