I’m content with my picks last week. I finished 7-8 against the spread, but 11-4 picking games straight up. That puts my season totals at 58-48 and 65-40-1 against the spread and straight, respectively.
I need to get my mojo back on the Thursday night games though. I haven’t picked the winner against the spread since Week 3 when the Falcons stomped the Bucs. I started the season 3-0 on Thursday nights, but have gone 0-4 against the spread since. Hopefully, this is the week I get back in to the winner’s column.
San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1)
Thursday, October 23 at 8:30 pm ET on CBS/NFL Network
*Line: Broncos (-7.5)
The Chargers played the Broncos within a score in all three of their contests last season. Their most successful formula was to run the ball and limit Peyton Manning’s possessions. Chargers rookie running back Branden Oliver has played well in recent weeks and gives the Chargers and opportunity to do that. But the Broncos defense is much improved from a year ago, and I just don’t know that the Chargers will have as much success possessing and moving the ball as did in last year’s games.
There’s no doubt the Chargers will be confident, and I think there’s a decent chance they keep it under a touchdown, but I’ll take the Broncos at home. I don’t have know if the numbers back it up, but betting on Manning in primetime games seems to be a relatively safe option.
Throw in the fact that the Chargers may be without their two top defensive backs: Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) tonight, it doesn’t bode too well for the Chargers being able to slow Manning down that much.
Spread Pick: Broncos
Straight Pick: Broncos