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 Post subject: Moneyball Rules
PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2010 2:35 am 
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Moneyball returns with basically the same scoring system as last year, but there are a few changes, and I think I'll explain my scoring process in deeper detail in some areas.

As you should be realizing, moneyball is simply a scoring system used when reviewing games to see which players are the ones making the plays.

It's scoring system is geared towards the offense's ability to move the chains, and the defense's ability to stop the opponent from doing the same.

It's not meant to be a definitive indicator of which players are good or bad. It's not a complete story of which players even had good games. There are some players that will play well but won't earn anything in Moneyball, and players that earn Moneyball points that didn't particularly play well.

As before, it's biased towards RBs, WRs, and D-linemen and against O-linemen and DBs. It's obviously not perfect, but it's the best I can do for now.

So let's get back into it:

PASSING

Moving the chains is the key. Here are how quarterbacks earn points:

1st Down ... $1
3rd Down Conversion... $1
Long (20+ yards) Pass ... $1

For the record, first downs and third down conversions are not counted twice. So a guy will earn $1 if he gets a first on a 3rd & 2 and he will get $1 if he gets a first on 2nd & 14.

Touchdown pass ... $2
Longer (40+ yards) Pass ... $2

It is assumed that all completed passes of 20 or more yards are first downs, so again they are not counted a second time.

Interception ... (-$1)
Poor Throw ... (-$1)
Sacked ... (-$1)

A poor throw is a fairly liberal interpretation. If a pass is incomplete not because of a defender broke it up, or because of a dropped pass, or because of a throw away, then it will usually be considered a poor throw. But there are some rare cases where a pass is on the border between a drop and a poor throw, and in those cases I'll usually give both parties the benefit of the doubt. And it has to be a fairly obvious throwaway. And yes, if a defender gets his hand on it, even if the reason for that is because it was off the mark, it still won't count.

Interceptions only take away one point although if they are due to a poor throw, it basically makes them worth -$2, which is normally what happens. But I also didn't want to overly peanlize the QB if an interception was caused by a tipped ball. Sacked credit is when it is the fault of the QB that he was sacked. This will basically usually only happen when he holds onto the ball too long and/or tries to step up or move around the pocket which leads him taking a sack.

RUSHING

For running backs, I added a new thing because basically the old scoring system didn't account for anything negative that a running back could do rushing the ball besides fumble. I'll explain what it is in a bit...

Carry of 5 or more yards ... $1
First Down ... $1
3rd Down Conversion ... $1
A Carry which includes 5 yards or more after contact ... $1

Why 5 yards? Well it's a nice round number. It's higher than the NFL average (which was around 4.2 yards per carry last year), and generally speaking if a runner gets a carry of 5 yards or more on a 1st & 10, it means his team is likely to convert evenutally.

As it is with QBs, first downs and third down conversions aren't counted twice.

Why 5 yards or more after contact, well simply because again it's a round number. What constitutes contact? It's sort of subjective, but I look to see if the defender was able to make a square hit on the ballcarrier. Basically any attempted tackle that should bring down the runner but doesn't will start where the contact occurs.

Long (10+ yards) Run ... $2
Touchdown ... $2

Missed Hole ... -$1

This is the new measure that attributes some negativity to the RB position now. It's basically the same as a missed block from before, except when the fault of the loss of yardage isn't on a blocker, but instead on the running back. Maybe he ran into the back of a linemen when he should have bounced outside. Maybe he cut back when he should not have. Stuff like that. It probably won't happen a lot, but occasionally there are times when the running game goes nowhere and its not particularly the fault of the blocking.

RECEIVING

First Down ... $1
3rd Down Conversion ... $1
Long (20+ yard) Catch ... $1
Yards After Catch of 10+ yards ... $1
Longer (40+ yard) catch ... $2
Touchdown ... $2

Pretty much the same as quarterback. Except you also factor in yards after the catch. If a receiver gets 10 yards or more after the catch, he earns some money.

And if you're wondering, yes it is possible for a guy to earn money for yards after the catch as well as yards after contact as a runner. This exact thing occurred early last season where Ovie Mughelli caught a ball in the flat, broke a tackle and ran 10+ yards after the catch, which earned him $2.

Dropped Pass ... -$1

What constitutes a drop is also subjective. Generally, I'm counting passes that the receiver got their hands on that weren't thrown behind the receiver or too high or low to have a reasonable chance of making the catch.


Yes, it is possible for plays to accumulate multiple money. For example, if a receiver catches a pass 30 yards down the field, breaks a tackle and then scampers another 20 yards for a touchdown, then he'll earn $6 on that play.

40+ yd catch ($2) + Yards After Catch ($1) + Yards After COntact ($1) + Touchdown ($2) = $6

And no a touchdown scored on 3rd down won't earn you $3, just the $2 for the touchdown.


BLOCKING

Linemen don't get enough cred. So the main way they earn money is through key blocks.

Key Block ... $1

You can earn key blocks on the following:

10+ yard Run
20+ yard catch
1st Down Run/Catch
3rd Down Conversion Run/Catch
Touchdown
Pass Protection

When assessing key blocks, try to reduce it to the least amount of linemen, preferably one. Although occasionally there will be plays were there are two clear key blocks that spring the runner (or receiver in some cases). If two players block the same player, then they split the key block. Pass protection is considered when a blocker is able to pick up or chip a pass rusher at the last second which buys the QB enough time to deliver a completion.

No Sacks Allowed ... $1
No Pressures Allowed ... $1

Also because there aren't a ton of key blocks in a game, I've also made it so that if linemen go an entire game without allowing a sack or pressure, they get credit as well.

What is a sack? Sacks are only considered times when a quarterback is passing.
What is a pressure? Pressures are when a pass rusher forces the QB to deliver the ball early, or flushes him from the pocket, or disrupts the pass in a way that causes an incompletion.

And sacks and pressures are considered separate. So a guy can have a game where he gives up a sack, but doesn't give up a pressure.

Sacks Allowed ... -$1
Missed BLock ... -$1

A missed block is considered when the running back is hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, and which blocker missing his assignment was the culprit. And like key blocks, it tries to reduce it to one player if possible. If two players fail to block the same player, then they will share credit for the sack, pressure, or missed block.

SPECIAL NOTE

Two-point conversion ... $1

For the passer, rusher, or receiver it will count for whoever is applicable.

DEFENSE

Tackles for Loss ... $1
Tackle on 3rd Down ... $1
Sack ... $1
QB Pressure ... $1
QB Hit ... $1
Pass Defended ... $1
Pass Defended on 3rd Down ... $1
Interception ... $2
Fumble Forced ... $1
Fumble Recovery ... $1

Tackle for loss is considered when a defender hits the running back at or behind the line of scrimmage. A tackle on third down is credited when a player makes a stop on third down that results in a fourth down punt. If you make a stop on third down, and the team kicks a field goal on fourth down, then it doesn't count. But it does count if that team misses that field goal. Kind of quirky I know. But basically it only works if it doesn't lead to points and you get the ball back.

Sacks and QB pressures are the same rules mentioned above under blocking. It only counts as a sack when the QB is in the act of throwing. If the QB tucks it in order to run, and is takcled behind the line of scrimmage, it just becomes a tackle for loss. A pressure only counted when the pass is incomplete.

QB Hits are kind of fickle. In the NFL, if a pass rusher strips a quarterback, it is counted as a sack. But for us, unless he actually takes the QB to the ground, then it's going to count as a QB hit. Also if a defender hits the QB during the act of passing, then he'll get credit even if the pass is completed.

Passes defended include when a defender hits the receiver after the catch that causes him to drop the pass. Like the tackles on third down, the third down credit for a pass defended only counts if it results in a punt or missed field goal.

Last year, picks counted only $1, but now I've decided to make it worth $2. It just makes more sense.

Blown Coverage on a 3rd Down Conversion or a 20+ yard pass ... -$1
Blown Coverage on a Touchdown ... -$2
Missed Tackle that results in a First Down ... -$1
Missed Tackle that results in a Touchdown ... -$2
Key Blocked ... - $1

There will be some occasions when the team is in zone coverage, and I'll have no idea who was at fault for a big play, but usually I'll try my best to attribute "blame."

A new measure is added which is "Key Blocked." It basically is the inverse of what the offensive key block, but will only count runs of 5 yards or more.

It should also be noted that if a team opts to go for it on 4th down, any tackles, PDs, or blown coverages will be treated the same as they would be if they occurred on third down.

KICKING

Field Goal Made (under 50 yards) ... $1
Field Goal Made (50+ yards) ... $2
Field Goal Missed (under 45 yards) ... -$1
Field Goal Missed (under 35 yards) ... -$2
PAT Missed ... - $1

I tend to think that a 48-yard field goal isn't a chip shot, so I don't think a kicker should be knocked for missing it. But I also don't think he should be given an extra point for making it either. Kickers should be able to make every kick under 35 yards, so they are docked extra for missing.

Touchback on a Kickoff ... $1

PUNTING

Placed Inside 10-yard line ... $1
Placed Inside 5-yard line ... $2
Fair Catch Inside 20-yard line ... $1
Touchback ... - $1
Blocked Punt ... - $1

RETURNS

Punt Return of 20+ yards ... $1
Kickoff Return of 35+ yards ... $1
Touchdown ... $2

OTHER SPECIAL TEAMS

ST Tackle on Punt Return of less than 5 yds ... $1
ST Tackle on Kick Return of less than 20 yds ... $1
Blocked Kick ... $1
Onside Kick Recovery ... $1

Botched Snap/Hold ... -$1

PENALTIES

These apply to everyone.

Fumble ... -$1
Fumble Lost ... -$2
Penalty (Less than 15 yards) ... -$1
Penalty (15+ yards) ... -$2

If a defender picks off a pass or recovers a fumble, and then himself fumbles, it won't be counted, unless of course he loses the fumble, and then it will be counted.

PLAYING TIME

I haven't really decided if I was going to include playing time this year. I probably will, but I'll probably wait until the end of the year and just look at the snap counts that Pro Football Focus has. But like last year, it will be based off:

Appearance in a Game (Offense, Defense, or Special Teams) ... $1
Playing 30+ snaps on Offense or Defense ... $2

Enjoy.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:15 am 
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Just some additional notes and observations...

I was wrong, there was at least one play where there was a blatant hold on John Abraham, perpetrated by Max Starks, comparable to the same hold that Baker got flagged for in overtime against James Harrison. There was a second hold on Abe that probably should have been called as well. I guess that qualifies as the two calls the officials missed.

There were a few times where Ryan was hit or pressured that weren't counted because it was because of good coverage or because a blitzer came free. But that only amounted to 3 times by my count, and in one of those instances, he was still able to complete a pass to Norwood.

The Falcons called the designed rollout that everybody hates at least two times and it worked both times. First one was to Weems on a comeback route. The second one was to Gonzo on his first reception that was negated by that penalty.

James Harrison's sack that Sam Baker allowed was because he got an incredible jump off the snap as many recall.

The sack that Clabo and Dahl share was when Woodley and Harrison, respectively, bull-rushed both into Matt Ryan.

Brent Grimes and Stephen Nicholas both made tackles on 3rd down that would have counted if not for the fact that the Steelers made field goals on the subsequent fourth down. However, Lofton had a tackle on 3rd down that did count because Reed missed that potential game-winner in the 4th.

Ryan had only 1 throwaway from what I could see, and that was caused by good coverage.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 4:00 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:01 pm 
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Week 3 vs. Saints: http://falcfans.com/?p=2950

Ovie and Gonzo definitely get offensive MVP honors in this one.

Babs gets defensive honors.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 7:58 pm 
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Some of this stuff I noted in the article linked above, but here are the additional game notes I took:

It looks like Biermann missed the block that led to the punt block.

I think Ryan was hit 4 or 5 times in the 1st quarter. It looked like he was hit twice in the 2nd quarter. Once in the 3rd quarter. 2 times in the 4th quarter, including a sack.

Babs had a pressure and TFL wiped out because of penalties. Robinson's PI wiped out a pressure, and a false start by Nate Byham wiped out a TFL

Biermann's QBP came on the play where Lofton got a sack.

Nicholas had two run stuffs where he met Gore near the leine of scrimmage for minimal gains, although they weren't really tackles for loss. Abraham had another one. Anderson and Davis each had one, all three of them came when they lined up at LDE.

Nicholas and Lofton both missed open field tackles on a 12-yard gain by Frank Gore on a 3rd & 20, but didn't get points taken away because Gore failed to convert. Grimes missed a stop as well. Moore missed a stop on Davis that only went 6. Davis broke 4 tackles on one play, beating MOore, Anderson, Grimes, and Biermann, but only got 3 yards.

Weems had a 19-yard punt, and a 30-yard KO return, which didn't merit him points but they were solid returns.

Brooks had a pressure on Ryan where he came free on a blitz.

Abraham got some pressure negated by a Crabtree catch over Robinson.

I gave Corey Peters credit for a QBP on the Lofton INT, although he really didn't beat his man. But the threat of pressure got to Smith, he rushed his throw and it was picked off.

Gonzo had a 1st down negated by a offsides penalty on Justin Smith.

Ryan's first poor throw didn't come until 1 minute remaining in the 1st half/2nd quarter.

Ryan scrambled for 9 yards on a play that the pressure was given up as Baker failed to adjust to a stunt/switch.

Lofton had a pass broken up on 3rd down that was negated by him being flagged for PI.

One of Dahl's missed blocks came as the Falcons were setting up the field goal at the end. Blalock also missed a block as well on the following play.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 10:57 pm 
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Danke!! Good stuff Pudge.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:39 pm 
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Week 5 vs. cardinals: http://falcfans.com/?p=2978

Here are the additional notes I took while re-watching the game:

Eric Wright came free on a QB hit on the Falcons 2nd series. Credited Baker for missing the delayed blitz pickup that Barton got a big hit on Ryan in the 2nd quarter.

Browns DBs/LBs credited with 5 passes defended.

Ryan had two throwaways in the redzone on 3rd downs because of good coverage. He a 3rd throwaway on a 2nd down in the redzone.

Zelenka had a low snap on Koenen's first punt.

Grimes missed another tackle, but only after a guy had gotten the 1st down. Weatherspoon missed a stop on Robert Royal. Lofton got plowed by Hillis on a 5-yard gain inside the 10. Moore missed a stop on Cribbs out of the wildcat.

Biermann gets credit for a pressure on the deep throw to Massaquoi, which probably could have been ruled a TD if the Browns had challenged. He beat Robinson on the throw. Then two plays later Biermann got beat by HIllis for the score. Robinson almost got beat again on a deep throw, but it was slightly overthrown by Jake to Cribbs.

Blalock missed a 2nd block because he stumbled out of the gates and missed his chance to pull, which is a significant reason why the drive stalled after Turner's 55-yard gain.

DeCoud dropped an easy INT in the endzone.

The Browns really hurt themselves on 3rd downs in this game. Delhomme fumbled a handoff on a 3rd & goal at the 2-yard line. They had 2 penalties on 3rd down, including one on a 3rd & 2. Watson then had a illegal formation on another 3rd down.

Weems had a 32-yard return, and the Falcons scored a TD on Ryan's 45-yard strike to Roddy.

The fight in the 3rd qtr. on the kickoff was started by Antone Smith and Josh Cribbs.

I couldn't help but notice that there were at least 4 Falcons looking over the trainer's shoulders when Weatherspoon went down with an injury. Indicative of just how integral he has become to this defense in his short time here.

Nicholas had a pressure negated because of a blown coverage (Lofton).

DeCoud's interception was negated by the P.I. against Robinson.

Abe got credit for a PD for upending Ben Watson, forcing a drop.

On the TFL split between Grimes and DeCoud, Babs gets credit for getting upfield, cutting off Hillis run and forcing him to redirect towards Grimes/DeCoud.

Moore dropped an INT on an overthrow.

The refs didn't name a player for the illegal formation penalty at the end of hte game, but I think it was Svitek who was the culprit.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:45 pm 
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Stats from the First 4 games: http://falcfans.com/?p=2981

Glossary for the 1st quarter stats:

PASSING
1st = 1st Down
3rd = 3rd Down Conversion
PT = Poor Throw

RUSHING
5+ = Carry of 5+ yards
YAC = Carry where 5+ yards were gained after contact
MH = Missed Hole

RECEIVING
YAC = Reception where 10+ yards were gained after catch

BLOCKING

KB RUn = Key Block on a run of 10+ yards
KB Rec = Key Block on a reception of 20+ yards
KB 1st = Key Block on a play resulting in a 1st down
KB 3rd = Key Block on a 3rd down conversion
KB Pass = Key Block in pass protection
SA = Sacks Allowed
MB = Missed Blocks
PA = Pressures Allowed

PENALTIES
Lo Pen = Penalty of less than 15 yards
Hi Pen = Penalty of 15 or more yards

DEFENSE
Tk 3rd = Tackle on a 3rd down
QBP = QB Pressure
QBH = QB Hit
PD 3rd = Pass defended on a 3rd down
BC = Blown Coverage
BC TD = Blown Coverage for a Touchdown
MT = Missed Tackle
MT TD = Missed Tackle for a Touchdown
KBd = Key Blocked

KICKING
FGM = Field Goal Made
FGx = Field Goal Missed
PATx = Point after Touchdown Missed
KO TB = Kickoff Touchback

SPECIAL TEAMS
OKR = Onside Kick Recovery
Snap = Botched Snap/Hold

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:45 pm 
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Week 6 Review vs. Eagles: http://falcfans.com/?p=2991

Additional notes taken from teh game:

On the first score, Jackson was down before the ball crossed the goalline. But it would have put the ball at the one inch line.

Jenkins earned $4 on the 42-yard skinny post.

Ryan was hit 4x.

Abraham was caught out of position twice on two end-arounds to Jackson.

The defense was already in the hole $12 after the first two scoring drives, with not a single positive defensive play. Jerry's sack was the first positive play for the defense.

Biermann and others had pressures wiped out due to a holding on King Dunlap.

It's fascinating that the one good punt Koenen had all day, was returned 44 yards, negating the 47-yarder.

Ryan was pressured once on a free blitzer.

Dahl had key blocks on two 9-yard carries for Turner (Blalock also had a key block on one of them). Ovie had a key block on SNelling's 8-yard line. Dahl had another key block, along with McClure on a 9-yard gain from Snelling in the 4th quarter.

Ryan had Roddy wide streaking downfield on a rollout to the right. But he decided to throw on the run, although if he had stopped and set his feet he probably would have completed the throw.

Ryan did a very poor job of leading his receivers, as he probably had a half dozen short throws that were inaccurate simply because he threw behind a receiver, or aimed for the numbers instead of leading them.

Perfect example of the missed read by Ryan. On the 3rd & 11 at the PHI 11 in the 3rd quarter, where he missed a wide open Gonzo in the endzone. The Eagles blitzed, but if Ryan had changed the protection and told Snelling to chip/block instead of going out in the flat, he should have been able to see an open Gonzo.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:24 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:05 pm 
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Week 9 vs. Bucs

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 5:53 pm 
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Stats thru the first 8 games: http://falcfans.com/?p=3045

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 7:26 pm 
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Week 10 vs. Ravens review: http://falcfans.com/?p=3056

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:32 pm 
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http://falcfans.com/?p=3088

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:22 pm 
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http://falcfans.com/?p=3102

Week 12 review vs. Packers

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 2:30 pm 
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Week 13 Review vs. Bucs: http://falcfans.com/?p=3119

Some additional notes:

Peters & Abraham would have been credited with a pressure on Freeman's 17-yard scamper. Davis would have had one on a 6-yard gain from Freeman.

Williams had a missed tackle, but Weatherspoon bailed him out to knock Winslow out of bounds to force a 4th down FG try.

Babineaux picked up his play in the 2nd half, able to get penetration on several plays. Got a sack on a 3-man rush. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:18 pm 
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Week 14 vs. Panthers: http://falcfans.com/?p=3136

Week 15 vs. Seahawks: http://falcfans.com/?p=3150

Some additional Seahawks notes:

Jerry almost had a pressure on a swing pass to Lynch on 3rd down. Chauncey Davis almost had a pressure forcing a 5-yard scramble from Hasselbeck.

DeCoud missed a tackle on a 9-yard gain by Forsett.

Ryan missed a deep throw to Douglas because Jordan Babineaux provided pressure, coming free off the corner.

There was twice where Raheem Brock was able to get a hit on Ryan on an inside stunt.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:57 pm 
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Hey, you forgot to mention Anderson's sack on the stat sheet. You only put Abraham, I know Anderson and sacks is tough to connect but c'mon now.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 4:21 pm 
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According to the Moneyball rules, Anderson's sack isn't really a sack. According to Moneyball rules, a sack is only when a defensive player tackles a QB in the act of passing. Anderson's sack was qualified as a QB Hit and Forced Fumble.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 4:55 pm 
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Oh I am sorry to disturb you. I still think that is pretty stupid, but according to your rules it was it is. Just don't let any of the ESPN guys see that.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 8:07 pm 
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Week 16 vs. Saints: http://falcfans.com/?p=3188

I think Bushrod got away with at least 2 false starts that weren't called.

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 11:42 am 
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Final Regular Season Stats: http://falcfans.com/?p=3202

Week 17 Review vs. Panthers: http://falcfans.com/?p=3197

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules 2010
PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:51 pm 
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Week 19 review vs. Packers:

http://falcfans.com/?p=3265

:x

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules
PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 2:07 pm 
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Week 1 Review vs. Bears: http://falcfans.com/moneyball-2011-week-1-review-4839

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 Post subject: Re: Moneyball Rules
PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2011 1:47 pm 
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Week 2 Review: http://falcfans.com/moneyball-2011-week-2-review-4886

Offensive MVP: Tony Gonzalez
Defensive MVP: Ray Edwards
Special Teams MVP: Stephen Nicholas

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