Moneyball returns with basically the same scoring system as last year
, but there are a few changes, and I think I'll explain my scoring process in deeper detail in some areas.
As you should be realizing, moneyball is simply a scoring system used when reviewing games to see which players are the ones making the plays.
It's scoring system is geared towards the offense's ability to move the chains, and the defense's ability to stop the opponent from doing the same.
It's not meant to be a definitive indicator of which players are good or bad. It's not a complete story of which players even had good games. There are some players that will play well but won't earn anything in Moneyball, and players that earn Moneyball points that didn't particularly play well.
As before, it's biased towards RBs, WRs, and D-linemen and against O-linemen and DBs. It's obviously not perfect, but it's the best I can do for now.
So let's get back into it:
Moving the chains is the key. Here are how quarterbacks earn points:
1st Down ... $1
3rd Down Conversion... $1
Long (20+ yards) Pass ... $1
For the record, first downs and third down conversions are not counted twice. So a guy will earn $1 if he gets a first on a 3rd & 2 and he will get $1 if he gets a first on 2nd & 14.
Touchdown pass ... $2
Longer (40+ yards) Pass ... $2
It is assumed that all completed passes of 20 or more yards are first downs, so again they are not counted a second time.
Interception ... (-$1)
Poor Throw ... (-$1)
Sacked ... (-$1)
A poor throw is a fairly liberal interpretation. If a pass is incomplete not because of a defender broke it up, or because of a dropped pass, or because of a throw away, then it will usually be considered a poor throw. But there are some rare cases where a pass is on the border between a drop and a poor throw, and in those cases I'll usually give both parties the benefit of the doubt. And it has to be a fairly obvious throwaway. And yes, if a defender gets his hand on it, even if the reason for that is because it was off the mark, it still won't count.
Interceptions only take away one point although if they are due to a poor throw, it basically makes them worth -$2, which is normally what happens. But I also didn't want to overly peanlize the QB if an interception was caused by a tipped ball. Sacked credit is when it is the fault of the QB that he was sacked. This will basically usually only happen when he holds onto the ball too long and/or tries to step up or move around the pocket which leads him taking a sack.
For running backs, I added a new thing because basically the old scoring system didn't account for anything negative that a running back could do rushing the ball besides fumble. I'll explain what it is in a bit...
Carry of 5 or more yards ... $1
First Down ... $1
3rd Down Conversion ... $1
A Carry which includes 5 yards or more after contact ... $1
Why 5 yards? Well it's a nice round number. It's higher than the NFL average (which was around 4.2 yards per carry last year), and generally speaking if a runner gets a carry of 5 yards or more on a 1st & 10, it means his team is likely to convert evenutally.
As it is with QBs, first downs and third down conversions aren't counted twice.
Why 5 yards or more after contact, well simply because again it's a round number. What constitutes contact? It's sort of subjective, but I look to see if the defender was able to make a square hit on the ballcarrier. Basically any attempted tackle that should bring down the runner but doesn't will start where the contact occurs.
Long (10+ yards) Run ... $2
Touchdown ... $2
Missed Hole ... -$1
This is the new measure that attributes some negativity to the RB position now. It's basically the same as a missed block from before, except when the fault of the loss of yardage isn't on a blocker, but instead on the running back. Maybe he ran into the back of a linemen when he should have bounced outside. Maybe he cut back when he should not have. Stuff like that. It probably won't happen a lot, but occasionally there are times when the running game goes nowhere and its not particularly the fault of the blocking.
First Down ... $1
3rd Down Conversion ... $1
Long (20+ yard) Catch ... $1
Yards After Catch of 10+ yards ... $1
Longer (40+ yard) catch ... $2
Touchdown ... $2
Pretty much the same as quarterback. Except you also factor in yards after the catch. If a receiver gets 10 yards or more after the catch, he earns some money.
And if you're wondering, yes it is possible for a guy to earn money for yards after the catch as well as yards after contact as a runner. This exact thing occurred early last season where Ovie Mughelli caught a ball in the flat, broke a tackle and ran 10+ yards after the catch, which earned him $2.
Dropped Pass ... -$1
What constitutes a drop is also subjective. Generally, I'm counting passes that the receiver got their hands on that weren't thrown behind the receiver or too high or low to have a reasonable chance of making the catch.
Yes, it is possible for plays to accumulate multiple money. For example, if a receiver catches a pass 30 yards down the field, breaks a tackle and then scampers another 20 yards for a touchdown, then he'll earn $6 on that play.
40+ yd catch ($2) + Yards After Catch ($1) + Yards After COntact ($1) + Touchdown ($2) = $6
And no a touchdown scored on 3rd down won't earn you $3, just the $2 for the touchdown.
Linemen don't get enough cred. So the main way they earn money is through key blocks.
Key Block ... $1
You can earn key blocks on the following:
10+ yard Run
20+ yard catch
1st Down Run/Catch
3rd Down Conversion Run/Catch
When assessing key blocks, try to reduce it to the least amount of linemen, preferably one. Although occasionally there will be plays were there are two clear key blocks that spring the runner (or receiver in some cases). If two players block the same player, then they split the key block. Pass protection is considered when a blocker is able to pick up or chip a pass rusher at the last second which buys the QB enough time to deliver a completion.
No Sacks Allowed ... $1
No Pressures Allowed ... $1
Also because there aren't a ton of key blocks in a game, I've also made it so that if linemen go an entire game without allowing a sack or pressure, they get credit as well.
What is a sack? Sacks are only considered times when a quarterback is passing.
What is a pressure? Pressures are when a pass rusher forces the QB to deliver the ball early, or flushes him from the pocket, or disrupts the pass in a way that causes an incompletion.
And sacks and pressures are considered separate. So a guy can have a game where he gives up a sack, but doesn't give up a pressure.
Sacks Allowed ... -$1
Missed BLock ... -$1
A missed block is considered when the running back is hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, and which blocker missing his assignment was the culprit. And like key blocks, it tries to reduce it to one player if possible. If two players fail to block the same player, then they will share credit for the sack, pressure, or missed block.
Two-point conversion ... $1
For the passer, rusher, or receiver it will count for whoever is applicable.
Tackles for Loss ... $1
Tackle on 3rd Down ... $1
Sack ... $1
QB Pressure ... $1
QB Hit ... $1
Pass Defended ... $1
Pass Defended on 3rd Down ... $1
Interception ... $2
Fumble Forced ... $1
Fumble Recovery ... $1
Tackle for loss is considered when a defender hits the running back at or behind the line of scrimmage. A tackle on third down is credited when a player makes a stop on third down that results in a fourth down punt. If you make a stop on third down, and the team kicks a field goal on fourth down, then it doesn't count. But it does count if that team misses that field goal. Kind of quirky I know. But basically it only works if it doesn't lead to points and you get the ball back.
Sacks and QB pressures are the same rules mentioned above under blocking. It only counts as a sack when the QB is in the act of throwing. If the QB tucks it in order to run, and is takcled behind the line of scrimmage, it just becomes a tackle for loss. A pressure only counted when the pass is incomplete.
QB Hits are kind of fickle. In the NFL, if a pass rusher strips a quarterback, it is counted as a sack. But for us, unless he actually takes the QB to the ground, then it's going to count as a QB hit. Also if a defender hits the QB during the act of passing, then he'll get credit even if the pass is completed.
Passes defended include
when a defender hits the receiver after the catch that causes him to drop the pass. Like the tackles on third down, the third down credit for a pass defended only counts if it results in a punt or missed field goal.
Last year, picks counted only $1, but now I've decided to make it worth $2. It just makes more sense.
Blown Coverage on a 3rd Down Conversion or a 20+ yard pass ... -$1
Blown Coverage on a Touchdown ... -$2
Missed Tackle that results in a First Down ... -$1
Missed Tackle that results in a Touchdown ... -$2
Key Blocked ... - $1
There will be some occasions when the team is in zone coverage, and I'll have no idea who was at fault for a big play, but usually I'll try my best to attribute "blame."
A new measure is added which is "Key Blocked." It basically is the inverse of what the offensive key block, but will only count runs of 5 yards or more.
It should also be noted that if a team opts to go for it on 4th down, any tackles, PDs, or blown coverages will be treated the same as they would be if they occurred on third down.
Field Goal Made (under 50 yards) ... $1
Field Goal Made (50+ yards) ... $2
Field Goal Missed (under 45 yards) ... -$1
Field Goal Missed (under 35 yards) ... -$2
PAT Missed ... - $1
I tend to think that a 48-yard field goal isn't a chip shot, so I don't think a kicker should be knocked for missing it. But I also don't think he should be given an extra point for making it either. Kickers should be able to make every kick under 35 yards, so they are docked extra for missing.
Touchback on a Kickoff ... $1
Placed Inside 10-yard line ... $1
Placed Inside 5-yard line ... $2
Fair Catch Inside 20-yard line ... $1
Touchback ... - $1
Blocked Punt ... - $1
Punt Return of 20+ yards ... $1
Kickoff Return of 35+ yards ... $1
Touchdown ... $2
OTHER SPECIAL TEAMS
ST Tackle on Punt Return of less than 5 yds ... $1
ST Tackle on Kick Return of less than 20 yds ... $1
Blocked Kick ... $1
Onside Kick Recovery ... $1
Botched Snap/Hold ... -$1
These apply to everyone.
Fumble ... -$1
Fumble Lost ... -$2
Penalty (Less than 15 yards) ... -$1
Penalty (15+ yards) ... -$2
If a defender picks off a pass or recovers a fumble, and then himself fumbles, it won't be counted, unless of course he loses the fumble, and then it will be counted.
I haven't really decided if I was going to include playing time this year. I probably will, but I'll probably wait until the end of the year and just look at the snap counts that Pro Football Focus has. But like last year, it will be based off:
Appearance in a Game (Offense, Defense, or Special Teams) ... $1
Playing 30+ snaps on Offense or Defense ... $2