Snelling: Turner's successor?

Hopefully in the comings days or weeks, the NFL will be back open for business. And when that happens, we will get a free agency period. It’s no secret that the Falcons will need to make some decisions about their own free agents. Chief among them are their three starters along the offensive line, but also the Falcons will need to also prioritize bringing back Jason Snelling.

Keeping Snelling probably isn’t as hard now as it might have been in March. This past April, 24 running backs (not including fullbacks) were drafted, the most in over a dozen drafts. That means that the market for free agent running backs is much more lukewarm as many teams were able to fill their chief needs at that position with rookies.

That is not going to mean a player like Snelling won’t get any nibbles from other teams looking to sign him. But it is another positive that there are several other bigger-named free agents on the market such as DeAngelo Williams, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Joseph Addai, so it’s very unlikely any team will be offering Snelling a starter’s role and salary elsewhere.

The decision the Falcons have to make in regards to Snelling is not whether they want him back, but how much are they willing to pay to keep him. For the previously mentioned reasons, Snelling’s market value isn’t going to be huge, so it’s unlikely he’s going to price himself out of Atlanta. Whatever he asks for, the Falcons are likely going to be able to afford. But it all raises a question of what do the Falcons see as Snelling’s future value, and are they going to be willing to pay a premium for it?

As of today, Snelling’s primary value is as a third down back. According to Pro Football Focus, he is one of the best pass catchers among his position group in the league. And he’s also shown that he can be a valuable replacement on the occasions when Michael Turner has been injured over the past two seasons.

However, one wonders how much confidence these spot performances inspire in the Falcons brass? Do they see Snelling as a legit successor to Michael Turner? Do they see him as a future 1000-yard rusher in this league?

The answers to these questions certainly could be used as leverage points for Snelling and his agent when it comes to negotiations. If the answers are yes, then it could mean the difference a several million.

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What shakes out at the running back position will heavily depend on what happens in free agency for the Falcons. Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are both free agents. All signs indicate that the Falcons want to bring Snelling back, but there’s no guarantee that will happen and he could walk. The selection of Jacquizz Rodgers in the draft will likely push Norwood out the door, but the possibility of his return increases if Snelling signs elsewhere.

Unlike Matt Ryan at the quarterback position, the Falcons should not have to spend a ton of time and effort getting Michael Turner ready for the season. Although that could change if the Falcons aren’t keen on Turner’s conditioning when camp opens up. Hopefully, unlike past off-seasons, Turner put in the extra time to try and be in top conditioning in order to hit the ground running when football reconvenes.

If that is the case, then the Falcons can spend the extra reps trying to get Jacquizz Rodgers up to speed, particularly working in passing situations and on protections. If the Falcons lose both free agents, it will become paramount that Rodgers gets up to speed as quickly as possible since he will likely be the team’s top option on third downs since that was the primary role in which both Snelling and Norwood served the past three seasons.

Depending on how Rodgers does in that area will likely determine the chances that either Gartrell Johnson or Antone Smith remain Falcons in 2011. Both players’ experience makes them suitable alternatives if Rodgers, at least early in the season, isn’t up to the task. Johnson is the likelier of the pair to make the roster since he passed Smith on the depth chart during the course of 2010. His size and power make him a more suitable alternative in the event of injuries and the team needs an option to fill in on the ground. He was also slightly more productive of the pair on special teams as well.

At fullback, Pro Bowler Ovie Mughelli’s job is safe. The Falcons may toy with the idea of bringing another lead blocker to camp to add depth. The chances that happens increase if Snelling departs, since he’s the primary backup there. Although the Falcons might try and use their reserve tight ends as H-backs in such an event. Michael Palmer would have the best opportunity there.

Falcons Wrap Camp Exile

The Falcons finished their final day of what has been dubbed “Camp Exile” on Wednesday. That was the name of the player-organized sessions which primarily featured 7-on-7 workouts between offensive and defensive players. Matt Ryan, Curtis Lofton, and Coy Wire got majority credit for organizing the workouts that had varying attendance between 20 and 35 teammates over recent weeks. Perhaps the most noteworthy accomplishment for the camp was the ability for Ryan and top rookie wide receiver Julio Jones to lay a foundation and work to build a rapport for the upcoming season. (Source: D. Orlando Ledbetter, AJC)

Roddy confident about Falcons offense

On an appearance on NFL Network on Sunday Night, Falcons receiver Roddy White was brimming with confidence and expectations when asked about the potential success that the Falcons could have with rookie receiver Julio Jones added to the mix. White compared it to the famous St. Louis Rams offense of 1999, often dubbed the “Greatest Show on Turf.” It currently ranks as the 5th most potent scoring offense in NFL history, and until it’s record was broken by the 2007 Patriots, ranked first in terms of point differential between points scored and allowed by the defense.

It’s going to be special. It’s going to remind you of the greatest show on turf. We got a lot of explosive players and you know, I see a lot more explosive plays coming out of our offense. [Julio Jones] is a guy that can get downfield and make those things happen. And more one on one coverages with me so I can do my thing and get explosive plays.

(Source: NFL.com)

Snelling wants to stay in Atlanta, but willing to explore options

In an interview with Mike Florio on Pro Football Talk Live, Falcons running Jason Snelling shared his thoughts on the current CBA negotiations as well as his potential future with the Falcons. Snelling is expected to be an impending free agent if the new Collective Bargaining Agreement returns to players with four years or more being unrestricted free agent. Snelling indicated that he would like to return to the Falcons as they are at the top of his list, but also would be willing to explore other options in free agency if possible. (Source: Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk)

Jacquizz Rodgers

The Falcons moved up in the fifth round to select Oregon State running back Jacquizz Rodgers this past April. The team is hopeful that Rodgers can provide a spark on the ground using his trademark quickness that allowed him to rack up 3,877 rushing yards during three seasons at Oregon State. Another big part of Rodgers success was in the passing game, catching 151 passes for 1,056 yards to give him the second-most yards (4,933) from scrimmage in the country over the past three years.

But in order for Rodgers to make an immediate impact on offense for the Falcons will highly depend on his ability to pass protect. Pro Football Focus published numbers indicating that Michael Turner and Jason Snelling are two of the better pass protecting running backs in the league over the past three seasons. Turner scored a 3.93 pass blocking efficiency rating over the past 3 seasons, while Snelling had a rating of 4.3. Even Jerious Norwood wouldn’t have been much further down with a 4.71 rating. The Falcons relied heavily on Snelling in pass protection last season on third downs.

It’s no doubt that the Falcons will try to mix Rodgers in on third downs. His potential as a pass catcher is far greater than any back on the roster. His burst, vision, and quickness makes him an ideal candidate on screen passes, and is the type of guy that can pick up big yards after the catch when Matt Ryan checks down to him. But how much production he can achieve in the passing game will depend on his ability in pass protection.

But the most important aspect of a third down back is his ability in pass protection. More often than not on third downs, he’s going to be blocking more than actually running or catching the football.

Rodgers has potential there, but his lack of size hurt him at various times during his Oregon State career. He has the toughness for an undersized guy that you like to see, showing an edge comparable to players like Maurice Jones-Drew. But if he cannot be trusted in pass protection, then whatever advantage is gained from his potential as a receiver will be negated by the risk of injury to franchise player Matt Ryan that is raised if Rodgers isn’t up to par. Clearly, the Falcons have a fairly reliable set of blockers with Snelling and Turner to turn to. So if Rodgers cannot perform on a comparable level, then he’ll be on the outside looking in.

The expectations for Rodgers this year should be that he may take some time before he can garner significant reps on offense. As the season wears on however, should be a good indicator to what Rodgers is doing in pass protection, which will likely be directly linked to his playing time. All that said, Rodgers probably is not going to have a huge rookie season. But his development in the passing game will likely determine the future of Jason Snelling beyond this year. Snelling is a prospective free agent, but presumably will be re-signed before the 2011 season commences. But his long-term future in Atlanta may be directly linked by how much Rodgers can contribute on third downs.

Michael Turner (Getty Images)

Down the road the Falcons may potentially be turning into a pass-centric vertical offense, but at least for the time being that is not likely to be the case. In 2011, they will likely heavily lean on running back Michael Turner as they have done the past three seasons. But Turner is now age 29 and is coming off another season where he took a lot of abuse with 334 carries. One wonders how much is left in the tank.

When the Falcons signed Turner a few years ago only weeks after his 26th birthday, it seemed like they had gotten a steal. Turner had not gotten a lot of reps in San Diego during his four years there, so his age might have been that of a 26-year old, but the tread on the tires seemed comparable to that of a back three or four years younger. And with his dominant performance in his first season as a Falcon, it seemed like those expectations were spot on.

But the following year, his production dropped off due to injury. Many blame the curse of 370, which some smarter people than me have shown is largely a myth.

But Turner himself will blame the fact that he wasn’t in the best of shape. He came back in 2010 in better shape (less round), and improved. But one thing has been noticeable in all three years since he’s signed, the Flacons are relying less and less on Turner to make their offense go. A big reason for that is the progression of Matt Ryan. Ryan took real steps forward last year, and many expect him to do so again. The Falcons added Julio Jones as well as Jacquizz Rodgers in the draft, and so one wonders where does Michael Turner fit into all of this?

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The Falcons offense was one of the least explosive offenses in the league in 2010. And it’s been a major point for the Falcons front office to try and change that headed into 2011.

At the running back position the Falcons currently have Michael Turner. Turner receives the bulk of the Falcons carries on the ground, at about 75% each of the last three seasons when healthy. That probably isn’t going to change in 2011. But since 2008, the Falcons have made a concerted effort to reduce some of Turner’s workload. And what can help that significantly if the Falcons can have reliable options behind him as a change of pace. Jason Snelling had a strong finish in the 2009 campaign, but outside his Week 2 performance as a replacement to an injured Turner, he didn’t contribute a ton in 2010 on the ground. Jerious Norwood missed almost the entire year, and his future in Atlanta is in doubt. If the Falcons can secure a solid No. 3 running back in the draft, it should all but end Norwood’s disappointing tenure in Atlanta due to his inability to stay healthy.

And the most likely target for that No. 3 spot is a quick, explosive back that can be a factor on third downs.

Thankfully for the Falcons, this draft class seems to be loaded with those types of runners, with teh Falcons more than likely targeting one in the middle portion of the draft. At this point, my expectation is that the ideal range where the Falcons will take a back is somewhere between the third and fifth round of the draft, with them trying to address other needs earlier.

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The Falcons continued to garner postseason honors with four members being named to the Associated Press’s All-Pro team. Wide receiver Roddy White and defensive end John Abraham were both named first team All-Pros, while running back Michael Turner and fullback Ovie Mughelli earned second team honors.

White was also named to the PFW/PFWA All-NFL team earlier this month. This is the first time White has been honored by the Associated Press. He held the most votes among the wide receivers with 47 out of 50 AP voters casting him on their ballots. Abraham earned his 2nd 1st-team All-Pro honors, last receiving it in 2001. He received 21 votes for second most among defensive ends.

Turner had the third most votes among running backs with 8, but also received one vote as a fullback. Mughelli had 13 votes, second most among fullbacks.

Also receiving votes from the Falcons were kicker Matt Bryant, running back Jason Snelling, offensive tackles Tyson Clabo and Sam Baker, as well as defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux and cornerback Brent Grimes. Bryant received 4 votes out of 50 AP voters, fifth-most among kickers. Snelling received 1 vote, placing him seventh among fullbacks. Both Clabo and Baker received a vote each, with twelve other offensive tackles receiving more votes. Babineaux also had a single vote, placing him tied for sixth among defensive tackles. Grimes had 3 votes, seventh-most among cornerbacks.

Jerious Norwood

Jay Adams of Atlanta Falcons.com reports that the Atlanta Falcons have placed running back Jerious Norwood on the injured reserve after he suffered a knee injury on the opening kickoff of the team’s matchup last weekend vs. the Arizona Cardinals. Jay Glazer of FOX Sports reported earlier today that it was a torn ACL in his right knee.

Norwood had thus far had limited usage offensively this year, with his only two carries coming for 8 yards in the season opener vs. the Steelers. He also had a reception for 9 yards in that game, and had been splitting reps with Eric Weems as the team’s kickoff returner. Injuries are nothing new for Norwood, who had only made it through a full 16-game schedule once since joining the Falcons in 2006.

To fill Norwood’s spot on the roster, the team signed running back Gartrell Johnson. Johnson was a fourth round pick with the San Diego Chargers last year, but was cut by that team at the end of camp. He was picked up by the New York Giants, and appeared in 10 games, carrying the ball 13 times for 43 yards (3.3 avg). The 5’10″ 219-pound running back is more of a power runner than the speedy Norwood. You can read about Johnson in a scouting report included in the 2009 FalcFans.com Draft Guide.

The team did manage to add some speed at the position by signing Shawnbrey McNeal to the practice squad. McNeal was another cast-off of the San Diego Chargers and was an undrafted free agent this past year. You can read a scouting report on McNeal, posted here in the forums.

In the absence of Norwood, Antone Smith will likely be elevated up the depth chart and potentially get more reps on Sundays. Depth at running back is fairly thin with the loss of Norwood. Michael Turner suffered what Mike Smith termed a non-severe groin injury during the Week 2 game vs. Arizona. Jason Snelling is expected to get a heavier dose in the offense as he did against the Cardinals.

To free up a space on the team’s eight-man practice squad, the team parted ways with middle linebacker Bear Woods.

Jason Snelling (AP)

Now it’s time to look on offense at one of the Falcons key reserves: running back Jason Snelling.

Pros: Shows good speed and burst for a player of his size and frame. Can be a dangerous runner on the second level when he can square his shoulders and run behind his pads. Shows enough power to break tackles. Is a good north-south runner that does his best work running downhill. Effective on screens because of this when he has blockers out in front of him. Has good, reliable hands as a receiver out of the backfield. Is an effective lead blocker and does a capable job in pass protection. Shows good ball security, generally covering the ball with both arms to prevent being stripped. Patient, and does a good job following his blockers. His play improved as the season wore on and seems to get better with a heavier workload. Also solid on special teams in coverage.

Cons: Not as powerful as a player his size could be. Can get stone-walled when he takes on a linebacker head on. Not as effective in short-yardage because of it. Doesn’t have great long speed to take it the distance. Not overly shifty on the second level and tends to be a very straight-line runner. Doesn’t show great vision as a runner. Lack of vision means he’s really only as productive as his blocking allows. Still needs a bit more polish in pass protection, as he’ll miss on some assignments.

2010 Outlook: Originally considered a tweener at the position, Snelling has emerged as a reliable reserve option at halfback. Coupled with his ability to line up as a lead blocker, it makes Snelling a very versatile reserve running back. He showed significant improvement last year, as a late season fill-in for an injured Michael Turner. The Falcons hope he can continue to make progress as a runner, which would do a lot to spell Turner and keep him healthy.

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Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli are entrenched as the starters, but the Falcons could see some turnover as far as depth goes. Jason Snelling had a strong finish last year, and it’s possible he could surpass Norwood as the primary backup and third down option. However, more than likely, the team will use and alternate both come the regular season to highlight their strengths and minimize their weaknesses.

The main issue at running back is if the Falcons decide they want to keep another back. Snelling’s ability to play both halfback and fullback means that the team only needs to keep four backs on the roster. But if Antone Smith or Dimitri Nance have strong preseason performances, there is a chance they could land as the fifth roster spot. Smith is more explosive, which probably gives him a slight edge due to the fact that Jerious Norwood may no longer be in the team’s long-term plans. Nance has a good combination of size and speed, and potentially projects a little better as an every-down back. Keys for both players along with their ability to tote the rock will be how they perform in pass protection and on special teams since that is likely to be their role if they make it to the regular season.