After discussing where the Falcons can improve at the quarterback position, it’s now time to look at some potential options the Falcons may have this off-season to do so.

The free agent class of 2013 will be highlighted by Baltimore’s Joe Flacco, who will likely receive a long-term extension from the Ravens that will vie with the Falcons own Matt Ryan for the biggest contract of the off-season. After Flacco, the crop of free agents that will receive interest grows invariably thin. Matt Moore (Dolphins) and Jason Campbell (Bears) are the next best starting candidates. But both are in the same realm as players such as Chad Henne and Matt Flynn a year ago, where they are good enough to compete for a starting job, but not quite good enough to hand over the reins of a team to.

That could mean the Falcons pickings at the position could be slim if they wish to bolster competition this summer for the top reserve behind Matt Ryan. The Falcons might decide to re-sign Luke McCown and add another veteran to the mix to compete with him and Dominique Davis for the position.

Probably the player that makes the most sense is David Garrard. Like McCown, Garrard has experience in Dirk Koetter’s offense. And unlike McCown, Garrard possesses enough skill that he can potentially win a game for the Falcons if Ryan was to be out of the lineup. Garrard is a good vertical passer, something that McCown struggles to do. That means if/when Ryan is out of the game, the Falcons can still attack defenses vertically with wideouts Julio Jones and Roddy White, rather than being forced to rely on a steady running game (which they currently lack) and a dink and dunk attack to score points. But the main question with Garrard is going to be price tag. Garrard hasn’t played a meaningful snap since the 2010 season, but may feel that he’s still worth a starting position. He’s not likely to settle for a lower-level backup contract. Players like Henne, Campbell, and Kyle Orton signed deals that averaged between $3.5 and $4 million last year. That is the going rate for a quality backup with extensive starting experience. It would be likely that Garrard’s rate will approach or begin there. He signed a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Dolphins last year. If the Falcons could get him for a similar price tag, it would be a relative bargain. But that may ultimately be more than the Falcons are willing to spend on the position.

Another option on the open market could be Rex Grossman (Redskins). Like Garrard, Grossman is also comfortable throwing the football downfield and with the emergence of Kirk Cousins in Washington, likely won’t be in their future plans. Grossman isn’t likely to draw as much money as a player like Garrard could since it’s doubtful any teams will look for him as anything more than a backup. But again, that doesn’t mean he’ll be cheap. McCown could likely be re-signed by the Falcons for a one-year deal worth less than $1 million. Could Grossman be had at that price? Possibly, but it’s by no means a slam dunk.

There may also be a number of veteran players released this upcoming off-season. Notable names include Alex Smith (49ers), Mark Sanchez (Jets), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills). Smith and Flynn are likely to get dealt to a team looking for a starter (New York Jets?). Sanchez’s contract is such that he’ll be hard to dump this off-season, but it’s possible that the Jets opt to cut their losses and start fresh with another player. Fitzpatrick is due a significant bonus in March, and if Doug Marrone & Co. feel that he is not the future starter of the team he could be cut. Fitzpatrick has had his moments over the years in Buffalo, but is an erratic passer with questionable decision making, accuracy, and sloppy mechanics. Due to his experience, he also will likely command the higher dollars available to backup quarterbacks if signed by another team. Other players that could find themselves cut or traded this off-season include Colt McCoy (Browns), Matt Hasselbeck (Titans), Matt Cassel (Chiefs), and John Skelton (Cardinals).

Of those players, Skelton is the only one that has potential as a vertical passer. Skelton has a strong arm, but his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired which is why he has not been particularly effective when throwing downfield over the years. He’s also a virtual statue in the pocket, which is not a great fit behind a mediocre Falcons offensive line. Hasselbeck could be a good fit, as he shares a wealth of similarities with Matt Ryan starting with his hailing from the same college (Boston College). Both are more precise pocket passers that win pre-snap as opposed to being blessed with great physical tools. But he, like Cassel and McCoy struggle to throw the ball downfield. Cassel is an effective game manager when he has a steady ground attack, but in a strict, dropback offense he tends to struggle with his decision making. McCoy is comfortable working a wide-open spread system, but struggles to read defenses due to his short stature. Interior pressure really gives him fits and he doesn’t have the arm strength to drive the ball downfield.

Overall, the best fit/candidate if the Falcons want to significantly upgrade the competition in camp remains Garrard. He’s by no means a perfect quarterback. He’s a gunslinger that will force some throws downfield, which can lead to turnovers. But unlike McCown or Chris Redman before him, Garrard can win games with his arm because he’s not going to be afraid to challenge defenses downfield. And given his starting experience (76 starts), he’s not going to be gunshy if/when the pressure is on. The same cannot be said for McCown.

If the Falcons simply want a backup quarterback that will manage the game and minimize mistakes, they will have plenty of options to choose from. If the Falcons are looking to save money, then they can simply settle for what they usually do and pick up a fourth arm via an undrafted guy after the draft. But if the Falcons want to get the most out of the backup quarterback position in 2013, then Garrard probably is the best option available.

The Falcons have needs at every position, or at least they have room to improve their roster across the board. I want to look at every position group to see what areas where the Falcons can improve. Let’s start first with quarterback.

It is expected that the Falcons will begin contract extension talks with Matt Ryan at some point this off-season. Ryan is signed through the 2013 season, and thus the Falcons don’t want to get into a situation next off-season where they are in a protracted contract stalemate with Ryan. If the Falcons can get Ryan locked up to a long-term deal, then it will alleviate many of the issues they have at this position.

Next on the Falcons to-do list is going to be addressing the No. 2 spot on the roster. Luke McCown was signed just before the start of the regular season to replace Chris Redman and John Parker Wilson, both of whom struggled in the preseason. McCown can be a competent reserve when the conditions around him are ideal, namely when he has a ground game, playmakers at wide receiver, and doesn’t have to play from behind. Those conditions could be met in Atlanta if the Falcons can get their ground game back on track but they don’t want to be in a situation where McCown will be asked to start multiple games in the event of a Ryan injury.

McCown is a free agent, and he could be retained fairly easily. It’s unlikely he’ll get anything more than a one-year, near-minimum deal on the open market, so if the Falcons offer the same it’s likely he’ll remain in Atlanta. But the Falcons need at quarterback will be bringing in more competition. Dominique Davis will represent the third quarterback on the roster and will be in the competition, but the team needs a fourth arm. Traditionally the Falcons have relied on undrafted talent to fill this part of the depth chart, but it might be time that the team delves into free agency or the draft to try and find more than your run of the mill undrafted prospect.

The ideal fit for the Falcons will be someone that is somewhat familiar with Dirk Koetter’s scheme. But also from a skill standpoint, they probably want to look for someone that is comfortable with a vertical passing game. It remains to be seen whether or not the Falcons running game makes significant strides next year, and thus the team may still be reliant on the explosiveness of their passing game to potentially win games if Ryan were to go down. There’s an obvious candidate that fits both requirements: David Garrard.

While the Falcons could look for talent in the middle to late portion of the draft, the presence of Davis on the roster probably mitigates their desire for another young, developing quarterback. Davis possesses a big arm and mobility, which if he can polish up his mechanics and become more comfortable making his progressions could develop into a capable No. 2.

Whether the Falcons choose to retain McCown or move in another direction, the key is that they bring in some arms that can bolster competition in camp. Whoever fills the backup spot in 2013 should be in for an open, intense competition, and settling for retaining an average McCown and green Davis won’t be enough to provide that.

The Falcons are a needs-based drafting team. They tend to focus their draft on adding guys that can immediately make the roster. After all, if a player cannot make the roster then he isn’t going to add very much value to your roster.

That’s why in re-examining the team needs from previously, I have paid more attention to the Falcons current depth chart to see what holes/weaknesses remain on the roster. I believe for the most part, the Falcons have the vast majority of the 53 prospective players that will be on this year’s team currently on the roster. But a few holes remain…

Free Agency Needs

These are needs that likely will have the team opting for veterans to fill.

Left Tackle: It seems very likely that at the least the Falcons want to bring in some competition at this position. While the team could probably live with Will Svitek and Sam Baker competing for this spot, it does not seem likely they want to. This was a position that was a weakness all year last year, and to expect that not to change in 2012 is foolhardy without any changes to the roster.

Center: Right now besides Joe Hawley there is no other center on the roster. The team could tinker with the idea of moving Andrew Jackson to that position. New position coach Pat Hill’s praise of Jackson’s leadership and intelligence was one of the reasons which drew the Falcons brass to him as a seventh round draft pick a year ago. But the team might also look to add a veteran later in the off-season to provide depth. A player like Brett Romberg is likely to remain available, but he’s always been a Paul Boudreau guy, and it’s possible Hill will prefer another option.

Draft Needs

These are needs which the team will focus on adding young talent to fill via the draft. The Falcons are slated to only have five draft picks this April, which gives them more limited options of players they could target.

Tight End: Last year’s third tight end Reggie Kelly is a free agent, that almost no one has talked about re-signing. The Falcons extended Tony Gonzalez’s deal by one year, but he has made no secret that 2012 will be his last. Michael Palmer is a capable reserve, but has done little to nothing to show he has a future as a starter in this league. Expect this position to one of the team’s higher priorities come draft day. They will look for a guy that can add some immediate value as depth, but also offer starting potential in 2013 and beyond.

Quarterback: The Falcons re-signed Chris Redman for one more year, and John Parker Wilson is expected back. But the Falcons might be looking at more than just adding a fourth arm in camp, they might be looking for a guy that can immediately push/replace Wilson for the No. 3 spot, and have the upside to replace Redman as the No. 2 guy in 2013 and beyond. If the Falcons do eyeball a passer in the draft, they’ll likely take a flyer on someone in the late rounds.

Defensive Tackle: Peria Jerry has given this team little and Vance Walker is entering the final year of his deal. Coupled with the fact that Jonathan Babineaux is no spring chicken, an infusion of youth and depth at this position definitely will not hurt the Falcons. Someone that can bolster the rotation could be a mid or late-round target.

Outside Linebacker: The Falcons have never been married to Robert James, who currently is their top reserve on the strongside. While it’s likely that if Stephen Nicholas went down with injury, Spencer Adkins would be tapped to play the role, the team is probably looking for another reserve linebacker that can add some depth, be developed for the future, and contribute on special teams.

Draft/Free Agency Needs

These are needs that could be filled via the draft or free agency.

Return Specialist/Wide Receiver: While the team could probably get by with some combination of DOminique Franks and Harry Douglas manning this position as replacements for Eric Weems, it seems unlikely that the Falcons won’t look to bolster competition in camp. It’s likely that the team will look to add another wide receiver to compete with Kerry Meier for the No. 4 position that can offer some value in the return game, ostensibly replacing Weems niche/role on the roster.

Strong Safety: The Falcons need to add a backup safety behind William Moore. Having reliable depth at safety is often critical for success because safeties are generally the least durable position on the defense across the league. Moore missed some time last year, and has been injured in 2 of the last 3 seasons. The team could always settle on re-signing James Sanders later this off-season or a comparable veteran player as well. But they also probably would not shy away from adding a young backup in the draft that can also play on special teams.

 

As everyone knows, the Falcons have fallen short of expectations the past two season and all indications from the postseason press conference are that there will be significant changes to not only the coaching staff but also some tweaking of the roster.  With that in mind, here are some things to think about when next Tuesday arrives:

QUARTERBACK:  The big question here is what direction will the team go for a backup quarterback.  While Chris Redman has been serviceable, he’s also carried a rather large cap number ($2.55 million and previously $3.05 million).  The problem lies with how few snaps he actually takes.  Last season saw him take only 11 snaps due to injury (and they were brief injuries where Ryan returned in both the Detroit and New Orleans games) and 2010 saw him no meaningful snaps (other than mop up duty in blow outs).  Perhaps the team will want to use those millions to pursue other needs and instead turn the backup job over to John Parker Wilson.  While highly unproven, he carries a significantly cheaper cap charge and would do more than well enough in the situations described above.  The other options are to sign one or draft one but again, I think the Falcons will try to go the cheaper route.

RUNNING BACK/FULLBACK:  I was very surprised to see the team bring back Snelling.  It’s definitely not a negative that he’s back but with Coach Smith indicating a larger role for Jacquizz Rodgers, I was unsure of where the carries would come from to support the move.  The playing time may not come all at half back but he may see an increased role at fullback.  It’s hard for me to envision Ovie Mughelli returning at a cap number approaching $4 million and also difficult to imagine any kind of extension considering he’s coming off a major knee injury and turning 32 in a few months.  When looking at run blocking, Mike Cox proved to be equal to or maybe even better than Mughelli in the same amount of snaps.  Further compounding the problem is that the Falcons used a fullback in only 25% of the plays last season.  I’m leaning towards the idea that Cox will be in the backfield for the tough yards and true run blocking situations while Snelling will not only get some carries at running back but also be featured in two back sets with both Turner and Rodgers at times to give defenses multiple looks and also involve more screen options which is something that Coach Smith has foreshadowed.  Not to mention that freeing up $3 million of cap space would do wonders for the Falcons free agency needs.

TIGHT ENDS:  With Gonzalez and Palmer back, that only leaves the #3 spot open to compete with Palmer at #2.  If you had asked me prior to the combine, I’d have really believed that there would be a 50% chance that the Falcons would be drafting Coby Fleener or Orson Charles with the second round pick.  Fleener is still a possibility but Charles obviously shot himself in the foot with his DUI.  I do expect the team to do something at tight end but it may be nothing more than signing one in hopes of striking gold and waiting for next year to find Gonzalez’s replacement.

WIDE RECEIVERS:  The Falcons are set with White and Jones as the main starters for the foreseeable future.  The question to ask is what happens with the slot receiver.  Harry Douglas and Eric Weems are both free agents and Douglas understandably wants a chance to start.  With the wide receiver pool deep in free agency, he may not get that shot and find himself back with the team.  Meanwhile, Weems offers a diverse set of skills from not only as a returner but also as a tackler (second on the team to Akeem Dent) and is a capable receiver (targeted 12 times and catching 11 passes last season, the lone incompletion was not a drop).  Kerry Meier returns along with Kevin Cone who was added to the team late last year.  If both Douglas and Weems return then I would only expect a late round draft pick at most to be added.  If only Douglas returns then you’ll see us draft one earlier that would most likely have return ability.  A Travis Benjamin type receiver who could develop into the slot position while serving as a dangerous return man comes to mind.  If Weems returns then he would man the slot and you might would see Dominique Franks take over return duties.

TACKLES:  I do not believe that the starting left tackle is currently on the team.  While Will Svitek is a valuable player to have, he’s not the bookend left tackle that the team will want to hitch their wagon to.  With the struggles of Sam Baker and a cap number of $4.1 million, there’s an opportunity to shave $2.5 million off the cap and use that along with other moves mentioned to sign someone like a Marcus McNeil or Demetrius Bell.  Tyson Clabo has the right side locked down. I would not rule out a draft pick, be it early or late, being used at tackle and almost expect it.

GUARDS:  Likewise, I also don’t think the Falcons are done at guard.  While Blalock is solid at left guard, right guard is wide open.  Garrett Reynolds just isn’t a guard in my opinion and tends to play too high (and that’s largely due to his height).  He’s much better suited to be a tackle but with Clabo on the right side, I don’t see that happening.  Mike Johnson missed last season with an injury and will get a chance to compete for the position again this season.  Last year’s draft choice of Andrew Jackson will be added to the mix again as will newly signed Vince Manuwai.  Manuwai missed last season after being cut in camp due to conditioning and an ankle injury.  If he returns to form of 2009/2010 then the Falcons problems at guard may very well be solved–at least short term.  Manuwai will be 32 when season starts so a longer term solution will probably be sought.  One player I would really love for the Falcons to snag is Geoff Schwartz.  According to reports, he is not likely to be tendered by Carolina.  Although he did miss last season with a hip injury he proclaims to be 100% healthy and ready to go.  At 25 years old, he’s young and has a huge upside.  Starting for Carolina in 2010, he graded out by Pro Football Focus to be the #7 right guard in the league and also started 5 games at right tackle and graded out well there too.  That kind of versatility is very valuable and would come at a very reasonable price.  The reward easily outweighs the risk.  The draft is also very deep at guard this year and provides even more options.

CENTER:  I don’t get the impression that the team will be re-signing Todd McClure.  While thankful for all of his years of service, all signs and comments point towards taking a step towards the future with this position.  I believe that Joe Hawley (drafted in 2010 for this very purpose) will be given the shot to man the position.  I do expect the team to possibly re-sign Brett Romberg to backup or possibly draft a center to compete with Hawley.  A great draft year for interior linemen, I find myself intrigued by David Mock who will most likely be around in the mid to late rounds.

While adding a player like Carl Nicks, Evan Mathis or other big name free agent offensive linemen are definitely appealing, I don’t get the impression that is the direction the team is going to go but I do think they will and have addressed needs as far as offensive line goes.  With a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive line coach, it will be interesting to see what direction the team goes in but signing Manuwai paired with Blalock shows that they may want to go a lot bigger than they have in the past.

Tomorrow, I’ll break down the defense and special teams as we continue to take a look at what the future might hold.

Yesterday, I posted this in the forums, where I have been periodically going through the needs of all 32 teams. But I had gotten to the point where the Falcons were the next team on the slate, and given that we are approaching free agency, it was a good time to post them for the world to see.

The ratings for the team needs is a system that I developed many moons ago when I was writing for The Huddle Report, and have developed over several years. The level of need is not necessarily based off my own opinions, but my attempt to get inside the heads of the powers that be with each respective team, and in this case the Falcons and Thomas Dimitroff. They mostly apply towards but also factor in free agency as well. After the jump you can find the ratings key as well as a position-by-position breakdown.

TOP 10 NEEDS

1. OT – 4.0
2. DE – 3.5
3. TE – 3.0
4. OG – 3.0
5. RB – 2.5
6. CB – 2.0
7. WR – 2.0
8. DT – 2.0
9. QB – 1.5
10. LB – 1.5

Read more…

Many mock drafts project the Falcons to target Troy wideout Jerrel Jernigan in the second round of the draft. And admittedly, I have pegged him as a potential Falcon pick in my recent 7-round mock.

But in truth, Jernigan is not a great fit in Atlanta. At least not with the way the team currently runs their offense.

The last thing the Falcons need to be looking for is another pure slot receiver. This is essentially the problem that the team has run into with Harry Douglas. Douglas has yet to emerge as a strong option on the outside. And that’s the area of most glaring need at wide receiver. The Falcons need a player on the outside that can make teams pay for paying too much attention to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.

Michael Jenkins has failed to be that option. And while Jenkins had a decent season after a dismal 2009 campaign, he’s not a guy that is going to make plays if the spotlight is put upon him.

Jernigan is an explosive receiver, but it remains to be seen if he can be an explosive receiver on the outside. Primarily what he did at Troy was run a lot of shorter routes and use his speed and burst after the catch to make plays. This is the same type of receiver that Douglas is.

Now, Douglas struggled throughout 2010. But he did his best work when he was running shorter routes. On passes that went 10 or less yards, Douglas caught 15 out of 28 attempts (53.6% catch rate) and totaled 97 yards after the catch for a total of 138 yards. On passes where the ball went beyond 10 yards, Douglas had just 7 catches on 25 attempts (28% catch rate) with 31 yards after the catch for 156 total yards. Getting Douglas more work on the short passing game will make him a more effective receiver, and to a level where he’ll be at the very least acceptable if not very good in that realm.

Instead, the prototype for what the Falcons should be looking for on the outside is a big, tall, physical receiver that has speed and burst to get downfield and stretch the defense. Current and recent NFL receivers that fit this bill are Marques Colston and Plaxico Burress. Jenkins is tall with decent speed to challenge downfield, but he doesn’t separate well from corners and doesn’t have the ball skills and body control to go and get the ball. That is why Matt Ryan needs more than anything out of a big, vertical option.

Jernigan is not this type of player. Players like Miami’s Leonard Hankerson, PItt’s Jonathan Baldwin, Indiana’s Tandon Doss, UNC’s Greg Little, and Tennessee’s Denarius Moore are much more this type of receiver than Jernigan. Now each one has their own faults and weaknesses. Baldwin is similar to Jenkins in that he has the high-cut build that will make it hard for him to separate from corners under 15 yards. Doss and Little too are more used to running shorter routes despite their size, but they have very good ability after the catch. Little is fairly raw as a receiver and may take extra time to develop. Hankerson and Moore probably don’t have as much upside as the other guys do as playmakers, but are good complementary options that have very little risk involved with them.

Read more…

Previously, I discussed some players that I thought the Falcons should target in the first round in order to maximize their value. Now, it’s time to look at some potential second round options.

The second round is typically the last round in which impact playmakers are usually drafted most years. The other thing that makes second round picks very beneficial is that you can often get first round talent (particularly in the first half of the round) for a fraction of the price.

Maximizing how many picks you have in the Top 50 is usually a very good strategy for most teams. Here is a look at some of the offensive players that the Falcons can target late in the round and find premium value:

RB Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech

Williams is not going to be a lead back in the Mularkey offense, but he’s about as good a No. 2 option as you’re going to find in this draft. The main drawback with Williams is his durability. It remains to be seen if his slighter frame can hold up to NFL punishment. A positive is that he’s bulked up some this off-season, but it may not be enough. He’s not a guy that is going to reliably carry the ball 15-20 times per game. But what he can do is spell Turner for 5-10 snaps per game and be an explosive outside runner. Williams offers excellent burst and speed with the ability to bounce plays outside, which makes him an ideal complement to the more physical, methodical nature of Turner.

WR Jerrel Jernigan, Troy / Randall Cobb, Kentucky

The Falcons want to upgrade their slot receiver position. Jernigan and Cobb potentially do that. The only problem here is to maximize Jernigan and Cobb’s impact in the offense, there are going to have to be significant changes to the play-calling. The Falcons did not use a ton of three-wide receiver sets last year, relying fairly heavily on the double tight end set, at least relative to most NFL offenses. That would have to change if the team were to add Jernigan or Cobb on the roster. The Falcons would also have to try and maximize their abilities by having them run a lot of shorter routes in the Welker-mold rather than the vertical routes down the seam that the team struggled to complete to Harry Douglas last year.

The added value of both Jernigan and Cobb is their abilities to contribute in the return game. Jernigan is probably the more natural receiver of the two, but both would add versatile weapons to the Falcons offense. But whether they are great value here will depend heavily on whether Mike Mularkey will significantly adjust the offense to suit their strengths.
Read more…

Previously, I discussed potential offensive targets the Falcons should look at in the first round if they are in the business of maximizing their value. And now I’ll turn my attention to defense.

The Falcons defense was exposed by the mighty Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, unable to force a single punt during that entire game. Mike Smith is a coach that wants to be physical on both sides of the ball, and the Falcons defense was embarrassed in that game, indicating they have a long way to go. That means that the Falcons probably could use the most help on defense, but does that mean that they will get the most value by using their top pick on that side of the ball?

This isn’t about projecting who is going to be there, just discussing which players give the Falcons the most value if they were.

DE Justin Houston, Georgia / DE Aldon Smith, MIssouri

Houston and Smith are similar prospects that fit in a similar fashion in Atlanta. Both guys are considered tweeners as far as playing defensive end in a 4-3 vs. outside linebacker in a 3-4. Both played mainly with their hand on the ground in college. Both possess very quick first steps, the caliber of quickness that makes them good heirs apparent to John Abraham as the right end with the edge speed to beat NFL left tackles. The issue for both is that their technique isn’t that great. They both are still fairly raw as far as that goes and will need a number of years (probably two or three) before they are ready to be impact pass rushers and starters. But they both can immediately come in and help the rotation on passing downs, and have the potential that if the Falcons choose not to re-sign John Abraham after this season, then the team can be content with plugging them into the starting lineup. Will they be as good as Abraham? No, probably not. But it would be a very similar situation to what was the case back in 2000, when the Falcons let Chuck Smith go, started Patrick Kerney in his second NFL season, he underwent some growing pains, and then broke out in 2001 with a 12-sack season.

DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue

I separate Kerrigan from the other two pass rushers because I feel his best NFL potential may be playing on the left side. Kerrigan is more polished in terms of his technique, having an array of moves and not just relying on his speed to beat tackles. He has good quickness, but not quite the kind where you think he’ll be able to match up with left tackle and beat them consistently around the corner. Playing on the left side against right tackles, he should fare a lot better. Kerrigan is a high motor player that is probably the safest of the prospective defensive ends the Falcons can draft, but may not have the elite upside due to him being a step or so slower. But he has the versatility that the Falcons like because he can play on either side of the line, helping out the rotation as a rookie, and then be plugged into the starting lineup in Year Two on either side. Like Smith and Houston, he’d likely be viewed as the heir apparent to Abraham, but also gives the team a potential replacement for Kroy Biermann on the left side because of his ability to develop the run.

Read more…

One of the biggest keys to drafting well is finding value. There are a lot of factors that go into determining how value a potential player has. Often times, it is based on how other teams feel about a player. If most other teams view a player as a third round pick, even if you think he has first round potential, you’re better off waiting until the second round to try and snag him and using your first round pick on another player.

At other times, it is based on how well that player fits in your scheme. For example, Ovie Mughelli might be the best lead blocker in the league, but since the Indianapolis Colts almost never use a fullback in their offense, a player of his skillset and caliber has almost no value to them. However on a team like Atlanta that makes extensive use of the fullback, he has a high degree of value.

And coupled with that, based on your scheme, the player’s skill and those of players currently on your roster, can also determine value. Nobody is going to put Thomas DeCoud in the same breath as Ed Reed, but there are a dozen teams that would happily take him over what they currently have at the position. So for some safety need teams (e.g. Jacksonville), a DeCoud-level safety is going to have more value. For the Falcons or another team with a comparable or better free safety, only a Reed-level safety that offers a significant upgrade over DeCoud is going to have value.

With all that said, I want to discuss some offensive players that the Falcons should be looking at in the first round that I personally think offer good to great value for the Falcons. I will continue this with each round. Not only am I going to consider the Falcons needs, but I’m going to base a lot of this on whether these players offer significant upgrades over what the Falcons already have at the position. I’ll go position by position.

RB Mark Ingram, Alabama

You  might be surprised to see Ingram’s name up here, but there is no doubt that Ingram is the premier running back in this class. He’s been compared to Emmitt Smith, and I personally think the comparisons are very apt. While the Falcons don’t have an immediately huge need at running back, they do need to improve their depth in order to keep Michael Turner fresh. Jason Snelling took a step back last year, and Ingram is a significant immediate upgrade over him. Ingram is a skilled runner, pass catcher, and also is a solid pass protector for a college runner. His power and vision makes him one of the best runners after contact, that would potentially rival someone like Turner. In the Mularkey-style offense, he gives the Falcons a solid young workhorse to groom to succeed Turner in the near future. Frankly, I believe if Ingram were able to stay healthy, he would be a better running back than Turner has been over the past three seasons.

Read more…

It’s time for the moment you’ve been waiting for, one that has been three weeks in the making. It’s now time that I break down what prospects the Falcons will be looking at in the first round of this year’s draft with their twenty-seventh overall selection.

I won’t pretend this will be a brief read, but I’ll try to keep this as brief as I can possibly make it without leaving you dissatisfied. I’ll try not to spend too much time re-hashing concepts that have already been discussed before. So if you haven’t already then you should go ahead and read my thoughts on why the Falcons taking an offensive linemen with their first pick is a long shot, as well as Stacking the Draft Board series at running back, wide receiver, and defensive end.

And don’t worry, this will not be the last time I discuss the Falcons thought process. I’ll definitely be getting into the nitty gritty of the Falcons options next week once I’ve completed this exercise and discussed all thirty teams approach to the draft.

But without further ado, I think the Falcons will use their top pick on Georgia defensive end Justin Houston. Please keep reading for an explanation why and who else the Falcons will be looking at.

As previously discussed, the Falcons top need this off-season is their defensive end position. John Abraham, Kroy Biermann, and Jamaal Anderson are all free agents after this season. Chauncey Davis is a one-dimensional role player, and Lawrence Sidbury is an unproven youngster. When you project that unit into 2012, the only player that is a strong bet to still be a Falcon is Biermann. And while I’m personally hopeful that Biermann will ascend to the level in 2011 that many expected him to be in 2010, it’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll be capable of anchoring the unit. And the Falcons could be looking at a situation in 2012 where their defensive end position is dire.

Read more…