Players that "might" be playing their final games

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DenimJacket
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Players that "might" be playing their final games

Postby DenimJacket » Tue Dec 13, 2005 12:51 pm

QB- Ty Detmer
QB- Matt Schaub (trade??)
RB- TJ Duckett (not our future, feature back and may want to leave)
RB- Warrick Dunn (can't live with his current contract)
WR- Dez White (gone)
OT- Kevin Shaffer (how much will he want to re-sign and do we want him back?)

DE- Brady Smith (age, nagging injuries, cap hit)
DB- Kevin Mathis (severe injury)
DB- Allen Rossum (one-dimensional)

K- Peterson (do we want a bigger leg?)

Every safety on the roster with the exception of Newton???

Any thoughts???

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Postby Pudge » Tue Dec 13, 2005 1:55 pm

Why get rid of a kicker just because he's not accurate from beyond 45 yards? I like Peterson, he's money from inside 45 yards. His range sucks, but it's only a good thing when your offense knows that if they can get the ball to the 28 yard line, we can get points.

The only kicker I would suggest replacing Peterson with is maybe Mike Vanderjagt. But Vanderjagt too has a weak leg, not to mention he'd probably cost 3 times as much as Peterson would to have.

I think Schaub will be back in 2006. If any veteran QB is going to get traded this off-season, I'd put my money on David Garrard before Schaub.

I think Duckett will be back too, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hear some trade grumblings in the off-season. I think Duckett wants out, and has been surprisingly quiet up until now. That may finally change.

Dunn will be back, although you're right, his contract will have to be worked. But with the year he's had, I can't imagine McKay & Co. not finding a way to retain him.

I think Shaffer will be back too. Short of the Falcons taking a LT in Round 1, I don't think we'll find an immediate upgrade this off-season, so even if the team doesn't want him, they would be smarter to keep him.

I think Mathis and Rossum will be back in camp next year. Will Mathis be 100%? Maybe not. But I think he's going to try and come back. Whether he's the same is the real question mark.

Rossum should be back in camp next year. DeCamillis loves him, and I could see the coaching staff blaming injuries for Rossum's poor year. But whether he makes the roster next year is a completely different question.

Detmer shouldn't come back, but if I'm in his shoes, I'd try to come back. He's 38 and hasn't thrown a pass in 5 years. He's making easy money being the #3 behind Vick and Schaub. And the roughly $1.5 million he's pocketed the past 2 years is doing nothing but padding his retirement fund, so adding another $750K or so is a good thing. But with the possibility that Schaub will be gone within the next 2 years, I think the Falcons should move on and start to groom Vick's next backup. I suggest Joey Harrington or Sage Rosenfels.
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Postby dirtybirdnw » Tue Dec 13, 2005 2:20 pm

I think Detmer will probably catch on with Atlanta has an assitant coach of sorts with the offensive unit. But he is a very cheap #3 QB so he could return in that capacity. We shall see.

I agree with Pudge that for the most part this team will remain unchanged. With limited cap space and the possibility of an uncapped year I think Atlanta will retain most of their players and try and go into next year with the same group and take it up a notch. One could argue that a lot of Atlanta's problems are injuries on the defensive side of the ball. On offense a new Guard or Center could cure many of the problems.

Unless they resolve the contract issue I don't see any team becoming a big spender or even letting their players walk. Too many question marks otherwise. The Falcons will need to improve via the draft. Again I think priority there is Corner, Safety, Center, Guard.
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Postby DenimJacket » Tue Dec 13, 2005 2:46 pm

My personel opinions....

I think Peterson returns unless we draft a kicker late and beats Todd out. I don't think this will happen.

I think Rossum returns unless we draft a guy like Devin Hester.

I think Mathis will try to come back but I think his age and injury will be too much to overcome. I will say Kevin retires.

If we are offered a first for Matt I think we should take it.

Hope Warrick will take a pay cut.

Undecided on Shaffer at this time. Too many factors involved.

If releasing Brady would help to sign a guy like Tank Williams I am all for it.

I'm sorry guys but I just don't have any confidence in our safties except on ST's. I really feel we need two new starters that are more physical. Guys that do more than ankle tackle.....when they do tackle. Note- I don't care to have a rookie starting at the safety position although I hope we draft one high. This is the reason I would move Matt....to upgrade the secondary with a first and also maybe a defensive end.

Duckett's future here is limited imo. I hate to lose a first round pick and get nothing in return so I would love it if he were traded.


Thanks for all the input guys! You're thoughts are most welcome!

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Tue Dec 13, 2005 3:21 pm

We need our safeties to be solid at coverage and tackling. It would be nice to have a wrecking ball backing up Ed Hartwell & Crew but considering we play the safety roles reversed I'm not sure Tank is the best option.
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Postby DenimJacket » Tue Dec 13, 2005 4:12 pm

dirtybirdnw wrote:We need our safeties to be solid at coverage and tackling. It would be nice to have a wrecking ball backing up Ed Hartwell & Crew but considering we play the safety roles reversed I'm not sure Tank is the best option.

Any physical safety that can provide over the top support would be welcomed.

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Postby Steve-O » Wed Dec 14, 2005 2:17 pm

yeah I agree that our FO will find a way to keep Dunn around...I just hope we don't put all our eggs in that basket though...Dunn is a great player but he is getting older and with rb's it seems like they can be doing awesome one year and then just hit a wall and never be the same after that...I would hate for that to happen to us...

I don't care who plays safety next year as long as they can tackle...I can't take this missed tackle crap anymore...that is the most basic thing in football, tackling and blocking, and we cannot tackle at all...

as far as our line goes...well I really wouldn't be surprised if we fielded the exact same 5 as we did this year...that's not what I want, but we are the #1 rushing team and all so they must be doing something right...I don't know that Mora and Co will want to mess with that...but like the rest of you I'd love to see a new C and G....

and TJ...well I have a soft spot for TJ....I don't want to see him leave but if he does we better get a good replacement!!!!

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Postby Pudge » Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:35 pm

Shaffer could see quite a bit of money thrown his way this off-season. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't bet against it either.

There are no top flight LTs on this market. Last year, Jonas Jennings was helped tremendously by the presence of Walter Jones and Orlando Pace. Both of them were tagged, which made Jennings stock soar landing him a fat contract with the 49ers because he was the only quality free agent with experience that could play LT.

The premier LTs this off-season are SHaffer, Mike Pearson, and Jeff Backus. Backus is having his worst year as a Lion. He's a good player but for whatever reason his play his slipped over the past few years. Pearson has done a decent job in Jacksonville, but injuries have held him back the past two years, and he's been supplanted and outplayed by rookie Khalif Barnes this year. Both Backus and Pearson are considered pass blockers that don't have a lot of pedigree as run blockers. When you look at the tape, you can clearly tell run blocking is not Shaffer's strength, but I think a few GMs are going to disregard that when you look at the Falcons being the #1 rushing team the past two years thinking "He must be doing something right."

With that in mind, Shaffer might be considered the best overall LT prospect on the FA market.

If you look at Shaffer, Pearson, and Backus stats provided by PFW, Shaffer has been credited with 11.25 sacks and 15 penalties over his career (44 games, 36 starts). Backus has 13 sacks, 21 penalties in 45 starts (just the past 3 years). Pearson has 9 sacks and 13 penalties in his 22 starts (past 3 years). When you count a sack allowed and penalty as an equal mistake, SHaffer emerges with having the lower "mistakes per game" average. It slightly edges out Backus (0.73 for Shaffer compared to 0.76). But if you consider Shaffer's 8 non-starts most likely involve him only playing ST, and just average the figures based on # of starts, Shaffer's improves to 0.6 vs. Backus 0.76.

Not to mention Shaffer has been tutored under Gibbs, who is widely considered the top OL coach in the league. So that means a number of teams that don't think they can get a quality LT in the early part of the draft (which is looking more and more like a possibility), you could see Shaffer's stock and price tag rise significantly.

It will also help a lot too how well he plays in these next 3 games.
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Postby The_Incomparable » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:36 am

Schaub has to be moved while his value is high or he is a wasted 3rd round pick. Most of those guys can go for all I care too. We have to be thinking 2-3 years from now, not this year or next.QB's hit their peak around the mid-late 20's and we need to build this team in anticipation Vick hitting that peak. We will need to completely re-tool the D, work on the O0line, and bring in a high quality feature back in order to make a dynasty type run. Luckily we have a lot of the pieces in place already and only need to compliment them.

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:45 am

I suppose... Seems most QB's peak in their late twenties to early thirties in my observations. A lot of the leagues better QB's are in their late twenties and early thirties.

For example......

Peyton Manning: 29
Marc Bulger: 28
Matt Hasselbeck: 30
Tom Brady: 27
Jake Plummer: 31
Trent Green: 35
Jake Delhomme: 30
Donovan McNabb: 29

In the case of Jake Plummer and even Trent Green their late emergence was more due to were they where at than age. But I think for the most part Quarterbacks really hit their stride starting around 26 or 27. Vick of course has been delayed a bit thanks to the numerous offensive systems he had to figure out.
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Postby buddyboy » Thu Dec 15, 2005 12:57 pm

it's always a waste if you lose somebody and not get anything in return. i think that's what comp meant, not that he schuab himself was a waste. if we know schaub is gonna leave and don't get anything, it definitely will be a waste because he's gonna have some serious suitors come the offseason.

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Postby The_Incomparable » Thu Dec 15, 2005 6:47 pm

Keep in mind most of those QB's peaked a couple years ago (Brady & Manning come to mind), but either way my point is what it is. We need to be building for 2008-2010 to take advantage of Vick's peak and to prepare for the fallout of 2007 when a ton of our players will be FA or have been signed the couple of years before.

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Postby Pudge » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:26 am

I think QBs peak between their 5th and 7th years in the league. McNair led the OIlers to a Super Bowl in his 5th year. Manning was MVP in his 7th year. Favre led the Packers to the Super Bowl in his 6th year. You can look at it, but I think in the vast majority of cases, most NFL QBs have their best years between the age of 27 and 30. As for Brady, his success came earlier than most, but I honestly believe we haven't seen his peak yet. This is Brady's 6th year (5th as a starter), and he's having a better year this year than he did last year, despite not nearly having the same level of help on his team.

Trading Duckett this off-season is a good move because he is a FA after '06, and he'll walk scott free. Luckily Schaub will only be a RFA after 2006, so he can still be traded. I think the Falcons may have slipped by missing a pretty strong RB market last year for trading Duckett. This off-season should be a strong QB market with a lot of teams looking to add promising young passers. Unfortunately because there is likely to be a glut of young players available, the Falcons may not be able to get the best value it can for Schaub.

Either way, I'd part ways with Schaub for as low as a 3rd round pick.[/i]
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Postby dirtybirdnw » Fri Dec 16, 2005 1:13 pm

I do think Duckett has improved his stock this year though. He is showing his ability to gain 5 yards when there is nothing. He is proving his capabilities as a goal and short yardage threat. He's even shown that he could be a starter if given the oppotunity. I believe had we delt him last year he would have suffered from the mind set that he would go the Ron Dayne route.
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Postby Steve-O » Fri Dec 16, 2005 2:30 pm

I think Duckett will amount to something somewhere....may not be here but he's gonna be a good feature back for someone....

I think he never gets to show is full potential because like most bog backs he will get better as the game goes on.....his first10 carries won't be as effective as the next ten and so on....honestly if Dunn weren't having such a good year I'd be crying out that we use them wrong...seems to me that you'd want to pound the defense first, wear them down, and then bring the small quick guy in....but hey what we are doing now is working so it's all good with me!!!!

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Postby Pudge » Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:32 am

By alternating them, you can confuse defenses. You can't play them the same if you're a defense. You have to tackle them different, take different angles. It can be difficult for players to adjust so much on the fly.

And whichever order you play them really doesn't matter. From chasing Dunn around, defenses get tired, and then lack the power and toughness to tackle Duckett. Fatigue is fatigue, and each player sets up the other equally.
"Vincere scis, Hannibal, victoria uti nescis" -- Maharbal, 216 B.C.E.

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Postby Steve-O » Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:24 am

I kinda see your point but it's always made a lot more sense to me to start with the big guy....easier to block for and it seems to be more effective from what I've seen....I do see exactly where you are coming from though....


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