Pudge’s Picks – Week 11

Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Sean Weatherspoon returns in Week 11

I’m starting to do a bit better on my picks as of late. I hope that continues this week, shooting to get to 8 or 9 wins against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on FOX

Line: Bucs (+1.5)

I’m hopeful that Sean Weatherspoon’s return to the lineup this week will give the Falcons the defensive boost they will need to get stops and turnovers since I have little confidence that the offense will be able to move the ball, given the injury to Tony Gonzalez limiting him. I suspect Revis will be able to put the clamps on Roddy White, and we’ll see another week of bad Falcons offense.

Spread Pick: Bucs
Straight Pick: Bucs

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on CBS

Line: Bills (-1.5)

Santonio Holmes will be back for the first time since Week 4, and had a big game against hte Bills in Week 3. But that was a game where the Bills were without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd. I suspect teh Bills defense will be ready to step up and slow down the Jets offense. The question is whether E.J. Manuel will play well enough to put up enough points make the Bills successful at home.

Spread Pick: Bills
Straight Pick: Bills

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on CBS

Line: Bears (-2.5)

The injury to Charles Tillman could be devastating to the Bears, but it shouldn’t matter against the Ravens, whose offense has been about as bad as Atlanta’s. But Baltimore has remained competitive because they’ve generated a few big plays, and gotten production from their defense and special teams. I’ve learn to never trust Joe Flacco on the road.

Spread Pick: Bears
Straight Pick: Bears

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on CBS

Line: Bengals (-6.5)

Cleveland beat Cincinnati earlier this year mainly because Andy Dalton stinks, turnovers, and Joe Haden’s ability to keep A.J. Green in check. Now the Bengals are without Geno Atkins, who could easily dominate Cleveland’s weak interior offensive line. Jason Campbell has been efficient and that Browns defense I suspect will once again make the difference.

Spread Pick: Browns
Straight Pick: Bengals

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on FOX

Line: Steelers (+2.5)

Despite having a better year, the Lions notoriously struggle against good teams on the road. But the positive for them is that Pittsburgh isn’t a particularly good team. The Lions pass rush could be very effective against the weak Steeler offensive line. The Steelers pass defense has been very productive this year, but I think that is mainly due to not facing top-tier competition. The one time they did, the Patriots gashed them two weeks ago. Stafford and Johnson will be an interesting test for them to see where they really stack.

Spread Pick: Lions
Straight Pick: Lions

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on CBS

Line: Texans (-6.5)

Matt McGloin will be starting for the Raiders, and I don’t think he’ll be putting a Brian Hoyer, Thad Lewis, or Case Keenum and look good coming off the bench. I expect Keenum to get his first win of the season this week.

Spread Pick: Texans
Straight Pick: Texans

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on FOX

Line: Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles have been pretty bad at home, and the Redskins need to get this win in order to get back into the NFC East race. The problem is that the Redskins defense is bad and this Eagles offense has been clicking under Nick Foles recently, and thus this should finally be the week that the Eagles get a home win.

Spread Pick: Eagles
Straight Pick: Eagles

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Sunday, November 17 at 1 pm ET on FOX

Line: Jaguars (+6.5)

The Jags got their first win last week, thanks to a very sloppy performance by the Titans. This is the first Cardinals road game since Week 6. I don’t know if that means anything, but it’s hard to imagine going 5 weeks without playing outside the comforts of home, doesn’t bode well for a good road performance even against the lowly Jaguars. But I’m going to need a larger spread to take the Jaguars.

Spread Pick: Cardinals
Straight Pick: Cardinals

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)
Sunday, November 17 at 4:05 pm ET on CBS

Line: Dolphins (+1.5)

The Dolphins are in disarray, and their offense was terrible before all of this Martin-Incognito stuff broke.

Spread Pick: Chargers
Straight Pick: Chargers

Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
Sunday, November 17 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

Line: Giants (-6.5)

The Giants have historically played the Packers very well, and Scott Tolzien is expected to start this week. Even with Jason Pierre-Paul’s status being up in the air, I don’t think things bode well for Tolzien against that Giants pass rush.

Spread Pick: Packers
Straight Pick: Giants

Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1)
Sunday, November 17 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

Line: Seahawks (-13.5)

The Seahawks haven’t been as dominant at home this season, and part of that has to do with the injuries they’ve suffered up front. Unlike the Falcons, the Vikings defensive line could potentially take advantage of those injuries. But Max Unger and Breno Giacomini are expected back this week, which means that the Jared Allen vs. whoever lines up at LT is the key matchup Minnesota needs to exploit. They also need to get Adrian Peterson going, which I don’t think quite happens.

Spread Pick: Vikings
Straight Pick: Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Sunday, November 17 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

Line: Saints (-3.5)

Unlike Seattle, New Orleans has been dominant at home. But I like the potential matchup of the 49ers, except they’re pretty beat up. Injuries to Jimmy Graham and Kenny Vaccaro could have a significant impact against the Saints. But similarly, Vernon Davis and Eric Reid are also beat up for the 49ers. I think the 49ers really need a big game from Frank Gore and the ground game, and if they get it, this one could be very close.

Spread Pick: 49ers
Straight Pick: Saints

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)
Sunday, November 17 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

Line: Broncos (-8.5)

I had a dream the other night that the Chiefs won this game because they rushed for 308 yards. Now I doubt the Chiefs are that successful on the ground, but I do think the Chiefs have what it takes to control the line of scrimmage and win this game on the road.

Spread Pick: Chiefs
Straight Pick: Chiefs

New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Monday, November 18 at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN

Line: Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers defense has been very good, but I think the Patriots offensive line can keep them in check. Plus Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola should be able to exploit weaknesses in the Panthers secondary.

Spread Pick: Patriots
Straight Pick: Patriots

About the Author

Aaron Freeman
Founder of FalcFans.com

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