Fresh off a regular season where I was fairly accurate with picking against the spread in ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em, I’m going to start posting picks each week. I’ll continue to do this in 2013, but I figure the opening round of the playoffs is the perfect time to get things started. More than likely that means all my picks from this day forward will be way off-base, but when has been wrong ever deterred me?

So here are my picks for this weekend’s games:

Cincinnati over Houston
Green Bay over Minnesota
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Seattle over Washington

Keep reading for more detailed breakdowns after the jump.
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Aaron is back and is joined by Allen Strk and Scott Carasik for a lively conversation on a wide range of Falcons-related topics. You’ll hear their thoughts on many of the current Falcon players and what sort of seasons they are having in 2012 and what they could be expecting in the future. You’ll also hear them opine on some past Falcon players as well. Scott shares many of his thoughts on what the Falcons could be looking at in the draft and this upcoming off-season. They give their insights on what the upcoming playoff picture could look like for the Falcons. This episode does contain EXPLICIT content, so be forewarned.

Part 1:

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Duration: 1 hour, 2 minutes

Part 2:

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Duration: 1 hour, 6 minutes

Allen writes for TJRSports.com as well as the Bleacher Report. His twitter handle is: @Allen_Strk. Scott also writes for Bleacher Report and ScarDraft.com. You can also hear Scott on his weekly radio show: “Kvetching Draftniks Radio.” His twitter handle is: @scar988.

 

If you have any questions and comments, you can hit us up on Twitter, post in the forums in the podcast thread, or drop an e-mail at: pudge@falcfans.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can also subscribe directly to our feed at the following URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/falcfans/LXSt

Typically these previews consist of two parts, the first detailing how the Falcons upcoming opponent could beat them, and the second consisting of what the Falcons can do to counter that. But this week, I just couldn’t really find enough material to write up how the Oakland Raiders could beat the Falcons this week.

Not to say it’s not possible, but it really is just a repeat of what I’ve said the past two weeks with the potential gameplans of the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins. The Raiders will rely on a ground attack to keep the explosive Falcons offense sidelined, and try to generate some big plays offensively, as well as create turnovers on defense and try to get a boost on special teams. Not exactly a ground-breaking formula, as it’s going to become the norm for most teams that play the Falcons this year.

But as the Panthers, Redskins, and Raiders all try to adopt the same gameplan/formula for beating the Falcons, unfortunately for the Raiders they are the weakest team of the three. And thus, it will be hardest for them to execute such a plan. See, in the cases of both Carolina and Washington, they had a couple of playmakers on either side of the ball that if things went their way they could really challenge the Falcons. And to a certain extent, things did go both teams’ ways, which is why the Falcons had to come from behind in both games to pull out the victory.

But I don’t expect the Raiders to get such luck. While Darren McFadden presents a challenge to the Falcons defense, I don’t think he presents as much as DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Alfred Morris did. The Raiders run a zone-blocking scheme similar to what the Redskins have, but they are not quite as good upfront, and McFadden has not quite gotten the hang of the Greg Knapp offense. Outside a 64-yard run against the Steelers in Week 3, McFadden is averaging 2.4 yards on his other 57 carries. That run, and another are the only gains he’s had of the year longer than 10 yards. Morris has been one of the better runners after contact in the league this year, while McFadden is more of a finesse, speed guy. I don’t expect Falcons defenders to have as much trouble getting him down as they did against Morris.

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The biggest key for the Falcons this week will not be getting off to the slow start they did a week ago. They want to take advantage of their passing attack going against the weak Redskin secondary.

The health of Julio Jones (hand) will be a factor in this game. The team will need him to have a bigger game. He will have that opportunity going up against DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. Hall struggled with the size that A.J. Green and Vincent Jackson presented on the outside the past two weeks, and thus the Falcons hope to similarly take advantage with Jones. The last time Roddy White went against Josh Wilson, he had one of his better games in 2010. He wound up catching 12 passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner against the Ravens on Thursday Night that year. Tony Gonzalez will also be licking his chops going up against Madieu Williams and DeJon Gomes. He’ll also get some opportunities going up against the Redskin linebackers in London Fletcher and Perry Riley.

Because of the advantages the Falcons feature in this game, even if they get behind early they should still be able to get back into the game. The one worry the Falcons have is their pass protection. Last week, Tyson Clabo really struggled to block Charles Johnson. His job won’t get much easier as he’ll be facing the Redskins top pass rusher in Ryan Kerrigan. Kerrigan is not an elite pass rusher in the class of Brian Orakpo (out for the year), but he has the skills to give Clabo fits with his speed on the edge.

Pat Hill will likely be lighting a fire under the butts of the line, and Dirk Koetter will likely modify the protections and play-calling to try and prevent the breakdowns that occurred last week.

The running game has looked somewhat resurgent in recent weeks, but it’s unlikely that it will do a lot this week vs. Washington. The strength of the Redskins defense is their front seven and in the middle. But that doesn’t mean that the Falcons won’t try to make some plays on the ground. The area where they may try and attack is the edges by trying to get Turner and Rodgers going on some outside runs. If Jones’ hand limits his effectiveness as a receiver, the Falcons may try to get the ball in his hands on reverses, end-arounds, and screens to try and attack those edges as well.

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As I outlined a week ago in the preview for the Panther game, there are two basic formulas/blueprints that teams are likely to adopt to try and knock off the Falcons.

Like Carolina, Washington will likely adopt the one that involves running the football and trying to shorten the game so that the explosive Falcons offense stays on the sideline. Carolina was nearly successful in pulling off that gameplan, but made a few too many mistakes and allowed too many big plays from Atlanta to get the win. Washington will try to do what Carolina could not do.

Washington’s gameplan will involve a heavy dose of their ground game. Alfred Morris is having a solid season and looks like a great fit behind Washington’s zone-blocking line. He is the newest back in the long line of runners that has shined in Mike Shanahan’s offense. The Redskins will likely also try and take advantage of Robert Griffin III’s mobility much like Carolina did with Cam Newton to supplement Morris.

Washington will want to get out to a fast start, because they don’t really have the playmakers on the outside to really try and come from behind against Atlanta. Griffin is off to an excellent start this season, but he’s still not quite developed enough as a passer to think he can drop back and throw the ball a bunch of times and win that way. He’ll likely rely on his legs to extend plays and try and make something out of nothing, which he has done numerous times already this season.

That is an area where they could attack the Falcons defense. It’s going to be difficult for the Falcons to get Griffin down because he is especially adept at avoiding sacks, extending plays, and creating things with his arm and legs in the face of pressure.

However like Carolina, pound for pound Washington just can’t match up with the Falcons. Thus why they will also need to take advantage of some costly mistakes by the Falcons. They will need to create some turnovers and hope the Falcons make some mental errors and shoot themselves in the foot a couple of times.

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As mentioned earlier, the Panthers do have some of the tools to potentially beat the Falcons. But I do not think they will.

If the Falcons just have a “normal” game based around what they have done these first three weeks they will beat the Panthers. They simply are a better team. But they cannot take the Panthers lightly, because as mentioned earlier, the Panthers can do a couple of things that can hurt the Falcons.

The main key for the Falcons is going to be able to throw to win. They can throw fairly easily on this Panther secondary. Rookie Josh Norman is likely to be matched up on Julio Jones on the outside for most of the game. Norman is not a bad player, and down the road he might turn into a pretty good starting corner. But he’s not there yet, and I think Julio should be poised to prey on that. The question becomes is Julio’s hand injury more serious than we expect, and will it impact the game?

What is interesting about Roddy White is that you look over the past few seasons, and there is always one game against Carolina where he’s very good, and another where he’s just mediocre. And there’s no real rhyme or reason to which performance he has. Sometimes it is at home, sometimes on the road. But you wonder if Jones is less than 100%, and this is the game that Roddy decides not to show up for, then the Falcons could potentially be in trouble.

I don’t think that will happen, and it’s going to be a cold day in hell when both Roddy and Julio are no shows on this offense. But this is also why the Falcons have Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas, to help pick up that slack.

The Panthers run defense is weak, so I suspect Michael Turner and the ground attack could have another strong week. I would be shocked if Blalock and Reynolds have much problems with the Edwardses (Dwan and Ron) and opening lanes for Turner. The Falcons seem poised to give Rodgers a bit more reps on the ground going forward, and he could also have a good day.

Defensively, John Abraham tends to have a field day against the Panthers. I expect the Falcons to be able to get pressure against Newton. Newton has that ability to extend plays and make things happen with his legs, but the Falcons have been fairly competent at containing that. I think the Falcons will try and be aggressive with Newton, attack him with blitzes and challenge him to make accurate throws downfield.

Mike Nolan is probably going to throw a lot of things at Cam, frankly things that I can hardly imagine at this point. But if he can design schemes that can get Peyton Manning off balance, he can certainly do some things that can get Newton’s mind twisted.

Because the Panthers will likely rely on a steady ground attack, like last week, Akeem Dent should get more opportunities to emerge. That should also mean increased reps for Ray Edwards as well.

Cam Newton is currently second in the NFL in terms of highest interception rate. And the Falcons right now are the most opportunistic secondary in the league. This is why this should be a good matchup for the Falcons. With Abraham’s pressure and Nolan’s blitzing schemes, they should be able to create a number of turnovers this week. At some point this season, the Falcons defense is probably not going to be able to create multiple turnovers in a game. But I doubt that this week is the time when that occurs.

It’s becoming less and less about the Falcons opponents, at least during this early slate of 2012 games. It’s becoming more about competing with themselves for this Falcon team. Meaning their biggest obstacle is their own complacency. The day they decide to just show up some place, and think they can win with minimal effort, is the day they will get beat.

And what Mike Smith has done a pretty good job instilling in his time in Atlanta, is a hungry mentality week to week that keeps his team motivated and moving forward. And that is why I think they will win this game. It’s a division rival, and it’s an opportunity to really send out a signal to the other teams in the division and conference that this team is as formidable as advertised. It’s their first NFC game, and while they have eleven more that will also affect the season, they cannot really afford to dig themselves in a hole at the outset with an 0-1 record. Especially to a division rival and lesser team like Carolina.

Long gone are the days of Mora where as a fan you weren’t sure what Falcon team would show up in a given week. The Mike Smith Falcons are much more consistent, and rarely lay eggs. I expect that trend to continue and the Falcons extend their record to 4-0 this week.

First off, let me say that I do not believe the Falcons will lose to the Panthers. I’ll get into some of those reasons later, but I think our offense will just be too much for their defense. Carolina’s secondary is weak, a glaring weakness on their entire team. If anything surpasses it, that would be their run defense. It was atrocious last year, and this year it has graduated to horrible.

Now granted the Falcons run defense hasn’t been that much better this year, but at least the Falcons’ excuse is that they’ve played a ton of nickel, which has led to some cracks being exploited.

The Falcons shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball against the Panthers defense and ultimately scoring a lot of points. Frankly, if the Falcons cannot put up at least 27 or 28 points in this game, it will be very disappointing.

But after watching this Falcon team over the first three weeks, and see them slap around a number of teams, a target is forming on their backs. They will be a team to beat, and everybody is gunning for No. 1. So you will start to see teams implement strategies and rules to beat the Falcons. I think these strategies will fall under two main blueprints:

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Through the magic of the internet and the ability to splice the meat of three separate live podcasts together, Ryan and I preview and then recap our thoughts on the Falcons win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. You’ll also hear my thoughts on what matchups to look out for in an extensive preview of the Falcons’ Week 2 contest against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. Other topics include the injury to Brent Grimes and its potential immediate and long-term ramifications on the Falcons season.

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Duration: 1 hour, 15 minutes

 

If you have any questions and comments, you can hit us up on Twitter, post in the forums in the podcast thread, or drop Ryan an e-mail at: ryan-valdez@live.com or myself at: pudge@falcfans.com. Don’t forget to drop by every week to hear our live broadcast at: ustream.tv/channel/falcfans-show

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can also subscribe directly to our feed at the following URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/falcfans/LXSt

Part of my preliminary scouting report against the Broncos suggests that the Broncos pass rush is going to be a formidable matchup for the Falcons. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are the exact type of defensive ends that typically have given Sam Baker and Tyson Clabo fits in the past.

And because of this strength of the Bronco defense, it has the potential to cancel out the greatest strength of the Falcons offense: their passing attack. While Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez certainly have the capacity to do to the Broncos secondary what they did to the Chiefs this past Sunday, they will not be able to if Ryan is lying on his back. And if the Broncos are able to get pressure with just four guys (and how can they not when Von Miller is one of the four?), it means more guys can drop into coverage to deal with the Falcons’ potent weapons.

Similar to the playoff game against the Giants, the biggest obstacle offensively for Atlanta is going to be slowing down the Broncos pass rush. And how the Falcons plan on handling this as well as their execution of it, will be a very good litmus test in determining just how much further this team has come since last year’s playoff loss.

My best guess for how the Falcons will try to handle the Broncos front is three-fold:

1) Establishing the Run
2) Screens
3) No-Huddle

Establishing the run was the Falcons primary solution to the Giants pass rush, but in that game it failed because of the offensive line’s inability to open holes. It’s not the exact same starting five since Will Svitek and Joe Hawley started against the Giants. But remember that last year Svitek and Hawley outperformed Sam Baker and Garrett Reynolds, respectively. So if they couldn’t get the job done, then why should we expect Baker and Reynolds to?

The Falcons didn’t need Turner or the ground game to be effective against Kansas City. Without Brandon Flowers and little pass rush sans Tamba Hali, Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack had no obstacles to moving the ball at will against the Chiefs.

But that will not be the case this week, and the Falcons will need Turner and the offensive line to come up big.

The Broncos run defense was a question mark going into the season, but they passed their first test against the Steelers, bottling up starter Isaac Redman (11 carries, 20 yards) and that ground attack to 75 yards total for the game. Rookie Derek Wolfe made some nice plays in that opener, and how the Falcons handle him could be a deciding factor in the game.

The Falcons won’t need Turner to have a 150-yard game for him to accomplish the goal of establishing the run. But the Falcons need to be effective with their runs early in the game, showing that they can put themselves into 3rd & manageable situations to make it easier on the passing attack to execute. The more 3rd & shorts the Falcons can muster, the easier it should be on the line because Ryan will be able to get rid of the ball quicker to move the chains. It’s more about being able to 4 and 5 yard gains every time Turner touches the ball. One positive for Turner is that the Broncos don’t have great linebackers, who had some issues with missed tackles against the bigger, bruising Steeler tailbacks. If the line can open the holes for Turner, then he has the capacity to do some things on the second level that can turn those 4 and 5 yard gains into 15 and 20 yard gains.

Will Turner and the line be better prepared to answer the challenge this week that they could not answer a season ago? Who knows, but it certainly will make this Monday Night contest that much more exciting to watch for Falcon fans.

Ryan and I discuss and preview the Falcons Week 1 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in this week’s episode. You’ll also hear our opinions on the Falcon’s additions to the practice squad, as well as whether an interview of Mike Nolan divulges some question marks within the Falcons front office. During our preview of the Chiefs game, you’ll hear our thoughts on how certain aspects of the Falcons offense and defense match up with the Chiefs. Later in the episode, we are joined by a FalcFans.com forum member in Allen Strk, who helps us reminisce on past Falcon players and games. You’ll also hear some thoughts on current Falcons, as well as predictions for the upcoming 2012 season including how good we think the Falcons will be and whether or not they are good enough to make the Super Bowl.

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Duration: 54 minutes

 

If you have any questions and comments, you can hit us up on Twitter, post in the forums in the podcast thread, or drop Ryan an e-mail at: ryan-valdez@live.com or myself at: pudge@falcfans.com. Don’t forget to drop by every week to hear our live broadcast at: ustream.tv/channel/falcfans-show

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. You can also subscribe directly to our feed at the following URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/falcfans/LXSt