The Tampa Bay Bucs are going to be an interesting team to watch in 2013. Josh Freeman is entering the final year of his contract, and recently it was reported that the Bucs wouldn’t mind seeing rookie Mike Glennon get an opportunity.

How Josh Freeman handles this sort of adversity could impact the next five years of that franchise. I think Freeman is a talented quarterback, but I’ve never thought he had the intangibles to be a top-level starter. I liked Mike Glennon a lot, as he was the highest-rated quarterback in this draft class for me.

But I don’t think Glennon will really work as a rookie starter. The main issues I had with Glennon was that he wasn’t particularly mobile, nor does he have the intangibles that I think he could flourish as a rookie starter. In Dan Pompei’s piece linked to above, they make the comparison to Joe Flacco.

I do think that fits somewhat. You may or may not be surprised to discover that I don’t think Flacco possesses ideal intangibles. Flacco is a player that I think has benefited greatly from being on the right team. In Baltimore, he became a rookie starter because of injuries to Troy Smith and Kyle Boller. He made the most of that opportunity. But I think it helped greatly how much of the Ravens were a run-first, defensive-minded team that already had a leader in Ray Lewis. Flacco essentially never really had to assert himself as the guy up to this point. Moving forward with Lewis and others gone, and fresh off a Super Bowl he will now.

I think that’s why I’ll likely always consider Matt Ryan to be a better overall quarterback than Flacco. I know Flacco has better physical tools, and he’ll make throws look easy that Ryan will never be able to make in a million years. And for that, there are those that will consider him the better player. But I think given what Ryan has had to be in Atlanta from the very beginning, a stabilizing force, that makes him the better overall player. I just believe that if you had put Ryan in Baltimore in 2008, you’d likely to get the same if not better results. If you had put Flacco in Atlanta, I don’t think he would have had the same success. Flacco reached a level the past two years (running no huddle) that Ryan was doing Day One.

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Allen and I take part in another two-part episode in which we go week by week, breaking down the Falcons 2013 schedule. We look at favorable matchups that the Falcons can exploit along with our thoughts on how good the Falcons 2013 opponents will be this upcoming fall. In the first part, we look at the first half of the season culminating in our analysis of the Falcons Week 10 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. You’ll hear our thoughts on each of the Falcons first nine opponents, as well as insights on how the Falcons defensive line and offensive lines will look in 2013 and odds that the Falcons pick up a veteran free agent such as John Abraham, Richard Seymour, or Karlos Dansby before the summer starts. You’ll also hear our breakdown of how Darrelle Revis stacks up against Julio Jones, and Ron Rivera in comparison to Mike Smith.

In the second part of our schedule breakdown extravanganza, Allen and I take a look at the Falcons final seven opponents beginning in Week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We talk about how good a year Steven Jackson might have, along with whether or not the Falcons have made enough improvements on defense to handle the New Orleans Saints. You’ll also hear our thoughts on how the division race in the NFC East may shake out as well as some of the other NFC squads that could be wildcard contenders. We cap things off with our insights on how the 2013 season as a whole should play out for the Falcons.

Part 1:

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Duration: 51 minutes

Part 2:

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Duration: 55 minutes

Allen writes for TJRSports.com as well as the Bleacher Report. His twitter handle is: @Allen_Strk.

If you have any questions and comments, you can hit us up on Twitter, post in the forums in the podcast thread, or drop an e-mail at: pudge@falcfans.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can also subscribe directly to our feed at the following URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/falcfans/LXSt

This weekend the Falcons conducted their first rookie mini-cap. Forty-eight players participated, including 24 undrafted free agents that signed contracts with the team and 17 that did not and are only in Flowery Branch for a tryout. There’s also the six 2012 rookies that were carried on last year’s practice squad and Brian Banks.

It’s going to be interesting to see if any of the tryout players earn a spot. I expect at least one will. Last season, three players were signed following their tryout. I have not seen really any of them, but I did like a bit of what I saw of Marcus Sales in a few Syracuse games I watched.

The site has grown fairly quiet since the draft, and I apologize. I have been traveling heavily for my job, and just don’t spend as much time maintaining the site on the road. That travel should end after this upcoming week, and I fully intend on making up for it. I still am going to post scouting reports on the six remaining Falcons draft picks. You can also expect several new podcast episodes in the coming weeks, hopefully to stem the “doldrums” that exist in the NFL calendar between the draft and the openings of training camps.

I also intend to write several articles looking at many of the up and coming young players on the Falcons roster, as well as veteran players that could play key roles in 2013.

As for the remainder of this column, I will in fact use it to give some of my own takeaways and commentary on many of last week’s NFL events and revelations.

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The Jaguars reportedly used advanced statistics to help them with their decision to select an offensive tackle with their top pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. I think it’s a promising revelation for the league going forward. Advanced statistics are relatively in their infancy as far as the NFL is concerned in comparison to baseball (which is approaching middle age) and basketball (adolescence). But as the years progress and the techniques evolve, I think we’ll see advanced stats become more commonplace on the professional football landscape. Maybe we will reach a point, where we could effectively calculate the “PER” of a left guard. PER refers to Player Efficiency Rating, which is supposedly the all-in-one stat for basketball.

I don’t think advanced stats will ever reach the point they do in baseball and basketball. Football features 11 players, and it’s very difficult to calculate how each one of those players relate to one another. It’s much easier to calculate the efficiency of units rather than individuals.

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Keeping track of all the free agent activity, interest, signings, and cuts for the Atlanta Falcons. You can view all the Falcons free agents by clicking here.

Coming

DE Osi Umenyiora, ex-Giants (Story) (signed 3/27, 2 yrs./$8.5 million)
RB Steven Jackson, ex-Rams (Story) (signed 3/14, 3 yrs./$12 million)

Going

OT Tyson Clabo (Story)
QB Luke McCown (signed 4/1 by Saints; 1 yr.)
CB Brent Grimes (Story) (signed 3/30 by Dolphins; 1 yr./$5.5 million)
CB Chris Owens (Story) (signed 3/22 by Browns; 1 yr.)
DT Vance Walker (Story) (signed 3/18 by Raiders; 1 yr.)
OT Will Svitek (Story) (signed 3/17 by Patriots)
OC Todd McClure (Story) (retirement)
DE Lawrence Sidbury (Story) (signed 3/12 by Colts, 1 yr.)
DE John Abraham
CB Dunta Robinson (signed 3/8 by Chiefs; 3 yrs./$13.8 million)
RB Michael Turner

Staying

OT Sam Baker (Story) (UFA, re-sign 3/12; 6 yrs./$41.1 million)
TE Tony Gonzalez (Story) (UFA, agreed to return 3/12; 2 yrs./$14 million)
OG Garrett Reynolds (Story) (UFA, re-signed 3/9; 2 yrs./$2.6 million)
S William Moore (Story) (UFA, re-signed 3/9; 5 yrs./$29.5 million)
RB Antone Smith (Story) (RFA, re-signed 3/5; 2 yrs./$1.425 million)

Rumored Interest

DE Elvis Dumervil, Broncos (Source: Denver Post) (signed 3/26 by Ravens, 5 yrs.)
DE Dwight Freeney, Colts (Source: Pro Football Talk)
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (Source: Albert Breer, NFL.com) (signed 3/13 by Cardinals; 1 yr.)
DT Richard Seymour, Raiders (Source: Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports)
QB Drew Stanton, Colts (Source: Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports) (signed 3/13 by Cardinals; 3 yrs.)

Brent Grimes is gone. Falcon fans should lament, although I’ve seen quite a few that are not. Are the Falcons defense doomed without Grimes? No. But they will miss him. How much remains to be seen. It seems very likely that cornerback will be one of the team’s top two picks in this year’s draft.

Will that mean that the Falcons won’t sign another player between now and then to help them at cornerback? No. I think it is possible, although I’m not sure I’d say it’s a likelihood. What is a likelihood is that the Falcons will let the market come to them. We haven’t received the details of Osi Umenyiora’s contract yet. But it was reported that $5 million of his deal was guaranteed, and according to other reports that encompassed his first-year salary. Given the way that the Falcons usually negotiate their contracts, it’s likely that guaranteed money includes his first-year base salary as well as an initial signing bonus. How that breaks up is unknown, but more than likely it will result in a cap hit in 2013 that is between $3 and $4 million. Regardless of where it falls on that spectrum, it means that the Falcons cap situation is relatively tight. I’ve calculated that if the Falcons don’t trade any of their picks, they will need roughly $5.65 million to sign all of them. From the cap numbers I have, if Umenyiora’s 2013 cap hit is $3.5 million, that gives the Falcons roughly $3.5 million in cap space for the season. Not enough to sign the rookies.

Now after the draft the Falcons will almost certainly get to work on extending Matt Ryan’s contract. When that deal is done, that should give the team at least $5-6 million in cap space, giving them them enough to sign their rookies and also have some room left over as insurance in the event of injuries. But in the mean time, the Falcons will likely be frugal with their spending. And that will likely result in the Falcons letting the cornerback market come to them. They probably won’t make huge efforts to pursue any free agent corners between now and the draft. But if some come to them at the right terms, then I believe we should see the Falcons add a veteran stopgap at cornerback before the draft. The right terms likely will be a one-year, veteran minimum deal that will include a very modest signing bonus (less than $100,000). If a veteran corner is willing to accept such terms, then he may be a Falcon. If not, then the Falcons will be content to try and answer their problems at the position solely via the draft.

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On this week’s episode, I am joined by Allen Strk and Tom Melton to recap the Falcons free agent moves as well as look forward to what the team could do in April’s draft. You’ll hear our thoughts on the acquisitions of Osi Umenyiora and Steven Jackson, as well as the team re-signing players like Sam Baker and William Moore. You’ll also hear our opinions on what are the chances that Brent Grimes and John Abraham suit up for the team in 2013. As we venture into the draft, you’ll hear opinions on whether the Falcons should prioritize improving the pass rush or their coverage on the back-end. You’re hear opinions on a couple of first round targets such as Datone Jones, Desmond Trufant, and Johnthan Banks. The conversation then returns back to the Falcons, and whether players like Tyson Clabo, Jonathan Babineaux, and Stephen Nicholas’s days as Falcons might be numbered. We debate whether Peria Jerry or Jamaal Anderson proved to be a better pick. Thoughts about what options the Falcons may have at improving their linebacker and wide receiver play will also be discussed. We pine over the memories of Eric Weems, and shed no tears for the departed Dunta Robinson.

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Duration: 1 hour, 14 minutes

Allen writes for TJRSports.com as well as the Bleacher Report. His twitter handle is: @Allen_Strk.

Tom Melton writes for his own blog at Tom Melton Scouting, as well as NFL Draft Monsters and the newly formed DraftFalcons.com. You can find him on twitter: @TMeltonScouting

 

If you have any questions and comments, you can hit us up on Twitter, post in the forums in the podcast thread, or drop an e-mail at: pudge@falcfans.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can also subscribe directly to our feed at the following URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/falcfans/LXSt

As first reported by FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer, and later confirmed by the team, the Falcons agreed to a two-year deal with defensive end Osi Umenyiora late Wednesday evening. It was a move that was believed to be in the pipeline since last week and was initially expected to be done over the weekend. But it took a few extra days to finalize the deal. Various outlets report that the deal is worth a base value of $8.5 million with $5 million in guarantees that are due in the first year. The max value of the contract has been reported to be between $12 million and $12.5 million.

Umenyiora joins the Falcons after spending the past decade with the New York Giants. Originally drafted as a second round pick in 2003, Umenyiora played nine seasons with the Giants and collected 75 sacks in that span. He was a bookend opposite potential Hall of Famer Michael Strahan in New York (2005-07) before Strahan’s retirement ceded the job to Justin Tuck (2008-11). This past year, Umenyiora was relegated primarily to a situational rusher, splitting reps with Jason Pierre-Paul opposite Tuck. He is coming off a 6-sack eason in 2012, and has seen his production decline steadily since 2010 when he had 11.5 sacks. The two-time Pro Bowler is expected to replace veteran John Abraham in the Falcons lineup opposite Kroy Biermann. Umenyiora was born in London of Nigerian descent and resides in the Atlanta area during the off-season.

Reports on Saturday indicated that the Falcons signing Osi Umenyiora was very imminent. Not sure if by the time this posts Monday morning if that deal will be official, but given the sources (Pro Football Talk and Adam Schefter), I trust them.

I don’t have a problem with that move. The problem with the move is that it is at best a lateral move for a team that struggled with their pass rush throughout 2012. It’s a toss-up between the lack of pass rush and the run defense as to what was the Achilles heel of the Falcons defense last year. At least for the run defense, there were some strong performances down the stretch. Not sure, if I can say the same for the pass rush.

I don’t think Osi is better than John Abraham, but the dropoff is not huge. If you asked me who I would rather have for one season, my answer is definitely Abraham. If you’re asking me who I would rather have for three seasons, then I’d probably choose Osi just because he is a few years younger. But I definitely don’t think Osi is going to be as good or better than Abraham is at age 34.

This is why I think adding pass rush help will remain a priority for the Falcons going into the draft. I think there is a strong possibility that the Falcons will use their top pick to help there.

Once Osi signs, the focus will shift firmly to cornerback as the Falcons top need. While I won’t say that the team won’t draft a corner with their top pick, there is still a lot of time left before the draft (31 days to be exact). There are just too many good veteran corners available, that I’d be surprised if the Falcons didn’t try and pursue one in that time span. It seems inevitable that Brent Grimes won’t be returning to the Falcons at this point, despite my overwhelming desires. So if not Grimes, then the Falcons still have options. Antoine Winfield is probably the best, but he’s 36 and at that age is really only a one-year stopgap. But Winfield would be a good player to pair with Asante Samuel for a season. Winfield still played at a high level last year, and is one of the league’s most consistent run-defending corners in the league. You could possibly make the argument that Winfield is one of the best run-support corners in the last twenty years. Terence Newman brings many of the physical traits to the table that Robinson did that had Falcons officials gushing over him three years ago. He was decent last year in Cincinnati, but it’s hard not to forget his struggles in Dallas the previous two years. Quentin Jammer is another corner with a reputation for physicality, but I’m not sure he can really run anymore, which is the same complaint about Nnamdi Asomugha. Rashean Mathis is a guy that Mike Smith is very familiar with, but he’s struggled with injuries the past two years, so may not be a reliable starter. There are other players such as DeAngelo Hall, Mike Jenkins, Kelvin Hayden, Marcus Trufant, Stanford Routt, Cedric Griffin, and Tracy Porter that will also potentially be in the mix. And I can’t forget about Charles Woodson either.

That’s just too many serviceable to good starters out there for the Falcons to stand pat at cornerback. Right now, there cornerback position consists of Samuel and Robert McClain, and that’s about it. Dominique Franks is on the roster bubble. He didn’t contribute anything as a returner last year, and has not contributed anything on special teams coverage, making his hold on a reserve spot tenuous at best. Backup defensive backs have to contribute on special teams, and Franks does not. So unless the Falcons really like Terrence Johnson and/or Peyton Thompson, you can be fairly confident that at least two significant additions will be made at the position. Probably one on the first two days of the draft, and likely one in free agency.

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Adam Schefter of ESPN tweets that the Falcons are expected to try and wrap up a contract with free agent defensive end Osi Umenyiora, formerly of the New York Giants, this weekend. Umenyiora visited with the team this past Wednesday. The free agent market for pass rushers has heated up this week, with several of the remaining top veterans such as Elvis Dumervil, John Abraham, and Dwight Freeney making a number of visits.

Umenyiora, 31, first joined the Giants as a second round pick out of Troy State in 2003. In nine seasons (he missed the 2008 season with a knee injury), Umenyiora tallied a total of 75 sacks for the Giants and earned Pro Bowl bids twice in 2005 and 2007. In 2005, his 14.5 sacks were a career high as well as the leader among NFC pass rushers. His production has slipped somewhat in recent years, with his last double-digit sack season coming in 2010 where he totaled 11.5 sacks. In 2011, his production fell to 9 sacks and to 6 this past season. Part of that has been due to less reps from the improvement shown from Jason Pierre-Paul. Umenyiora has largely been relegated to situational pass rusher playing predominantly right defensive end in the Giants nickel subpackage.

He is of Nigerian descent and was born in London, England. Umenyiora owns an off-season home in Atlanta.

The Cleveland Browns announced the signing of cornerback Chris Owens today. Owens, a former Falcon, was an unrestricted free agent. Fellow free agent Brent Grimes visited the Browns this past weekend. Owens signed a one-year deal with the Browns, with undisclosed terms.

Owens was drafted by the Falcons in the third round of the 2009 draft out of San Jose State. He played late in his rookie season as a replacement for an injured Chris Houston, and performed well in six starts with 26 tackles and 2 interceptions. The following season, he lost a camp competition to Grimes for the starting position and was moved into the slot as the nickel back. He struggled that year and was eventually benched in favor of Brian Williams. He then replaced an injured Williams in the Falcons playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, and struggled in the loss. In 2011, he showed up late in the season as an injury fill-in for Grimes on the outside, where he was more respectable. This past year, he once again got reps as an injury fill-in with starters Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel nursing some injuries. Owens also proved to be a valuable special teams player over his time in Atlanta, tallying 26 stops on special teams.