Another bad week against the spread, where I went 5-10 in Week 6 picking against the spread. Ten of the fifteen games last week were decided by two-score margins, and a few of them were complete surprises. Jacksonville covered the huge spread against Denver, and both St. Louis and Carolina obliterated Houston and Minnesota, respectively. And Brandon Weeden ultimately proved the downfall of my picks with his terrible play, allowing the Lions to get a 14-point road win.
I did better straight up, going 9-6, which is the first time I’ve finished above .500 since Week 4. That brings my season total there to 57-35, much better than my spread record, which is 43-49.
Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
Thursday, October 17 at 8:25 pm ET on NFL Network
Line: Cardinals (+6.5)
This should be a solid defensive matchup between two of the better defenses in the league. That usually means that the game is going to be decided by one score or less. The problem for the Cardinals is that their offense is not very good and thus if they get behind early, they will struggle to make it close. But the positive for them is that they are playing at home on a short-week, and thus with their defense playing up to par, the Seahawks shouldn’t get off to a fast start.
The way the Cardinals can win this game is by controlling the line of scrimmage on defense, because we know their offensive line cannot do so on the opposite side of the ball. I have enough confidence in the Cardinals defense at home to keep this game relatively close and low-scoring.
Spread Pick: Cardinals
Straight Pick: Seahawks