There are a few questions that the Falcons must be able to answer on Sunday if they want to win their first playoff game under Mike Smith and beat the New York Giants.

1. Can the Falcons stop Victor Cruz?

The biggest potential mismatch for the Falcons in their secondary is their nickel corner on Victor Cruz. Cruz is the Giants top receiver, leading the team in catches (82), yards (1536), and touchdowns (9). The Falcons will be putting Dominique Franks in the nickel. Franks has had his moments in recent weeks, but has also had his issues working at the nickel. A notable issue was last week against the Bucs, where Franks was beat by Preston Parker for a 48-yard completion while working out of the slot. Plays like that cannot happen this week. The Falcons don’t need Franks to shut down Cruz, but just contain him similar to the Redskins did in Week 15 where he only caught 5 passes for 44 yards, which was one of the weaker performances of Cruz all year long.

2. Can the Falcons slow the Giants pass rush?

The other matchup that could cause potential problems for the Falcons is trying to slow down the Giants pass rushers: Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Osi Umenyiora. Tuck hasn’t had quite the season he is used to having with 5 sacks, but he’s still a tough matchup for any right tackle, and Tyson Clabo will have his hands full. Last time the Falcons played the Giants, Clabo gave up two pressures to Tuck. But the biggest question probably comes from the Falcons left tackle Will Svitek and whether he can face Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora. Pierre-Paul led the Gaints with 16.5. Umenyiora managed 9 sacks in 9 games, and came back in Week 17 after missing several games with an ankle injury to get a pair of sacks in a key game against the Cowboys. Svitek started strong when he first subbed in for Sam Baker at midseason, but down the stretch his play tailed off.

The Falcons are probably going to have give each of these guys a bit more help, by playing a few more times in max protection, where tight ends and backs stay in to chip and help slow those guys. Which will put more emphasis on the Falcons receivers to separate and get open.

3. Can the Falcons pound Michael Turner?

One the ways the Falcons can help slow down the Giants pass rush will be if they can effectively run the ball. Turner had a strong performance against the Bucs in Week 17, but the Bucs were one of the league’s worst run defenses. The Giants are better, but not exactly a strong in run defense. So the potential is there for the Falcons to be able to control the clock and tempo with a running game. The issue the Falcons face is that prior to the Bucs game, Turner had five pretty mundane performances, including two road games against Houston and New Orleans, where he was virtually a non-factor. That cannot be the case against the Giants, where the Falcons are going to need Turner to have success early, and be able to carry that through the rest of the game.
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The Falcons will host the undefeated Green Bay Packers for the third time in the past 316 days this weekend on Sunday Night football. The Falcons did beat the Packers in their first matchup last November thanks to a strong rushing attack, and some redzone miscues by the Packers. But they were thrashed in their playoff matchup last January, 48-21, with the Falcons defense forcing no punts in the game, and the game being practically over by halftime.

The Falcons are hoping to get some revenge this week, and need something to kick-start their sluggish start to the 2011 season. Their offense has been out of sync most games, and the defense has been hit and miss at times. A win over the Packers could galvanize this team to a very strong finish.

But a win won’t be easy. Many consider that the Packers are the league’s best team. Their offense has been unstoppable this year, ranking 1st in scoring offense and 5th in total offense this year. That is thanks in large part to the MVP-caliber season that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been having, sporting a passer rating of 125 through 4 games. The Falcons are going to have to find a way to slow down Rodgers if they want to have any chance to win this game.

Controlling the clock and limiting the Packers opportunities on offense might be the best method. Which requires the Falcons offense to be firing on all cylinders, something the team has yet to see for a full four quarters this year.

But anyway, here are some of the notable matchups I see this week.

Matchups I Like

Falcons WRs vs. Packers secondary

There aren’t a ton of matchups that favor the Falcons in this game. But in last year’s playoff game, the Packers put Charles Woodson in the slot often against Tony Gonzalez, effectively taking Gonzo out of the game. If they do the same thing this year, then the Falcons will get an opportunity to match up the emerging Julio Jones or Roddy White against the Packers third best corner: Sam Shields. Particularly Jones, with his size could be a tough out for a smaller corner like Shields, particularly after the catch.

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I’ll try to post a handful of matchups that favor the Falcons as well as their opponents for each game they play this year. The Falcons open the season against the Chicago Bears, a team that has a similar style and mentality as they do, which is to run the football and play good defense. While the Falcons want to be a more explosive team, they still aren’t likely to veer to far from that sort of identity.

Despite having eccentric Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator, the Bears in the latter half of the season began to play to their strengths, which is one of the reasons why they won their division and finished as the NFC’s second seed behind the Falcons. That strength is their defense, and offensively they decided to be more conservative and not put the turnover-prone Cutler in situations where he had to bear the load.

The Falcons will want to get into a position where the Bears will be forced to throw the ball frequently, that way the Falcons defense can potentially create turnovers by preying on the Bears inexperienced offensive line and Cutler’s propensity to make mistakes.

Defensively, the Bears biggest weakness is their secondary, and if this game becomes an aerial battle, the matchups favor the Falcons.

Matchups I Like

 

Falcons pass rush vs. Bears O-line

As I wrote in August, I think the Falcons pass rushers should be licking their chops to face this Chicago Bears front. While the Bears did show some improvement over the course of the preseason as their new unit tried to gel together, it’s probably not enough where this matchup tilts anywhere close to the Bears favor. John Abraham will be facing J’Marcus Webb, a player that he should give major fits due to his ability to go right past him with speed or through him with power. On the opposite side is Ray Edwards, and he’ll face rookie Gabe Carimi. Edwards should have some veteran savvy to throw his way, being able to use his speed to get around the edge as well. Throw in Kroy Biermann getting some looks as well on either side of the line and you have a lot of heat coming off the corner for the Falcons all day to get pressure on Jay Cutler.

And a player that should not be forgotten in this matchup is Jonathan Babineaux. At left defensive tackle, he’ll be matched up against new right guard Lance Louis, who struggled in a handful of starts last year. Back in 2009, Babineaux routinely dominated replacement level guards, and if he intends to get back to that sort of level this year, then doing the same against Louis can be a very good tone setter for this season.

The average NFL offensive line gives up slightly more than 2 sacks per game. It should not be surprising if the Falcons are able to double or even triple the average production against the Bears defensive line.
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I imagine when the line comes out today or tomorrow, the Falcons will only be favored by one or two points in this game. Considering Vegas gives the home team an automatic three points and the Falcons are one of the teams with one of the more widely known home-winning records, such a low line is actually an indicator that Vegas thinks Green Bay is the superior team.

The emergence of running back James Starks is a worrisome development for the Falcon faithful. When the Falcons took on the Packers in Week 12, Green Bay had no real running game. In that game, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was the team’s leading rusher with 12 carries for 51 yards. The Falcons rushed three for much of that game, which allowed Rodgers ample room to step up in the pocket and scramble for first days down all day. Among the Packers running backs, Brandon Jackson had a paltry 10 carries for 26 yards. The Packers were one dimensional on that November day in Atlanta, and it greatly helped the Falcons achieve victory.

In the following week, Starks emerged with 73 yards on 18 carries. It wasn’t a mind-blowing statline to the conventional fan, but one has to remember that it was the best single total by a Packers running back since Brandon Jackson’s 115-yard performance in Week 5. And with Stark’s 23-carry, 123-yard performance on Sunday afternoon against the Eagles, it doesn’t seem like the Falcons can count on the Packers being one-dimensional again.

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I certainly know a lot of Falcon fans were disappointed with the outcome of last week’s game. I was too, but if you had read my preview of the game then you knew exactly what was coming. I don’t mean to toot my own horn, but I think I pretty much nailed that matchup. I’m trying for two in a row.

I watched the Cardinals-Rams game from last week to get prepped for my analysis of this game. And after seeing that game, I have to say that the Rams should have won that game. The Cardinals truly got outplayed, but if not for three interceptions by Sam Bradford, they probably would have lost.

That being said, I don’t expect the Cardinals to lay down for the Falcons. But I don’t see them as nearly a formidable matchup as the Steelers were.

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I’m not sure how regular this will be as the season unfolds, but I’ll try to do one each week if I can. Since this is the first game of the season, I really don’t have any excuses not to do it. But I’m going to be looking at the different matchups that I like and don’t like as the Falcons prepare for the Steelers.

Matchups I Like

Dennis Dixon vs. the Falcons defense

I know many Falcon fans were worried about the possibility of Dixon starting this week instead of Byron Leftwich. They’d rather face the statue of Leftwich rather than the mobile Dixon.

I’m not too worried. Dixon will likely be able to make some plays with his legs, but his accuracy and decision making are the biggest areas of concerns for the Steelers offense. He has only had limited work with the first team offense, so he isn’t likely to be on the same page with most of his receivers. He is only making his second NFL start, so he will also be prone to making a lot of rookie mistakes. How he recognizes defense, how he sees the field, and whether he can make good decisions and put the ball on the money with accuracy to his receivers must be a major concern for the Steelers brass, otherwise they would not have been so reluctant to start him.

The Falcons will likely look to confine him to the pocket where he is going to be less dangerous. Safeties Thomas DeCoud and Erik Coleman will likely be a big reason why if the Falcons are able to take advantage, sitting back and reading Dixon’s eyes and breaking plays on the ball. The hallmark of young quarterbacks is a tendency to stare down his targets, which allows defensive backs, especially safeties a greater opportunity to jump routes and break up plays.

Steelers Right OL vs. Falcons Left DL

This matchup features rookie center Maurkice Pouncey, right guard Trai Essex, and right tackle Flozell Adams versus the Falcons left side of their line which will feature mainly Kroy Biermann at left end, Peria Jerry at left tackle, and Jamaal Anderson splitting time at both spots.

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FALCONS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE

Advantage: Texans (slightly)

Despite the progress we made last week, I do think our offense will come a bit back down to Earth this week. Although Peppers and Jenkins are an excellent duo, they aren’t currently on a hot streak like Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye. The pass rush concerns me, as I’m still not sold if these team can stop the blitz. The fact that the Texans D was relatively stingy against the Colts last week doesn’t bode well for us.

FALCONS DEFENSE VS. TEXANS OFFENSE

Advantage: Falcons

This is a matchup we really need to take advantage of. Ahman Green is questionable, and the Texans top 2 receivers: Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones won’t play, as well as their ace return threat Jerome Mathis also being sidelined. Our run defense was terrible last week, but hopefully they rebound and shut down Dayne and Gado this week. It will be tough since Babs is out as well as Coleman now. Although the Texans no longer have a big play receiver, Schaub showed that he can get production out of Andre’ Davis and Owen Daniels. And with D-Hall possibly being benched for a quarter or two, our secondary will be pressured. We have to put pressure on Schaub. Giving him time, he WILL pick apart this defense. Abraham needs a big day, and this will be a great week for Jamaal Anderson to do something useful. The only reason I give us the edge is because the Texans are so beat up.

OVERVIEW

Our defense needs to come through this week and make some plays. Get some sacks, create some turnovers, and for Pete’s sake stop the run. Offensively, if we finish some drives, then I think we have this game won. I know Schaub and Okoye will have something to prove this game. Schaub for being traded, and Okoye for being snubbed in the draft by his old coach. But considering we’re an 0-3 team, we should have 53 guys that are hungry for a win instead of just 2.

FINAL SCORE

Falcons 19, Texans 17

Okay, in the past two games, I picked the Falcons to win despite the “logic” that indicated they would lose. That’s going to change this week.

FALCONS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE

Advantage: Panthers (both)

The Panthers have given quite a bit of points considering their defense is currently ranked 6th in total defense. But considering the offensive struggles the Falcons have had putting points on the board, those issues won’t be as big this week. The Falcons really need to get out of a funk and start scoring.

FALCONS DEFENSE VS. PANTHERS OFFENSE

Advantage: Falcons (run), Panthers (pass)

Steve Smith is off to another brilliant start, and it will of course be DeAngelo Hall’s task to try and slow him down this week. A tall order. Hall is certainly capable, but it’s time he start really proving to the world he’s an elite cornerback, which will mean keeping Smith from becoming a factor in this game. Luckily for the Falcons, aside from Smith, the Panthers offense doesn’t represent any significant threat. Their running game is improving, but it’s not exactly the kind that should be running wild against the Falcons like they did late last season. If the Falcons can put pressure on Delhomme like they did in Week 1 last year, they can potentially take Smith out of the game. And unfortunately for the Panthers, it isn’t proven whether Foster and/or Williams can win them the game yet.

OVERVIEW

The Panthers win in three out of four categories. And it hasn’t been the defensive matchups that have hurt the Falcons, but the offensive ones. Our passing game hasn’t been as prolific as hoped this season, and the running game is average at best so far. Until this changes, or until the defense plays absolutely lights out a la the Patriots or Bears, then wins are going to be few. Are the Falcons capable of turning themselves around? Yes, certainly. It’s a division opponent, but it’s also a new head coach for the Falcons, so how he fares against the Panthers is anyone’s guess. The team can get a boost from home field, but I’m not sure how supportive the fan base is going to be this week.

Final Score

Panthers 20, Falcons 13

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE VS. JAGUARS RUN DEFENSE

Advantage: Jaguars

As most know, the Jags were slashed all last week by the Titans in what looked a lot like the opening games of the Falcons last year against the Panthers and Bucs. But the Jags defense’s reputation is one that they are very tough to run on. It would seem that poor tackling and injuries hurt them against the Titans, and at least on the latter front there shouldn’t be too much improvement this week. The Falcons have a chance to establish a ground attack early against the Jags. But I do think that still given their Week 1 performances, I’m going to give the edge to the Jags, because they seem a unit less likely to have a repeat performance.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE VS. JAGUARS PASS DEFENSE

Advantage: Falcons

The Falcons really didn’t stretch the field last week, and generally their secondary has been the weaker part of Jacksonville’s defense. I would want to put the Falcons up here. I think there will be improvement from the passing game as Harrington gets more comfortable in the offense. And the Jags secondary isn’t that impressive despite having Mathis and Nelson back there.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE VS. FALCONS RUN DEFENSE

Advantage: Jaguars

The Jags weren’t able to establish the run because they were getting beat last week. The Falcons couldn’t stop the run consistently last week. I would expect this to be a “breakout” game for the Jags in the sense that they’ll start to look like the running offense that ranked No. 2 last year. I don’t think this is a big difference here though.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE vs. FALCONS PASS DEFENSE

Advantage: Falcons

I still think our secondary is weak, but luckily we don’t have to face another top quarterback this week. Garrard is better than Tarvaris Jackson, and the Jags receivers are better than any we faced last week. They could give our undersized corners some issues because in the past size has hurt us more than speed. This is only barely in the Falcons favor just because I have the feeling we’ll be able to put more pressure on the QB this week.

OVERVIEW

Once again, on the ground the Jags have the advantage, while I think we have it in the air. And again, traditionally that should mean the Jaguars win this one. But once again, I’m going to back my Falcons because I feel we will see an improved team from a week ago. And I’m not sure the Jags are that much better than the Vikings. Del Rio reminds me too much of Mora in that they are an inconsistent team that rarely plays at top form. The Jags top form will smoke the Falcons, but I think the Falcons will look vastly improved. At least my “homer-ism” makes me believe that.

Final Score:

Falcons 20, Jaguars 19

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS RUN DEFENSE

Advantage: Vikings

The Vikings had one of the best run defenses in NFL history last year, allowing only 2.8 yards per carry (almost as good as the 2000 Ravens defense). Unless Pat Williams gets lazy all of sudden because of the contract extension he signed this week, it doesn’t seem like that is going to change. Will they probably give up more yards this year? There’s probably 99% chance the answer is yes. But will they still probably be one of the top run defenses in the league? It seems almost as likely that answer is yes as well. Our running game will take a hit because of our change in blocking schemes. Had we still had the zone blocking scheme, I wouldn’t be concerned at all. But with the change, we will have some trouble opening holes.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS PASS DEFENSE

Advantage: Falcons

The Vikings pass rush really struggled last season. It should be better this year (it can’t get much worse). But I think we should have an advantage at wide receiver, particularly when we go 3-wide, with Jenkins liking lining up in the slot and Horn on the outside. If they are matched up against Marcus McCauley and Cedric Griffin respectively, I think it bodes well for us. Our advantage isn’t huge, because our passing game is unproven, but I’m willing to give Petrino’s offense the benefit of the doubt.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE VS. FALCONS RUN DEFENSE

Advantage: Vikings

This was a tough one for me to give to the Vikings, but I’ll give it to them barely. Just because they have 2 healthy RBs with what should be a pretty good offensive line (particularly their left side), and we have injuries at defensive tackle. I don’t think the Vikings are going to run all over us on Sunday (although I’m sure they will certainly try), but I do think they’ll have the upperhand in this category.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS PASS DEFENSE

Advantage: Falcons

Now I think our secondary is the weakest aspect of our team, but I also think the Vikings passing game is weaker. Jackson didn’t have a good summer from most accounts, and I don’t think he’s going to be ready right away to lead this team. If this was perhaps Week 7, I might be singing a different tune, but Week 1, I think our weakened secondary can take advantage of their wide receivers and quarterback.

OVERVIEW

Now conventional wisdom suggests that the team that controls the ground game is going to win. Clearly, then the Vikings should win this game, particularly since they are at home. But as many know, conventional wisdom need not apply on Sundays. I also think we’ll be able to force some turnovers in Jackson, and I’m hopeful that Joey won’t be as turnover-prone vs. Minnesota as he has been in the past. I think that’s going to be the key. Turnovers. Whoever wins that battle will win this game. I’m putting my money on the Falcons for now.

FINAL SCORE

Falcons 23, Vikings 20.