Ryan and I are back for another episode discussing last week’s win over the Carolina Panthers, and debate how big a win it was for the Falcons going forward.  We disagree about how big a road test that the Falcons will have this week against the Detroit Lions, as Ryan is prepped to serve up a big plate of crow to me this weekend if the Falcons pull out the victory. I don’t have a lot of confidence in some of the matchups, notably Megatron and Suh going against the Falcons. Later, Ryan makes his playoff picks. We also discuss plans for the bye week, Halloween costumes, Ryan’s non-Texas leanings, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, and whether Smitty is a better coach when he’s happy or angry.

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Falcons wideout Julio Jones was listed as doubtful on Friday’s injury report for the team’s Week 7 matchup against the Detroit Lions. Jones missed last week’s game against the Carolina Panthers, after suffering a hamstring injury during the fourth quarter of the team’s loss to the Green Bay Packers the previous week. Jones did not practice at all this week and looks like he will miss a second straight game.

If Jones misses the game, he will be joined by cornerback Chris Owens, who was listed as out as he still recovers from a concussion he suffered against the Packers. Owens missed last week’s Panther game as well due to the same injury.

Four Falcon players were listed as questionable on their injury report: defensive end John Abraham (groin), offensive tackle Sam Baker (back), center Todd McClure (knee), and guard Garrett Reynolds (ankle). Abraham sat out the Packer game due to the injury, but returned last week against the Panthers. He was able to have limited participation in Thursday and Friday’s practices. If he misses the game, he’ll likely be replaced by Kroy Biermann at right defensive end. Baker missed both Wednesday and Thursday practices, but was back in limited duty on Friday. Baker suffered from durability concerns his first two years in Atlanta, but has managed to start 26 straight games without injury. If he sits out this weekend’s game, he’ll be replaced by offensive tackle Will Svitek in the starting lineup at left tackle. Svitek started twice in place of Baker during 2009. McClure has been in and out of the lineup throughout this year due to a knee injury. His backup Joe Hawley has already started three games thus far this year, pulling his last start against the Packers. Reynolds suffered his ankle injury against the Packers, but has managed to finish that game as well as start last week. Like Abraham, he sat out Wednesday’s practice, but was able to return on a limited basis each of the past two days.

Also listed on the injury repot are defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux (Knee), tight end Tony Gonzalez (elbow), safety James Sanders (hamstring), and wide receiver Roddy White (knee). Babineaux, Gonzalez, and White all participated fully in the three days of practice this week, but have been limited by their respective injuries somewhat in past weeks. Sanders missed last week’s game against the Panthers but was able to go fully in Friday’s practice.

For the Lions, running back Jahvid Best has been declared out with a concussion. Wide receiver Rashied Davis (foot) and safety Vincent Fuller (elbow) both were listed as doubtful on Friday’s injury report. Cornerback Aaron Berry (groin) and defensive end Willie Young (calf) were also listed as questionable.

Through the first three games of the 2011 season, the Falcons offense has been a disappointment. Things that the Falcons did very well in 2010, they have not done very well in 2011. Last year, the Falcons were 3rd in the league when it came to converting third downs. This year, they are currently tied for 13th. A year ago they were 2nd in the league in time of possession, this year they are 27th. They were the least penalized team in the league in 2010, and now they are the 9th most penalized team. The Falcons were last in the league in generating explosive pass plays, and now have made a minimal improvement to 27th ranked in that regards.

The Falcons seem to have only had success scoring points when they are operating in their no huddle attack. That has caused many fans to levy blame upon offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey for the team’s struggles when he’s calling plays. And rightfully so, but it should not be forgotten that one of the reasons why the no huddle is so effective for the Falcons and other NFL teams is because it forces defenses to play vanilla against you. It’s much easier to execute an offense when you don’t have to worry about exotic blitzes, very basic coverages, and the defense playing on its heels and out of breath.

Of course Matt Ryan seems at his best in the no huddle. Any quarterback worth his salt should be.

But what has gone wrong in Atlanta? Are we witnessing a sluggish start for the Falcons, or is this essentially what we’re going to see the rest of the way?

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I’ll try to post a handful of matchups that favor the Falcons as well as their opponents for each game they play this year. The Falcons open the season against the Chicago Bears, a team that has a similar style and mentality as they do, which is to run the football and play good defense. While the Falcons want to be a more explosive team, they still aren’t likely to veer to far from that sort of identity.

Despite having eccentric Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator, the Bears in the latter half of the season began to play to their strengths, which is one of the reasons why they won their division and finished as the NFC’s second seed behind the Falcons. That strength is their defense, and offensively they decided to be more conservative and not put the turnover-prone Cutler in situations where he had to bear the load.

The Falcons will want to get into a position where the Bears will be forced to throw the ball frequently, that way the Falcons defense can potentially create turnovers by preying on the Bears inexperienced offensive line and Cutler’s propensity to make mistakes.

Defensively, the Bears biggest weakness is their secondary, and if this game becomes an aerial battle, the matchups favor the Falcons.

Matchups I Like

 

Falcons pass rush vs. Bears O-line

As I wrote in August, I think the Falcons pass rushers should be licking their chops to face this Chicago Bears front. While the Bears did show some improvement over the course of the preseason as their new unit tried to gel together, it’s probably not enough where this matchup tilts anywhere close to the Bears favor. John Abraham will be facing J’Marcus Webb, a player that he should give major fits due to his ability to go right past him with speed or through him with power. On the opposite side is Ray Edwards, and he’ll face rookie Gabe Carimi. Edwards should have some veteran savvy to throw his way, being able to use his speed to get around the edge as well. Throw in Kroy Biermann getting some looks as well on either side of the line and you have a lot of heat coming off the corner for the Falcons all day to get pressure on Jay Cutler.

And a player that should not be forgotten in this matchup is Jonathan Babineaux. At left defensive tackle, he’ll be matched up against new right guard Lance Louis, who struggled in a handful of starts last year. Back in 2009, Babineaux routinely dominated replacement level guards, and if he intends to get back to that sort of level this year, then doing the same against Louis can be a very good tone setter for this season.

The average NFL offensive line gives up slightly more than 2 sacks per game. It should not be surprising if the Falcons are able to double or even triple the average production against the Bears defensive line.
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On Monday, I stated that the team’s first priority when it comes to free agency if and when it begins was re-signing tackle Tyson Clabo. But shortly after, the Falcons are going to be in a situation where they are asked to prioritize one of their guards.

 

Ideally, the Falcons can bring back both left guard Justin Blalock and right guard Harvey Dahl. But they may be put in a situation where they have to push for one to stay, and be willing to let the other walk when it comes to negotiatons.

And there is certainly is a worthwhile debate on either side when deciding which of the two players should be kept first.

PRODUCTION

First, let’s start break down their 2010 seasons statistically. I’ll be using Moneyball for this. Over the course of the entire 2010 season they were about even, winding up with $24 earned for Blalock and $25 for Dahl.

Blalock’s production was fairly consistent throughout the entire season, earning $5, $7, $5.5, and $6.5 in each respective quarter. Dahl’s spiked in the middle of the season, starting with a $4.5 over the first quarter, then $10.5, $10, and finishing with $0 earned in the final quarter of the season. Clearly we can see that Blalock ended the season relatively strong in comparison to Dahl.

Blalock did get better as the year went on. In the first half of the season, he tallied 10 missed blocks and 5 pressures allowed. In the final 8 games, he had only 3.5 missed blocks and no pressures allowed. That dichotomy was not seen with Dahl, as he had 5 missed blocks in each half of the season, and allowed 3 pressures in the first half and 4.5 in the second half of the year.
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Sam Baker has had an up and down career thus far with the Falcons. During the early part of the 2009 season, Baker was very good. Then he hurt his ankle halfway through that season and essentially was questionable on the team’s injury report the remainder of the year, and had his share of struggles. With a healthy campaign in 2010, he should have bounced back and put together a strong effort. That was not the case.

Baker is in a position this year where he needs to put together a strong season or else the Falcons will be in a position where they have to start making a change at the position. Left tackle is one of the four premium positions in the NFL, along with quarterback, pass rusher, and cornerback. Finding quality at the position often takes a significant investment. Twenty two of the starting 32 left tackles in the league last year were first or second round picks, with half of the total coming from first round picks alone. And the teams that did not have those higher picks at the position often paid for it, with nearly half of them using draft picks on left tackles this past April.

Baker has two more years left on his contract, and he’s very likely to play out his deal here in Atlanta. But if he does not improve in 2011, it’s very likely that he’ll have some competition come 2012. It will likely be a situation where the team will try and add someone next off-season to push Baker next summer or at least an insurance policy if they choose not to keep him the following year.

Baker has some limitations as far as his potential goes at the position. He’s not the biggest or strongest guy coupled with short arms means his technique, footwork, and hand use has to be that much better than guys that are more physically blessed.

And these limitations become even more apparent in the running game because for much of the past two seasons, Baker has contributed next to nothing in that area. And more so than his pass protection inconsistencies, that is the most glaring weakness that he has. On a team that wants to be a balanced offensive attack and be able to wear down opponents, you need all five blockers up front pulling their weight.

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The Falcons continued to garner postseason honors with four members being named to the Associated Press’s All-Pro team. Wide receiver Roddy White and defensive end John Abraham were both named first team All-Pros, while running back Michael Turner and fullback Ovie Mughelli earned second team honors.

White was also named to the PFW/PFWA All-NFL team earlier this month. This is the first time White has been honored by the Associated Press. He held the most votes among the wide receivers with 47 out of 50 AP voters casting him on their ballots. Abraham earned his 2nd 1st-team All-Pro honors, last receiving it in 2001. He received 21 votes for second most among defensive ends.

Turner had the third most votes among running backs with 8, but also received one vote as a fullback. Mughelli had 13 votes, second most among fullbacks.

Also receiving votes from the Falcons were kicker Matt Bryant, running back Jason Snelling, offensive tackles Tyson Clabo and Sam Baker, as well as defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux and cornerback Brent Grimes. Bryant received 4 votes out of 50 AP voters, fifth-most among kickers. Snelling received 1 vote, placing him seventh among fullbacks. Both Clabo and Baker received a vote each, with twelve other offensive tackles receiving more votes. Babineaux also had a single vote, placing him tied for sixth among defensive tackles. Grimes had 3 votes, seventh-most among cornerbacks.

I’m not sure how regular this will be as the season unfolds, but I’ll try to do one each week if I can. Since this is the first game of the season, I really don’t have any excuses not to do it. But I’m going to be looking at the different matchups that I like and don’t like as the Falcons prepare for the Steelers.

Matchups I Like

Dennis Dixon vs. the Falcons defense

I know many Falcon fans were worried about the possibility of Dixon starting this week instead of Byron Leftwich. They’d rather face the statue of Leftwich rather than the mobile Dixon.

I’m not too worried. Dixon will likely be able to make some plays with his legs, but his accuracy and decision making are the biggest areas of concerns for the Steelers offense. He has only had limited work with the first team offense, so he isn’t likely to be on the same page with most of his receivers. He is only making his second NFL start, so he will also be prone to making a lot of rookie mistakes. How he recognizes defense, how he sees the field, and whether he can make good decisions and put the ball on the money with accuracy to his receivers must be a major concern for the Steelers brass, otherwise they would not have been so reluctant to start him.

The Falcons will likely look to confine him to the pocket where he is going to be less dangerous. Safeties Thomas DeCoud and Erik Coleman will likely be a big reason why if the Falcons are able to take advantage, sitting back and reading Dixon’s eyes and breaking plays on the ball. The hallmark of young quarterbacks is a tendency to stare down his targets, which allows defensive backs, especially safeties a greater opportunity to jump routes and break up plays.

Steelers Right OL vs. Falcons Left DL

This matchup features rookie center Maurkice Pouncey, right guard Trai Essex, and right tackle Flozell Adams versus the Falcons left side of their line which will feature mainly Kroy Biermann at left end, Peria Jerry at left tackle, and Jamaal Anderson splitting time at both spots.

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Carroll Rogers of the AJC reports that the Falcons expect defensive end John Abraham to suit up against the San Diego Chargers this upcoming weekend. Abraham suffered a stinger against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago and has been limited since, although he has played in and started both games since.

Rogers also reports that offensive tackle Sam Baker is not expected to play this week against the Chargers, but that his rehabilitation is going well per head coach Mike Smith. Per Rogers, there is a possibility that Baker may be able to make it back on the field before the end of the regular season, with a shot at playing in any of the final three games.

Defensive tackle Grady Jackson should be available for the Falcons for at least another week. Jackson had a hearing for his appeal of a four-game suspension meted out by the league in October this past Friday. But per the AJC, Jackson’s representatives aren’t expected to hear back from the league whether or not his suspension will be lifted until after December 1, meaning that he should not miss the Chargers game on November 30.

The AJC reports that the Falcons have shut down offensive tackle Renardo Foster for the rest of the season. Foster was placed on the team’s physically-unable-to-perform list at the beginning of the season due to him recovering from a knee injury he suffered last season. The Falcons had until this week to make a decision on whether to activate him or to place him on injured reserve. The team chose the latter option, meaning his 2008 season is over before it really began.

The team also signed defensive end Willie Evans to the practice squad to fill the void left by Eric Weems. The team would have re-signed Brandon Miller to the practice squad, but he was claimed by the Seattle Seahawks.

The Falcons also released their final injury report, listing ten players as questionable for this week’s game and three players as out. Sam Baker (hip/back), Kindal Moorehead (foot), and Laurent Robinson (hamstring) were listed as out.

Brent Grimes (knee/ankle), Ben Hartsock (back), Chris Houston (ribs), and Jerious Norwood (rib) were all listed as questionable, but did not miss any practice time all week. Roddy White sat out Wednesday and Thursday practices due to a bruised back, but did have full participation on Friday despite being listed as questionable. Grady Jackson (knee) missed Friday practice due to his appeal of his four-game suspension. Todd Weiner, the most likely candidate to replace Baker in the starting lineup once more, was limited the past two days due to a knee injury. If Weiner cannot go, then Wayne Gandy will likely start on Sunday versus the Carolina Panthers.