Giants Top WR Victor Cruz

There are a few questions that the Falcons must be able to answer on Sunday if they want to win their first playoff game under Mike Smith and beat the New York Giants.

1. Can the Falcons stop Victor Cruz?

The biggest potential mismatch for the Falcons in their secondary is their nickel corner on Victor Cruz. Cruz is the Giants top receiver, leading the team in catches (82), yards (1536), and touchdowns (9). The Falcons will be putting Dominique Franks in the nickel. Franks has had his moments in recent weeks, but has also had his issues working at the nickel. A notable issue was last week against the Bucs, where Franks was beat by Preston Parker for a 48-yard completion while working out of the slot. Plays like that cannot happen this week. The Falcons don’t need Franks to shut down Cruz, but just contain him similar to the Redskins did in Week 15 where he only caught 5 passes for 44 yards, which was one of the weaker performances of Cruz all year long.

2. Can the Falcons slow the Giants pass rush?

The other matchup that could cause potential problems for the Falcons is trying to slow down the Giants pass rushers: Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Osi Umenyiora. Tuck hasn’t had quite the season he is used to having with 5 sacks, but he’s still a tough matchup for any right tackle, and Tyson Clabo will have his hands full. Last time the Falcons played the Giants, Clabo gave up two pressures to Tuck. But the biggest question probably comes from the Falcons left tackle Will Svitek and whether he can face Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora. Pierre-Paul led the Gaints with 16.5. Umenyiora managed 9 sacks in 9 games, and came back in Week 17 after missing several games with an ankle injury to get a pair of sacks in a key game against the Cowboys. Svitek started strong when he first subbed in for Sam Baker at midseason, but down the stretch his play tailed off.

The Falcons are probably going to have give each of these guys a bit more help, by playing a few more times in max protection, where tight ends and backs stay in to chip and help slow those guys. Which will put more emphasis on the Falcons receivers to separate and get open.

3. Can the Falcons pound Michael Turner?

One the ways the Falcons can help slow down the Giants pass rush will be if they can effectively run the ball. Turner had a strong performance against the Bucs in Week 17, but the Bucs were one of the league’s worst run defenses. The Giants are better, but not exactly a strong in run defense. So the potential is there for the Falcons to be able to control the clock and tempo with a running game. The issue the Falcons face is that prior to the Bucs game, Turner had five pretty mundane performances, including two road games against Houston and New Orleans, where he was virtually a non-factor. That cannot be the case against the Giants, where the Falcons are going to need Turner to have success early, and be able to carry that through the rest of the game.
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This might be the hardest pick to make. At the mid-point, I chose Corey Peters as my pick. At that point in the year, he was playing his best football and looking like an impact pass rusher and playmaker. But unfortunately for Peters, the second half of the season was relatively quiet and it allowed for other people to be considered.

One obvious choice would be Sean Weatherspoon, who was picked as the defensive MVP. Weatherspoon had his moments as a rookie, but injuries and inexperience curtailed his success last year. The fact that he moved from role player last year to MVP this year, probably be default should make him this pick. But since I want to honor as many people as people, we’ll just leave him out of the running.

That could leave Harry Douglas, who went from afterthought last year to a guy that made some plays this year, particularly in the games in the middle of the year where Jones was out with injury. But unfortunately, Douglas sort of returned to being an afterthought once Jones came back from injury and was hitting his stride late in the year. So he too gets passed over.

Will Svitek would be another good pick, having stepped in and filled in for Sam Baker competently and being one of the major reasons why the Falcons were able to stabilize their ground attack and blocking up front. But as the season wore on, Svitek started to fall back to Earth a bit, so he too is out of the running.

Another good candidate would be Lawrence Sidbury, who hardly played a snap last year to finishing tied for second on the team with four sacks. Another good pick would be Dominique Franks, who also was a player that had a very limited role last year, playing on special teams. But late in the year with injuries mounting in the secondary, he was able to step in and solidify the nickel spot and seemingly improved with every single performance. But unfortunately for Sidbury and Franks both, it’s hard to pick them since while they were key contributors, their contributions were smaller due to the fact that they were role players and/or only played a smaller portion of the year.

So that brings us back to where we started with Peters as the best choice for the player that improved the most. Peters was a liability last year vs. the run, but was solid in that area this year. And his ability to make big plays and provide some pressure on the QB up the middle, coupled with the fact that he was a starter throughout the entire year makes him the best choice.

The Falcons released their injury report this week, and Sam Baker was listed as questionable after limited participation in all three days of practice. Baker missed the past three games with a back injury. Two weeks ago he was reportedly expected to miss 3-4 weeks. He has been replaced by Will Svitek in the team’s past three outings.

Wide receiver Julio Jones was also listed as questionable, despite not practicing all week due to re-aggravating a hamstring injury in last week’s loss to the Saints. Jones suffered the original injury in a Week 5 loss against the Packers, missed two games, but then returned two weeks ago to have a big game against the Colts. If Jones is unable to go on Sunday, he will be replaced by Harry Douglas who is coming off a career high performance against New Orleans.

Expected to miss a second consecutive game is William Moore (quadricep), as he also did not practice this week. James Sanders will start in place of him at strong safety.

Several other players were listed as probable for this weekend’s game against the Tennessee Titans. Harry Douglas (thigh), Ray Edwards (knee), and Antone Smith (knee) all were able to participate fully in the past two days of practice and were probable. Brent Grimes (knee) and Jason Snelling (hamstring) were both limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but participated fully in Friday’s practice. Curtis Lofton (ankle) was added to the injury report after Thursday, but also went full bore on Friday. John Abraham and Todd McClure were also included on the injury report, but only because both were held out of Wednesday’s practice for non-injury related rest. They had full participation in both Thursday and Friday’s practices.

The Titans linebacker corps is shaken up with starters Gerald McRath (hamstring) and Barrett Ruud (groin) both listed as questionable on their injury report. Both were able to practice fully on Friday. Backup linebacker Colin McCarthy (knee) is also questionable after missing the last two days of practice. Defensive end Dave Ball will miss the game with a concussion.

Coming off the Falcons bye week, Ryan and I are back to discuss the team’s upcoming matchup against the Indianapolis Colts and whether or not the Falcons victory is a foregone conclusion. We also get into a heated debate over whether the Falcons are the best team in the NFC South, and whether or not this team is headed in the right direction. Later, after both of us calm down, Ryan wants a recap of my activities during the Halloween weekend. Eventually our conversation veers into some entertainment news surrounding the headlines made by Kim Kardashian and Justin Bieber over this past week. I should note that this is the first of our episodes that will receive an explicit rating on iTunes that goes a bit beyond our usual PG-13 standards.

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The Falcons announced on Wednesday that tackle Sam Baker will miss the next three to four weeks with a back injury. The same injury that held him out of the team’s win over the Detroit Lions in Week 7. In his absence, Will Svitek got the start at left tackle. The team signed Svitek’s former Stanford teammate Kirk Chambers last week to bolster depth at the position. Chambers started three combined games as a replacement for Jason Peters at left tackle in 2007 and 2008 with the Buffalo Bills. Svitek started a pair of games for an injured Baker in 2009. Baker has had back problems before, missing 8 games due to a back injury as a rookie in 2008.

Also missing Wednesday’s practice along with Baker was defensive end John Abraham, tight end Tony Gonzalez (back), and center Todd McClure. Both Abraham and McClure were non-injury related and were held out to rest. Both players have dealt with injuries already this year. Wide receiver Julio Jones had limited participation as he’s trying to come back from a hamstring injury suffered in Week 5. Cornerback Chris Owens (concussion) was a full participant in practice. Like Jones, Owens was injured in the team’s Week 5 matchup against the Green Bay Packers and has missed their past two games.

Ryan and I are back for another episode discussing last week’s win over the Carolina Panthers, and debate how big a win it was for the Falcons going forward.  We disagree about how big a road test that the Falcons will have this week against the Detroit Lions, as Ryan is prepped to serve up a big plate of crow to me this weekend if the Falcons pull out the victory. I don’t have a lot of confidence in some of the matchups, notably Megatron and Suh going against the Falcons. Later, Ryan makes his playoff picks. We also discuss plans for the bye week, Halloween costumes, Ryan’s non-Texas leanings, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, and whether Smitty is a better coach when he’s happy or angry.

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Falcons wideout Julio Jones was listed as doubtful on Friday’s injury report for the team’s Week 7 matchup against the Detroit Lions. Jones missed last week’s game against the Carolina Panthers, after suffering a hamstring injury during the fourth quarter of the team’s loss to the Green Bay Packers the previous week. Jones did not practice at all this week and looks like he will miss a second straight game.

If Jones misses the game, he will be joined by cornerback Chris Owens, who was listed as out as he still recovers from a concussion he suffered against the Packers. Owens missed last week’s Panther game as well due to the same injury.

Four Falcon players were listed as questionable on their injury report: defensive end John Abraham (groin), offensive tackle Sam Baker (back), center Todd McClure (knee), and guard Garrett Reynolds (ankle). Abraham sat out the Packer game due to the injury, but returned last week against the Panthers. He was able to have limited participation in Thursday and Friday’s practices. If he misses the game, he’ll likely be replaced by Kroy Biermann at right defensive end. Baker missed both Wednesday and Thursday practices, but was back in limited duty on Friday. Baker suffered from durability concerns his first two years in Atlanta, but has managed to start 26 straight games without injury. If he sits out this weekend’s game, he’ll be replaced by offensive tackle Will Svitek in the starting lineup at left tackle. Svitek started twice in place of Baker during 2009. McClure has been in and out of the lineup throughout this year due to a knee injury. His backup Joe Hawley has already started three games thus far this year, pulling his last start against the Packers. Reynolds suffered his ankle injury against the Packers, but has managed to finish that game as well as start last week. Like Abraham, he sat out Wednesday’s practice, but was able to return on a limited basis each of the past two days.

Also listed on the injury repot are defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux (Knee), tight end Tony Gonzalez (elbow), safety James Sanders (hamstring), and wide receiver Roddy White (knee). Babineaux, Gonzalez, and White all participated fully in the three days of practice this week, but have been limited by their respective injuries somewhat in past weeks. Sanders missed last week’s game against the Panthers but was able to go fully in Friday’s practice.

For the Lions, running back Jahvid Best has been declared out with a concussion. Wide receiver Rashied Davis (foot) and safety Vincent Fuller (elbow) both were listed as doubtful on Friday’s injury report. Cornerback Aaron Berry (groin) and defensive end Willie Young (calf) were also listed as questionable.

NFL.com’s Jason LaCanfora cited league sources indicating that the Falcons have contingency plans in place to deal with the potential departures of free agent offensive linemen Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo, who are expected to be hot commodities on the open market if/when free agency occurs after the end of the lockout. LaCanfora also writes that the Falcons may not be big players in free agency as some sources expect with the pursuit of either Nnamdi Asomugha or top defensive ends like Ray Edwards or Charles Johnson.

Per LaCanfora, the Falcons brass may opt to play a wait and see game in regards to free agency, letting this year’s market play itself out in order to get a better foothold and grip on what to expect next off-season when things should return to normal.

It has been previously mentioned that the Falcons’ contingency plans along the offensive line include the possibility of replacing starters like Dahl and Clabo with current backups like Garrett Reynolds and Mike Johnson. Also players such as veteran tackle Will Svitek and Jose Valdez might also be in the mix to replace Clabo at right tackle.

Like the running back position, this unit could be heavily influenced by free agency. The Falcons will have to make important decisions on three of their starters: Tyson Clabo, Harvey Dahl, and Justin Blalock.

Clabo is likely to be a high priority for the team to retain. And if they do so, it will go a long way to solidify their front line and maintain some continuity. It remains to be seen whether the Falcons will prefer to keep either Dahl or Blalock, although it seems likely at least one will remain. Dahl is probably the safer bet since he appears to be a favorite of position coach Paul Boudreau.

Ideally, the Falcons will be able to keep all three players. If they are successful in achieving that goal, then competition during camp at this position won’t be particularly compelling. The most interesting battle will likely then be between Jose Valdez and Will Svitek for the swing tackle position. Valdez’s practice squad eligibility is likely to expire this season, so if the Falcons want to continue to develop him, they will probably need to do so by giving him a regular roster spot.

However, if even one of those free agents depart, it will make things a lot more interesting. If all three depart, it’s likely to be a free-for-all.

The most likely candidate to replace Blalock at left guard is Mike Johnson. He got the majority of reps there last summer, and he’d be the front runner. Johnson didn’t have a great summer a year ago, but the team was high on him when they drafted him in the third round and will give him every opportunity to win the vacant position.

His most likely competition will come in the form of Garrett Reynolds, who is also the primary reserve at right guard behind Dahl. Reynolds also adds the value of playing right tackle as well, although his primary position in inside. His chances of earning a starting job will increase if Dahl is the one that departs, although Johnson would probably be the top candidate there as well for reasons mentioned previously.

If Clabo isn’t kept, then Svitek is likely to be the front runner to replace him and he’ll be pushed by both Reynolds and Valdez. Svitek is the more known commodity and proven run blocker, making him a good fit at right tackle. Valdez is an intriguing dark horse, showcasing his superior athleticism last summer.

Left tackle Sam Baker is unlikely to be pushed in camp, as the Falcons will likely want to retain as much continuity as possible. The same goes for veteran center Todd McClure. Second-year pro Joe Hawley is his heir apparent. Hawley also garnered reps at guard last season, but probably won’t be a serious contender to become a starter there unless Johnson and/or Reynolds struggle.

The Falcons drafted Andrew Jackson to bolster depth and competition. But he’ll be hard-pressed to make his way into the likely to be nine roster spots unless at least two of the Falcons free agents depart. He is most likely to be competing for a practice squad spot, although a solid summer may convince the team to keep ten blockers instead of the typical nine.

Also on the roster is Rob Bruggeman, although he remains a long shot unless there is an injury to one of the centers. The Falcons probably will sign a few undrafted or street free agents to fill out the roster here, with all just being camp bodies competing for a chance to make the practice squad.

OT Sam Baker

I keep seeing a bunch of mocks having the Falcons take an offensive linemen in the first round of the draft, and frankly from where I’m sitting, I think the odds are very, very, very low that happens. In fact, I think the odds are fairly low that the Falcons will take an offensive lineman at any point in the draft, let alone the first round. And I’ll explain why, and much of it has to do with the labor strife the league is currently undergoing.

I’m not certain what is going to become of the CBA labor situation the rest of this week or going forward. But let’s look at both scenarios: (1) the pessimistic one where a lockout occurs and there is essentially no player movement between now and the draft and afterwards. And (2) the optimistic one in that a new CBA gets hammered out at some point in the next seven weeks before the draft and that we get some semblance of free agency and a relatively normal off-season. How does either scenario affect the Falcons offensive line situation?

We know that Tyson Clabo, Harvey Dahl, and Justin Blalock all had their contracts expire at the end of the 2010 season. The Falcons quickly were able to re-sign reserve Will Svitek last week, getting him locked up for two more seasons as a Falcon. But those three players that aren’t yet signed represent 60% of the Falcons starting lineup, and arguably the best 60%. Clabo landed a Pro Bowl bid this year, and Harvey Dahl quietly had a second solid year in a Falcon uniform. And even Justin Blalock, the player I thought going into this season was the weakest link of the front five improved his play, and arguably was our most consistent blocker over the second half of the season.

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