Predictions Re-visited

At the beginning of September, I added two posts to the site that dealt with predictions in terms of league standings and playoff teams, as well as predictions that were Falcons-centric. Predictions are fun to do and it’s fun to look back and see where you went wrong. First, the Falcons predictions.

I predicted a 9-7 record for the Falcons, and was only wrong on 4 games in my predictions. I flipped the Panthers games, having us win in Week 10 instead of Week 2. It was the other way around. I predicted a loss to the Bears in Week 6 and a win over the Saints in Week 8 as well.

The Falcons offense was a major disappointment from my predictions. I predicted them to finish 4th in both scoring and total offense. They wound up 13th and 15th respectively. But the defense was about on par with my expectations. I predicted 15th and 26th respectively in scoring and total defense, and they finished 14th and 22nd. They were slightly better.

My statistic predictions weren’t on, but many weren’t too far off. Matt Ryan finished about 600 yards short of his passing yards benchmark, averaging 208 yards per game instead of the 220 I predicted. Turner averaged about 87 yards per game in the 10 games he played the majority of, while I predicted him to average about 82 yards per game to reach 1317 rushing yards. Roddy White finished about 100 yards short of the 1200+ receiving yards I predicted. Turner had 10 touchdowns instead of the 12 I predicted. Curtis Lofton had 130 tackles instead of the 118 I predicted. John Abraham had half as many sacks (5.5 vs. 11) as I predicted. Erik Coleman had 0 interceptions and did not lead the team with 3. But the guy that was the free safety, Thomas DeCoud did have 3. But Brent Grimes led the team with 6 picks.

The Falcons had no Pro Bowlers, instead of the 4 I predicted (Ryan, Turner, White, and Gonzo). I had Gonzo catched 71 passes for 838 yards and 8 touchdowns. He wound up 83 catches for 867 yards and 6 touchdowns. Not too far off. Mike Peterson I predicted to finish 2nd on the team with 88 tackles. He did finish 2nd but with 109 tackles. I predicted 29 sacks allowed for our offensive line, with 4 coming on Chris Redman. It was actually 27 actually with 8 coming on Redman. I predicted Jerious Norwood to have 147 total touches in terms of carries and catches, he wound up with only 95, which was less than the number of carries I expected. I did expect Jonathan Babineaux to be among the lead leaders in tackles for loss, predicting 9 and he finished with 8.5. But he had nearly twice as many sacks (6) as I predicted (3.5). Jamaal Anderson was underwhelming. I predicted 8 starts and 2.5 sacks for him. He had 13 starts and 0.5 sacks. Kroy Biermann I thought would have half as many sacks as he wound up with (5.0), and Chauncey Davis only had 1 sack instead of the 3 I predicted.

My rookie predictions were pretty off. Jerry and Moore weren’t the factors I expected due to injuries. Owens I predicted to hae 20 tackles and a pick. He had 26 and 2 picks, and got more playing time than I expected down the stretch. Reynolds, Adkins, and Walker weren’t that far off. Although Walker got more playing time than I expected, although I was right in that it was prompted by injuries.

Now on the to the league-wide predictions:

In the AFC, Cincinnati was the only playoff team I didn’t predict, making it instead of Pittsburgh.

I missed on Philadelphia and New Orleans in the NFC, predicting Chicago and Carolina to go instead.

I predicted the right order of finish in both the AFC and NFC East. I nailed the Browns, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals records exactly. And was within 1 win of 5 other teams. And was within 2 wins of 11 other teams. I was most off with the Bears, who won 6 less games than I predicted of 13. The Patriots were next off, by winning 4 less games than I predicted. The Bengals, Colts, and Saints all won 4 more games than I predicted.

Of course I had the Steelers and Bears meeting in the Super Bowl, and neither team made the playoffs.

My league MVP was Brady, and it appears most likely to be Peyton Manning or Drew Brees who will win the award. I said DeMarcus Ware would win Defensive MVP, but it seems that either Charles Woodson or Darrelle Revis will win that.

I picked Sanchez and Raji for my rookies of the year. I almost picked Cushing, but decided not to. But it looks like Cushing and Percy Harvin will be the rookies of the year.

Tomlin was my coach of the year pick, but I’m thinking this will go to Jim Caldwell, Sean Payton, or Norv Turner.

Wow, I was way off on a lot of these predictions.

About the Author

Aaron Freeman
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