RB Kendall Hunter

The third of the draft consists of rounds four through seven. Ideally, when this portion of the draft rolls around you’ll find guys that you labeled as second and third round targets still available on the board. They will take precedent over any of the players listed here. But this is typically the day of the draft where teams are no longer targeting talent, but trying to fill specific holes and weak spots on the roster and depth chart.

You can click to read the first round and second/third round targets. As before, these are based off my own grades and rankings of players. Click on their names to read scouting reports of each prospect.

FOURTH ROUND

In the fourth round, you are trying to border on the guys that still have starting potential, but also can provide immediately depth. With the guys that have starting potential, you don’t feel like there is a strong possibility they will achieve it. But even if they fall short, you feel like they can add good value as backups and role players. These are the types of players that if they become starters for you, more than likely it will come in their third or fourth years. They have long-term developmental potential, but in the immediate future you’re just looking for guys that can bolster depth.

CREAM OF THE CROP

67. OG Stephen Schilling, Michigan
68. WR Austin Pettis, Boise State
69. LB Mark Herzlich, Boston College
70. WR Tandon Doss, Indiana

Read more…

DE Adrian Clayborn

Day Two of the draft now consists of the second and third rounds. Here I will be discussing which players the Falcons should be targeting in those rounds. If you missed it, you can click here to see my rankings of the Falcons first round prospects and targets. These consist of my own rankings of players, and is not to be regarded as an indicator of where these players will go. Some of these players may be drafted in the first round, while others may slip in the draft and potentially last into the fourth or even fifth rounds. If that is the case, then you may find very good value in the middle portion of the draft.

With second round picks, you want to find a player that can come in and immediately contribute. Now in some cases that may be a player that is a quality reserve. In others, it may be as a starter. But all of these players should project to be starters for you by the end of their second season, and should project to becoming very good, albeit probably not great ones. Second round picks tend to have some flaws that prevent them from being big-time impact players. Perhaps they aren’t premium athletes or have some character concerns.

CREAM OF THE CROP
One of these players is ideal for drafting with the team’s No. 59 overall pick at the end of the second round. Ideally, one of the players in your Top 28 will fall to you there. But if not, you’d be very happy taking one of these players with that pick.

29. S Rahim Moore, UCLA
30. OC Rodney Hudson, Florida State
31. TE D.J. Williams, Arkansas
32. DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
33. WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh
34. OG Ben Ijalana, Villanova
35. OT Derek Sherrod, MIssissippi State
36. CB JImmy Smith, Colorado
37. OG Danny Watkins, Baylor

Read more…

Patrick Peterson: No. 1 on the board

It’s time to look at the top prospects who should be at or near the top of the Falcons draft board. This is looking at guys that the Falcons should potentially be targeting at the top of the draft. Twenty eight players here are listed and it’s a definite that one of them will be available when the Falcons pick at No. 27. But in truth, you’re hoping that someone in your Top 15-20 will be there for you to draft rather than “settling” for someone that is near the end of your list.

These are based off my own rankings and grading of players. Each player is linked to their scouting report page in the forums.

ELITE PROSPECTS

These are the cream of the crop players because they are the best in the draft as far as your needs are concerned. If you had the ammunition to trade up in the draft, these would be the guys you would target. You normally are of the mind to never give up next year’s No. 1 pick, but one of these players is potentially worth it. These are the sort of players that form the foundation of your team for over a decade.

1. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
2. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
3. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
4. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

TOP PROSPECTS

These players aren’t quite elite because they have some risk to them. But they have a high upside to be very good players on your team and should definitely fill needs. If one of these players drops in the draft, you’d be willing to move up some to get them. But you certainly wouldn’t mortgage the future to do so.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
7. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
8. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
9. Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

UPPER LEVEL PROSPECTS

Quality prospects that can be immediate impact players and should become one of your signature players in the years to come. When people are rattling off the Top 5 players on the Falcons a few years from now, you’re confident they will list one of these players.

10. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
11. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
12. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
13. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

Read more…

Not much has been going on on the FalcBlog this off-season. But we’re getting closer to that boring point in the summer, and I’m hoping to write a lot more from this point on.

Well, it is that time of year again. It’s draft time, and as has been case for the past few years, I’m posting the top players in the draft. Just published the site’s draft guide tonight (you should check it out) and I’ll just take it directly from that. This will only be the Top 25 players, but if you peruse the draft guide, you’ll find over 200 players ranked on the Falcons board.

This isn’t the 25 best players in the draft as you’ll notice because Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford do not appear. But these are the Top 25 players as far as the Falcons are concerned…

1. LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
2. DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
3. DE Everette Brown, Florida State
4. DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
5. S William Moore, Missouri
6. DE Larry English, Northern Illinois
7. S Louis Delmas, Western Michigan
8. LB Brian Cushing, USC
9. CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
10. CB Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest
11. OT Jason Smith, Baylor
12. WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
13. RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
14. OT Michael Oher, Mississippi
15. TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
16. RB Beanie Wells, Ohio State
17. OC Alex Mack, California
18. OT Andre Smith, Alabama
19. CB D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt
20. DT Evander Hood, Missouri
21. LB Rey Maualuga, USC
22. DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi
23. S Patrick Chung, Oregon
24. WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina
25. S Rashad Johnson, Alabama

I apologize for the tardiness on this column, for it was a busy week at work.

Week 10 Results
Predictions: 8-8
Blowouts: 1 of 3 correct
Non-blowouts: 11 of 13 correct

Season Totals
Predictions: 83-61
Blowouts: 11 of 32 correct
Non-blowouts: 889 of 112 correct

Not since Week 5 have I had a winning week. That’s not good. It is growing clear to me that these rankings are not designed to correctly predict winners. That was never it’s intention to be a resource in order to predict weekly winners, but it would have definitely been an added bonus. So if I decide to bring this back next year, I’ll have to come up with some other method of making these rankings somewhat interesting.

Week 11 Predictions
Steelers over Browns
Panthers over Rams
Ravens over Falcons
Redskins over Bucs
Eagles over Titans*
Bears over Jets*
Saints over Bengals
Dolphins over Vikings
Chiefs over Raiders
Bills over Texans
Patriots over Packers*
Seahawks over 49ers
Cardinals over Lions
Cowboys over Colts
Chargers over Broncos
* indicates an expected blowout

RNK TEAM (W-L)        OVR  RTG  PREV 1  Bears (8-1)       7.27 7.65  +1 2  Chargers (7-2)    7.50 7.58  +1 3  Patriots (6-3)    7.03 7.45  -2 4  Ravens (7-2)      7.23 7.14   - 5  Cowboys (5-4)     7.37 6.82   - 6  Broncos (7-2)     6.87 6.76   - 7  Eagles (5-4)      7.20 6.70  +3 8  Seahawks (6-3)    6.23 6.58 +11 9  Colts (9-0)       6.50 6.57   - 10  Chiefs (5-4)      6.57 6.52  +111  Giants (6-3)      7.30 6.49  +212  Bengals (4-5)     6.90 6.48  +513  Jets (5-4)        5.77 6.46  +514  Dolphins (3-6)    6.03 6.51  +215  Saints (6-3)      7.00 6.42  -816  Jaguars (5-4)     6.07 6.40  -817  Steelers (3-6)    6.67 6.40  -318  Rams (4-5)        6.03 6.34  -319  Panthers (5-4)    7.00 6.32  +220  Vikings (4-5)     5.80 6.26  -821  Bills (3-6)       5.80 6.15  +122  Falcons (5-4)     6.53 6.12  -223  Redskins (3-6)    6.47 5.99   -24  Packers (4-5)     5.57 5.97  +125  49ers (4-5)       5.57 5.92  -126  Lions (2-7)       5.27 5.68   -27  Texans (3-6)      5.10 5.63  +328  Browns (3-6)      5.53 5.50  +129  Raiders (2-7)     5.17 5.49  -130  Titans (2-7)      5.33 5.48  +231  Cardinals (1-8)   5.03 5.47  -432  Buccaneers (2-7)  6.00 5.30  -1

The Falcons drop significantly this week because they’ll be sporting a M.A.S.H. unit, but I still think with their injuries they are significantly better team than the Browns and should win this one.

Week 9 Results
Predictions: 7-7
Blowouts: 0 of 3 correct
Non-blowouts: 8 of 11 correct

Season Totals
Predictions: 75-53
Blowouts: 10 of 29 correct
Non-blowouts: 78 of 99 correct

Okay through the first half of the season, my ranking system has accurately predicted 59% of the weekly winners. I’ve predicted 29 blowouts based on the ranking system, but only 10 of them have been correct, basically a third. Of the 99 other games that I did not expect to be blowouts, I was corrected 79% of the time.

Not bad, considering that I didn’t design this thing to be a weekly picks thing, just to illustrate which teams are likely to get to the Super Bowl.

Now, because we’re at the midpoint, it’s nice to look back and see where I thought teams would be in Week 1. So along with the usual, rise and fall of the previous week’s rankings, I’ll also show the rise and fall of the teams since Week 1.

I would have to say that the 5 teams that are significantly better than I thought they would be are: 1) Saints 2) Vikings 3) Eagles 4) 49ers and 5) Giants

The 5 biggest disappointments would be: 1) Panthers 2) Dolphins 3) Seahawks 4) Bucs and 5) Cardinals

It’s nice to see that with 13 teams, I was within 3 or so spots on the list 9 weeks ago, so generally those teams are basically having the sort of seasons expected from them.

Week 10 Predictions
Colts over Bills
Lions over 49ers
Chargers over Bengals
Ravens over Titans*
Falcons over Browns
Eagles over Redskins
Vikings over Packers
Patriots over Jets*
Chiefs over Dolphins
Jaguars over Texans
Broncos over Raiders
Seahawks over Rams
Cowboys over Cardinals*
Saints over Steelers
Giants over Bears
Panthers over Bucs
* indicates a blowout

RNK TEAM           OVR   RTG  PREV  WK1 1  Patriots      7.17  7.55    -   +3  2  Bears         7.10  7.53    -   +5 3  Chargers      7.33  7.46    -   +6 4  Ravens        7.27  7.17    -   +6 5  Cowboys       7.37  6.82    -   +1 6  Broncos       6.50  6.72   +1   -3 7  Saints        7.37  6.69   +5  +22 8  Jaguars       6.37  6.62    -    - 9  Colts         6.50  6.57    -   +510  Eagles        7.00  6.55    -   +811  Chiefs        6.57  6.52   +4   +612  Vikings       6.13  6.51   +1  +1313  Giants        7.30  6.49   -7   +714  Steelers      6.73  6.45   +4   +115  Rams          6.17  6.44   -1   +716  Dolphins      5.90  6.41   +5  -1117  Bengals       6.73  6.36   -1   +218  Jets          5.63  6.36   +1   +319  Seahawks      5.90  6.33   -2  -1820  Falcons       6.73  6.27   -9   -821  Panthers      6.83  6.19   +1  -1922  Bills         5.80  6.15   -2   +223  Redskins      6.67  6.14    -  -1224  49ers         5.57  5.92    -   +825  Packers       5.37  5.82    -   -226  Lions         5.27  5.68    -    -27  Cardinals     5.30  5.67   +1  -1128  Raiders       5.33  5.61   -1   +229  Browns        5.53  5.50    -   -230  Texans        4.90  5.48    -   +131  Buccaneers    6.13  5.40    -  -1832  Titans        5.20  5.38    -   -4

It wasn’t a good week for me, but it was better than the past two. It’s become apparent to me more and more that my “special” formula for predicting which are the good teams is not good at predicting who wins from week to week.

For this week’s rankings I went back and re-did the schedule rating to see where it stands now. And then after doing so, I realized that the old formula had the strength of schedule weighing a bit too much, so I tweaked it slightly. After this weekend’s game, we’ll be halfway through the year, so I’ll do a midseason review of some sorts, seeing where teams are now and how I saw them at the start of the year.

Week 8 Results
Predictions: 7-7
Blowouts: 2 of 3 correct
Non-blowouts: 9 of 11 correct

Season Totals
Predictions: 68-46
Blowouts: 10 of 26 correct
Non-blowouts: 70 of 88 correct

Week 9 Predictions
Falcons over Lions*
Bears over Dolphins
Bills over Packers
Ravens over Bengals
Cowboys over Redskins
Saints over Bucs
Rams over Chiefs
Giants over Texans*
Jaguars over Titans
Vikings over 49ers
Chargers over Browns*
Steelers over Broncos
Patriots over Colts
Seahawks over Raiders
* indicates a blowout

RNK TEAM          OVR  SCHED  RTG  PREV 1  Patriots     7.17  8.69  7.55   +2 2  Bears        7.10  8.81  7.53   -1 3  Chargers     7.33  7.82  7.46   -1 4  Ravens       7.27  6.87  7.17    - 5  Cowboys      7.57  5.19  6.97   +2 6  Giants       7.67  4.06  6.77   +3 7  Broncos      6.87  6.45  6.76   +3 8  Jaguars      6.50  7.39  6.72    - 9  Colts        6.70  6.78  6.72   +210  Eagles       7.20  5.18  6.70   -511  Falcons      7.30  4.88  6.70   +412  Saints       7.37  4.66  6.69   +213  Vikings      6.30  7.62  6.63   +714  Rams         6.37  7.27  6.59   +815  Chiefs       6.57  6.36  6.52   +816  Bengals      6.90  5.23  6.48   -317  Seahawks     6.07  7.61  6.45    -18  Steelers     6.73  5.58  6.45    -19  Jets         5.63  8.52  6.36   -720  Bills        6.00  7.21  6.30   -421  Dolphins     5.70  7.92  6.26    -22  Panthers     6.83  4.27  6.19  -1623  Redskins     6.67  4.54  6.14   -424  49ers        5.57  6.96  5.92    -25  Packers      5.37  7.17  5.82    -26  Lions        5.27  6.93  5.68    -27  Raiders      5.33  6.44  5.61   +428  Cardinals    5.13  6.78  5.55   -129  Browns       5.53  5.41  5.50   +330  Texans       4.90  7.20  5.48   -131  Buccaneers   6.13  3.20  5.40   -132  Titans       5.20  5.90  5.38   -4

Two straight losing weeks, I hope I haven’t hit a wall or anything. Oddly enough for this week’s predictions, once again I expect the Colts to get their first L again although you’ll finally notice I’m giving them a little more love in the power rankings. Also, the Jets, Patriots, and Steelers are the only road teams that I’m predicting to win as well.

Week 7 Results
Predictions: 5-8
Blowouts: 0 of 4 correct
Non-blowouts: 7 of 9 correct

Season Totals:
Predictions: 61-39
Blowouts: 8 of 23 correct
Non-blowouts: 61 of 77 correct

Week 8 Predictions
Saints over Ravens
Chiefs over Seahawks
Packers over Cardinals
Bengals over Falcons
Bears over 49ers*
Titans over Texans
Eagles over Jaguars
Giants over Bucs*
Chargers over Rams
Steelers over Raiders*
Broncos over Colts
Jets over Browns
Panthers over Cowboys
Patriots over Vikings
* predicted blowout

RNK TEAM            OVR   RTG PREV1  Bears           7.10  7.59  +12  Chargers        7.53  7.34  -13  Patriots        6.73  7.01   -4  Ravens          7.27  6.88  +25  Eagles          7.47  6.84  +26  Panthers        7.33  6.83  +27  Cowboys         7.43  6.79  -28  Jaguars         6.50  6.79  -49  Giants          7.67  6.66  +910 Broncos         6.67  6.62  +111 Colts           6.73  6.57 +1112 Jets            5.80  6.53  +413 Bengals         6.90  6.52  +814 Saints          7.37  6.52  +515 Falcons         7.13  6.48   -16 Bills           6.00  6.45  -217 Seahawks        6.07  6.45  -518 Steelers        6.90  6.45  -119 Redskins        6.67  6.44 -1020 Vikings         6.30  6.44  -721 Dolphins        5.70  6.32 -1122 Rams            6.37  6.26  -223 Chiefs          6.57  6.20   -24 49ers           5.57  5.98  +125 Packers         5.17  5.92  -126 Lions           5.30  5.87   -27 Cardinals       5.00  5.57   -28 Titans          5.20  5.50   -29 Texans          4.90  5.49   -30 Buccaneers      6.13  5.49   -31 Raiders         5.17  5.32   -32 Browns          5.13  5.14   -

Two straight losing weeks, I hope I haven’t hit a wall or anything. Oddly enough for this week’s predictions, once again I expect the Colts to get their first L again although you’ll finally notice I’m giving them a little more love in the power rankings. Also, the Jets, Patriots, and Steelers are the only road teams that I’m predicting to win as well.

Week 7 Results
Predictions: 5-8
Blowouts: 0 of 4 correct
Non-blowouts: 7 of 9 correct

Season Totals:
Predictions: 61-39
Blowouts: 8 of 23 correct
Non-blowouts: 61 of 77 correct

Week 8 Predictions
Saints over Ravens
Chiefs over Seahawks
Packers over Cardinals
Bengals over Falcons
Bears over 49ers*
Titans over Texans
Eagles over Jaguars
Giants over Bucs*
Chargers over Rams
Steelers over Raiders*
Broncos over Colts
Jets over Browns
Panthers over Cowboys
Patriots over Vikings
* predicted blowout

RNK TEAM            OVR   RTG PREV
1  Bears           7.10  7.59  +1
2  Chargers        7.53  7.34  -1
3  Patriots        6.73  7.01   -
4  Ravens          7.27  6.88  +2
5  Eagles          7.47  6.84  +2
6  Panthers        7.33  6.83  +2
7  Cowboys         7.43  6.79  -2
8  Jaguars         6.50  6.79  -4
9  Giants          7.67  6.66  +9
10 Broncos         6.67  6.62  +1
11 Colts           6.73  6.57 +11
12 Jets            5.80  6.53  +4
13 Bengals         6.90  6.52  +8
14 Saints          7.37  6.52  +5
15 Falcons         7.13  6.48   -
16 Bills           6.00  6.45  -2
17 Seahawks        6.07  6.45  -5
18 Steelers        6.90  6.45  -1
19 Redskins        6.67  6.44 -10
20 Vikings         6.30  6.44  -7
21 Dolphins        5.70  6.32 -11
22 Rams            6.37  6.26  -2
23 Chiefs          6.57  6.20   -
24 49ers           5.57  5.98  +1
25 Packers         5.17  5.92  -1
26 Lions           5.30  5.87   -
27 Cardinals       5.00  5.57   -
28 Titans          5.20  5.50   -
29 Texans          4.90  5.49   -
30 Buccaneers      6.13  5.49   -
31 Raiders         5.17  5.32   -
32 Browns          5.13  5.14   -

It was not a good week for my predictions. After all that gloating last week, I follow up with a dismal 5-9 performance. I guess I could feel a little bit better that so many of the games I didn’t predict correctly were won by 3 points or less. Looking over this week’s predictions, the surprises I expect to see are the Colts suffering their first loss and the Raiders getting their first win. Well at least that’s what the formula is saying, although those aren’t predictions my gut would normally make.

Week 6 Results
Predictions: 5-9
Blowouts: 2 of 4 correct
Non-blowouts: 8 of 9 correct

Season Totals
Predictions: 56-32
Blowouts: 8 of 19 correct
Non-blowouts: 54 of 68 correct

Week 7 Predictions
Jaguars over Texans*
Panthers over Bengals
Patriots over Bills
Falcons over Steelers
Eagles over Bucs*
Jets over Lions
Dolphins over Packers
Chargers over Chiefs*
Broncos over Browns*
Seahawks over Vikings
Raiders over Cardinals
Redskins over Colts
Cowboys over Giants
* predicted blowouts

RNK TEAM           OVR  RTG  PREV 1. Chargers      8.07  7.72   - 2. Bears         7.10  7.59   - 3. Patriots      6.73  7.01   - 4. Jaguars       6.70  6.93  +1 5. Cowboys       7.60  6.91  +1 6. Ravens        7.43  7.00  -2 7. Eagles        7.47  6.84   - 8. Panthers      7.20  6.73  +6 9. Redskins      6.97  6.66  -110. Dolphins      6.17  6.66  +211. Broncos       6.67  6.62  +712. Seahawks      6.23  6.57  +313. Vikings       6.47  6.56  -214. Bills         6.13  6.55  -415. Falcons       7.17  6.50  -616. Jets          5.73  6.48  -317. Steelers      6.90  6.45   -18. Giants        7.33  6.42  +319. Saints        7.17  6.37  -320. Rams          6.37  6.26  +321. Bengals       6.50  6.23  -222. Colts         6.20  6.19  -223. Chiefs        6.40  6.08  -124. Packers       5.33  6.04   -25. 49ers         5.57  5.98   -26. Lions         5.30  5.87   -27. Cardinals     5.00  5.57  +128. Titans        5.20  5.50  +329. Texans        4.70  5.35  -230. Buccaneers    5.80  5.25   -31. Raiders       5.00  5.20  +132. Browns        4.97  5.02  -3