OT Sam Baker

I keep seeing a bunch of mocks having the Falcons take an offensive linemen in the first round of the draft, and frankly from where I’m sitting, I think the odds are very, very, very low that happens. In fact, I think the odds are fairly low that the Falcons will take an offensive lineman at any point in the draft, let alone the first round. And I’ll explain why, and much of it has to do with the labor strife the league is currently undergoing.

I’m not certain what is going to become of the CBA labor situation the rest of this week or going forward. But let’s look at both scenarios: (1) the pessimistic one where a lockout occurs and there is essentially no player movement between now and the draft and afterwards. And (2) the optimistic one in that a new CBA gets hammered out at some point in the next seven weeks before the draft and that we get some semblance of free agency and a relatively normal off-season. How does either scenario affect the Falcons offensive line situation?

We know that Tyson Clabo, Harvey Dahl, and Justin Blalock all had their contracts expire at the end of the 2010 season. The Falcons quickly were able to re-sign reserve Will Svitek last week, getting him locked up for two more seasons as a Falcon. But those three players that aren’t yet signed represent 60% of the Falcons starting lineup, and arguably the best 60%. Clabo landed a Pro Bowl bid this year, and Harvey Dahl quietly had a second solid year in a Falcon uniform. And even Justin Blalock, the player I thought going into this season was the weakest link of the front five improved his play, and arguably was our most consistent blocker over the second half of the season.

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As previously discussed in the post about what running backs the Falcons could potentially be looking at, the Falcons want to get more explosive on offense. And what’s the best way of diong that by improving your options on the outside at wide receiver.

Roddy White put together a very impressive season, one that simple blew away previous great Falcons receiving seasons. After all, when Andre Rison, Terance Mathis, and Eric Metcalf were putting their names in the Falcons record books, they were doing so in a Run N’ Shoot offense that was designed to put up big passing numbers. Not the case with the Falcons current offense, which is a much more run-oriented attack. So it’s clear that Roddy White is not the problem.

On the opposite side of the field, Michael Jenkins had a relatively good year considering he missed a big chunk of the beginning of the year with a shoulder injury, and was coming off one of his worst seasons as a Falcon. But it is becoming increasingly clear that the Falcons need an explosive option in the passing game that can make teams pay when they double Roddy, something that teams did to a good degree of success in the second half of the season.

Harry Douglas failed to step up when he had the opportunities, but he did flash some explosive potential in the latter half of the season when the Falcons made better use of him on the shorter routes and trying to get him in space to use his ability after the catch. If the Falcons can continue to do that, they should be able to improve their explosive offensive potential somewhat.

But it’s probably not going to be enough. So adding some more explosive options in the draft makes a ton of sense for the Falcons going forward.

They can start with options in the first round. And the player topping the Falcons draft board is likely to be Maryland wideout Torrey Smith. Smith is a fast, explosive playmaker that grades highly as far as character goes, making him a very attractive first round option if available. Smith appears to be everything the Falcons want in a wideout opposite Roddy. He blocks, he plays hard, he’s fast, and has been getting glowing reviews by many in terms of his character and reportedly wowed many at the combine.

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The Falcons offense was one of the least explosive offenses in the league in 2010. And it’s been a major point for the Falcons front office to try and change that headed into 2011.

At the running back position the Falcons currently have Michael Turner. Turner receives the bulk of the Falcons carries on the ground, at about 75% each of the last three seasons when healthy. That probably isn’t going to change in 2011. But since 2008, the Falcons have made a concerted effort to reduce some of Turner’s workload. And what can help that significantly if the Falcons can have reliable options behind him as a change of pace. Jason Snelling had a strong finish in the 2009 campaign, but outside his Week 2 performance as a replacement to an injured Turner, he didn’t contribute a ton in 2010 on the ground. Jerious Norwood missed almost the entire year, and his future in Atlanta is in doubt. If the Falcons can secure a solid No. 3 running back in the draft, it should all but end Norwood’s disappointing tenure in Atlanta due to his inability to stay healthy.

And the most likely target for that No. 3 spot is a quick, explosive back that can be a factor on third downs.

Thankfully for the Falcons, this draft class seems to be loaded with those types of runners, with teh Falcons more than likely targeting one in the middle portion of the draft. At this point, my expectation is that the ideal range where the Falcons will take a back is somewhere between the third and fifth round of the draft, with them trying to address other needs earlier.

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As the Falcons move forward this off-season with their eye towards the draft, they emerge with a pressing need at defensive end.

Although John Abraham had a resurgent season with 13 sacks, he’s not getting any younger and the Falcons need to try and secure their pass rush for the future. That future becomes even more tenuous once you consider that Abraham along with Jamaal Anderson and Kroy Biermann are all entering contract years in 2011. That means with a worse case scenario, the Falcons could be entering the 2012 season with Chauncey Davis and Lawrence Sidbury as their starters.

It all adds up to the Falcons trying their best to solidify this position early in the draft with a strong candidate to upgrade their pass rush immediately, but provide some stability for 2012 and beyond. It is likely that however the Falcons add in the draft will enter 2012 with a tentative hold on a starting job depending on how the Falcons handle the contract situations facing Abraham and Biermann.

The best opportunity the Falcons have to do this is in the first round. This is a relatively strong year for defensive end prospects with many experts projecting as many as eight defensive ends to be drafted in the first round. With the Falcons picking at No. 27 in the first, they will probably be at the tail end of this bonanza, but should still have an opportunity to get one or two of these guys.

Unfortunately, for the Falcons the drop-off in talent after the first round is significant. To the point where I don’t think the Falcons could draft a single player and be convinced that player would be ready to be a starter by his second year. And because this year’s draft class is particularly top-heavy, I suspect that we’ll see guys that would normally be mid-round talent being pushed up in the earlier rounds to fill the void after the “Big Eight.” And I’m not sure any one of these players off a significant upgrade in terms of talent over players like Sidbury and Davis.

It’s why it seems the Falcons will probably have to approach things with the mindset that they must secure their defensive end position on the opening night of the draft on April 28.

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So continuing on from earlier about how the Falcons need to get more explosive on offense, what sort of pieces can the Falcons find out there that can help them.

Well with the uncertainty of the Collective Bargaining Agreement this off-season, we cannot be sure if the Falcons can rely on free agency to help them at the position. It would be a shame really because this is potentially a very strong crop of free agent receivers.

Players like Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Malcom Floyd, Steve Smith (from the Giants), Steve Breaston, Sidney Rice, Lance Moore, and James Jones highlight this class, which doesn’t include Vincent Jackson, who was recently franchised by the Chargers.

So that may mean the Falcons will have to rely on the draft to upgrade their wide receiver corps. Players such as Maryland’s Torrey Smith or Pitt’s Jon Baldwin are expected to be available options in the latter half of the first round. Both provide vertical potential due to either speed or size and would be potentially explosive additions to the Falcons lineup.

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There should be no doubt to anyone that the Falcons have to manage somehow to get more explosive on offense. The team ranked last in the league in terms of how many of their pass attempts resulted in 20+ yard completions, even behind the Carolina Panthers. On the opposite end of the spectrum, teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers were among the league leaders in that area on offense, so one certainly sees how it can be beneficial to an offense.

One of the issues the Falcons face however is the fact that quarterback Matt Ryan isn’t known for his arm strength. Ryan isn’t weak-armed, it’s just that in comparison to passers like Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers, there are just throws that he’s not going to be able to make on a consistent basis. Case in point is the big 58-yard bomb Roethlisberger hit Antonio Brown on in the Steelers-Ravens matchup that set up the Steelers go-ahead touchdown for the Steelers in the final minutes of that game. Not to say that Ryan is completely incapable of making that throw, it’s just unlikely those types of plays are going to be a big part of the Falcons offensive repertoire with Ryan at the helm.

So the Falcons will likely have to find other ways to create “splash” plays in the passing game without relying on the 40 and 50-yard bombs. More likely, the Falcons should probably focus on getting more vertical plays between 20 and 30 yards, which is right up Ryan’s alley as far as arm strength is concerned.

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It seems most everyone can agree that a major area of weakness for the Falcons team and defense is their pass rush. The Falcons inability to provide adequate pressure on Aaron Rodgers was a big reason why the Falcons defense was embarrassed in its poorest showing of the year, giving up 48 points in a postseason loss.

Ray Edwards: The New John Abraham?

John Abraham had a resurgent year, going from 5.5 sacks in 2009 to 13 in 2010. But I would argue that overall, while Abe’s production improved in the sack department, his ability to get to the quarterback wasn’t significantly better. As many may have noticed by looking at the final regular season stats for Moneyball, Abraham was credited with 6.5 quarterback pressures and 5.5 quarterback hits in addition to his 12 sacks (one of his official sacks was credited as a hit under Moneyball rules). A year ago, he had 3.5 Moneyball-credited sacks along with 18 pressures and 3 hits. For those unfamiliar with the Moneyball concept, a QB pressure is considered when a defender’s pressure on a QB results in an incomplete pass. So if one were to add up sacks, pressures, and hits all as positive pass rushes (PPRs), then in 2009, Abe had 24.5 and this past year 24 PPRs.

Now I’m not quite sure how to quantify the net difference between having 7.5 more sacks in one year and 9 less pressures/hits. I’d certainly argue that a sack should count a bit more because it results in a loss of yardage, which is probably better for a defense than an incompletion. But I don’t know quite how much better, and figuring that out might be best left to other experts.

But the bigger story from 2009 to 2010 may not be how much or little Abraham improved, but the significant dropoff from other members of the Falcons front. Most notably Kroy Biermann and Jonathan Babineaux. Biermann went from 27 PPRs in 2009 to 14 this past year. Babineaux dropped from 26 PPRs last year to 15.5. The combination of Thomas Johnson, Peria Jerry, and Vance Walker a year ago combined for 10 PPRs. This year with Jerry, Walker, and Corey Peters running the show that number was roughly the same at 10.5. But Jamaal Anderson, Chauncey Davis, and Lawrence Sidbury combined for 21.5 PPRs in 2009. But this year, the Falcons only got 11 from those same players, including no production from Sidbury.

It’s clear that the Falcons probably need to work on getting more pressure from the outside for next year. Who knows what sort of changes could occur with Abraham being a year older. Will Biermann and Babineaux bounce back to their previous 2009 form? How much improvement can Jerry and Peters show? All questions that won’t be answered until the 2011 season begins. But in the meantime the Falcons would be smart to try and improve the area so that there isn’t even more decline next season.

Now getting to free agency, who knows if there will be free agency this off-season. Most signs seem to point to a protracted lockout this off-season, which will preclude any form of free agency from occurring. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume (although it might be more along the lines of pretending) that free agency does occur this off-season. But we still won’t be even sure what type of free agency occurs. Will it be the free agency of a year ago where only players with six or more years of experience were allowed to test the open market as unrestricted free agents? Or will it feature like it has for most of the past with fourth-year players allowed to hit the market? I don’t know, but I present two possible options in either case.

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Orakpo: The Prototype?

In the article discussing which players could fit at linebacker for this team back in February, I talked about the team looking at SAM linebackers that could be upgrades over Stephen Nicholas in coverage. But since I wrote that article, perhaps it’s not coverage ability that really concerns the Falcons. Perhaps pass rush ability will take priority for the Falcons.

I’ve come to this conclusion thinking why the Falcons worked out Jerry Hughes. Perhaps it’s due diligence and the Falcons are interested if Hughes can make the transition to defensive end in the pros. But the reports indicate the Falcons worked him out at linebacker, and I have no reason to doubt those reports.

So that got me thinking about whether Hughes would be a good fit here in Atlanta. If you’ve read my scouting report on Hughes, I didn’t think much of his chances of sticking in Atlanta as anything more than a situational pass rusher.

But I’m starting to change my stance. Because instead of the team looking for a linebacker that can be an upgrade over Nicholas in coverage, maybe they are trying to maximize their pass rush potential in order to find a player like Brian Orakpo. Orakpo split time at outside linebacker and defensive end for the Redskins this past year and proved very productive in that role (11 sacks). When the Falcons go to the nickel package, Nicholas is pulled off the field. Obviously if the Falcons replaced him with a player better in coverage, then that player could stay on the field. But the Falcons are going to have to pull someone off the field in nickel situations in the front seven to make room for the extra cornerback.

They don’t want that player to be Curtis Lofton, otherwise it makes the team susceptible to the run. Because opponents will just force the Falcons into nickel situations and just run the ball out of three and four-wide sets. This happened quite a bit when Ed Hartwell was the middle linebacker. And I’m sure the Falcons want Mike Peterson (or his successor) also to be the other nickel linebacker.

So then the question comes how does the SAM linebacker get work in nickel situations? Rushing the passer. He can play end, spelling whoever is the starter at left end and play on passing downs. This is exactly what Orakpo did last year, playing as a stand-up linebacker on first and second downs and then putting his hand on the ground on third downs.

Does Hughes fit this mold? He definitely gets the job done as a situational pass rusher. But the concerns about Hughes is whether he is going to be an impact defender as a stand-up linebacker when playing the run and the occasional times he has to work in coverage. Orakpo didn’t have much success in that realm, but obviously there is an acceptable amount of trade-off when you can get 11 sacks. Personally, I think South Carolina’s Eric Norwood is a better fit for the Falcons since he’s much more developed as a run stopper and coverage guy having played in space at linebacker the past two years.

Last year, I wasn’t that high on Clay Matthews because I thought he didn’t fit too well in our scheme. The Falcons reportedly showed considerable interest in Matthews last year, and at the time it didn’t make a ton of sense to me since I didn’t expect him to get a lot of opportunities as a pass rusher in our scheme. He went on to have 10 sacks for the Packers last year.

But now I’m much more open to the Falcons drafting a “tweener” at linebacker that may traditionally be viewed as a better fit in the 3-4 than 4-3.

Peria Jerry

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution did a good job covering the Falcons over the weekend at the Combine, providing us with some good quotes from both coach Mike Smith and GM Thomas Dimitroff.

But it is interesting that beat writer D. Orlando Ledbetter published on Monday that among the five things we learned from the Combine, one of them was that the team would not be selecting a pass rusher in the first round.

I think it certainly is possible that the Falcons could pass on a pass rusher with their top pick. But I doubt it has much to do with the fact that the team believes that Peria Jerry’s return the lineup suddenly fixes their defensive end position, which is what the quote from Thomas Dimitroff given to Ledbetter seems to imply.

Now, since I was not in Indianapolis to hear the exact context and content of his conversation with Dimitroff, I can’t be sure. But judging from the statement released in the paper, Dimitroff’s quote doesn’t seem to rule out the team drafting a defensive end. Here is the exact quote released: Read more…

Kendrick Lewis

Safety is the lone area on the defensive side of the ball that isn’t a significant need for the Falcons. The team has invested in the position the past two drafts with Thomas DeCoud and Willliam Moore, and instead will concentrate their efforts on developing those two.

DeCoud had a breakout year as the team’s free safety, in large part due to an injury suffered by Moore in training camp. DeCoud’s ability in coverage, range, and playmaking abilities seem to improve as the season wore on. Moore missed much of camp with a nagging hamstring injury and also had his knee scoped. He eventually came back about a month into the season, but then had a more serious hamstring issue come up and missed the rest of the year.

Erik Coleman was the starting strong safety, but Coleman didn’t have as productive a year there as he did in 2008 at free safety. And it’s likely the team will have him and Moore competing directly for that job this summer.

The only real issue at safety is depth. But veteran corner Brian Williams also has experience playing both safety positions, and in a pinch could be a decent option if he is retained. Antoine Harris, Charlie Peprah, and Jamaal Fudge are also on the roster, but are essentially special teams players. The team could target a reserve safety that has more upside on defense and push those players off the roster.

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