Moneyball 2012 – Week 10 Review

Sorry for the delay in getting this up. I know the rest of the world has moved on from this game, and re-hashing why the Falcons lost this game so late in the week is not fun.

I thought offensively the Falcons did a lot of good things, but there was too long a gap (particularly the second and third quarters) where they were unable to put points on the board, which caused them to get in too deep a hole to dig out of. One of the trends I’ve noticed with this year’s team as well as past years’ is that they rarely give you a solid three or four quarters of strong play. I think that is a big reason why they have struggled to win big games, including in the playoffs. That sort of inconsistency is fine if you’re facing Carolina, Minnesota, or Oakland, but simply can’t cut it against teams like New Orleans.

Matt Ryan played well, but he seemed to play with a bit of a sped up clock due to the pressure he was seeing. I think that pressure was a major contributor to the drought in scoring. I did like the fact that the Falcons continue to show the ability to generate explosive plays downfield. That is going to be the key to whether this offense can really rise to the top because that was sorely lacking over the first month or so of the season. Gonzalez continues to play at a high level and he might really be doing himself a disservice by retiring. Even if he’s only 75% the player he is this year from now on, he could easily remain a premier TE in this league for another 4 or 5 years. The Falcons clearly missed Jones, and it’s no coincidence that their struggles to put points on the board were primarily when he was out of the game.

This game exposed many of the masses to really how poor the Falcons running game is this year. In key games, they are essentially one dimensional and if they get into a situation where they need to get a single yard on the ground, they are very likely to fail. I don’t really want to point fingers at Koetter, but I do think his decision to run Turner on that 3rd & 1 at the goal line was not a good decision. Frankly, I bet he called it not because he actually thought the play would work but because he didn’t want the talking heads and second guessers talking about how they threw it 3 straight times from the goal line with Michael Turner in the backfield. Or maybe because of some pipe dream from the coaches that there is some semblance of physicality with this offense. Memo to Koetter and Mike Smith, if you thought there was a physical element to this offense, then you haven’t been watching them this year. I suggest you embrace the fact that you are a finesse team. Not saying you should shoot to throw the ball 50 times a game, but in the do or die situations, keep the ball in Matt Ryan’s hands, your best player, rather than Turner who might now be sixth best on offense due to the ascendancy of Jacquizz Rodgers.

The Falcons just can’t win up front. I noticed many instances where if guys could hold a block for more than a split-second, it could have sprung Turner for longer runs. Turner just lacks the burst to take advantage of those short-lived creases, and the Falcons need to be willing to give Rodgers and Snelling more reps as runners. The ground game will still be terrible, but potentially not as terrible.

I don’t wish to pile on Turner as many have done this week, but the Falcons brass have had an overwhelming sense of denial to how much he had left in the tank this year. I can’t be too harsh on him, because Turner has stepped up in recent weeks. But this game showed that in these bigger games, he’s been at best a non-factor and at worst a liability.

Matt Ryan$16$1$0$0$0$0$17.00
Tony Gonzalez$0$0$9$0$0$0$9.00
Jacquizz Rodgers$0$3$4$0$0$0$7.00
Julio Jones$0$0$5$0$0$0$5.00
Roddy White$0$0$5$0$0$0$5.00
Michael Turner$0$2$0$1$0$0$3.00
Harry Douglas$0$0$2$0$0$0$2.00
Mike Johnson$0$0$2$0$0$0$2.00
Peter Konz$0$0$0$1$0$0$1.00
Tommy Gallarda$0$0$0$0$1$0$1.00
Jason Snelling$0$0$0$0$0.5$0$0.50
Justin Blalock$0$0$0$0$0$0$0.00
Tyson Clabo$0$0$0$0$0$0$0.00
D.J. Davis$0$0$0$0$0-$1 -$1.00
Antone Smith$0$0$0$0$0-$1-$1.00
Sam Baker$0$0$0-$1$0$0-$1.00
Todd McClure$0$0$0-$1$0-$1-$2.00

Defensively, this was an embarrassing first half for this unit. They stepped up in the second half and gave the offense numerous opportunities to capitalize which the offense failed to do. The run defense continues to struggle. Akeem Dent had another “rookie” game where he looked lost too often. In light of the decision to cut Ray Edwards, it makes you wonder why the team has been reluctant to do anything there. Edwards is just a non-factor, but Dent actively weakens the defense far too often. When Spoon returns, I really believe Peterson should at least start splitting reps there. It’s was clear this team missed Spoon due to their inability to cover Jimmy Graham, although Spoon probably too would have been overmatched. But I think next time you’ll see him and McClain primarily involved with covering him since Nicholas and Moore can’t handle the duties. Neither are going to stop Graham, but at least they should be better able to be in the vicinity to make the immediate stop after the catch. Meanwhile Nicholas and Moore are still trying to locate Graham four days after the game ended…

Samuel played his best game since joining the team, sort of what we had grown accustomed to with BG. And if there was any semblance of pressure maybe he could give us that boost to overcome the Saints offense that he was clearly intended for. Brees only saw pressure on 3 of his drop backs, as Babs’ hit and Moore’s pressure came on the same play. The rest of the secondary struggled, although many of DeCoud’s mistakes came trying to make up for others. Besides his TD, I do like the fact that the team contained Colston. But that seemed to come at the expense of someone covering Lance Moore,

Biermann, Babineaux continued their streak of strong play. Abe’s cold streak continues although at least this week part of it was due to being doubled. Peters started to look a bit like his old self in the latter part of the game. He is slowly, but surely working himself back into shape.

I think this week’s addition of Tim Toone has everything to do with returning punts. Franks has looked tentative in recent weeks which is why the Falcons pulled him on the final punt. Looked like Gallarda injured himself on the opening kickoff while tripping up the returner. I haven’t seen a lot of Dent on coverage units this year, but I did see him out there covering punts and I don’t think it was accidental that he managed to make a good stop there. He’s an excellent cover guy, and I also think some of the breakdowns and inconsistencies in that unit has a lot to do with his absence.

Matt Bosher$0$5$0$5.00
Asante Samuel$4$0$0$4.00
Jonathan Babineaux$3$0$0$3.00
Matt Bryant$0$2$0$2.00
Ray Edwards$1$0$0$1.00
Peria Jerry$1$0$0$1.00
Corey Peters$1$0$0$1.00
Mike Peterson$1$0$0$1.00
Kroy Biermann$0$0$0$0.00
Chris Owens$0$0-$1-$1.00
Lawrence Sidbury$0$0-$1-$1.00
John Abraham-$1$0$0-$1.00
William Moore-$2$0$0-$2.00
Akeem Dent-$3$0.5$0-$2.50
Thomas DeCoud-$3$0$0-$3.00
Robert McClain-$3$0$0-$3.00
Stephen Nicholas-$3$0$0-$3.00
Dunta Robinson-$3$0$0-$3.00

Advanced Stats from Week 10:

Poor Throws (8): Ryan
Drops (1): Gonzalez
Key Blocks (3): Blalock, Clabo, Turner
Sacks Allowed (0)
Missed Blocks (8):
Baker (2), Blalock (2), Clabo (2), McClure (2)
Pressures Allowed (6): Konz (2), Baker (1.5), Clabo (1), McClure (1), Blalock (0.5)

Tackles For Loss (5): Babineaux, Biermann, Edwards, Jerry, Peters
QB Sacks (1): Nicholas
QB Pressures (2): Babineaux, Moore
QB Hits (1): Babineaux
Passes Defended (4): Samuel (2), Peters (1), Robinson (1)
Blown Coveragees (8): McClain (2), Moore (2), Nicholas (2), Dent (1), Robinson (1)
Missed Tackles (6): DeCoud (2), Dent (1), McClain (1), Robinson (1), Samuel (1)
Key Blocked (5): Abraham, Biermann, Dent, Nicholas, Peters

About the Author

Aaron Freeman
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