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 Post subject: 2013 OSRS and DSRS quick hits: Atlanta Falcons.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:09 pm 
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The whole article is here.

Quick summary. Though the Atlanta Falcon's offensive SRS is pretty darned close to its 4 year average, the defensive SRS is about 5 points below that average. The loss of experience on the defensive side is the greater effect on the Falcons as a whole, as compared to the loss of offensive productivity, over the first 5 games.

I'll see if I can find my text list of these stats.

Code:
YEAR  NAME   W  L  T    SRS   OSRS   DSRS    MOV    SOS
--------------------------------------------------------
2009  ATL    9  7  0   5.03   2.78   2.25   2.38   2.66
2010  ATL   13  3  0   6.09   2.05   4.04   7.88  -1.79
2011  ATL   10  6  0   3.53   3.22   0.30   3.25   0.28
2012  ATL   13  3  0   6.44   3.53   2.91   7.50  -1.06
2013  ATL    1  4  0  -1.80   1.35  -3.15  -2.40   0.60


I talk about how I calculate OSRS and DSRS (offensive SRS and defensive SRS) here. A simple ranking is scaled in points, relative to the league as a whole. The highest simple ranking I know of in modern times is the 2007 New England Patriots, whose SRS is on the order of 20 points.

Simple Rankings differ from margins of victory, from which they are derived, by calculating a strength of schedule and applying that to the ranking.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 OSRS and DSRS quick hits: Atlanta Falcons.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:45 pm 
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I was looking at Football Outsiders today, and was surprised to see them have us ranked 31st currently in defensive DVOA. 31st vs. the pass, 22nd vs. the run, but combined for the 2nd worst defense in the league. Only the Chargers are worse, with teams like Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Washington, who probably most would guess are among the worst, ranking ahead of us overall.

AdvancedNFL Stats also has our poor in their defensive metrics. Interesting enough it seems to be the pass defense that is plaguing us. Last year we were 7th in the league in Pass EPA against. This year, we're 31st.

The parallels between 2002-03 with Phillips and how what looked to be a good defense in 2002 quickly disintegrated in 2003 to what is currently happening with Nolan are eerie.

Smoke and mirrors.

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 Post subject: Re: 2013 OSRS and DSRS quick hits: Atlanta Falcons.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:41 pm 
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The defense got rocked with the loss of Spoon and Biermann. These are two of our defensive, "stars." I would say that Biermann was the heart of the defense, and Spoon was its soul. When they went down, that was it. In terms of performance, neither one of them is spectacular, but I think that they meant a lot to the unit.

Beyond losing the two of them, we're starting four rookies.

We also have a very confusing defensive scheme. We seem to have blown assignments on a very large percentage of our downs. With all of the youth on the field, I had hoped that Nolan would have simplified things.


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 OSRS and DSRS quick hits: Atlanta Falcons.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:04 pm 
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The Falcons are also last in the Aikman ratings. Their rating is lower than last year Saints. :shock:

Robert,
I think you are overvalueing Spoon and Bier. Spoon hasn't looked great with Nolan. Not sure what the problem is. Bier is an average player.

I am not sure what Nolan could do. If he plays to vanilla then the defense will get abused. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficiencyR ... eek-5.aspx


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 Post subject: Re: 2013 OSRS and DSRS quick hits: Atlanta Falcons.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:13 am 
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I'm not overvaluing what they do on the field... I'm putting a value on what they bring to the team. Spoon is our rah rah guy. Biermann is the all over the field guy. I think that both of them have been a bit disappointing in terms of results, but with them out of the lineup, our defense just LOOKS flat.


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