Last week, I promised that I would go over the Falcons Day 3 draft plans. But of course news and rumors picked up steam that the Falcons were planning on moving up via trade in the draft. I do think the two issues are somewhat related, which I will delve into later. But for now, let’s talk about the Falcons potential third day draft possibilities.

The meat of the Falcons draft lies on the third day of the draft, where rounds four through seven will be selected. The Falcons hold eight of their eleven total picks during this stretch of the draft. The third day of the draft is typically where teams try to build their depth. A few players will emerge as starters, but they are few and far between.

Using previously discussed draft grades, only 14 of the 153 players selected in the final four rounds in 2008 earned C grades or higher (i.e. became solid starters after five seasons). That number is 22 out of 156 players from the 2007 class. In 2008, five of those 14 starters were fourth rounders, while that number was 12 in 2007.

Because the Falcons draft for need, they are going to lean towards targeting players that have a high probability of making the roster. Basically operating under a simple principle that there’s no way you can help the team if you don’t make it. So to determine what areas and positions the Falcons might target on the third day of the draft, you have to take a closer look at the team’s current roster. Here’s a quick breakdown position by position, with the number in parentheses indicating the current number of players at the position that have a strong probability of making the final roster:
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The Falcons are picking thirtieth in the 2013 draft, and rumors continue to gain momentum that the team is looking to move up and get an earlier pick. D. Orlando Ledbetter of the AJC recently discussed the possibility of the Falcons moving up in the first round based off a year-old study of Falcons drafts under GM Thomas Dimitroff. Yesterday, SI.com’s Peter King and then today, CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, cite sources that suggest the Falcons desires to trade up are real.

The Falcons last went through a blockbuster trade-up in the first round in 2011, where they moved up 21 spots to select wide receiver Julio Jones. The team sent their first round pick (27th overall), second and fourth round picks in the 2011 draft along with first and fourth round picks in the 2012 draft to Cleveland in exchange for the sixth overall selection. In 2012, the Falcons did not trade up in the draft, however they did move back seven spots in the third round via a trade with Baltimore.

La Canfora reports that the Falcons are eyeing either Oregon defensive end Dion Jordan or Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner, according to his sources. Both have been projected to be potential Top 5 picks in the majority of mock drafts.

Today during an hour-long press conference, Dimitroff indicated that the team was open to maneuvering in the draft, whether that mean moving up or down.

Last week ended well for the Falcons as they were able to kick off the legal tampering period by re-signing two free agents. One of which, in William Moore, was their biggest priority of the off-season in terms of keeping.

Things also took a positive spin on Sunday where reports indicated that Tony Gonzalez is set to return. And while Moore was their biggest priority re-signing, Gonzalez is likely the biggest difference maker they could add or retain. I honestly struggle to see how the Falcons will contend for a title with Gonzalez’s presence in the offense. His presence on the inside and virtually unstoppability on third down work in perfect conjunction with the playmaking abilities of Julio Jones and Roddy White on the outside. Remove Gonzalez from the equation, and while the Falcons would still be difficult to defend, it’s not an insurmountable feat.

Besides Gonzalez, the thing that could potentially impact the Falcons’ offense the most is improving their running game. And that would likely take a really good running back to do that given the likelihood that there won’t be major changes to the offensive line in 2013. And given the current rumors that the Falcons might be pursuing Steven Jackson as their new starter doesn’t particularly excite me in regards to any major improvements the ground attack could make this year.

Now I could question the reliability of these so-called “sources close to Gonzalez,” but given these sources are saying things that fans like myself want to hear, I won’t.

Hopefully this week the Falcons will get even more good news since Sam Baker and Brent Grimes could be the next dominoes to fall.

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With all the talk about Darrelle Revis being traded from the New York Jets, some of the talk has centered around his injury. Revis tore his ACL early last season, and the questions surrounding that injury have been cited by many experts as a major hurdle to any trade. Teams won’t be willing to give up the compensation likely to be required (at least one first round pick) without being 100% certain that the knee is healthy. Now obviously, there are ways around that. Before any trade can be finalized, the player must pass a physical. And if a team acquired Revis and had misgivings about his rehab, they could fail him and recoup their traded assets. But then throw in the probability that Revis will demand to be one of if not the highest paid defender in the league will deter a lot of folks. That’s a lot of money to spend on a corner, even one as good as Revis.

It’s why I’m going to ape what many of the talking heads are saying in that I don’t believe Revis will be traded between now and the draft in late April. There will be constant talk of it; rumors about teams contacting the Jets and where Revis’s best fits may lie. But I believe they will be nothing more than rumors and media-induced hype. The Jets are in New York after all, and there’s got to be something to talk about with them for the next six months. Last spring they had Tebow, this year it will be a Revis trade.

I think once we get into training camp, that’s when potential Revis trade talks might pick up in earnest. If he shows himself to be healthy during the preseason, and then gets off to a good start in September, then I think you’ll start to hear trade speculation heat up. A contender that has some struggles in coverage may be tempted to give up that first round pick for Revis at that point as a midseason boost to get over the hump. I do believe at that point, the Falcons could become a legitimate contender. But a lot of that will depend on the status of Brent Grimes, and the play of any other corners on the Falcons roster.

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The Falcons did what they needed to do on Sunday. I just hope they don’t shut it down next week against the 49ers now that they’ve finally won a playoff game. They haven’t reached the summit of the mountaintop, that will occur with a win next week. And even when you get to the top of that peak, you emerge to see a second even taller peak off in the distance that represents winning the Super Bowl. Let’s hope that Mike Smith has the Falcons prepped with a sherpa and some climbing gear.

My initial reaction for how the Falcons match up against the 49ers is not very promising. The 49ers present many of the same challenges as the Seahawks, but only better. They won’t be missing Chris Clemons like Seattle was, as Justin Smith and Aldon Smith will likely be playing and near full strength. They have many more dangerous weapons on offense that require a lot more man coverage. The Falcons looked to be playing a lot of zone against Seattle in order to keep all of their eyes on Wilson and his scrambling ability. That was one of the reasons why guys like Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, and Zach Freakin’ Miller were wide open throughout the day. I don’t think the Falcons can try to get away with what against the likes Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss, Vernon Davis, etc. Which means that the front line has to be more disciplined and do a better job of trying to contain Kaepernick on the read-option. That appeared to be the Achilles Heel of the Packers on Saturday night, as they did not seem prepared for it or equipped to play it. That won’t be an excuse for the Falcons with a week to prepare and that they have perhaps seen more read-option than any other defense this year. Getting John Abraham back healthy will be key, and if the Falcons plan on winning and containing the 49ers explosive offense, they will need him to play all four quarters.

However, I do like the fact that Kaepernick really struggled against the noise in Seattle in Week 16. Similar to Wilson, it appears Kaepernick is a much different QB on the road. I also like the fact that this will be Harbaugh’s first road playoff game. Will that matter that much? Probably not, but it at least gives me some hope that the 49ers won’t be that sharp, which I think might be necessary if the Falcons are going to pull the upset. And let’s not be naive here, it will be an upset if the Falcons win. The line for that game opened up with the 49ers being a 3-point favorite. The 49ers have the capacity to utterly dominate the Falcons in the trenches. It’s going to be a fun week as I try to dig deep to find flaws that can be exploited by the Falcons in this matchup.

In order for the Falcons to win, I think it has to be similar to yesterday’s game, where the Falcons get an early lead. But unlike against the Seahawks, the Falcons can’t take their foot off the pedal.

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This is the port in the summer where people are talking about trading players, and I just wanted to quickly go over some Falcon players that probably have the most trade value. Obviously, a player like Roddy White would have huge trade value, but the Falcons won’t trade him. I’m looking more at guys that appear to be somewhat expendable and have an outside shot that it could happen if a phone call was made.

Most trades at this point in time involve late round picks and roster bubble players. The Vontae Davis trade withstanding, it’s rare a team will part ways with their top corner who is only in his third year in the league. The normal trade at this point in time is what the Colts did earlier when they acquired Josh Gordy from St. Louis. Most of these trades are for conditional picks, meaning that if said player makes the new team’s roster or plays a certain amount of games in the upcoming season, compensation will be exchanged. If not, then nothing is lost.

I’ll start with Michael Turner, not because I think he’ll be traded or should be traded, but just because in the dark reaches of an alley, there are a few Falcon fans conspiring about it. Turner does not have a ton of trade value. I think it would be possible for the Falcons to get a conditional fifth or sixth round pick at this point in time for Turner, potentially based off how many rushing yards he has this season. But that’s probably about it. That really is not worth it.

Jason Snelling is another player that could be shopped most years, but his injury as well as the question marks that the Falcons have at fullback probably placed in the non-expendable category. Teams don’t normally trade for injured players, and when they do it rarely turns in their favor. (see Otah, Jeff)

Also on offense, players that could be parted ways with include some of their backup offensive linemen. Namely Andrew Jackson, Joe Hawley, and Mike Johnson. Hawley and Johnson probably have better value on the market namely because Hawley has gotten extensive reps last year and Johnson was a higher round pick that many people liked coming out of Alabama. A team like Dallas, who has been hurting at a position like center could probably be interested in a player like Hawley for a possible sixth or seventh rounder. Johnson probably could fetch the same price, if a team was looking for a guy that can add depth at guard or tackle.

On the defensive line, the two players that are probably the easiest to trade would be Kroy Biermann and Vance Walker. I would be shocked if the Falcons would trade Biermann because he seems to be nestled atop their depth chart as the team’s nickel pass rusher, replacing Ray Edwards. But given the fact that they still would have Edwards and Lawrence Sidbury to fill that role, and could still develop Jonathan Massaquoi and/or Cliff Matthews as depth, it would not be crazy if the Falcons did shop Biermann for a late round pick. Walker’s experience means that a team hurting for a run-stopping one-gap tackle could be enticed to give up a seventh rounder.

If the Falcons were confident in the return abilities of Harry Douglas on punts, it could potentially mean that Dominique Franks could be shopped. If a team was really hurting for depth at cornerback, they might also look at Chris Owens, assuming he’s fully recovered from his hamstring injury. The Falcons could presumably opt to deal one of them because of the other’s presence.

I don’t think any of these players should be traded or will be traded, but it always interesting to see what possibilities are out there. A lot of those players I mentioned, getting just a conditional sixth or seventh round pick doesn’t seem like a fair trade for the Falcons. Ultimately the depth many of those guys provide and the roles they fill are worth me in return than a draft pick that ultimately will just be a career backup and special teamer in all likelihood. Biermann is a prime example of this. He’s a pulled muscle away from starting a bunch of games this year and helping keep the pass rush from evaporating. No offense, but that right there is worth more than drafting another Charles Mitchell or Wilrey Fontenot.

Yesterday, news broke that Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew following some inflammatory comments by Jaguars owner Shahid Khan, was open to a trade. And it caused an uproar, as well it should because MJD as he is affectionately known, is the Jaguars best player and it made a lingering holdout into a major drama.

And as is often the case, dots began to be connected for the possibility that if MJD was traded, he could find his way north from Jacksonville to Atlanta. On one hand, it makes sense. His former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is here, and current head coach Mike Smith along with several other assistants currently in Atlanta were also in Jacksonville in 2006 when he was first drafted.

Much of the off-season talk in Atlanta has centered around whether or not Michael Turner is past his prime. I for one, fall in line as one of those people that believe Turner is well on the downside of his career. Getting a player like MJD, the league’s top rusher from a year ago certainly would be an upgrade at the running back position. MJD is younger than Turner as well as more explosive and versatile.

Even if you can get past the fantasy that the Jaguars would trade MJD, which is an extremely high hurdle to jump. Even as of this morning, the MJD camp is backing off their trade demands simply because they know they’re not going to get them. Jacksonville is not going to trade their best player. But you can never say never, so let’s assume that Jones-Drew is being shopped. It still doesn’t make too much sense for the Falcons.

Firstly, while Jones-Drew is younger than Turner by about 3 years, they have nearly identical career workloads as far as rushing attempts go, with MJD having 67 more than Turner. When counting carries up until the age of 27, Jones is fairly high on the list particularly for modern running backs. Among players drafted in the past decade, he’s only exceeded by Steven Jackson in terms of touches before the age of 28. The point being MJD is not as spry a 27 as most.

He had knee surgery prior to 2011. Clearly, his performance last year showed that he suffered no major ill effects from that. But what is interesting is throughout the 2011 season, MJD was limited in most of the Jaguars’ Wednesday practices. It was likely to keep him well-rested to play down the stretch (where an ankle injury bothered him). It’s a practice that the Falcons do as well, but largely with their 30+ year old veterans like Tony Gonzalez, Todd McClure, and John Abraham. It’s a red flag that indicates that his body may be breaking down sooner rather than later.

The other main issue is the price tag, both when it comes to what the Falcons would need to give up to secure MJD from Jacksonville, as well as any extension he would want. The reason this holdout began is because he wants a raise. And he likely wants to be among the highest paid running backs in the league, after seeing the big extensions signed by Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, etc. over the past year or so. Not only would the Falcons have to part ways with a high round pick, but then also pay a high premium in salary to secure MJD.

The Falcons are moving towards a pass-first offense, as they should. Centering the offense around Matt Ryan in the hopes it elevates his game is the team’s best chance to win a championship in the immediate future. So going out and giving up what they would need to get MJD doesn’t make much sense in that context. Like it has become the case in most NFL cities, the running back is becoming a complementary position in Atlanta. And there’s no need to ship a first or second round pick plus pay $40-50 million to a complementary player, even one as capable as MJD.

The bottom line is that MJD would be a short-term solution that requires long-term commitment. The Falcons have given away far too many premium picks over the past three drafts to merit doing it a fourth year in a row, especially for a player that is on the verge of hitting the same wall that many accuse Turner to be currently parked in front of.

The Falcons made a trade with the Baltimore Ravens to move back seven spots in the third round. The Falcons swapped the 84th overall pick for the Ravens’ 91st overall pick, and picked up Baltimore’s 5th round (164th overall) in exchange.

Albert Breer of NFL.com reports that the Falcons have agreed to a three-year $18.5 million contract with Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel, and subsequently agreed to send a sixth round pick to the Eagles in exchange for him. UPDATE: D. Orlando Ledbetter of the AJC tweets that the Falcons in fact gave up a seventh round pick, not their sixth round pick. The Eagles receive the 229nd overall pick in the 2012 draft.

Samuel had two years left on his contract with the Eagles in which he would have been paid $21.5 million, but in order to make the trade happen with the Falcons, restructured to reduce that figure to $18.5 million, and add a third year to make him signed through 2014 with Atlanta. Samuel is widely viewed as one of the top corners in the NFL, leading the league over the past six seasons with 39 combined interceptions. In 14 games with the Eagles in 2011, he had 3 interceptions and 10 pass breakups, his lowest totals for each since 2004. In 2003, Samuel was a fourth round pick of the New England Patriots. He played five seasons with the Patriots before signing a six-year, $56 million deal with the Eagles prior to the 2008 season. Samuel is a four-time Pro Bowler, making the squad for four consecutive years (2007-10) and led the league in interceptions in 2006 and 2009.

This trade now leaves the Falcons with only five picks for this upcoming draft. The team already dealt their first and fourth round picks as part of last year’s Julio Jones trade, leaving them with only four of their original 2012 draft picks. They also received a compensatory seventh round choice a month ago.

The team announced today that cornerback Brent Grimes signed his one-year franchise tender today. Grimes will now have the $10.281 million salary he is slated to receive this year fully guaranteed as a result.

Grimes is coming off two rock-solid seasons, including a Pro Bowl appearance following 2010. He was plagued by a knee injury late this past season, causing him to miss 4 games. The team placed the franchise tag on Grimes just prior to the start of free agency in March when long-term contract talks broke down.

The news of Grimes signing the tender is interesting given that news broke this morning per FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer that the Falcons had entered trade talks with the Philadelphia Eagles over cornerback Asante Samuel. Samuel, who turned 31 in January, is expected to be dealt prior to this Thursday’s draft according to reports. The Eagles made big acquisitions for cornerbacks last summer in acquiring Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and rumors have been rampant ever since that Samuel was on his way out. Samuel is due $21.5 million over the next two seasons he is under contract, but it is likely a deal for him won’t be struck until he reduces that number. Samuel is still widely considered one of the top corners in the league. He has collected 19 interceptions in the past three seasons, and 39 in the past six seasons, both being the highest in the league in their respective spans. He has a career total of 45 of nine seasons, the last four with the Eagles after five with the New England Patriots where he collected two Super Bowl rings.

How Grimes re-signing impacts any potential trade discussions is unknown. It’s possible their negotiations with the Eagles was meant to be leverage to get Grimes to sign on the dotted line, and now potential trade discussions are dead. Or it’s possible that a Samuel trade is still on the table.

The good people at The Falcoholic provide one of the best Falcon blogs out there. Everyday you can read something interesting in order to get your daily Falcons fix. So this is by no means meant to slight that site or the people that write for them.

But recently, one of their writers, one Caleb Rutherford wrote an interesting piece about Julio Jones trade, which has been a topic of division among the Falcon fan base since the day it was done. Some view that the Falcons gave up too much. Others view that the trade was well worth it. And probably even more, no longer care and just have learned to live with it. I fall into the former group.

One of the problems with disliking the trade for Julio Jones is that you are accused of disliking the player that is Julio Jones. And for me, that coudln’t be further from the truth. I like Julio Jones the player. I like him a lot. But at the same time, I’m not going to make him out to be bigger or better than he actually is. I think Julio Jones is going to become a very good NFL player and one of the better receivers in the NFL over the next several years. But even if that occurs, I still do not think the trade was worth what the Falcons gave up.

One of the problems I have with Mr. Rutherford’s article is that some of the arguments he made supporting the trade I think are misleading if not outright false.

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