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Moneyball 2013 – Week 15 Review

December 17th, 2013

After reviewing the All-22, no doubt this was an ugly win for the Atlanta Falcons over the Washington Redskins.

As I noted yesterday, the offense was fairly conservative in terms of taking deep shots down the field. It appeared that the Falcons only drew up three plays in which Matt Ryan was looking to throw the ball beyond 15 yards. I noticed how often the Falcons run plays that require the receivers to run to the sticks or a yard shy, and that’s it. There was a play-call on a 3rd-and-21 in the second quarter where it was supposed to be a clear-out for Darius Johnson. I get that with the Falcons backed up inside their 10-yard line, that Dirk Koetter didn’t want to risk Ryan taking a deep drop and increase the potential for a safety. But Johnson got no separation from David Amerson on that play and it was just a three-yard gain. That play sort of epitomizes the sort of conservative approach of the offense.

I thought Ryan did some good things, particularly in terms of his movement within the pocket to avoid pressure. There were about three times where he was able to step up in the pocket to avoid pressure and deliver a completion down the field. So much of this season I’ve watched Ryan check it down in the face of pressure, and it was nice to see him using his legs to create space and extend plays.

The only real complaint I have with Ryan in this game was his overthrow on his interception, on one of his few shots downfield at the end of the first half. I like that he was being aggressive, he just needed to make a better throw. This week will go down as one of his lower earnings of the season, but I think that had more to do with play-calling than him playing poorly.

There were problems (as usual) with the pass protection with too many breakdowns. Lamar Holmes struggled to handle Brian Orakpo, with both of his sacks allowed coming against him. Ryan Kerrigan also did good work against Ryan Schraeder on the other side with a sack and a hurry, but also was very effective when matched against our tight ends when they were blocking. I was surprised to see such a big game from defensive end Chris Baker, who got credited with a hurry (against Justin Blalock), hit (against Holmes), and pressure (against Peter Konz). He also mauled Holmes on one of the goal line runs in the second quarter where Steven Jackson got stuffed in the backfield (that was Holmes’ credited missed block). He’s a free agent after this season, so I definitely made a mental note for March.

On the bright side up front, I thought Joe Hawley had another solid game at center, and I was very impressed with Harland Gunn in his limited action on two or three series. He looked much better than Konz did at right guard. I’d say Konz probably had one of his best games of the season, but still struggled too many times. He spent a lot of time on the ground on the opening drive, and for those that don’t know, that’s not a good sign for an offensive linemen. But I’ll give Konz some credit, I think Sunday’s game was the first time he ever hit an assignment on the second level with a nice cut block on a screen pass that Jacquizz Rodgers gained 15 yards on in the third quarter.

But Gunn looked much more violent and physical, playing with better balance and footwork, and doing a better job using his hands. I really liked how quick Gunn was coming off the snap and getting to the second level. He and Hawley are two peas in the same pod, in that what they lack in power and pure strength they make up for with aggressiveness and knowing how to get position against bigger defenders. Despite not having ideal size or strength, Gunn seemed to be the only blocker that was effective at times one-on-one against Baker. That includes Blalock, who probably had his worst game of the season. He wasn’t bad by any means, but got pushed around too much in pass protection, more so than he has to date in 2013.

There isn’t much else that needs to be said about the offense. I thought Steven Jackson ran hard, and his trucking of Josh Wilson will certainly be one of the highlights of the year.

PLAYER
PASS
RUSH
REC
BLK
SPEC
PEN
TOTALS
Steven Jackson$0$9-$1$0$0-$2$6.00
Tony Gonzalez$0$0$5$1$0$0$6.00
Jacquizz Rodgers$0$2$2$0$1$0$5.00
Matt Ryan$6$0$0$0$0-$2$4.00
Harry Douglas$0$0$3$0$0$0$3.00
Joe Hawley$0$0$0$3$0$0$3.00
Roddy White$0$0$2$1$0-$1$2.00
Justin Blalock$0$0$0$2$0$0$2.00
Peter Konz$0$0$0$2$0$0$2.00
Darius Johnson$0$0$1$0$1$0$2.00
Jason Snelling$0$0$0$0$1$0$1.00
Harland Gunn$0$0$0$0.5$0$0$0.50
Levine Toilolo$0$0$0-$1$0$0-$1.00
Ryan Schraeder$0$0$0-$0.5$0-$1-$1.50
Lamar Holmes$0$0$0-$2$0-$3-$5.00

I think the defense benefited greatly from some questionable decisions and inaccurate throws by Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins in his first extended action of the season. The large number of turnovers (seven) was flukey, but several of them were good plays by Falcons defenders.

I’ll give Osi Umenyiora credit, even though he didn’t have a great game, as that forced fumble on the opening series was an excellent tone-setter for the game. For Moneyball purposes, it was counted as a pressure and not a sack/hit because Osi never really touched Cousins, just the ball. I think he was outshined by Jonathan Massaquoi as a pass rusher, who did good work against Tyler Polumbus most of the game. It only led to one official hurry, but there were several times where Massaquoi was a step late from getting a pressure/hurry.

Jonathan Babineaux and Corey Peters both had good days in the middle, particularly against the run. Babs was very disruptive and there were at least two plays where his penetration led to stops by teammates.

Overall, the pass rush was still lacking. Of the six “positive pass rushes” (i.e. sacks/hits/pressures), three of them came when the defenders were unblocked. Given the number of drop backs (46), that’s not good.

It was a pretty quiet day for the starting linebackers in Paul Worrilow and Sean Weatherspoon, but it was nice to see Stephen Nicholas finally make a couple of plays, as well as Joplo Bartu.

Zeke Motta didn’t have a great day. He got credited with the blown coverage on the Fred Davis touchdown, although I’m not sure it was really his fault, since it was a Cover-3 look. But given that he was slow to get over the top, he got tagged for the blown coverage. He was also slow on that touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon, although Desmond Trufant got blamed for the blown coverage because he bit on the double move. Motta also missed a couple of tackles, getting trucked by Alfred Morris on one memorable play at the start of the third quarter, and also got blasted by fullback Darrel Young on the 37-yard run by Morris in the first quarter. He also came close to missing a block that could have resulted in a blocked punt. Thomas DeCoud has caught a lot of well-deserved flak this year, but I’ll be happy if he’s back in the starting lineup next week.

Other than that Garcon touchdown, Trufant had an excellent game. His other blown coverage came late when he stumbled out of his break trying to defend an in-route to Aldrick Robinson.

Both of Robert Alford’s blown coverages came on pick plays in the final two minutes of the game, including the potential game-tying touchdown to Santana Moss. I faulted William Moore for the 62-yard bomb to Robinson, since Alford was expecting safety help on that go route. Moore was slow to turn and run.

Part of the reason it was an ugly game was the sheer number of penalties and mental errors the Falcons had. Stansly Maponga had another penalty for blocking in the back on special teams. Apparently he doesn’t understand that you’re not allowed to do that given he did it just two weeks ago.

I thought Bosher had an excellent day punting, and special teams had its best performance of the year collectively. Jacquizz Rodgers had two nice kickoff returns, as did Robert McClain on a punt.

PLAYER
DEF
SPEC
PEN
TOTALS
Matt Bosher$0$8$0$8.00
Jonathan Babineaux$4$0$0$4.00
Corey Peters$4$0$0$4.00
Osi Umenyiora$3$0$0$3.00
Matt Bryant$0$3$0$3.00
William Moore$2$0$0$2.00
Joplo Bartu$1.5$0$0$1.50
Stephen Nichoas$1.5$0$0$1.50
Malliciah Goodman$1$0$0$1.00
Desmond Trufant$1.5$0-$1$0.50
Stansly Maponga$1$0-$1$0.00
Robert McClain$0$1-$1$0.00
Paul Worrilow$0$0$0$0.00
Peria Jerry-$1$0$0-$1.00
Jonathan Massaquoi-$1$0$0-$1.00
Dominique Franks$0$0-$2-$2.00
Sean Weatherspoon-$0.5$0-$2-$2.50
Zeke Motta-$4$1$0-$3.00
Robert Alford-$2$0-$2-$4.00

Advanced Stats from Week 15:

Poor Throws (4): Ryan
Drops (1): Jackson
Key Blocks (5): Gonzalez (1), Hawley (1), Konz (1), White (1), Gunn (0.5), Schraeder (0.5)
Missed Blocks (3): Holmes, Schraeder, Toilolo
Sacks Allowed (3): Holmes (2), Schraeder (1)
Pressures Allowed (1): Konz
Hurries Allowed (9): Blalock (3), Schraeder (2), Gunn (1), Hawley (1), Holmes (1), Toilolo (1)

Tackles For Loss (1): Nicholas (0.5), Trufant (0.5)
QB Sacks (0)
QB Pressures (4):
Babineaux (2), Maponga (1), Umenyiora (1)
QB Hits (2): Bartu, Weatherspoon
QB Hurries (4): Babineaux, Goodman, Massaquoi, Peters
Passes Defended (4): Trufant (2), Motta (1), Peters (1)
Blown Coverages (9): Alford (2), Motta (2), Trufant (2), Bartu (1), Moore (1), Weatherspoon (1)
Missed Tackles (3): Massaquoi, McClain, Motta
Key Blocked (5): Jerry, Motta, Trufant, Weatherspoon, Worrilow
Stops (6): Peters (2), Alford (1), Trufant (1), Worrilow (1), Bartu (0.5), Weatherspoon (0.5)

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