A 5th is plenty for Tony. The season is over, the worse we do the better we will be in the future. With Tony we now may screw up and win some games
I'm hoping for 2-14 and a top 5 pick, not 6-10 and a 12-14 in each round. Also with our pension for trading up a 5th is valuable as we can package it with another pick or two to move up in one of rounds 1-3. Not trading him was stupid, plain and simple.
A. In most draft years, a team that goes 5-11 or 6-10 still typically picks in the Top 10, just the lower end of it. As you can tell from looking at the records of teams that picked in the past 3 drafts:
2013: http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap10000 ... -no-1-pick
2012: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/ ... raft-order
2011: http://www.sbnation.com/2011-nfl-draft/ ... e-schedule
B. You're operating under a false
assumption that picking in the Top 5 is inherently more valuable than picking between 5-10 or 10-15. That is entirely dependent on the specific draft class. Take for instance, 2009. Every single one of the Top 5 picks except Stafford is widely labeled busts, while there was only 1 bust taken between picks 6-10 (Darrius Heyward Bey). In fact, the best players taken in Round 1 of that draft were picks 13, 15, 21, 22, and 26, as well as picks 19, 23, and 29 also having just as much success in the NFL as any of the good picks in the Top 10.
Contrast that to 2011, where with the exception of the 3 QBs (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder), every single one of the Top 17 picks would (at this point in time) be considered a success.
Good teams draft well regardless of where they are picking. This may wind up being a draft where there are 3 or 4 outstanding prospects and thus picking after 4 might be undesirable. Or it could be a class where there are a dozen really solid prospects and picking at the top isn't really as valuable as normally perceived.
While there is a small increase in the chance you find a successful player at the upper end of the draft, the difference between a Top 5 pick and a Top 10 pick is probably not as big as many people perceive it to be.