Pudge’s Picks – Week 12 2014

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Sanchez

On this week’s podcast, I picked the Raiders to beat the Chiefs. But in my picks on Thursday, I picked the Chiefs to win amidst a Raiders cover. I should have stuck to my guns. So I will do that on Sunday, and won’t renege on any of my podcast picks, even the ones that I was thinking about reconsidering. I’m looking at you, Rams.

Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on CBS

*Line: Falcons (-3.5)

If this was being played in Cleveland, I would almost certainly choose the Browns. But I think being able to return to the Georgia Dome for the first time in forever will give the Falcons the needed boost to beat a better overall Browns team.

Spread Pick: Browns
Straight Pick: Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on FOX

*Line: Bears (-5.5)

The Bears need an opponent like the Bucs to pad their record. I don’t see the Bucs dominating the Bears offensive line as thoroughly as they did the Redskins a week ago.

Spread Pick: Bears
Straight Pick: Bears

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on CBS

*Line: Texans (-1.5)

The Texans had no problem running against the Browns last week, and the Bengals run defense is marginally better. But not having Arian Foster could be a critical loss. But more importantly, I expect A.J. Green to have a big week this week. And usually when that happens, the Bengals are hard to beat.

Spread Pick: Bengals
Straight Pick: Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on CBS

*Line: Colts (-13.5)

The Colts waxed the Jaguars to the tune of 44-17 in Jacksonville in Week 3. So it makes absolute sense that they will do even more terrible things in Indianapolis this week. But Jacksonville hasn’t had any embarrassing, lopsided losses since September. So it’s possible that this is a lot more competitive especially since the Colts have lost a couple of key starters to injuries: Dwayne Allen, Gosder Cherilus, Greg Toler and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Spread Pick: Colts
Straight Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on FOX

*Line: Vikings (+9.5)

I think the Packers shouldn’t have too much trouble beating the Vikings, but I also wonder if the fact that this is a division game means that it could be a bit more competitive than it should. But then again, I remember that Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil will be asked to block Julius Peppers this week. And Kalil is also nursing a knee injury. Frankly, I don’t see Minnesota scoring enough points to keep pace with Green Bay.

Spread Pick: Packers
Straight Pick: Packers

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on FOX

*Line: Patriots (-6.5)

This is likely going to be a tough matchup for the Patriots given the question marks they have along their offensive line. They’ve played much better as of late, but they also haven’t played a guy like Ndamukong Suh. But I also don’t trust the Lions on the road, especially against a defensive mind like Bill Belichick’s.

Spread Pick: Lions
Straight Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
Sunday, November 23 at 1 pm ET on CBS

*Line: Eagles (-11.5)

The Titans showed a little bit of life last week against the Steelers, but not enough to pull out the win. The Eagles got waxed by the Packers, but should find a much easier matchup this week at home. But it’s a big spread, and I’m not sure I’m ready to buy into Mark Sanchez quite enough yet.

Spread Pick: Titans
Straight Pick: Eagles

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4)
Sunday, November 23 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

*Line: Chargers (-5.5)

The Rams pass rush is starting to live up to the hype after a slow start this year. Philip Rivers is beat up and playing behind a weak offensive line, which is not a good matchup.

Spread Pick: Rams
Straight Pick: Rams

Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Sunday, November 23 at 4:05 pm ET on FOX

*Line: Seahawks (-6.5)

The expected absence of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald will hurt the Cardinals. But their defense is no joke, and I see this being a low-scoring affair. But unlike Detroit, Seattle has a quarterback in Russell Wilson that I trust can make the necessary plays to win a winnable game in the fourth quarter. I also think that Seattle’s secondary will make Drew Stanton pay a bit more than Detroit’s did last week for the bad throws and mistakes he’s prone to make from time to time.

Spread Pick: Cardinals
Straight Pick: Seahawks

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)
Sunday, November 23 at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

*Line: Broncos (-7.5)

The Broncos offensive line could have some problems against Cameron Wake given that Louis Vasquez is expectd to start at right tackle for the third week in a row. But I also think that the Broncos defense should be able to handle the Dolphins offense fairly well, given they have their own issues along the offensive line.

Spread Pick: Dolphins
Straight Pick: Broncos

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Sunday, November 23 at 4:25 pm ET on FOX

*Line: 49ers (-8.5)

The Redskins couldn’t even score more than seven points against the Bucs defense. ‘Nuff said.

Spread Pick: 49ers
Straight Pick: 49ers

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)
Sunday, November 23 at 8:30 pm ET on NBC

*Line: Giants (+3.5)

The Cowboys are coming off a bye, are healthier and playing the Giants. If this was in Week 17, I’d be all about the Giants, but it’s not.

Spread Pick: Cowboys
Straight Pick: Cowboys

New York Jets (2-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Monday, November 24 at 7 pm ET on CBS

*Line: Bills (-2.5)

The Bills should get a boost from the expected return of running back Fred Jackson this week. But I think the turmoil and upheaval of the snow forcing this game to be played in Detroit on an odd day, coupled with the fact that the Bills haven’t really practiced this week is enough to allow the Jets to take advantage.

Spread Pick: Jets
Straight Pick: Jets

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)
Monday, November 24 at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN

*Line: Saints (-3.5)

The Ravens are a tough matchup against the Saints given their front seven, but they have holes in their secondary. The Ravens only “quality win” on the road this year has been against the Browns in Week 3. I think the Saints pull out of their two-game home skid this week.

Spread Pick: Saints
Straight Pick: Saints

About the Author

Aaron Freeman
Founder of FalcFans.com