To be honest, I have not paid that much attention to any of the hype of the past two weeks. Mainly because it hurt my soul to not see the Falcons playing in this game, and to watch any of ESPN or NFL Network over the past two weeks just felt like picking at a scab.

It basically is two fairly evenly matched teams facing off. I’m not sure why the spread is 4, it really should be like 2.

Baltimore Ravens (13-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-4-1)
Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 6:30 pm ET on CBS

*Line: 49ers (-4)

The Falcons showed two weeks ago that the 49ers can be thrown on. Their secondary is their Achilles heel as they could not handle the likes of Julio Jones. Torrey Smith is probably not even a notch below Julio in terms of his ability to make plays downfield and Flacco is among the best vertical passers in the game. So one would think that they are ripe to be picked apart again. But I think the difference is that Baltimroe doesn’t have a Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez to also draw the 49ers attention. Well I guess Anquan Boldin is basically like Gonzo, as at this point in his career he really is just a tight end. But the combo of Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss is a far cry from Roddy White. So I don’t see the Ravens having quite the success of the Falcons against the 49er secondary. Not unless tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson really step up. Wait, let me rephrase that, not unless Pitta steps up. since Dickson is never really a factor. So I don’t see Flacco just chucking the ball downfield as he’s done throughout the playoffs with the same degree of success. There will be opportunities, but I don’t expect to see him throwing for nearly 400 yards as Ryan did in the NFC Championship Game.

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This is the weekend where legends are formed. Every paper and sports blog in America, and many across the globe will run stories about lesser-known players like Stephen Nicholas, Robert McClain, Rob Ninkovich, Bernard Pierce, or Alex Boone over the next two weeks should their teams win on Sunday. When your team is in the Super Bowl, suddenly every aspect of your team becomes interesting. When your team is not, no one cares. Regardless of how much success you’ve had this season up to this point, if you lose this weekend, the storyline becomes about why you weren’t good enough as opposed to being pretty darn good to make it this far in the first place. People tend to become only focused on all the things that are missing for you to taste and experience that glorification that comes from two weeks of Super Bowl coverage.

The beauty of this year’s conference championship matchups, is that you’re going to get a fairly compelling Super Bowl matchup no matter what. If it’s Patriots-49ers, then you get that Belichick vs. Harbaugh hype. You also get the connection between Kaepernick and Brady, where Kaepernick’s usurption of an injured Alex Smith’s job in his second season and coming from virtually out of nowhere is so similar to Brady’s beginning back in 2001 with Drew Bledsoe.

If it’s Patriots-Falcons, you can get the Master vs. the Student hype with Belichick and Dimitroff. You also solidify those comparisons that people like myself have made with Matt Ryan and Tom Brady.

If it’s Ravens-49ers, you obviously get the Harbaugh Bros. storyline. You get the Flacco-Kaepernick storyline that centers around the fact that 2 months ago no one would have believed they’d be squaring off in New Orleans.

If it’s Ravens-Falcons, then you get the Flacco vs. Ryan storyline that has been brewing since both emerged as dynamite rookies in 2008, and kicking off this mini-run of successful rookie quarterbacks (and yes, I’m purposefully forgetting Roethlisberger).

I picked the Broncos over the Ravens straight up last week, and should’ve gone with my heart and taken the Ravens. I have an aunt that lives in Baltimore that is a die-hard Ravens fan, so if my picks are right this week, it should make the next two weeks very interesting.

Last week, I went 3-1 both against the spread and straight picks, bringin my playoff record to 6-2 against the spread and 5-3 straight up. I picked the Ravens to go to the Super Bowl in my preseason predictions, and if they do, that will mark two years in a row where I have successfully picked the AFC representative. A trifle, but it makes me feel at least semi-competent in terms of my prognostication skills. But here are my picks:

Ravens over Patriots
Falcons over 49ers

For more detailed analysis of why I picked the teams I did, keep on reading after the jump.

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As I did a week ago in preparation for the Seattle Seahawks matchup, I went back and watched several San Francisco 49ers games over the past two days. I really wanted to take a more in-depth look at the team that most of the football-watching world feels will be the NFC representative in this year’s Super Bowl XLVII.

For much of this year I have considered the 49ers to be the premier team in the NFC, even ahead of my beloved Falcons. And from watching the film, my opinion has not changed.

Yes, I’m saying the 49ers are a better team than the Falcons. But that is not the same as saying the 49ers will be a better team on Sunday, nor is it is saying they will beat the Falcons. The 49ers are a team that are very similar to the Seahawks, except probably better in a lot of the same areas. The Falcons playing Seattle last week was probably the best possible preparation for this game as they won’t have to drastically change their gameplan from a week ago due to many of those similarities between the two teams. But the 49ers do present a number of interesting challenges for the Falcons.

Much has been made about Colin Kaepernick and the read-option as he absolutely ran circles around Green Bay’s defense last week. Although I think as it applies this week, it has been much ado about nothing. This will not be the Falcons first rodeo when it comes to the read-option, unlike the Packers. The Falcons have now faced Cam Newton twice, Robert Griffin, and last week saw Russell Wilson. The Panthers, Redskins, and Seahawks did not appear on the Packers schedule this year. They were ill-prepared for what Kaepernick and that play could do against them. The Falcons will have no such excuses. Only the Dallas Cowboys have played as many games (5) against read-option teams as the Falcons. The Falcons haven’t shut down the read-option, but with the stakes this high it would be a major surprise if it’s a deciding factor in the game as it was a week ago against Green Bay.

Kaepernick is a dangerous quarterback because he specializes in big plays. He is one of the league’s best vertical passers, completing a league-high 60% of throws over twenty yards, and anybody that saw only the highlights of last week’s game knows how deadly he can be with his legs.

That is where he is most dangerous, with his legs. He is blessed with deceptive speed due to his long strides. If he can get to a corner, your defense is going to be in trouble because he’s going to run right by you. Often times watching the 49ers on tape, he’s 10 or 15 yards downfield before the defense can even react to him. The Falcons employed a lot of zone against the Seahawks last week due to the fact that they wanted most of their defenders to keep their eyes on Russell Wilson, to try and defend against his scrambling ability. Wilson presented similar challenges, but not all running quarterbacks are built the same.

Due to Wilson’s shorter stature, he struggled throwing from the pocket. It was important for the Falcons defense to try and contain him to the pocket. That is really not the same challenge that Kaepernick presents. If you confine him to the pocket, he’s going to pick you apart because that is not where he struggles. He’s very tall and has no issues locating throwing lanes unlike Wilson. Surprisingly, getting Kaepernick outside the pocket seemed to work well for defenses from what I saw on tape. His shoddy footwork and mechanics causes him to struggle to reset his feet and square his shoulders when throwing on the run, resulting in a lot of off-target passes. So there’s a bit of a risk-reward. If you can flush him, it can make him into a much less efficient passer, but also it increases the risk he gets to the outside and uses his legs for a big gain.

It’s going to be interesting to see how Mike Nolan tries to deal with that. I don’t think you can really mush rush Kaepernick quite like you could with Wilson. While you definitely don’t want to get out of your lanes with him as he can easily step up and run for big yardage, I do think you want to make a much more concerted effort to get pressure on him. Against the Rams and Seahawks, it seemed like edge pressure really gave him fits at times. John Abraham is sporting a bum ankle, and there’s no doubt that he will play in this game. But there’s also no doubt that he won’t be at full strength. Basically you’re crossing your fingers at this point that Abe pulls a gutsy performance and manages to make an impact in this game basically on one leg.

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The Falcons did what they needed to do on Sunday. I just hope they don’t shut it down next week against the 49ers now that they’ve finally won a playoff game. They haven’t reached the summit of the mountaintop, that will occur with a win next week. And even when you get to the top of that peak, you emerge to see a second even taller peak off in the distance that represents winning the Super Bowl. Let’s hope that Mike Smith has the Falcons prepped with a sherpa and some climbing gear.

My initial reaction for how the Falcons match up against the 49ers is not very promising. The 49ers present many of the same challenges as the Seahawks, but only better. They won’t be missing Chris Clemons like Seattle was, as Justin Smith and Aldon Smith will likely be playing and near full strength. They have many more dangerous weapons on offense that require a lot more man coverage. The Falcons looked to be playing a lot of zone against Seattle in order to keep all of their eyes on Wilson and his scrambling ability. That was one of the reasons why guys like Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, and Zach Freakin’ Miller were wide open throughout the day. I don’t think the Falcons can try to get away with what against the likes Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, Vernon Davis, etc. Which means that the front line has to be more disciplined and do a better job of trying to contain Kaepernick on the read-option. That appeared to be the Achilles Heel of the Packers on Saturday night, as they did not seem prepared for it or equipped to play it. That won’t be an excuse for the Falcons with a week to prepare and that they have perhaps seen more read-option than any other defense this year. Getting John Abraham back healthy will be key, and if the Falcons plan on winning and containing the 49ers explosive offense, they will need him to play all four quarters.

However, I do like the fact that Kaepernick really struggled against the noise in Seattle in Week 16. Similar to Wilson, it appears Kaepernick is a much different QB on the road. I also like the fact that this will be Harbaugh’s first road playoff game. Will that matter that much? Probably not, but it at least gives me some hope that the 49ers won’t be that sharp, which I think might be necessary if the Falcons are going to pull the upset. And let’s not be naive here, it will be an upset if the Falcons win. The line for that game opened up with the 49ers being a 3-point favorite. The 49ers have the capacity to utterly dominate the Falcons in the trenches. It’s going to be a fun week as I try to dig deep to find flaws that can be exploited by the Falcons in this matchup.

In order for the Falcons to win, I think it has to be similar to yesterday’s game, where the Falcons get an early lead. But unlike against the Seahawks, the Falcons can’t take their foot off the pedal.

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When the Falcons moved up 21 spots in the 2011 draft to take a wide receiver by the name of Julio Jones, it made headlines. Most pundits and experts believed it was not a smart trade, but also signaled that the Falcons were “all in” for the 2011 season. To give up the sheer amount of picks they gave up for a second top-level wide receiver did not make a lot of sense. And I agreed with these opinions. I questioned the move and still question it today. I believe the Falcons gave up too much in that trade for Jones. Jones has been an excellent player, but so have been a number of lesser receivers taken in that same draft class such as Torrey Smith in Baltimore and Denarius Moore in Oakland. Had the Falcons held onto those two first round picks and used them on other problem areas (such as the offensive line) and drafted one of those lesser receivers, I think they could be a better team for it. But we’ll never really know the answer to that question.

But what we will know is that whether Jones’ presence on the roster pays off on Sunday. Jones and White are widely considered the best tandem of receivers in the NFL. Throw in Tony Gonzalez, and it’s hard to find a better trio of targets for a quarterback to throw to. Alone is that good enough to win a playoff game, something the Falcons have yet to do under head coach Mike Smith? Of course not. But it is the primary asset of this Falcons team. Those three players along with Matt Ryan are the one thing that distinguishes tthem from other teams, essentially it is what makes them “special.” They will be facing one of the league’s best pass defenses in Seattle, and what many deem the best cornerback tandem in the league in Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. It will be the one matchup that all eyes will be glued upon.

“This is no disrespect to Mike Jenkins, because he’s a damn good receiver. But I’ve always been intrigued with the prospect of having a one and one-A with Roddy and someone like Julio.”

This was quote from Thomas Dimitroff cited by Michael Holley in his 2011 book War Room. Will the presence of the 1 and 1-A make a difference tomorrow? It didn’t really a year ago against the Giants. But it will have to this year because of that spotlight mentioned earlier. If having a 1 and 1-A receiver does indeed make a difference worth all of those draft picks, then this will be the game to showcase it.

And if you’re asking me my opinion about what will happen, I think Jones and White will make that difference. Despite my misgivings about the trade, this is the perfect chance to prove doubters like myself wrong. From watching film of Browner and Sherman, I don’t think they have the ability to match up with a pair of elite receivers like Jones and White. And I think if the Falcons offensive line can provide the necessary time for Ryan, he will be able to deliver the balls to make that obvious. If the offensive line is not good enough, then it raises those questions about whether the Falcons would have been better off using those high picks on blockers as opposed to another dynamic wideout. Either way, we should have a fairly definitive answer on whether the trade paid off for the Falcons or not by tomorrow evening.

The Falcons have had an extra week of practice, and thus the capacity to add some new wrinkles to the offense this weekend. My hope is that the extra time allowed the Falcons to really come up with a winning gameplan against the Seattle Seahawks. And as previously noted, I think that should include more Jacquizz Rodgers and less Michael Turner.

The Falcons offensive line has struggled to create push this year. It has been one of the main reasons why Michael Turner has been a non-factor. The other main reason is that Michael Turner over time has diminished in ability. Father Time still remains undefeated. With all of the hits that Turner has taken over the years with the Falcons, he no longer has the burst, quickness, or lateral agility that he once did. Turner was never a guy that shined in those areas as the majority of his success from 2008-10 with the Falcons was because Turner was an elite after-contact runner. But over time, Turner is no longer that force of nature after contact. And his skills in those other areas has gone from average to poor. And basically that means he needs a lot more space to run, something the Falcons front five have had increasing difficulty creating since the loss of their top run blocker, Harvey Dahl, in 2011.

The strength of the Seahawks run defense is the middle, where they have a lot of beef in Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, and Alan Branch. It’s no secret that center Todd McClure is not a power blocker. Right guard Peter Konz while a capable run blocker, is neither consistent nor powerful enough to push a 320-pounder like those three off the ball. And that’s also never really been left guard Justin Blalock’s game, as he too is not consistently a “plus” run blocker. And while Mike Cox has done a solid job this year lead blocking, he’s not the guy that can clear a hole quite like Ovie Mughelli could in his heyday. If the Falcons intend to run a lot into the teeth of the Seahawks defense, they are playing to Seattle’s strength and their own weakness.

Instead, the Seahawks will be playing a 250-pound Bruce Irvin nearly every snap due to the injury to Chris Clemons. Greg Scruggs will be rotating in as well. Greg Who? Exactly. Right tackle Tyson Clabo, the Falcons best run blocker should be matched up quite a bit with Irvin, who normally plays left end. The smartest thing for the Falcons will be to attack Irvin wherever he lines up on the field when they want to run the ball.

And the simple truth is that if the Falcons do attack the edges on the ground, Michael Turner is not their best candidate. Both Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling, while underused, possess a better skillset to get out on the edge than Turner. If the Falcons intend to run the ball, and trying to maintain some semblance of balance will be beneficial for the Falcons, it plays to their strength to feature a lot more Quizz and/or Snelling, and a lot less Turner. Rodgers, smaller stature, outstanding quickness and lateral agility means he doesn’t need as much space to work with as Turner. He can find creases, cutbacks, and do a better job finding daylight not only on the edge, but also up the middle if/when the Falcons do decide to try and pound it.

Not to mention the fact that the Falcons are a pass-first team, that will likely try to tire out the Seahawks front four with a lot of no-huddle. Rodgers has overwhelmingly been their featured guy in the no-huddle due to his solid pass protection skills, as well as his ability to make impact plays in the passing game. While Turner is a capable pass protector, he is really a weak link when it comes to catching the ball. A four-yard pass on a checkdown to Rodgers has a chance to go 20 yards. The chances Turner drops that checkdown are much higher than the chances he turns it into a big gain.

Turner still should be the go-to guy for the Falcons in short-yardage and near the goalline. But on the majority of snaps, whether it’s a run or pass, having Rodgers on the field gives the Falcons the best possible matchup against the Seahawks.

What I’m afraid will happen on Sunday is the Falcons being overly “loyal” to Turner. I thought the Falcons should have gotten rid of Turner this past off-season. I think they did not because of the hope that he still had something left in the tank, and it would have not looked great dumping a guy that had had the four-year run that Turner had in Atlanta outright. And I think at certain points this year, the Falcons have continued to put Turner as a big part of their weekly gameplans out of that same loyalty, when it’s been fairly clear since the middle of the year that the offense functions better when Rodgers is on the field. I just hope the Falcons don’t get into that same mindset where they are giving Turner unnecessary reps Sunday over some gooey feelings for the guy. The bottom line is the Falcons need to win on Sunday. I believe that Rodgers gives them the best chance to do that. And I hope that Dirk Koetter has devised a plan of attack that reflects that.

Back in November, Bill Barnwell of Grantland wrote a nice piece discussing Matt Ryan’s playoff record. Barnwell’s main argument was that Ryan’s 0-3 record in January was overrated because it had happened to many a great player from Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, John Elway, etc. The only real difference is that for Ryan (and Manning) it was at the beginning of his career as opposed to the middle or end. I thought it was a good read, but the value of it may be lost on many people. Like it or not, the crosshairs are stuck squarely on Ryan this weekend. If the Falcons lose this game, people will say he’s incapable of winning big games. If the Falcons win on Sunday, a very ugly and oversized gorilla will remove itself from Ryan’s back.

It is commonly said that quarterbacks receive too much credit when teams win, and too much blame when they lose. And despite most people in general agreeing with this statement, it doesn’t stop them from continuing to do it. You look at a player like Joe Flacco, who has won multiple games in the postseason, but has not really performed at a high level in the majority of them. Yet, Flacco continues to get credit for being a “winner when it matters,” and Ryan does not.

When you look back at Ryan’s performances in the Falcons’ playoff losses, they haven’t really been poor. Against the Cardinals, he made some mistakes (his first throw was an interception), but the reason why the Falcons lost was because essentially the defense couldn’t handle the Arizona Cardinals offense. The Falcons were a run-first team that ran their offense through Michael Turner back in 2008. In that Cardinals game, the defense quickly gave up two big play touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin before they could really get Turner going. Midway through the second quarter they were down 14-3 and forced to play a game they did not want to, which was throwing to catch up. The Falcons didn’t have much of a deep passing game at that point, as that was predicated on play-action and Turner’s running. But Ryan played well enough to get them back in the game until the very end where the defense once again buckled to lose it. Now compare that to say Andy Dalton, who is in similar circumstances in Cincinnati where he is not the facilitator of the offense. And look at when the Bengals have gotten behind against the Texans the past two years, has Dalton helped his team claw its way back into those games?

Against Green Bay, no one should be blaming Ryan for a poor performance. Outside his throw on the pick six to Tramon Williams before halftime, anybody that suggests Ryan didn’t play well enough to win that game is crazy. If Michael Jenkins doesn’t slip in the endzone on the preceding drive, it’s more than likely that outcome of that game goes much differently as the Falcons could have held a 21-14 going into halftime. Instead, Jenkins loses his footing and the Packers get two quick scores, and the game gets out of reach for the Falcons by the time the half hits. And again, much of that had to do with the fact that in 2010 the Falcons were still an offense that was centered around their ability to run the ball, wear down offenses and keep their defense from getting exposed. That’s exactly what the Packers did in that game, and that has very little to do with anything Ryan could or could not have done.

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I’ve watched quite a bit of Seahawks games on NFL.com’s Game Rewind to prep myself for this preview. I watched how they fared against New England’s and Buffalo’s offenses. I wanted to see how they did against a top quarterback with weapons (something they haven’t seen much of this year) and a dynamic wideout in Stevie Johnson who brings similar tools to the fold as Roddy White. I also looked at their Week 12 loss against the Dolphins, to see how the Dolphins pulled off that victory. I also wanted to see what the New York Jets did in Week 10 to cause Russell Wilson to have one of his worst games of the year. And of course I looked at their matchup last week against the Washington Redskins.

What I discovered was a very good Seahawks team that plays a style that is going to be a difficult matchup for the Falcons.

The key to Seattle’s success is their strong running game helmed by Marshawn Lynch and Tom Cable’s zone-blocking scheme. Lynch is one of the best after contact runners in the league, and the Falcons defense has struggled throughout this year with their tackling. If they aren’t swarming to the ball and Lynch gets too many one on one situations with our linebackers and safeties, the Falcons could be in for a long day.

Lynch’s running is the foundation of their offense. With it, they utilize a lot of play-action and read option with Russell Wilson. The Falcons have been fairly solid against those two, but have had their lapses. They’ve faced Carolina (twice) and Washington, both of whom utilized a lot of read option, so they will be prepared. However neither Carolina nor Washington used much of it in their early matchup. The only time the Falcons have seen a lot of it (and I suspect Seattle will use it quite a bit) was in their Week 14 loss to Carolina. During that game the Falcons did give up a pair of long touchdowns on read option on a Cam Newton run and a screen pass to DeAngelo Williams. But I feel somewhat confident that Mike Nolan may have fixed many of those kinks in the subsequent weeks.

If the Falcons can contain Lynch, it will be difficult for the Seahawks to overcome it because it might force them into playing a way they don’t want to play, which is a dropback passing game. Russell Wilson’s short stature has made it difficult for him to be your typical pocket passer at this level. He likes to get out on the move, using his legs and throwing downfield. In fact, it reminds me quite a bit of the Falcons circa 2002 with Michael Vick. It’s what makes Seattle so dangerous since Wilson is prone to breaking some long runs. The key for any defense against them will be to contain him to the pocket and force him to use his arm, not his legs. The former has not quite developed, and he still is prone to making some youthful mistakes against the blitz, similar to Vick.
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Last week I went 3-1 with my straight picks, and split against the spread. I hope to do better this week. Here are my straight picks this week:

Denver over Baltimore
San Francisco over Green Bay
Atlanta over Seattle
New England over Houston

Yep, no real surprises, taking all of the favorites. The odds are against me that all the favorites and home teams will win. But I feel like 2012 will be an aberration from previous years where home teams/favorite generally split in the wildcard and divisional rounds. Click on after the jump to read the more detailed breakdowns of my picks.

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I am joined once again by my friend Allen Strk to recap the Falcons 2012 season. We give our thoughts on a plethora of Falcon players and our favorite moments from the season. We discuss the health of players like John Abraham, William Moore, and whether Mike Smith made the right call playing the starters against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But quickly our attention turns to the Falcons upcoming playoff matchups, each giving our opinions on the different scenarios the team could see in the second round. We each give our insights on the Redskins, Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers, and Packers as potential obstacles to the Falcons potential journey to the Super Bowl. Eventually we wind up giving our picks for who will make it to the Super Bowl, as well as our thoughts on the many coaching vacancies around the league.

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Duration: 1 hour, 10 minutes

Allen writes for TJRSports.com as well as the Bleacher Report. His twitter handle is: @Allen_Strk.

 

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